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2017 BBF Top 100 Pitchers of All Time #31-35

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  • #76
    Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post

    Do they have DRA and TZ for teams?

    Look at a season like the 1905 NL. You had one team make 248 errors and another team make 409 errors. Yes, there's a lot more to fielding than errors, but that's got to be an indication of a very wide spread between the best fielding teams and the worst fielding teams.

    The fewest errors in baseball this season were 73 by the Marlins The most were 121 by Oakland. Only 9 of 30 teams made 100 or more errors. Plus the mere fact that there are so many fewer balls in play and so many fewer errors nowadays means that fielding means less than it ever did now.


    Not that I've found.

    I wasn't speaking about errors directly, but was comparing players with +20,+30 TZ and DRA vs. the -20, -30 TZ and DRA rankings. I know it is only my observations, but I notice a lot more extreme rankings nowadays versus in the past. Take Tris Speaker for example. From all accounts he was an amazing centerfielder, so great that everyone idealized him. TZ has him at +10, +10, +10, +14 for his best four years. I believe Speaker should be a lot higher.


    Babe Herman was a very poor defensive outfielder. He lost playing time for not being a good fielder. Yet the same TZ has him with one -14 run year, -8, -6, -6 and only -31 for his career. I believe it should be a lot lower.


    If legendarily good and bad players are having a hard time separating themselves from the pack in the old days, I wonder if A) there are some analytics that are bringing the pack towards zero in the olden days B) the new analytics are providing too much of a spread in the current era.


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    • #77
      Originally posted by Francoeurstein View Post
      Defense absolutely should be taken into context. Look at the 2016 Cubs who had a historically good defense. Jon Lester posted a career low in ERA at age 32. Kyle Hendricks, a pitch-to-contact pitcher had a 2.16 ERA, and John Lackey had a 3.35 at age 37. Their team ERA was 3.15 while their FIP was 3.77. Did everyone on the pitching staff drink the same Kool-Aid that made them out-perform their expectations? The answer is likely no; they had an elite defense and it clearly showed.

      This is during the era of the strikeout. Now imagine the Dead-Ball Era where there were significantly more balls put in play. Defense matters, people.
      The 2016 Cubs turned 73% of balls in play hit to them into outs. The Twins turned 66% of balls in play into outs. And yes...a large majority of that gap is defense. No team has so many true BABIP supressimg pitchers to account for much of that gap. Well, the 90s Braved did... but that was an anomoly. Now imagine how many balls in play a team fields per season. That might be a 150 run gap between best team and worst team defense. Imagine how many BIP for an individual pitcher. It isn't hard to envision how the defense behind you can have a MASSIVE impact on ERA, ERA+, RA, or what-have-you.
      Kyle Hendrick could have been the exact same pitcher in Minnesota and seen his ERA go up a full run per 9 based on nothing but team defense alone. That is why BBBref and BBG try to account for team defense. As they should. Knowing exactly how to seperate the exact breakdown of team defense vs. the minority pitcher who has legit BABIP skill is the tough part.
      Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 11-13-2017, 06:00 PM.
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      • #78
        Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post

        The 2016 Cubs turned 73% of balls in play hit to them into outs. The Twins turned 66% of balls in play into outs.
        It's not really valid to compare an NL team's fielding to an AL team's fielding with the DH. The DH is going to hit the balls in play much harder than the NL pitcher will. Many of the balls in play from an NL pitcher are easy to field sac bunts.
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        • #79
          Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post

          It's not really valid to compare an NL team's fielding to an AL team's fielding with the DH. The DH is going to hit the balls in play much harder than the NL pitcher will. Many of the balls in play from an NL pitcher are easy to field sac bunts.
          Arizona was .003% better than Minnesota. So 72.8% for Cubs and 66.5% for the DBacks. More importantly, nothing about the big picture f what I have said changed one bit.
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          • #80
            A lot of the games that I umpire are on fields where there is no fence, so there are very few home runs. Most long drives over an outfielder's head are triples, or ground rule doubles if they roll into woods or something. If major league fields had no fences would FIP say that all that mattered for a pitcher were strikeouts, walks and hit batters? That all balls in play are just a matter of luck. Certainly doubles and triples that would have been home runs if there were fences would not just be random luck for pitchers, would they?

