Seasons most over or underrated by WAR

[Floyd Gondolli]

This seems more appropriate for the Statistics forum than the History forum.

No kidding!!!! Yet another History Forum Thread that is rife with nothing but statistics.

[pedrosrotatorcuff]

Zack Britton's "pristine '16" season, where he went 47/47 on saves, is worth 4.1 bWAR. Yes, a modern closer, in 67IP, netted 4 WAR. I can only assume leverage played a very large role, but that seems like a huge reach. Hell, that was more than any of the starters on that O's team (Kevin Gausman was closest with 3.9). Very fishy.

[willshad]

I guess maybe some of Bonds' seasons were overrated? There are possible ones such as his 1987~1989 seasons.

Indeed. In 1989 Bonds had a 126 OPS+ , batted just .248, with 32 steals, and netted 8.0(!!) WAR. Mookie Betts is very similar to 1986-1989 Barry. In 2016 he had a 133 OPS+ , with just a.846 road OPS, but apparently had a borderline all time great season with 9.5 WAR. In 2017 Betts had just a 108 OPS+, and still netted 6.3 WAR.

[1905 Giants]

Indeed. In 1989 Bonds had a 126 OPS+ , batted just .248, with 32 steals, and netted 8.0(!!) WAR. Mookie Betts is very similar to 1986-1989 Barry. In 2016 he had a 133 OPS+ , with just a.846 road OPS, but apparently had a borderline all time great season with 9.5 WAR. In 2017 Betts had just a 108 OPS+, and still netted 6.3 WAR.

I'm sure theres some sort of reason.

[jerrylu42]

I'm sure theres some sort of reason.

I believe a lot of it is from the somewhat suspect "defensive WAR" which I simply couldn't trust a lot during those era when we simply don't have the advanced stats and information like we do today. Sure, Bonds was a gold-glove level great leftfielder with tremendous value on the basepaths, no questions, but I still don't think those qualities were able to inflate so much value on his WAR numbers. People from the 80s could even argue that it was Yaz who is actually considered the greatest fielding leftfielder of all time and not Bonds, so the defensive WAR during the era might be inflated for Bodns. This is why I believe WAR numbers shouldn't be everything when we measure a baseball player's greatness. Sure, it offers us a very objective tool to evaluate players and it does the correct evaluations most of the times with a much higher accuracy than any other baseball stats, but we still can't just use it as the ine and only guideline to measure a player's value.

Besides, I want to give a very special mention to the seemingly underrated Frank Robinson 1966 AL Triple Crown MVP season with only a good but not great 7.7 WAR. Look, his numbers look so similiar when being compared to Yaz's also fantastic 1967 AL Triple Crown MVP season which happened just in a year, and yielded a whopping 12.5 WAR. I just don't get how a very similar fantastic offensive season from both players with near equal stats resulted in a difference of 1 offensive WAR. And on the defensive side, was Robinson's defensive really so atrocious that resulted in probably being one of the worst denfensive WAR value an outfielder could get? I get that while Yaz was a better defender than Robinson at that stage of both players, both of their great seasons simply should not result in an unbelievable gap of 4.8 WAR, leaving Robinson's monstrous offensive season in a pitching-dominated era in the risk of being forgotten by certain people due to his good but not great WAR. I believe anyone will find it hard to explain the differences of both seasons with such a large 4.8 WAR gap in between them.

[GiambiJuice]

I believe a lot of it is from the somewhat suspect "defensive WAR" which I simply couldn't trust a lot during those era when we simply don't have the advanced stats and information like we do today. Sure, Bonds was a gold-glove level great leftfielder with tremendous value on the basepaths, no questions, but I still don't think those qualities were able to inflate so much value on his WAR numbers. People from the 80s could even argue that it was Yaz who is actually considered the greatest fielding leftfielder of all time and not Bonds, so the defensive WAR during the era might be inflated for Bodns. This is why I believe WAR numbers shouldn't be everything when we measure a baseball player's greatness. Sure, it offers us a very objective tool to evaluate players and it does the correct evaluations most of the times with a much higher accuracy than any other baseball stats, but we still can't just use it as the ine and only guideline to measure a player's value.

