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Top 50 Pitchers All-Tme according to PARC

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  • #91
    Originally posted by Toledo Inquisition View Post

    Any thoughts why this is so? In the past, when looking at park factors for his home stadia, I noticed some years with pitchers park factors, but nowhere near enough to account for a 0.80 ERA difference. I've never been able to reconcile why for Early.
    Not sure. His ERA+ was only 107 regardless. We know he had a major pitcher's park - but it seemed to help him even more than it "should have." Significanty so. Some of that was likley his own doing - which is why I only counted 1/4 of the effect. STILL enough to drop him from 89 to 82 PARC-D.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

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    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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    • #92
      Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post

      Not sure. His ERA+ was only 107 regardless. We know he had a major pitcher's park - but it seemed to help him even more than it "should have." Significanty so. Some of that was likley his own doing - which is why I only counted 1/4 of the effect. STILL enough to drop him from 89 to 82 PARC-D.
      The park factors for Cleveland tended towards pitching in the early 1950's and then swung to neutral or slightly hitting friendly. This coincided with Cleveland having a much stronger defense in the early 1950's opposed to later in the decade. I wonder if there is some interaction (watering the basepaths, etc.) that isn't so obvious this far distant.

      I'm not sure if EdTarbusz was around in that era, but maybe he has some knowledge?

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      • #93
        Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post

        Wow, can you share or when you do the next update, can you list players with a score of 80 or above in PARCD.
        I would like to more fully incorporate these into my personal analysis, if you don't hit 80, you will have difficulty being a HOF candidate (barring Negro Leagues or short-season players)
        Honestly, I am not sure what to do about this at all. Been going back-and-forth with brett and we both need Sultan to show up.

        According to the method proposed on the Progressing thread:

        We would divide Ryan's road ERA by the road factor of 1.03. That gives us an adjusted road ERA of 3.62. His league ERA for his career is 3.57. This would mean Ryan would have a BLEOW AVERAGE rrERA+. So of the 307 runs he was above average, this suggests all of them PLUS SOME were caused by park effects beyond what BBref is already adjusting for. Yes - as Brett has mentioned, ideally we would need to find rrERA+ for each season individually to make this work, but the results are still staggering to say the least.

        Now - effects this large make some sense for guys with massive drops like Wynn and Ruffing and other guys without great FIPs. but Ryan, due to his insane K totals was one of the least dependent on fielders and park pitchers in baseball history.

        I really have no idea what to do at this point. I absolutely feel that we need to do player-specific park adjustments. I just have no idea how to get there for pitchers at this point.
        1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

        1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

        1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


        The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
        The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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        • #94
          Looking at your most recent top 100 list, I have to ask where Early Wynn ranks?
          "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
          "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
          "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
          "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

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          • #95
            Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
            Looking at your most recent top 100 list, I have to ask where Early Wynn ranks?
            Wynn is at 83 PARC-D. So a few behin the top-100.

            60 WAR and 25 WAA is kinda on the lowish-side to begin with. With service time credit, he starts at only about 95 PARC-D even to begin with. He then lost 7 PARC-D due to rrERA+ park adjustments, -1 for postseason, and -4 in the clutch.
            1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

            1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

            1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


            The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
            The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

            Comment


            • #96
              I was comparing the top PARC-D list to the HOF and it struck me funny to see Wynn as the only name with your "HOF omissions" that didn't usually fall into that category.

              There are 73 MLB pitchers in Cooperstown. Removing ineligible players and counting down from the top using PARC-D, Tommy John (93) is your cutoff with Sandy Koufax (93) just ahead and Babe Adams (93) the best of the also-rans.

              Here are the 22 Hall of Famers who don't make your top 73 cut: Bender, Chesbro, Dean, Fingers, Gomez, Gossage, Grimes, Haines, Hoffman, Hoyt, Hunter, Joss, Lemon, Marquard, Morris, Pennock, Rixey, Smith, Sutter, Sutton, Wilhelm and Wynn.

              Whereas you have the following 22 non-HOFers in your top 73: Appier, Bond, Brown, Buffinton, Caruthers, Clemens, Cone, Ferrell, John, King, McCormick, Mullane, Pettitte, Reuschel, Saberhagen, Santana, Schilling, Shocker, Stieb, Tiant, Uhle and Whitney.

              Of course, this is all assuming that PARC-D is the HOF barometer, which I'm sure you wouldn't say definitively. I thought this would be a useful way, however, to comparatively examine how PARC-D could be used.

              Personally, I think the 19th century pitchers are still overrated. I'm not at all certain how best to approach rating the pre-1893 pitchers, but I'm certain there aren't this many in the top 73, or top 100 pitchers of all time.

              "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
              "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
              "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
              "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

              Comment


              • #97
                Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
                I was comparing the top PARC-D list to the HOF and it struck me funny to see Wynn as the only name with your "HOF omissions" that didn't usually fall into that category.

                There are 73 MLB pitchers in Cooperstown. Removing ineligible players and counting down from the top using PARC-D, Tommy John (93) is your cutoff with Sandy Koufax (93) just ahead and Babe Adams (93) the best of the also-rans.

                Here are the 22 Hall of Famers who don't make your top 73 cut: Bender, Chesbro, Dean, Fingers, Gomez, Gossage, Grimes, Haines, Hoffman, Hoyt, Hunter, Joss, Lemon, Marquard, Morris, Pennock, Rixey, Smith, Sutter, Sutton, Wilhelm and Wynn.

                Whereas you have the following 22 non-HOFers in your top 73: Appier, Bond, Brown, Buffinton, Caruthers, Clemens, Cone, Ferrell, John, King, McCormick, Mullane, Pettitte, Reuschel, Saberhagen, Santana, Schilling, Shocker, Stieb, Tiant, Uhle and Whitney.

                Of course, this is all assuming that PARC-D is the HOF barometer, which I'm sure you wouldn't say definitively. I thought this would be a useful way, however, to comparatively examine how PARC-D could be used.

                Personally, I think the 19th century pitchers are still overrated. I'm not at all certain how best to approach rating the pre-1893 pitchers, but I'm certain there aren't this many in the top 73, or top 100 pitchers of all time.
                Of course. I would need a LQ component to handle the 19th century guys. Not wanting to do that right now.

                With some slight changes (regression due to FIP for rrERA+ effects) my personal HOF does include some guy below John. Piere (90), Lemon (88), and Dean (86). Before doing this I had Oswalt (86), Hershiser (89) and Hudson (90) in my HOF. I need to reevaluate them going forward. Uhle at 94 is probably the highest-rated non 19th C guy not in my personal HOF.

                I would not say 92 is a personal cuttoff. I would be willing to listen to anyone between 85 and 95. As of now, I do not have any pitchers or position players over 95 or under 85in my HOF with the exception of some 19th century plyers (on the high side for pitchers and low for position players), a few relievers (Gossage and Wilhelm), or guys like Campy with unique segregation-based situations.
                1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                Comment


                • #98
                  That's a solid gray area, if you ask me. Well done, sir.
                  "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                  "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                  "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                  "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                  Comment


                  • #99
                    Where does David Wells land?
                    I don't see him as markedly different than Mark Buehrle, and Wells has come up on the Playoff Hall of Fame Project.
                    Thank you.
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                    • Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post
                      Where does David Wells land?
                      I don't see him as markedly different than Mark Buehrle, and Wells has come up on the Playoff Hall of Fame Project.
                      Thank you.
                      I don't have my list with me, but he is REALLY close. Like 84 or 85.
                      1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                      1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                      1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                      The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                      The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                      Comment

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