            I remember when Tommy John pitched for the Yankees that the announcers would always count the groundball outs in each game. In some complete games he got 20+ groundball outs. I find it hard to believe that pitchers have NO control on balls in play when you have severe groundball pitchers like Tommy John, and also severe flyball pitchers.

            Last edited by SavoyBG; 11-13-2017, 09:20 PM.
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            • #81
              Of course some teams field better than others. The question is whether that should make a difference in judging a pitcher's value. I say it should make no difference, simply because recording an out on a good fielding play is exactly as valuable as recording an out by a strikeout or an easy ball. It should make no difference in the pitcher's value

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              • #82
                Originally posted by willshad View Post
                Of course some teams field better than others. The question is whether that should make a difference in judging a pitcher's value. I say it should make no difference, simply because recording an out on a good fielding play is exactly as valuable as recording an out by a strikeout or an easy ball. It should make no difference in the pitcher's value
                Yes, the value is the same, but who should get the credit for a great fielding play. The pitcher or the fielder?

                You saw the numbers I posted for Three Finger Brown and other Cubs pitchers for when they were on the Cubs vs. when they were not on the Cubs. Clearly the Cubs great fielding was the main reason for their great numbers as pitchers.
                .


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                • #83
                  Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
                  A lot of the games that I umpire are on fields where there is no fence, so there are very few home runs. Most long drives over an outfielder's head are triples, or ground rule doubles if they roll into woods or something. If major league fields had no fences would FIP say that all that mattered for a pitcher were strikeouts, walks and hit batters? That all balls in play are just a matter of luck. Certainly doubles and triples that would have been home runs if there were fences would not just be random luck for pitchers, would they?

                  I remember when Tommy John pitched for the Yankees that the announcers would always count the groundball outs in each game. In some complete games he got 20+ groundball outs. I find it hard to believe that pitchers have NO control on balls in play when you have severe groundball pitchers like Tommy John, and also severe flyball pitchers.
                  Has anyone here said pitchers have no control on BABIP? Not many people believe that anymore. I don;t think we have any Voro McCracken-disciple regulars here at all.

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                  • #84
                    Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post

                    Has anyone here said pitchers have no control on BABIP? Not many people believe that anymore. I don;t think we have any Voro McCracken-disciple regulars here at all.
                    I just think that fielding and pitching are so intertwined that we'll never really have that accurate of a system to try and value them accordingly. A team's fielding is much more important for some pitchers (Tommy John) than it is or other pitchers (Nolan Ryan). Certain pitchers can make either infielders or outfielders look better than they are. Other pitchers (Carlton) can make certain players (Schmidt) look better than they are because of one pitch (slider) that creates a particular occurence (easy groundball to 3B) a lot.

                    Not to mention nowadays when 3Bmen and 2Bmen and SS are employed differently in various shifts. Sometimes the guy in short RF is a 3Bman, sometimes a 2Bman, and once in a while a SS. Sometimes the pivot man at 2B on a DP is now the 3Bman. This presents new challenges for fielding analysis.

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                    • #85
                      Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post

                      I just think that fielding and pitching are so intertwined that we'll never really have that accurate of a system to try and value them accordingly. A team's fielding is much more important for some pitchers (Tommy John) than it is or other pitchers (Nolan Ryan). Certain pitchers can make either infielders or outfielders look better than they are. Other pitchers (Carlton) can make certain players (Schmidt) look better than they are because of one pitch (slider) that creates a particular occurence (easy groundball to 3B) a lot.

                      Not to mention nowadays when 3Bmen and 2Bmen and SS are employed differently in various shifts. Sometimes the guy in short RF is a 3Bman, sometimes a 2Bman, and once in a while a SS. Sometimes the pivot man at 2B on a DP is now the 3Bman. This presents new challenges for fielding analysis.
                      Yes - this is the Holy Grail of Sabermetrics. Thankfully - with regression anaysis - we can have a pretty good idea of overall pitcher BABIP ability. Both for individuals and overall.