Besides, I want to give a very special mention to the seemingly underrated Frank Robinson 1966 AL Triple Crown MVP season with only a good but not great 7.7 WAR. Look, his numbers look so similiar when being compared to Yaz's also fantastic 1967 AL Triple Crown MVP season which happened just in a year, and yielded a whopping 12.5 WAR. I just don't get how a very similar fantastic offensive season from both players with near equal stats resulted in a difference of 1 offensive WAR. And on the defensive side, was Robinson's defensive really so atrocious that resulted in probably being one of the worst denfensive WAR value an outfielder could get? I get that while Yaz was a better defender than Robinson at that stage of both players, both of their great seasons simply should not result in an unbelievable gap of 4.8 WAR, leaving Robinson's monstrous offensive season in a pitching-dominated era in the risk of being forgotten by certain people due to his good but not great WAR. I believe anyone will find it hard to explain the differences of both seasons with such a large 4.8 WAR gap in between them.

Offensively, Robinson's 1966 and Yaz's 1967 were very, very close.

The biggest difference between them according to WAR was their defense. If WAR's fielding runs are to be taken seriously, '67 Yaz was arguably the best defensive outfielder in the league at +23 runs (and the second-best defender overall, behind only Brooks Robinson) whereas Robinson was significantly below average at -8 runs. That's a net difference of 31 runs on defense, i.e. 3+ WAR.

Another significant difference between them was in grounding into double plays. Robinson hit into 24 double plays in '66, just 1 GIDP behind the league lead. Yaz on the other hand, had just 5 GIDP in '67. It was a super fluky thing - his lowest GIDP total BY FAR in a 23-year career, including partial seasons!
Baseball-Reference gives Yaz +3 runs for double-play avoidance while Robinson is docked a few runs for hitting into so many of them. Not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things but it matters and it counts towards WAR.

Before a certain poster jumps down my throat, I am not saying we should accept all these numbers uncritically. It is certainly possible that Baseball-Reference underrates Robinson's defense, or overrates Yaz's, or both. I'm just showing why the WAR gap between them is as large as it is.

As to the general premise of this thread, I agree wholeheartedly in my gut (though I don't have the evidence to prove it) that Robinson's 1966 season was truly historic in terms of the value he provided to that team and that 7.7 WAR doesn't come close to capturing his impact. In fact, I have argued on this very site that Frank Robinson's 1966 may have been the most "perfect" season in MLB history.

[jerrylu42]

Offensively, Robinson's 1966 and Yaz's 1967 were very, very close.

The biggest difference between them according to WAR was their defense. If WAR's fielding runs are to be taken seriously, '67 Yaz was arguably the best defensive outfielder in the league at +23 runs (and the second-best defender overall, behind only Brooks Robinson) whereas Robinson was significantly below average at -8 runs. That's a net difference of 31 runs on defense, i.e. 3+ WAR.

Another significant difference between them was in grounding into double plays. Robinson hit into 24 double plays in '66, just 1 GIDP behind the league lead. Yaz on the other hand, had just 5 GIDP in '67. It was a super fluky thing - his lowest GIDP total BY FAR in a 23-year career, including partial seasons!
Baseball-Reference gives Yaz +3 runs for double-play avoidance while Robinson is docked a few runs for hitting into so many of them. Not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things but it matters and it counts towards WAR.

Before a certain poster jumps down my throat, I am not saying we should accept all these numbers uncritically. It is certainly possible that Baseball-Reference underrates Robinson's defense, or overrates Yaz's, or both. I'm just showing why the WAR gap between them is as large as it is.

As to the general premise of this thread, I agree wholeheartedly in my gut (though I don't have the evidence to prove it) that Robinson's 1966 season was truly historic in terms of the value he provided to that team and that 7.7 WAR doesn't come close to capturing his impact. In fact, I have argued on this very site that Frank Robinson's 1966 may have been the most "perfect" season in MLB history.

Thanks for your clear explanations from a statistical standpoint. These are all well-made explanations and I guess I can't argue with any of your points here. Thanks for letting me understand why there's such a big gap of WAR between both Robinson and Yaz's fantastic seasons!

[dgarza]

The biggest difference between them according to WAR was their defense. If WAR's fielding runs are to be taken seriously, '67 Yaz was arguably the best defensive outfielder in the league at +23 runs (and the second-best defender overall, behind only Brooks Robinson) whereas Robinson was significantly below average at -8 runs. That's a net difference of 31 runs on defense, i.e. 3+ WAR.

Traditional fielding stats also illustrate the difference in fielding.


