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  • #16
    RE: All-Time leader in pitches

    [updated:LAST EDITED ON Apr-13-02 AT 00:19 AM (EDT)]I raised and lower because like I said earlier the two numbers I came up with were rough numbers based on two players who were somewhat similar to the two players in question. I raised Nolan Ryan average pitches by .2 because Ryans stike out ratio is almost double Witts but every thing else is close. I used maddux for Young because there hits allowed are close and walks are close but Maddux had a better strike out ratio. That is why I lowered it by .3. Could I have lowered it by .2 to make it even? Yeah but who wants to multiply by 3.1? We are not trying to send a man to the moon, I am simply trying to show the possibility that somebody else besides Cy Young could have thrown more pitches. Do I think somebody else did? No, not really. And here is why. Cy Young in his career gave up over 1000 unearned runs. Which meant that a lot of batters he faced are not listed on his stat line. After all if an error happens no hit is issued on his stat line. So in all probability there is probably another 1000 to 2000 batters we have not counted yet.

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    • #17
      RE: All-Time leader in pitches

      There's one point that I'm wondering if you're taking into account: For several years walks were counted as hits (hence Cap Anson's debate over 3000 hit club membership). Were the pitchers credited with having given up a hit when the walked someone those years, or was it still a Base on Balls? I believe Young pitched in that era... it might be worth checking out.

      Having done no statistical referencing, I put my money on Young having thrown the most pitches just by sheer number of innings pitched.

      Also, have you accounted for foul balls?
      ciamele

      "So I pick up the ball and throw it to Naturally?"

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      • #18
        RE: All-Time leader in pitches

        You showed both of us up! At least, I didn't think of foul balls
        after two strikes.

        Only 1887 counted bb's as hits, Young started pitching in 1890.
        pb::

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        • #19
          RE: All-Time leader in pitches

          [updated:LAST EDITED ON Apr-13-02 AT 00:19 AM (EDT)]By using the two modern players pitches totals we have accounted for foul balls which get counted in there totals.

          Though one problem is that for Cy Youngs first 3 seasons a foul bunt wasn't charged a strike, and it wasn't until 1901 that a foul ball was called a stike. Though a foul tip was called a strike since 1895.

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          • #20
            RE: All-Time leader in pitches

            And another thing occured to me... It wasn't always 4 balls for a walk, and Young may have pitched when it was more than 4 balls for a walk (I'm fuzzy on all the dates and specifics).

            I'm not trying to show anyone up, just trying to help. But thanks for the compliment!
            ciamele

            "So I pick up the ball and throw it to Naturally?"

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            • #21
              RE: All-Time leader in pitches

              >You're correct it didn't need to be that complex; using your
              >#'s =
              >
              >Young 29942 x 3.3 (not 3.0) = 98,086
              >Ryan. 22480 x 3.8 (not 4.0) = 85,424
              >

              Not that it affects things much, but here are the actual number of batters faced by Young and Ryan from STATS All-Time Major League Handbook:

              Young 30,058
              Ryan 22,575

              A couple others, just for fun:

              Galvin 25,234
              Niekro 22,677
              Johnson 23,749

              Dan
              Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

              Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

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              • #22
                RE: All-Time leader in pitches

                Stats had 95 more for Ryan, and 116 more for Young...all I did was
                est app dp's...and stats likely has caught steals and pickoffs, that
                we didn't.
                pb::

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                • #23
                  Baseball Prospectus ran a story today about pitches thrown and a estimator they came up with.

                  Here is the formula:
                  Implied pitch count (IPC) = (3.17 * BFP) + (3.44 * BB) + (1.53 * K)


                  Based on this Formula here are Cy Youngs and Nolan Ryans numbers:
                  Nolan Ryan total pitch count: 89,920
                  CY Young total pitch count: 103,789
                  Well over 10,000 pitch lead. Interesting enough they ran the numbers for Cy Young and came up with a number around 99,000. The reason for the difference is they are using Batters Faced numbers that are lower than Retrosheets. Also while they didn't include it in the formula they said that groundball pictures have lower pitch totals than flyball pitchers. So the formula probably overestimates Cy Youngs numbers by a good deal. If we lower Cy's totals by 10% to try and figure out a more accurate number we come up with 93,383 total pitches or if we use Baseball Prospectus numbers we get 88,987 total pitches or a little under 1000 less pitches than Nolan.

                  The IPC gives Ryan 3.98 pitches per batter and Cy Young 3.45. If we adjust Cy's pitches per by 10% we get 3.1. Kind of spooky for me that my rough estimates on pitches per were pretty accurate. Earlier I had estimated that Nolan threw 4 pitches per batter and Cy Young had thrown 3 pitches per.

                  Something I should note I originally used Greg Maddux for comparison to find total pitches per. Well I found Greg's real total and it is 3.32 pitches per batter not 3.4 that I had earlier used. Also if we assume that the two pitches are similar in terms of walks and hits allowed than I should point out that IPC routinely overestimates MAddux total pitches thrown. For his career it has overestimated by 8% and his last two years number are off by 9 and 10%.