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                      • #86
                        Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post

                        Has anyone here said pitchers have no control on BABIP? Not many people believe that anymore. I don;t think we have any Voro McCracken-disciple regulars here at all.
                        Isn’t one version of WAR based on FIP?

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                        • #87
                          Originally posted by brett View Post

                          Isn’t one version of WAR based on FIP?
                          FG...but to my knowledge, nobody here is using FG WAR.
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                          • #88
                            Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post

                            Yes, the value is the same, but who should get the credit for a great fielding play. The pitcher or the fielder?

                            You saw the numbers I posted for Three Finger Brown and other Cubs pitchers for when they were on the Cubs vs. when they were not on the Cubs. Clearly the Cubs great fielding was the main reason for their great numbers as pitchers.
                            Of course the fielder should get credit. I just don't feel it has to be one extreme or the other; maybe there is a way to credit the fielder, while not penalizing the pitcher (give him the same credit as any other out). it just seems to me that if we are going to be 'results based' then we have to be consistent about it, and if we are going to be 'performance independent of results-based' then the same applies. For instance, the pitcher gets dinged if the fielder makes a great play, ok so now we have to also credit hitters when the fielder makes a great play. Should we also credit them when the pitcher makes an outstanding pitch? Do we give the pitcher extra credit when the hitter gets a hit on a great pitch? It kind of opens up a big can of worms.

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                            • #89
                              Originally posted by willshad View Post

                              Of course the fielder should get credit. I just don't feel it has to be one extreme or the other; maybe there is a way to credit the fielder, while not penalizing the pitcher (give him the same credit as any other out). it just seems to me that if we are going to be 'results based' then we have to be consistent about it, and if we are going to be 'performance independent of results-based' then the same applies. For instance, the pitcher gets dinged if the fielder makes a great play, ok so now we have to also credit hitters when the fielder makes a great play. Should we also credit them when the pitcher makes an outstanding pitch? Do we give the pitcher extra credit when the hitter gets a hit on a great pitch? It kind of opens up a big can of worms.
                              You can't give full credit for an out to a pitcher if a fielder is getting some of the credit for the same out. What happens with TF Brown is that the numbers tell us that he got more help from his fielders than most pitchers get, so therefore he gets less credit for the outs he got than most pitchers get.

                              You can't give a hitter credit for a ball that was an out. It goes in as an out for the hitter and also as an out for the team in the field. The question is who gets the credit for that out, the pitcher or the fielder(s), and how much credit does each get. If you're gonna give the pitcher full credit for every out as you seem to want to, then the fielders get zero credit for any out. The ledger has top balance out. You can;t give full credit for an out to a pitcher and also give some credit to a fielder for the same out.

                              What about when a runner is thrown out at the plate by an outfielder. The pitcher gets a third of an inning pitched, which lowers his ERA, but he should not get any credit for that out. It should all go to the fielder(s). But you seem to want to give full credit to the pitcher for all outs.
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                              • #90
                                Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post

                                You can't give full credit for an out to a pitcher if a fielder is getting some of the credit for the same out. What happens with TF Brown is that the numbers tell us that he got more help from his fielders than most pitchers get, so therefore he gets less credit for the outs he got than most pitchers get.

                                You can't give a hitter credit for a ball that was an out. It goes in as an out for the hitter and also as an out for the team in the field. The question is who gets the credit for that out, the pitcher or the fielder(s), and how much credit does each get. If you're gonna give the pitcher full credit for every out as you seem to want to, then the fielders get zero credit for any out. The ledger has top balance out. You can;t give full credit for an out to a pitcher and also give some credit to a fielder for the same out.

                                What about when a runner is thrown out at the plate by an outfielder. The pitcher gets a third of an inning pitched, which lowers his ERA, but he should not get any credit for that out. It should all go to the fielder(s). But you seem to want to give full credit to the pitcher for all outs.
                                Plus - everyone always says that WAR does not equal "real wins or runs." even though it almost exactly does. If we give 100% credit for pitchers and 50% credit for fielders for the same plays...I am no math wiz or anything...but...
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