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Will Someone ever break Ty Cobbs BA record?

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  • Will Someone ever break Ty Cobbs BA record?

    I was wondering what you guys thoguht on this one. I dont think someone will ever hit above .350 in a career again.
    47
    Yes
    8.51%
    4
    No
    91.49%
    43

    The poll is expired.

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  • #2
    depends on what happens - i don't really see someone doing it in a 20-yr career but possibly in a truncated career - how many at bats do you actually need?

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Cubsfan97
      I was wondering what you guys thoguht on this one. I dont think someone will ever hit above .350 in a career again.
      I don't think so. There are two main reasons Cobb was able to hit .366.

      1) Peaks years in the Deadball era
      The dead Ball era was geared towards a high BA. Lot's of hits, few HRs and walks.

      2) Decline phase in the 1920s
      By shear historical accident, Cobb played his decline years in the 1920s. This allowed him to keep his BA very high. The gap between him and the rest of the league closed dramtically but since the leaue batting averages went up it alllowed Cobb to keep hitting .360. I believe he hit .360 after 1920 (Bill would know the exact BA). Had the Dead Ball era continued or another 10 years Cobb's career BA would have been significantly lower.

      A modern player has to play in a much stronger league than Cobb did. Take Albert Pujols. He is a wonderous hitter. He has a .332 career BA and a single season high of .359 which is still off of .366. Ichiro hit .372 in 2004 but fell off to .303 in 2005. It's obvious that pitchers made major adjustments to Ichiro. Pitcher's in Cobb's time didn't have advanced scouting, video, hitting charts, etc. to analyze Cobb.
      Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules
        I don't think so. There are two main reasons Cobb was able to hit .366.

        1) Peaks years in the Deadball era
        The dead Ball era was geared towards a high BA. Lot's of hits, few HRs and walks.
        The deadball era was geared towards high batting averages? You're kidding, right? The American League hit .251 during Cobb's tenture in the deadball era. From 1905-09, the league hit .245, and in 1908, reached a nadir of .239- only a few years in the entire history of the modern game were that anemic in terms of hitting for average.

        Cobb hit .387 (with outstanding power, it wasn't like he was just trying to hit for singles/average) during a decade in which the American League hit .255 (and yes, that's also well below average, the "average" average has been in the .260's historically).

        Did the 20's mask his decline? Of course they did, but they did for everyone else that was playing at the same time, and really augmented the numbers of guys who were playing their primes in that era.

        Also, more walks=more at bats, which tends to lower averages for the individual (regression to the mean). How many guys have hit .350 in 200 at bats in a season? Now how about 600 at bats? The more at bats you get, the more regression to the mean has a chance to take over, and the harder it is to keep your average up. Well that mathematical fact, along with the additive, cumulative wear and tear accrued during a season or career make this true.

        Anyway, .367 (or .366) carried out over 24 years, while hitting for power and excelling in other facets of the game, is arguably the greatest career record in baseball history.

        I posted this about a year ago on another thread.

        Ty Cobb- .367 career average. This is a quality AND quantity record- he did it over 24 seasons.

        Just to give you an idea how completely off the charts this one is- Ichiro, the commensurate singles/average hitter, currently at the peak of his career would need 5 consecutive .400 seasons (200 for 500) to get his average UP TO .367- then I'd like to see him keep hitting .370 from age 37 on.

        One of the most incredible career record in sports history- pitching records are all unbreakable because the game is completely different now, obviating any comparisons or chances to shatter old time wins records, etc. But everyone still bats, and everyone hits.


        And if that wasn't enough proof, there was THIS post by Dave Kent.

