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BBF Progressive HoF Election: 2016

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  • #16
    Originally posted by 1905 Giants View Post
    During his 4 year peak from '82-'85 he averaged 7.3 WAR, a 148 ERA+, and 16 wins.
    Fangraphs doesn't rate him as highly in terms of WAR during that stretch as bb-ref.com does. It was a solid and consistent peak, but I wouldn't call it dominant.
    RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Ace Venom View Post
      Fangraphs doesn't rate him as highly in terms of WAR during that stretch as bb-ref.com does. It was a solid and consistent peak, but I wouldn't call it dominant.
      That is because Fangraphs assumes he had no BABIP skill, even though he was well above average at it almost every year. At a career level with a large sample size of data where we know about a pitcher's BABIP skill ( if they have any) Bbref is much better than FG.
      1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

      1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

      1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


      The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
      The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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      • #18
        ^ Matt, what do you think about Mark McGwire?
        "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

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        • #19
          I don't deduct for PED use as of now, so I take his numbers at face value, right or wrong. With him, i am very skeptical if he would have even played into his 30's without them due to his injuries. So of all of the PED guys, i am the most leery of him.
          1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

          1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

          1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


          The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
          The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

          Comment


          • #20
            I continued my "big ballot" voting in this project and went with the following:

            Albert Belle
            David Cone
            Carlos Delgado
            John Franco
            Vladimir Guerrero
            Trevor Hoffman
            Kenny Lofton
            Fred McGriff
            Mark McGwire
            John Olerud
            Rafael Palmeiro
            Manny Ramirez
            Ivan Rodriguez
            Gary Sheffield
            Lee Smith
            Sammy Sosa
            Billy Wagner
            Larry Walker
            Bernie Williams

            Comment


            • #21
              David Cone
              Vladimir Guerrero
              Fred McGriff
              Ivan Rodriguez
              Larry Walker
              Great pitching always beat great hitting. Clutch hitting always beat great pitching.

              Comment


              • #22
                I'm glad to see plenty of participation here. I'd like to try to get the VC back together or a new version of the VC for the next round. Two years removed both in terms of real time and project time seems like a good time to revisit some candidates. One of the fun things about this project was all the discussion. So to get the spirit of that back, I'm going to talk about one of the candidates on this ballot.

                For those of you voting for McGwire, but are not voting for McGriff, I offer up a case for him. If you're not voting for Mark McGwire due to his steroid connections, I recommend you take another look at McGriff. Much of the case for McGwire revolves around his ability to hit home runs. This is reflected in McGwire's record AB/HR ratio, his rookie season home run record, hitting 70 home runs in 1998, and hitting over 500 home runs for his career. Indeed, he would have been inducted long ago if not for the scarlet S. And for those of you not voting for McGwire for that reason, that is perfectly fair.

                But if you are looking for a first baseman to vote for, Fred McGriff should be on your ballot for a number of reasons. Simply falling seven home runs short of 500 career home runs should not be the sole reason for dismissal. And once we assign strike credit (which I'll discuss later), we see he would be a good fit based on the standards this project set. Here are some facts about McGriff.

                During his peak years (1988-1994), hit 242 home runs, had a .390 OBP, slugged .545, had a 155 OPS+, and compiled (according to bb-ref.com) a 35.4 WAR. That's averaging just over 5.0 WAR per season for 7 years. Also note he had an AB/HR ratio of 15.22. His numbers would look even more impressive if not for the 1994-95 players' strike, which began during the final year of what could be considered his peak. He still managed 30+ home run seasons three more times in his career.

                Quite often, McGriff gets remembered as someone who hung around too long to get 500 career home runs. I argue he should have had them. The 1994-95 players' strike, if had not occurred, would have put him over the top. A lot gets made of Tony Gwynn missing the chance to hit .400 during the 1994 season, but what's missed is McGriff was having one of the best seasons of his career at the end of his peak. He was hitting a home run every 12.47 at bats and he was on pace for a 40+ home run season. He was also hitting a double for every 16.96 (roughly 17) at bats, which created more run opportunities for the Braves. He certainly had a shot at another 5.0+ WAR season.