                  Like I said earlier I think the two pitches have thrown a similar amount of pitches but I think in the end that Cy Young probably threw more. But I am not 100% sure.

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                  • #24
                    Re: RE: All-Time leader in pitches

                    Originally posted by cubbieinexile
                    [updated:LAST EDITED ON Apr-09-02 AT 04:08 AM (EDT)]Your forgetting double plays and caught stealing from your equation so not every out requires a pitch.

                    Secondly I seriously doubt the ratios would stay the same throughout history. Considering that both walks and Strikeouts are more common nowadays then when Young played.
                    How can you get a double play without at least ONE pitch being thrown? How can a runner be caught stealing without at least ONE pitch being thrown? It ain't possible.

                    Bob

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                    • #25
                      You're missing the point. I'm not saying that it is possible to get all three outs w/o throwing a pitch. But that once on base outs can be committed without throwing a pitch across the plate. In the original formula all the positive offensive formulas had not negatives besides the general out. For instance if we used that formula and in a inning a team had three hits and three outs. The pitcher would have thrown 21 pitches. But what if the first hit was then accompanied by a CS and then after the second hit the final batter hit into a DP? So instead of facing 6 batters the pitcher only faced 4 batters. In effect by not accounting for other negative offensive events you have the possibility of estimating more batters faced than they really did. Even worse is the uncommon triple play which would mean the pitcher only faced 4 batters in that situation or 3 CS which meant the pitcher only faced 3 batters.

                      For DP I'm not saying that we need not throw a pitch to get 2 outs but that it is possible to get 2 outs on one pitch to one batter. Yes the previous batter had to pitched to but again by not accounting for DP you allow the possibility of overcounting.

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                      • #26
                        Another example. First batter gets a hit. If we use the formula the pitcher threw 3.5 pitches. Next batter up hits into a double play. Now then for the hitters out we add 3.5 pitches to his total. For the second out we add another 3.5 pitches to his total, bringing to 10.5 pitches thrown. Despite the fact that he should have only really thrown 7 pitches if formula had DP's in it. In effect by counting DP the formula treats DP like two batters instead of one batter.

                        The other example: A batters gets a hit (3.5) then gets picked off of first for the CS. Now then for this event the formula would say 7 pitches had been thrown even though if we adjust for CS it would only be 3.5 pitches thrown.

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                        • #27
                          I'm still guessing that Ol' Satch, pitching 150-200 games many years, threw more than either Cy or Nolan. But there's no way to document it ... sigh.
                          the ubiquitous Bly11

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by bly11
                            I'm still guessing that Ol' Satch, pitching 150-200 games many years, threw more than either Cy or Nolan. But there's no way to document it ... sigh.
                            *sigh* Once again I should point out that this implied to be restricted to the major leagues.

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                            • #29
                              I haven't seen the idea mentioned yet that the MULTIPLIERS THEMSELVES vary by era.

                              You only GET a lot of strikeouts and walks if batters go deep in the count.

                              Ryan pitched when there were more of both.

                              So it follows that even when someone put the ball in play against Ryan, it was after he threw more pitches, on average, than Cy Young.

                              BTW, this topic was just brought up on the Baseball Mogul boards so I'm in the process of doing a simulation of each era and will be posting my results here:

                              http://www.sportsmogul.com/vbulletin...ad.php?t=96016

                              Clay

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                              • #30
                                From an August 2004 Hardball Times article: What Pitch Counts Hath Wrought.

                                Let's compare these totals to those of some past greats:
                                Nolan Ryan 90,211
                                Steve Carlton 83,355
                                Gaylord Perry 82,147
                                Don Sutton 80,526
                                Warren Spahn 79,613
                                Bert Blyleven 77,310
                                Tom Seaver 73,560
                                Tommy John 72,708
                                Early Wynn 72,607
                                Robin Roberts 70,037
                                Jim Kaat 69,743
                                Red Ruffing 68,599
                                Ferguson Jenkins 68,494
                                Frank Tanana 65,931
                                Ted Lyons 63,783
                                Bobo Newsom 62,303
                                Bob Feller 62,255
                                Dennis Martinez 62,091
                                Lefty Grove 61,642
                                Bob Gibson 61,301
                                Jack Morris 60,991
                                Jim Palmer 60,666
                                Jerry Koosman 60,425
                                Jim Bunning 58,338
                                Mickey Lolich 57,420

                                Special knuckleballer category:
                                Phil Niekro 85,110
                                Charlie Hough 61,166

                                Just for the hell of it, some deadballers:
                                Cy Young 107,114
                                Walter Johnson 87,528
                                Pete Alexander 75,973
                                Christy Mathewson 69,644

                                My question is...do these estimates even factor in the lack of a foul strike rule for the first 13 seasons (4800 innings) of his career? I doubt it does.

                                And if it doesn't, it's scary to think what Young's total would be had it factored in all of those extra pitches thrown simply due to the rule difference.

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