Frank Robinson 1966
PO - 254 - 11th in AL among OF - his 237 in AL RF was 5th
A - 4 - 27th in AL among OF - 7th among AL RF
E - 4 - 15th in AL among OF - his 2 in RF was 8th among AL RF, his 2 in LF was 9th among AL LF
DP - 0 - 37th in AL among OF - 11th among AL RF
Fld% - .985 - ~7th in AL among OF - his .992 in RF lead AL RF by 10 percentage points over 2nd
RF/9 - 1.72 - ~17-20th (~4th lowest) in AL among OF - his 1.84 in RF was ~5th in AL RF, .10 below AL RF average
RF/G - 1.71 - ~15-17th in AL among OF - his 1.81 in RF was ~5th in AL RF, .13 below AL RF average

Carl Yastrzemski 1967
PO - 297 - 4th in AL among OF - his 289 in LF lead AL LF by 13.3% of 2nd place
A - 13 - 4th in AL among OF - 1st among AL LF
E - 7 - 4th in AL among OF - 1st among AL LF
DP - 1 - 18th among AL OF - 6th among AL LF
Fld% - .978 - ~15th in AL among OF - his .977 in LF was 3rd in AL LF
RF/9 - 2.05 - ~15th in AL among OF - his 2.01 in LF was 2nd in AL LF, .14 above AL LF average
RF/G - 1.93 - ~10th in AL among OF - his 1.88 in LF was 2nd in AL LF, .01 above AL LF average


I am wondering if much of the difference in defense came down to range (and possibly arm).

[willshad]

Offensively, Robinson's 1966 and Yaz's 1967 were very, very close.

The biggest difference between them according to WAR was their defense. If WAR's fielding runs are to be taken seriously, '67 Yaz was arguably the best defensive outfielder in the league at +23 runs (and the second-best defender overall, behind only Brooks Robinson) whereas Robinson was significantly below average at -8 runs. That's a net difference of 31 runs on defense, i.e. 3+ WAR.

Another significant difference between them was in grounding into double plays. Robinson hit into 24 double plays in '66, just 1 GIDP behind the league lead. Yaz on the other hand, had just 5 GIDP in '67. It was a super fluky thing - his lowest GIDP total BY FAR in a 23-year career, including partial seasons!
Baseball-Reference gives Yaz +3 runs for double-play avoidance while Robinson is docked a few runs for hitting into so many of them. Not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things but it matters and it counts towards WAR.

Before a certain poster jumps down my throat, I am not saying we should accept all these numbers uncritically. It is certainly possible that Baseball-Reference underrates Robinson's defense, or overrates Yaz's, or both. I'm just showing why the WAR gap between them is as large as it is.

As to the general premise of this thread, I agree wholeheartedly in my gut (though I don't have the evidence to prove it) that Robinson's 1966 season was truly historic in terms of the value he provided to that team and that 7.7 WAR doesn't come close to capturing his impact. In fact, I have argued on this very site that Frank Robinson's 1966 may have been the most "perfect" season in MLB history.

You forgot to mention that WAR's inability to discern huge home/road splits also helps Yaz a great deal. In neutral stadiums, Robinson in 1966 was a better hitter than Yaz in 1967, who only won the triple crown because he was able to play Fenway for 27 HR, 74 RBI, and a 1.106 OPS. Robinson had the better season.

[1905 Giants]

You forgot to mention that WAR's inability to discern huge home/road splits also helps Yaz a great deal. In neutral stadiums, Robinson in 1966 was a better hitter than Yaz in 1967, who only won the triple crown because he was able to play Fenway for 27 HR, 74 RBI, and a 1.106 OPS. Robinson had the better season.

Does Fenway have particular effect on all players that can be mathematically calculated? I've never done much research into park effects.

[Floyd Gondolli]

Does Fenway have particular effect on all players that can be mathematically calculated? I've never done much research into park effects.

Yes. You might really enjoy these, for example.

https://www.amazon.com/Baseballs-All.../dp/0691115575

https://www.amazon.com/Ballparks-Dea...s=books&sr=1-1

[Floyd Gondolli]

Does Fenway have particular effect on all players that can be mathematically calculated? I've never done much research into park effects.

http://www.seamheads.com/ballparks/b...=BOS07&tab=pf3

[GiambiJuice]

You forgot to mention that WAR's inability to discern huge home/road splits also helps Yaz a great deal. In neutral stadiums, Robinson in 1966 was a better hitter than Yaz in 1967, who only won the triple crown because he was able to play Fenway for 27 HR, 74 RBI, and a 1.106 OPS. Robinson had the better season.

To be be fair, Yaz was 2nd and 3rd in the league in road home runs and RBIs respectively.

But I agree, Robinson was a slightly better hitter in '66 than Yaz in '67.