        Code:
                                                 Std Devs
                                                   Above
        Player                 H     AB     Avg   League
        =================================================
        Ty Cobb              4189  11434   0.366   2.54
        Joe Jackson          1772   4981   0.356   2.27
        Ted Williams         2654   7706   0.344   2.19
        Tony Gwynn           3141   9288   0.338   2.13
        Ichiro Suzuki         924   2722   0.339   2.04
        Rod Carew            3053   9315   0.328   2.01
        Todd Helton          1372   4051   0.339   1.92
        Nap Lajoie           3242   9589   0.338   1.88
        Rogers Hornsby       2930   8173   0.358   1.88
        Stan Musial          3630  10972   0.331   1.83
        Albert Pujols         787   2363   0.333   1.81
        Wade Boggs           3010   9180   0.328   1.81
        Mike Donlin          1282   3854   0.333   1.80
        Tris Speaker         3514  10195   0.345   1.76
        Roberto Clemente     3000   9454   0.317   1.63
        Honus Wagner         3415  10430   0.327   1.60
        Kirby Puckett        2304   7244   0.318   1.48
        Eddie Collins        3315   9949   0.333   1.47
        Vladimir Guerrero    1421   4375   0.325   1.42
        Lefty O'Doul         1140   3264   0.349   1.41
        Harry Heilmann       2660   7787   0.342   1.37
        Lyman Bostock         624   2004   0.311   1.36
        George Sisler        2812   8267   0.340   1.35
        Nomar Garciaparra    1330   4133   0.322   1.32
        Babe Ruth            2873   8399   0.342   1.32
        Matty Alou           1777   5789   0.307   1.32
        Joe DiMaggio         2214   6821   0.325   1.31
        Lou Gehrig           2721   8001   0.340   1.26
        Bill Terry           2193   6428   0.341   1.23
        Benny Kauff           961   3094   0.311   1.23
        Manny Mota           1149   3779   0.304   1.23
        Tony Oliva           1917   6301   0.304   1.22
        Joe Medwick          2471   7635   0.324   1.21
        George Stone          984   3271   0.301   1.17
        Sam Crawford         2961   9570   0.309   1.17
        Ginger Beaumont      1759   5660   0.311   1.17
        Paul Waner           3152   9459   0.333   1.16
        Ralph Garr           1562   5108   0.306   1.15
        Dale Mitchell        1244   3984   0.312   1.14
        Hank Aaron           3771  12364   0.305   1.14
        Jackie Robinson      1518   4877   0.311   1.13
        Larry Walker         2069   6592   0.314   1.12
        Don Mattingly        2153   7003   0.307   1.12
        Vin Campbell          642   2069   0.310   1.11
        Pete Rose            4256  14053   0.303   1.10
        George Brett         3154  10349   0.305   1.07
        Al Oliver            2743   9049   0.303   1.07
        Cy Seymour           1723   5682   0.303   1.07
        Manny Ramirez        1760   5572   0.316   1.06
        Al Simmons           2927   8759   0.334   1.05
        Bill Madlock         2008   6594   0.305   1.04
        Derek Jeter          1734   5513   0.315   1.04
        Riggs Stephenson     1515   4508   0.336   1.03
        Mike Piazza          1829   5805   0.315   1.02
        Barney McCosky       1301   4172   0.312   1.02
        Richie Ashburn       2574   8365   0.308   1.02
        Edgar Martinez       2247   7213   0.312   1.01
        Paul Molitor         3319  10835   0.306   1.00
        Jimmie Foxx          2646   8134   0.325   1.00
        Look at the seperation of Cobb from the rest of the pack. This, more than any mean-adjusted stat, proves how truly awesome and completely unassailable his career batting average was.
        Last edited by csh19792001; 02-14-2006, 11:24 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by bkmckenna
          depends on what happens - i don't really see someone doing it in a 20-yr career but possibly in a truncated career - how many at bats do you actually need?
          4,000, I believe. But still, that doesn't help things much.

          I read awhile back that Larry Walker hit .360 three years in a row, and that no one had done that in long, long while. I went back and found that the last guy to do it was Al Simmons (1929-31). Ty Cobb hit over .360 eleven years in a row (he never even fell below .369)!!! And this was from 1909-19, when the American League hit only .254!!!! Absolutley ridiculous.

          Here is that article I spoke of.

