Has 500 HRs lost it's luster?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I for one am tired of hearing that hitting 500 HRs has lust it's luster because so many players might hit 500 HRs in the future. The actual facts do NOT bare this out. So far only five players that either played the bulk of their careers or started their careers in the 1990s have hit over 500 HRs (This discounts Eddie Murray, a mostly 1980s player):

Barry Bonds
Sammy Sosa
Ken Griffey ,Jr.
Rafael Palmeiro
Mark McGwire

Right now I see three other current players with at least a fair chance at 500 HRs; A-Rod, Manny, and Sheffield and maybe Thome. Given their ages and injuries, I believe that Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell will fall short by a confortable margin

Now, lets contrast this with players that began their careers in the 1950s. EIGHT players who began their careers in the 1950s hit over 500 HRs:

Willie Mays (1951)
Mickey Mantle (1951)
Eddie Matthews (1952)
Ernie Banks (1953)
Hank Aaron (1954)
Harmon Killebrew (1954)
Frank Robinson (1956)
Willie McCovey (1959)

Seven of the eight are grouped within five years and six of the eight are grouped within three years. Given that there were far fewer teams in the 1950s-60s, doesn't it seem that hitting 500 HRs was easier for the 1950s guys?

[Ubiquitous]

I would say the 50's (or I should say the players that played in the 60's) guys are the ones that created the club in the first place. Before that you have what 3 or 4 guys above 500? Not to mention that before 69 and the MAc Encyclopedia most people didn't know the stats or probably really care about them all that much. Sure you could get your hands on the bare essentials but I wonder how many people actually knew the stats? Ted Williams had to have a guy research it for him, so I wonder about the common man.

Anyway clubs are a way of linking people together and excluding others. The 500 club had all these players that for the most part are revered as gods, now some of the riff-raff is getting in and that causes problems for people. You don't want a Jose Canseco or a Dave Kingman rubbing elbows with Willie Mays and Mike Schmidt. You solve that by having a 500 club and presto those players disappear. But like I said due to the changes they are back in and it causes problems because they can't change the club and still keep the greats in. you can't raise the bar to 600 home runs because then you lose all the greats and probably keep most of the players you wanted to exclude.

[Barnstormer]

If you're talking about active guys who at least have a "decent" chance, I think your list is a little short.

But it's a great question. To be fair, we can just look at players who started in the 90s (no Bonds, Sosa, Sheff, Pujols) who have reached or have a decent chance at 500:

1991 Jim Thome, Bagwell
1992: Mike Piazza
1993: Banner year -- Man Ram, J. Edmonds (long shot but not zero shot for 500), Chipper Jones, Shawn Green, Carlos Delgado.
1994: A-Rod
1995: Jason Giambi - 2005 AL Comeback Player of the Year, still only 34, not done yet!
1996: Andruw Jones, Vladimir Guerrero
1997: Todd Helton (possible, still a ways to go), David Ortiz

I won't even count 98 or 99, though there are a few who started in those years who are easily on track for 500 (Troy Glaus, Lance Berkman, Soriano).

So you have 14 possibles, half of them almost sure things, in a 7 year span. Add those who started in the late 80s that you mentioned (Bonds, Sosa, Mac, Raffy, Junior, Sheff), and you have a situation where by 2010, at least half of the 500-HR list will be players who hit their 500th after 1995. In other words the list will have doubled between 1995 and 2010.

I'd say this qualifies as a kind of a "bubble".

[Honus Wagner Rules]

If you're talking about active guys who at least have a "decent" chance, I think your list is a little short.

But it's a great question. To be fair, we can just look at players who started in the 90s (no Bonds, Sosa, Sheff, Pujols) who have reached or have a decent chance at 500:

Bagwell and Thomas will not make it both need more than 50 HR both will be 37 next season. Given their injuries I say no way.

Piazza is a catcher and has begun a severe decline phase. He has 397 HRs through age 36. He won't make it.

Manny will make it for sure if healthy

Chipper Jones has 331 thorigh age 33. Iffy at best given his injuries plus he only hit 21 HRs in 2005.

Edmonds has 331 HRs through age 35. He won't make it.

Giambi has only 313 and will be 35 next season. With no defensive value and his body type he won't even come close to 500 HRs.

Guerrero will make it if he stays healthy.

Andruw Jones has a chance if his 51 HR season is a real power increase. More likely it is a fluke. But he has over 300 HRs at age 28 so he has a strong chance at 500 HRs.

Todd Helton has 271 Hrs through age 31. Not a good chance.

Davis Ortiz has 177 Hrs though age 29. No chance.

Glaus, Soriano, and Berkman, way to soon to say anything. Berkman only has 180 HRs through age 29. Not a real good chance. Soriano won't make it. He only has 162 HRs though age 29. Glaus has 219 Hrs through age 29. I doubt he'll make it.

