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Top 50 Pitchers All-Tme according to PARC

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  • #76
    Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post

    Sweet, are u planning to tweak ranks for war credit and at what level? Pitchers I can see an argument for and against, position players are likely robbed of productivity though. Thank you for this cool project!
    Same system. I am regressing missed-time for service seasons based on the years around them, applying a natural aging regression for post peak years, and then chopping that total value in half in order to capture possibilities of lost value on the end-of careers AND injury. In honesty, it is likely shortchanging people STILL for service/strike-time, but it is still going to be a lot closer to reality than ignoring it. I wanted to make sure PARC-D includes, with as much quantification as possible, all of the things I consider important when evaluating players.

    Wondering what to do with catchers. For example, even after including framing for Piazza AND applying a conservative cacher playing-time bonus (about the same Tanog suggested), he is STILL not going to be in the top 50. Bench (with no framing data, obviously) MIGHT make the top 50.

    Do I need a bigger catcher adjustment? If so - how much?

    Be thinking of some people you want me to look-up. I will hopefully post the top 100 by the end of the week.
    Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 09-22-2019, 06:27 PM.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

    Comment


    • #77
      So far, the results are closely matching our panel of experts' top 20, which is pretty gratifying.
      1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

      1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

      1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


      The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
      The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

      Comment


      • #78
        Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
        So far, the results are closely matching our panel of experts' top 20, which is pretty gratifying.
        The top 13 have basically been my top 13 for at least a decade. The order changes.

        Comment


        • #79
          I went x2-x3-x4 for postseason. Top 200 position players will be up by the time the weekend is over.
          PARC-D
          1 Walter Johnson 337
          2 Cy Young 316
          3 Roger Clemens 291
          4 Pete Alexander 233
          5 Kid Nichols 226
          6 Lefty Grove 221
          7 Tom Seaver 213
          8 Christy Mathewson 211
          9 Greg Maddux 206
          10 Randy Johnson 206
          11 Warren Spahn 188
          12 Pedro Martinez 174
          13 Bob Gibson 171
          14 Eddie Plank 160
          15 Tim Keefe 159
          16 Bert Blyleven 159
          17 Phil Niekro 156
          18 Curt Schilling 156
          19 John Clarkson 155
          20 Steve Carlton 154
          21 Mike Mussina 151
          22 Tom Glavine 150
          23 Robin Roberts 147
          24 Bob Feller 146
          25 Jim McCormick 140
          26 Gaylord Perry 139
          27 Fergie Jenkins 138
          28 Zack Grienke 138
          29 Old Hoss Radbourn 137
          30 Clayton Kershaw 134
          31 Justin Verlander 133
          32 Carl Hubbell 126
          33 Jim Palmer 125
          34 John Smoltz 124
          35 Bob Caruthers 124
          36 Roy Halladay 124
          37 Max Scherzer 124
          38 Ed Walsh 123
          39 Tommy Bond 122
          40 Hal Newhouser 121
          41 Kevin Brown 120
          42 Mariano Rivera 120
          43 Al Spalding 119
          44 Amos Rusie 118
          45 Charlie Buffinton 118
          46 Nolan Ryan 117
          47 Tony Mullane 117
          48 Wes Ferrell 117
          49 David Cone 116
          50 Rick Reuschel 114
          51 Pud Galvin 114
          52 Red Ruffing 112
          53 Ted Lyons 112
          54 Luis Tiant 112
          55 Juan Marichal 111
          56 Dazzy Vance 109
          57 Bret Saberhagen 108
          58 Vic Willis 107
          59 Cole Hamels 107
          60 Andy Pettitte 107
          61 Whitey Ford 107
          62 Stan Coveleski 107
          63 Don Drysdale 106
          64 Clark Griffith 106
          65 3-Finger Brown 104
          66 Rube Waddell 103
          67 Joe McGinnity 103
          68 Silver King 101
          69 Kevin Appier 101
          70 Red Faber 100
          71 Eddie Cicotte 100
          72 Johan Santana 100
          73 CC Sabathia 99
          74 Jim Bunning 99
          75 Chuck Finley 99
          76 Orel Hershiser 99
          77 Denis Eckersley 98
          78 Urban Shocker 98
          79 Dave Stieb 96
          80 Jim Whitney 96
          81 Mickey Welch 95
          82 Tommy John 95
          83 Tim Hudson 95
          84 George Uhle 94
          85 Sandy Koufax 94
          86 Babe Adams 93
          87 Dwight Gooden 93
          88 Roy Oswalt 92
          89 Bucky Walters 91
          90 Early Wynn 90
          91 Mark Buehrle 90
          92 Billy Pierce 90
          93 Tommy Bridges 89
          94 Bob Lemon 89
          95 Dizzy Trout 88
          96 Ron Guidry 87
          97 Frank Tanana 86
          98 Bobby Mathews 86
          99 Wilbur Cooper 86
          100 Nap Rucker 86
          1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

