Derek Jeter Thread (and Poll)

[538280]

If you favor Gehringer over Morgan, you're going based on inflated era stats and a complete hatred and failure to properly weight a walk. In any real statistical model that actually has to do with why teams win games Morgan has a huge and insurmountable offensive edge over Gehringer. There's no way in the world to dispute that. Go along with your incorrect subjective feelings if you want though.

[DoubleX]

Ranking Derek Jeter?

I think Jeter is one of the most polarizing players of recent times. You either love him and think his "intangibles" and "baseball smarts" make him the greatest. Or you react to that overhype and underrate him, citing his sabermetrically poor defense and his numbers being a product of his teams. The truth is probably somewhere closer to the middle (though leaning to the great side ). Anywho, I was wondering where people would rank Jeter among all-time SS at the end of his career if he put up certain numbers. This is all hypothetical, but I came up with some numbers that I felt he could reasonably finish with, and if he did, where do you think he would rank on the SS list? (Remember, this just meant to be a silly hypothetical )

All of these numbers are figuring that Jeter plays until he's 40, which is 9 more seasons, and in which he is free from major injury and gradually declines from ages 35-37, with a more steep decline from 38-40. I assumed from 32-35 that he'd put up his regular-type numbers:

Hits
Current: 1936
Projected: 3436
All-Time Ranking: 6th
Average Per Year to Reach Projected: 167 (keep in mind, Jeter has never hit less than 183 in a healthy season, and that was his rookie year).

Batting Average
Current: .314
Projected: .304
All-Time Ranking: Outside Top 100
Average Per Year to Reach Projected: Honestly, I just pulled .304 out from my backside. A 10 point career drop seems reasonably, especially given that he's still in his prime and could raise a little before it drops.

Runs
Current: 1159
Projected: 2074
All-Time Ranking: 7th
Average Per Year to Reach Projected: 102

RBI
Current: 763
Projected: 1333
All-Time Ranking: T-75th
Average Per Year to Reach Projected: 64

Home Runs
Current: 169
Projected: 295
All-Time Ranking: Outside Top 100
Average Per Year to Reach Projected: 14

Stolen Bases
Current: 215
Projected: 350
All-Time Ranking: 101st
Average Per Year to Reach Projected: 15

As for defense...Consider it to whatever extent you want. He has won 2 GG's and could very well win some more, but then again, many people (myself included) don't think he was deserving of those awards (and likely any future ones). However, his defense has improved in recent years, and that could continue. It is not unprecedented for a player to peak defensively in their mid 30s, Wade Boggs is an example. On the whole, I'd say the perception of Jeter's career defense in 9 years will not be as harsh as it is now because he will have better seasons in the next 9 years than he had in his first 10 (of course, this is all just hypothetical, so just play along and humor me ). So on the whole, at the end of his career I'm thinking he'll be regarded as an average to slightly above average defensive SS for his career.

Also, because Jeter is so polarizing, please keep in mind that this is meant to be nothing more than a fun hypothetical, so just humor me and roll with it if you can. Thanks.
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Derek Jeter, Yankees' SS, 1995-2006, Yankee S.--------------1999, Yankee S.--------------June 14, 2002, Shea S.---BB Reference

----------------------1999


August 18, 2007, Yankee Stadium


July 1, 2006


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Derek's Relative Stats:

----Relative BA-----Rel.Slg.-------Rel.Onbase----Rel.ISO-------OPS+
-----117. (41th)-------107-------------114-----------------------122 (t 277th)
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leecemark; November 11, 19, 2004, 05:56 AM
The Final Tally
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--Congratulations to Honus Wagner as our first unanimous #1 selection.
1. Honus Wagner 250
2. Alex Rodriguez 187
3. Arky Vaughan 153
4. Cal Ripken........141
5. J.H. "Pop" Lloyd 98
6. Ernie Banks........96
7. Robin Yount.......67
8. Luke Appling......61
8. Joe Cronin.........61
10. George Davis.....45

--And the second 10
11. Barry Larkin........33
12. Lou Boudreau......22
13. Derek Jeter.......21
13. Ozzie Smith........21
15. Willie Wells.........19
16. Vern Stephens....14
17. Hughie Jennings...12
18. Alan Trammell.......9
18. Phil Rizzuto..........9
20. Louis Aparicio.......8
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538280; November 24, 2005, 04:38 PM
The results are now in. We had 16 ballots. Not surprisingly, Honus Wagner was a near unanimous #1 selection. A-Rod also claimed the #2 spot in a close race against Arky Vaughan. Here are all players who received 10 or more points (first place votes in parenthesis):

1. Honus Wagner-189 (15)
2. Alex Rodriguez-120
3. Arky Vaughan 114
4. Cal Ripken Jr.-88
5. Pop Lloyd-83 (1)
6. Ernie Banks-64
7. Barry Larkin-55
8. Robin Yount-51
9. Luke Appling-31
10. Joe Cronin-26
11. George Davis-17
12. Ozzie Smith-15
13. Willie Wells-12
14. Derek Jeter-11
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Bill Burgess; May 2, 2007, 07:13 PM
OK. This poll/survey has been open for 11 days now, and it it time it closed.
Here are the results of our 3rd round of Greatest Position Players for Shortstops. I go by the 10-9-8 system.