Of the players you listed I only consider Andrew Jones, Vlad, and and Manny as strong candidates for 500 HRs. Even if all three do make it that's be eight total 500 HR guys but with many more teams than the number of teams in the 1950s. Also the 1950s group is grouped within eight seasons. Bonds debuted in 1986 so you're covering more seasons.

For me a player has a "good" chance for 500 HRs if they have about 280 HRs by age 30.

[Ubiquitous]

I would agree with most of that. Hard to see Bagwell with his shoulder problems and age getting to 500 now. Thomas well he can't stay healthy.

I think the only one right now that has a legit shot is Pujols for youth that is.

I think Sheffield, Ramirez, Arod, Vlad, and possibly Delgado will make it as well.


Hey anyone else notice that BRef has already got the 2005 season up? Probably the fastest I have ever seen them update. That probably means the LAhman database has updated as well.

[Barnstormer]

OK, I agree about Giambi, but still think Chipper and Helton have a 50/50 chance (Helton's HR declined this season, we'll have to see if this is a permanent decline).

While Big Hurt is probably just about done, I think Bagwell has 50 more in him.

Papi is a late bloomer but has had two monster years and is still in his prime - he would need to average 40 HRs for the next 8 seasons, or 33 for the next 10, a long shot perhaps but not impossible.

Two people I named who you didn't address were Shawn Green (303 HR through age 32, never gets injured) and especially Carlos Delgado (369 HR through age 33, also durable). I think the odds are that they will make it.

I'd be interested to see what other people think - maybe start a "who will reach 500" poll?

[Ubiquitous]

Shawn Greens home run total last 3 years, 19, 28, 22. Shawn Green for the most part has played the last several years hurt, his shoulder has been bothering him for a few years now, which is why they moved him to first in 2004. Quite possibly it has never healed right thus sapping his power. I don't know but his power output has dropped tremendously.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

OK, I agree about Giambi, but still think Chipper and Helton have a 50/50 chance (Helton's HR declined this season, we'll have to see if this is a permanent decline).

With Chipper I'm on on the fence. If he can get healthy and have a few more 35-40 HR seasons then he has a good chance. Delgado has a very good chance but playing in Florida will hurt him.

[Blackout]

thanks to steroids 500 is no longer a magical number

[digglahhh]

I think seasonal homerun totals take a greater hit in this era. To get to 500, you need a lot of longevity and consistency. As it stands now, I don't see too many guys reaching 500 who I don't deem Hall worthy.

Of the previous list I see A-Rod, Manny and Vlad as strong candidates, and easy HOFers.

The Joneses have solid shots and are probably HOF material as well.

Sheff has a good shot too

I can't really make heads or tails of Helton now, we have to see which Helton suits up next year. Although, I'd say if you play most of your career in Colorado, I'd like to see more than 500 to merit enshrinement.

[Chisox]

While Big Hurt is probably just about done, I think Bagwell has 50 more in him.

I think you've got that backwards. Bagwell said a couple years ago that he would retire after 2006 due to his shoulder. Thomas's power numbers are there, so I think he'll make it, unless he desides to retire early. With the exception of BA, his rate stats have been around his careers since 2001. From 2001-2004 Thomas averaged 23 HR/Seas, or 92 total, in 344AB (.067) and 98 G a seas. He hit 12 HR in only 34G and 105AB in 2005 or a % of .114

[rainout]

thanks to steroids 500 is no longer a magical number

Instead of just spewing out garbage without thinking, why don't you take the time to read the first post and figure out what his point is?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

The point I was trying to make was with all the bluster about so many guys that might hit 500 HRs the current generation may not have as many 500 HR hitters as the 1950s generation. Going into the 1951 season there were only three members of the 500 HR club, Ruth, Foxx, and Ott (Williams was nine years away from his 500th HR). Then the 1950s generation added eight players who hit their 500th HRs from the late 1960s to the mid 1970s. So far the current generation has five 500 HR players with three more with stong chances (A-Rod, Manny, and Sheffield). So why does this generation get "ridiculed' with all the "phony" 500 HR guys while the 1950s guys get immortalized?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I would say the 50's (or I should say the players that played in the 60's) guys are the ones that created the club in the first place. Before that you have what 3 or 4 guys above 500? Not to mention that before 69 and the MAc Encyclopedia most people didn't know the stats or probably really care about them all that much. Sure you could get your hands on the bare essentials but I wonder how many people actually knew the stats? Ted Williams had to have a guy research it for him, so I wonder about the common man.

Good point. Would Killebrew and Banks be considered "riff-raff" compared to Mays, Aaron, and Robinson?

[Blackout]

Instead of just spewing out garbage without thinking, why don't you take the time to read the first post and figure out what his point is?

looks like somebodies suffering from roid rage themselves huh

what a bitch