          1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

          1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


          The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
          The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
            I m definitley going to add a Domincnace factor. probably any WAA above 3. That is about where easy All-Star seasons and lowish Cy Young type seasons begin. WAA is definitely the baseline to go here as anything over WAR would just be crediting the difference in replacement value that pitchers from high I{ eras are already getting.

            Based on the overwhelming feedback I have received, I am sure you all can't wait.
            Regarding WAA-3, is that a bonus for any single season where a player had WAA above 3 or is it for a season when a player was on a WAA pace above 3. For example, if a player played half a season and was at 4 WAA is he getting a bonus here? The reason I am asking, well, I assume its for the whole season, so bonus wins above 3 for a season, but do you pace that out over shortened seasons, so in a 116 game season the player would get a bonus above 2.15. Is the bar set 5% lower in 154 game seasons? Should it be? Also, do you personally consider it to be better for a player to produce say 8 WAA in 162 games than 4 WAA in two "half" seasons?

            Comment


            • #81
              Originally posted by brett View Post

              Regarding WAA-3, is that a bonus for any single season where a player had WAA above 3 or is it for a season when a player was on a WAA pace above 3. For example, if a player played half a season and was at 4 WAA is he getting a bonus here? The reason I am asking, well, I assume its for the whole season, so bonus wins above 3 for a season, but do you pace that out over shortened seasons, so in a 116 game season the player would get a bonus above 2.15. Is the bar set 5% lower in 154 game seasons? Should it be? Also, do you personally consider it to be better for a player to produce say 8 WAA in 162 games than 4 WAA in two "half" seasons?
              I only prorate for strike-shortened or military shortened seasons if a player has 3.4 WAA in August and gets hurt, he only gest .4 extra PARC-D for that.

              The shortened-playing time for 154 game seasons will affect WAR, WAA, and WA3. Of course, those were lower LQ times too - so it will likely come out in a wash.

              Again, there is a lot more to look at when evaluating players than just PARC-D. PARC-D is meant to take what "everyone" uses (WAR) and add some obvious things that are easy to add and need to be considered if comparing players historically.

              Like I have said - this is somewhat similar to what Adam D. did before his Hall of Stats came out. He added WAR + WAA (but eliminated negative WAA seasons) + a few higher baseline components (Wins above 5 WAR and Wins above 8 WAR or something) + postseason (but it wasn't WPA). He does season-length adjustments throughout all baseball history (I think)

              The biggest differences is that mine weighes postseason rounds, includes situational hitting, includes catcher framing/defensive estimates, does not eliminate negative WAA seasons, and has just one extra baseline component (WA3)
              Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 09-29-2019, 04:02 PM.
              1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

              1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

              1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


              The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
              The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

              Comment


              • #82
                Matt, where does Murry Dickson rate according to PARC?
                "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                Comment


                • #83
                  Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
                  Matt, where does Murry Dickson rate according to PARC?
                  61 PARC-D. Not close to a HOFer, but not scrub either. A league average pitcher would have about 32 given the same playing-time.
                  1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                  1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                  1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                  The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                  The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                  Comment

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