1. Honus Wagner - 186
2. Alexander Rodriguez - 157
3. Cal Ripken - 122
4. Arky Vaughan - 92
5. John Lloyd - 83
6. Ernie Banks - 79
7. Robin Yount - 78
8. Barry Larkin - 53
9. Luke Applilng - 39
10. Ozzie Smith - 28
11. Joe Cronin - 24
12. Derek Jeter - 22
13. George Davis - 13
14. Babe Dahlen - 9
15. Herman Long - 4
15. Hughie Jennings - 4
15. Rabbit Maranville - 4
15. Willie Wells - 4
15. Lou Boudreau - 4
20. Alan Trammell - 3
21. Miguel Tejada - 2
22. Joe Sewell - 2
23. Luis Aparicio - 1

[Blackout]

If his hasn't peaked yet and can throw together some more great all-around seasons, he can get inbetween projected A-rod and Honus/Pop Lloyd

If he has peaked, he'll finish below projected A-rod, Honus, Pop Lloyd (my current #1) and possibly Arky Vaugn and Ernie Banks.


A-rod is projected to finish #1 in my opinion

Jeter right now is in my top 10, but not top 5

[DoubleX]

A-rod is projected to finish #1 in my opinion

Jeter right now is in my top 10, but not top 5

A-Rod will be your number 1 even if he never plays full-time at SS again? I think if he spent his entire career there, or even just a few more years, the Wagner/A-Rod debate would have been interesting, but I personally can't put him ahead of Wagner if he doesn't play SS anymore.

[Myankee4life]

If jeter ends up with a .305 career avg........300HR's........1350RBI's.....3500 hits.....2000 runs scored.....and 350 SB.......Then this will make him one of the most well-rounded shortstop's of all time and deserving of a top 5 spot. He's fielding will probably end up being considered adequate-above average. Add in the fact that he's played in 6 WS and won 4.........AND he plays for the Yankees his entire career he could end up as high as 3rd.

[torez77]

I think he's already a top 10 SS. Assuming your hypotheses above pan out, I'd put him in the top 5 easily.

[Blackout]

A-Rod will be your number 1 even if he never plays full-time at SS again? I think if he spent his entire career there, or even just a few more years, the Wagner/A-Rod debate would have been interesting, but I personally can't put him ahead of Wagner if he doesn't play SS anymore.

Honus Wagner played 900 games away from SS



granted, Honus Wagner was far more dominating than Jeter compared to his league, but things have changed so much over the last 100 years in terms of league quality that I cant overlook them

[torez77]

If jeter ends up with a .305 career avg........300HR's........1350RBI's.....3500 hits.....2000 runs scored.....and 350 SB.......Then this will make him one of the most well-rounded shortstop's of all time and deserving of a top 5 spot. He's fielding will probably end up being considered adequate-above average. Add in the fact that he's played in 6 WS and won 4.........AND he plays for the Yankees his entire career he could end up as high as 3rd.

Well said.

[Edgartohof]

A-Rod will be your number 1 even if he never plays full-time at SS again? I think if he spent his entire career there, or even just a few more years, the Wagner/A-Rod debate would have been interesting, but I personally can't put him ahead of Wagner if he doesn't play SS anymore.

Well, that also goes back to the whole issue that he would be playing SS if he could, but he moved to 3B to help his team, not because he wasn't as good at SS. He has always been better than Jeter, better offensively and defensively, and Wagner didn't play at SS his whole career, so that should be a "moo" point (too many FRIENDS re-runs)

[Dontworry]

Jeter is below average defensively at Short. He still has excellent value as a SS, because his production on offense is better than most. But his defense cuts into his value, it does not enhance it.

Here is a metric proving it:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/012856.php

This is detailed data, based on a detailed record of all balls in play...where they were hit and into what zone, what type of ball, grounder, line, pop, etc...., and how hard they were hit.

With all this data, some really smart people can tell you a very simple thing:

Who is doing a better job at converting balls hit into their zone into outs.

Also his Career FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) is -124.

He's not good with glove, plain and simple.

[KCGHOST]

I gave him a top five ranking. First he has already peaked (his age 25-26 seasons were clearly his best) but hasn't really hit a declined that much. Nor is there a current downward trend in his numbers. He has zero shot to catch Wagner, and very little chance to catch Vaughn. If Arod gets back to SS then he isn't going to catch him either. He should catch Davis but needs to stay healthy. The only others I would put ahead of him are the one or two great Negro League SS's.

[DoubleX]

Jeter is below average defensively at Short. He still has excellent value as a SS, because his production on offense is better than most. But his defense cuts into his value, it does not enhance it.

