Is Sadaharu Oh a top 100 player?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I see a lot of people rank Oscar Charleston, Josh Gibson, and Satchel Paige in their top 100. But I never see Sadaharu Oh on anyone's top 100 list, except for Jim Albright of course.

Do you consider Sadaharu Oh to be one of the top-100 players of all time?

[abacab]

I think the answer is yes, but the question is where exactly does he rank. My best guess is that he belongs in the neighborhood of Killebrew, Stargell, and McCovey.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I think the answer is yes, but the question is where exactly does he rank. My best guess is that he belongs in the neighborhood of Killebrew, Stargell, and McCovey.

That's a good starting point.

[Myankee4life]

I think he ranks in the top 100 maybe 60-80 range.

[mac195]

J Albright has done the math for statistical comparisons of Japan League players to MLBers. If I remember right, Oh comes out a little ahead of contemporaries McCovey and Killebrew.

[jalbright]

unsurprisingly, I voted yes. I doubt I'd rank him in the top 40, as I can't see him as better than Gehrig and Foxx, and I choose to be conservative enough to put him behind Mize. I put him ahead of all other first basemen from after 1920 (I'm not completely comfortable with how to rate Anson, Brouthers and Connor from the 19th century). For anyone wanting to look at the math, see this article: http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/an...lbright13.html another article which is quite relevant to this discussion is http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/an...lbright16.html

Jim Albright

[leecemark]

--I think him has compared him to Willie McCovey in the past. I think that is a fairly optimistic, but not unreasonable comparison. McCovey is probably in the 60-70 range for me and Oh would be maybe 10-15 spots below him.

[538280]

I suppose Oh may just make my top 100 (probably 90s), but I don't think he's anywhere near McCovey. McCovey may have had one of the top 10 hitting peaks of all time, certainly at least top 15. I don't see Oh as being that kind of hitter. Orlando Cepeda with better plate discipline is probably more like it.

[leecemark]

--Doesn't Orlando Cepeda with better plate dIscipline pretty much describe McCovey?

[538280]

--Doesn't Orlando Cepeda with better plate dIscipline pretty much describe McCovey?

McCovey was a much better slugger. He had a 193 rel. IsoSLG and Cepeda was at 153. I don't think Oh was the slugger McCovey was.

[leecemark]

--Cepeda was a great player before his knees gave out in the mid-60s. 1967 MVP not withstanding, he was never the same player after. He was clearly a better player than McCovey in the early 60s. I guess better plate disipline AND better health separate McCovey from Cepeda though (although Strech had some knee problems of his own that kept him from Gehrig/Foxx territory).

[mac195]

I suppose Oh may just make my top 100 (probably 90s), but I don't think he's anywhere near McCovey. McCovey may have had one of the top 10 hitting peaks of all time, certainly at least top 15. I don't see Oh as being that kind of hitter. Orlando Cepeda with better plate discipline is probably more like it.

Cepeda with better plate discipline, and a longer career is a top 50 player.

Here is Jim's projection for Oh:

Games   AB   Hits  2B  3B  HR  TB    walks  avg  OBP   Slg 
2995   9939  2778 372  39 527  4809  2235 0.279  0.412  0.484

Based on that, and considering that it is projected to the low offense '60s, you would have to rate Oh as a top 50 or 60 player.

[Blackout]

more walks than Teddy Ballgame?

[jalbright]

more walks than Teddy Ballgame?

Yep. This is the one case where I used Oh's actual total rather than what the numbers told me I should use. Before you get on any high horse about that, realize that doing so was a far more conservative option (i.e., the numbers said it should be even higher because of 1) the shorter Japanese seasons and 2) the comparisons of the time have major leaguers giving up more walks to guys who played in both leagues than Japanese pitchers did).

I've written that Oh's career totals are McCovey's with 700 more walks. Oh was insanely consistent if you account for season length. So he would have never been as good as McCovey at his peak, but over his career, he would have bested Willie because of Oh's consistency and durability.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

As a sidelight to my estimation of Oh's walks, the numbers I used would put Oh at around 3000. If instead we used his performance in exhibitions against major leaguers, those numbers would prorate to over 2500--and the evidence is that those major league pitchers were definitely better than average. So choosing 2200+ is as conservative as I could go and still base the figure on actual evidence.

There are several advantages in using McCovey as the base for comparison. Both men are left handed first basemen who played basically from 1960 to 1980 and either project (Oh) or did hit 520-530 career homers.

Jim Albright