                McGriff played every game of the strike-shortened 1995 season, but he was not the same player. He still hit 27 home runs that season with a worse AB/HR ratio (19.56). It's not outside the realm of possibility that he could have hit 30 that year, but that's a much tougher call than predicting 40 or more in 1994. But say the strike never happened and his averages more or less hold up for the rest of the season. If McGriff hits a home run in about every 12.5 at bats and you predict something on the range of 550 at bats for the season, he would have finished with 44 home runs that season. Even if that ratio fluctuated to be slightly higher, he still finishes with more than 40 home runs for the 1994 season. That's a possible 7 to 10 home run swing in 1994. That puts him at 500 or more home runs for his career. Tacking on an extra 2 from the 1995 season wouldn't make a huge difference in his totals.

                I do realize most of you will treat his numbers at face value and look at the final counting numbers. But what we have is a player who fits in even without strike credit. Fangraphs rates McGriff as a 57.2 WAR player. Even for all his home runs, Mark McGwire is only rated at 66.3 WAR by Fangraphs. BB-ref rates McGriff at a 52.6 WAR player while McGwire is a 62.0 WAR player. With all the contoversy over McGwire, I recommend taking another look at McGriff as a candidate.
                RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).

                Comment


                • #23
                  It's great to see lots of people voting here!

                  Anyone into this project, please also consider this one:

                  http://www.baseball-fever.com/showth...lection-(1972)

                  It is a great project that would definitely benefit from more participation.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Ivan Rodriguez
                    Fred McGriff
                    Vlad Guerrero
                    Trevor Hoffman

                    It is tough for me to vote for a relief pitcher for the Hall, but now that the precedents have been set, Hoffman is a shoo-in. I still believe that we have to be demanding over the Hall on relievers, and so I do not include one of my fantasy league stars (when I played that) in Billy Wagner. Hoffman would be the very same gold standard that Mo Rivera is today, without Mo Rivera around to discuss. He was on the West Coast, and so we forget him too easily.

                    Ace Venom stated everything I would have to say over McGriff in AV's last two paragraphs. When a ballplayer is the type of guy who shows up to play and stays away from microphones because he'd rather just play, then we forget him easily too.

                    Vlad Guerrero and Ivan Rodriguez had careers which should defend themselves.

                    Side note: For some reason, Hershiser and Saberhagen had very similar careers, and have similar credentials, IMO. They were both dominant ace pitchers, although Saberhagen might have been a tad more inconsistent. I can't include one without the other, and the history of the majors is littered with the wreckage of arm and shoulder injuries to pitchers which kept pitchers out of the Hall. Making the Hall is still more dependent upon career health and longevity as opposed to peak value, with exceptions to Addie Joss, Koufax, Dizzy Dean and a few others. Pitchers have already been excused on the mound with pitch limits in this era, and so I won't make it easy for them when I crunch their numbers.
                    Catfish Hunter, RIP. Mark Fidrych, RIP. Skip Caray, RIP. Tony Gwynn, #19, RIP

                    A fanatic is someone who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. -- Winston Churchill. (Please take note that I've recently become aware of how this quote applies to a certain US president. This is a coincidence, and the quote was first added to this signature too far back to remember when).

                    Experience is the hardest teacher. She gives the test first and the lesson later. -- Dan Quisenberry.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Crap....I can't edit my vote...I left off Vlad
                      sigpic
                      World Champions: 1919, 1940, 1975, 1976, 1990
                      NL Champions: 1919, 1939, 1940, 1961, 1970, 1972, 1975, 1976, 1990
                      NL Western Division Champions: 1970, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1976, *1981, 1990
                      NL Central Division Champions: *1994, 1995, 2010, 2012

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                      • #26
                        I'll keep it stuck until the election ends on Tuesday.
                        Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                        Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                        A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Nutt View Post
                          Crap....I can't edit my vote...I left off Vlad
                          I added one to Guerrero's total for you.
                          Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                          Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                          A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            This election is closed. We elected three new members: Vladimir Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez, and Larry Walker. Guerrero should be the last member enshrined as a Montreal Expo while Walker becomes the first enshrined player to play primarily for the Colorado Rockies. I'm planning to run 2017 VC and contributors elections next. These are old members I've seen participate here.

                            Ace Venom
                            Cowtipper
                            jalbright
                            jjpm74
                            PVNICK
                            Captain Cold Nose

                            This is clearly not enough to have a good quorum for elections. I'd like at least 10 members, though 12 would certainly be nicer.
                            RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).

                            Comment

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