Here is a metric proving it:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/012856.php

This is detailed data, based on a detailed record of all balls in play...where they were hit and into what zone, what type of ball, grounder, line, pop, etc...., and how hard they were hit.

With all this data, some really smart people can tell you a very simple thing:

Who is doing a better job at converting balls hit into their zone into outs.

Also his Career FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) is -124.

He's not good with glove, plain and simple.

Perfect example of one of those two polarized groups I was talking about...You either love Jeter and over-estimate everything he does, or you react to that by under-estimating Jeter and placing a lot of emphasis on defensive sabermetrics.
))
Then again, you do admit he still has excellent value at SS despite the defense, so I suppose you're a tweener.

[Dontworry]

Perfect example of one of those two polarized groups I was talking about...You either love Jeter and over-estimate everything he does, or you react to that by under-estimating Jeter and placing a lot of emphasis on defensive sabermetrics.

Below are the different ratings from different sources, followed by Jeter's rating and either the league average or his rank amoung SS's.

Fielding Average(Baseball-Reference.com) .979 .972

Range Factor (Baseball-Reference.com) 4.56 4.17

Zone Rating (SI.com) .830 16th

Rate 2 (BaseballProspectus.com) 104 100

UZR(Mitchel Lichtman) -16 29th

Fans Scouting Report (Tangotiger) 59 63

PMR (BaseballMusings.com) -.0413 31st

Range (HardballTimes.com) -16 25th

Plus/Minus (The Fielding Bible) -34 31st

Relative Range Factor
(Bill James/The Fielding Bible) -3 0

Now according to virtually all of these tools. It has improved, but not enough to put him near the top of the league, as his GG would have suggested.


" or you react to that by under-estimating Jeter and placing a lot of emphasis on defensive sabermetrics "

Yes, there are holes, lots of them, and they're not to the point where they can evaluate defensive production with the same confidence with which we can judge offensive production. But, as more information becomes available, and as technology improves, the holes are being filled.

[DoubleX]

Well, that also goes back to the whole issue that he would be playing SS if he could, but he moved to 3B to help his team, not because he wasn't as good at SS. He has always been better than Jeter, better offensively and defensively, and Wagner didn't play at SS his whole career, so that should be a "moo" point (too many FRIENDS re-runs)

I agree, A-Rod's the superior SS, and I have him 2nd all-time. If I had my druthers, A-Rod would be at SS and Jeter would be in CF for the Yanks (will Bill Mueller or some other warm body playing 3B until Eric Duncan is ready in a couple of years).

The argument about Wagner playing a lot of games away from SS is a very good one. He played about 600 more games at SS than A-Rod, and with era adjustment, is very, very close. To me, A-Rod just needed a few more years at SS and I probably would throw my support to him for no. 1 (though I'm still not adverse to the argument that he is no. 1). I'm not looking forward to seeing how far up he climbs on the third-base list, given that 3B gets really thin and debatable after the first 5 or 6 players. If A-Rod has say 8-10 productive years at 3B at somewhere in between what he did for the past two years, and can snag a couple of Gold Gloves at 3B, I can definitely see him being in the Top 5 at 3B in addition to being in the Top 2 at SS. Pretty darn impressive.

[DoubleX]

Below are the different ratings from different sources, followed by Jeter's rating and either the league average or his rank amoung SS's.

Fielding Average(Baseball-Reference.com) .979 .972

Range Factor (Baseball-Reference.com) 4.56 4.17

Zone Rating (SI.com) .830 16th

Rate 2 (BaseballProspectus.com) 104 100

UZR(Mitchel Lichtman) -16 29th

Fans Scouting Report (Tangotiger) 59 63

PMR (BaseballMusings.com) -.0413 31st

Range (HardballTimes.com) -16 25th

Plus/Minus (The Fielding Bible) -34 31st

Relative Range Factor
(Bill James/The Fielding Bible) -3 0

Now according to virtually all of these tools. It has improved, but not enough to put him near the top of the league, as his GG would have suggested.


" or you react to that by under-estimating Jeter and placing a lot of emphasis on defensive sabermetrics "

Yes, there are holes, lots of them, and they're not to the point where they can evaluate defensive production with the same confidence with which we can judge offensive production. But, as more information becomes available, and as technology improves, the holes are being filled.

That's great and all, but you're just verifying my original point about Jeter being so polarized, and I agree that he didn't deserve the GG. Consider Jeter's defense anyway you want, I'm just curious to see if he puts up my hypothetical offensive numbers, where you would rank him (and when you consider that ranking, consider how you think you'll view his career defensively when it is over in 9 hypothetical years). I'm not interested in this being another "Jeter is so great because of his intangibles" vs. "Jeter isn't so great because sabermetrics show how bad his defense is" debate. I just made some hypothetical numbers that I think are reasonable for Jeter, provided good health, and I'm curious to see how people would consider his career if he did in fact put up those numbers.