          Comment


          • #6
            3000 at-bats is all you need to get into the record books, thats 5 years for a contact hitter, 6 years for a power hitter

            5 years averaging .330 or .340 is possible (look at Ichiro and Pujols), but .366? I doubt it

            Comment


            • #7
              Unless there are some drastic rule changes of some sort, I can't see any hitter touching Cobb's lifetime average. Also who is to say what makes one eligible to be considered "career' batting average. Even at that, try to imagine a hitter in these times batting close to .366 for even 5 years.

              There may have been a few in the last 50 years that could do that, Boggs, Gwynn and Carew to name some.
              Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 02-14-2006, 12:44 PM.

              Comment


              • #8
                People like to argue that Babe was only dominating in HR because nobody else was "going for" them. This might be true to a degree, but the game was clearly setup for anyone and everyone to become sluggers. By '21 others tried emulating his swing and his style of bat. Many just couldn't do it.

                Cobb is pretty much the same thing, but to a lesser degree. He benefitted from the 1911 initial "corking", but so did everyone else. His unique hitting talents and approach was something not many others were doing, because nobody else really could execute to the degree Cobb did. This is why he separated from the pack the way he did.

                It won't ever be done again. Too much scouting, proper placemenet of fielders, larger gloves, smaller fields mean less room for hits to drop in, and just overall, it would be going against what baseball has setup. Today's game doesn't encourage a high BA style of hitting.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by csh19792001
                  The deadball era was geared towards high batting averages? You're kidding, right? The American League hit .251 during Cobb's tenture in the deadball era. From 1905-09, the league hit .245, and in 1908, reached a nadir of .239- only a few years in the entire history of the modern game were that anemic in terms of hitting for average.
                  Man, I wish Dave would do standard deviations on a BUNCH of other records
                  Last edited by Bill Burgess; 02-14-2006, 02:23 PM.
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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by RuthMayBond
                    Man, I wish Dave would do standard deviations on a BUNCH of other records
                    Yeah, really interesting. From this perspective, Carew's .328 is even more impressive than Hornsby's .358.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Barnstormer
                      Yeah, really interesting. From this perspective, Carew's .328 is even more impressive than Hornsby's .358.
                      carew more impressive than hornsby - a complete distortion

                      slugging% - .577 to .429

                      ob% - .434 to .395
                      Last edited by Brian McKenna; 02-14-2006, 01:26 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by bkmckenna
                        carew more impressive than hornsby - a complete distortion

                        slugging% - .577 to .429

                        ob% - .434 to .395

                        I thought about that after I posted - I was only talking about BA, in other words achieving a .328 average in the 70s set you apart from your peers more than a .358 average in the 30s. Didn't mean Carew was a better overall hitter.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Cobb's .367 seemed destined to last forever unless we get some short career Wade Boggs type guy who combines great bat control with great discipline.
                          Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            well it just died because it's only .366

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by csh19792001
                              The deadball era was geared towards high batting averages? You're kidding, right? The American League hit .251 during Cobb's tenture in the deadball era. From 1905-09, the league hit .245, and in 1908, reached a nadir of .239- only a few years in the entire history of the modern game were that anemic in terms of hitting for average.
                              Relax csh,

                              I spoke poorly. The dead Ball era was obviously not a high average era for the average player. What I was trying to say is that the lack of deep talent allowed someone like Cobb to utterly dominate. When the hitters began to take advantage the average hitter hit for a much higher average. In the dead ball era, despite the low league batting average, great players like Cobb, Speaker, Jackson, Baker, Collins, Wagner, etc still put up really high batting averages. And Cobb did hit for power in terms of Dead ball era baseball. But Cobb was not a power hitter in the modern sense. Today power is based on, well, power. Cobb's power was based on speed. He had a huge number of triples. Cobb's .366 BA is impressive. It is a combination of great talent, motivation and historical placement. If Cobb played today he would not hit .366 over 24 years because the game is harder to dominant now. But He's still be a great player in my opinion. And I did say that no one will beat his .366 BA.
                              Last edited by Honus Wagner Rules; 05-22-2006, 12:22 AM.
                              Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                              Comment

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