Pedro vs Maddux

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Pedro is regarded very highly around here, and rightfully so. I expected him to beat Sandy Koufax in that thread, but he is absolutely dominating it. That made me curious as to how you all think he stacks up to Maddux. At their best, they were roughly equal. Yes, Pedro had better power numbers, but it's hard to beat Maddux in '94 and '95. Depending on how you define a peak, you can say that Pedro's absolute peak was longer, but Maddux has been an overall effective pitcher for much longer than Pedro. How do you rank them?

[brett]

The real question mark I think people have with Maddux is that his two greatest seasons were strike shortened.

He has over 4800 innings which puts him in the very high range there and his 134 ERA+ is basically just a little behind Alexander, and Cy Young.

By the way, his '94 OPS+ against was 33! and '95 was 28!!!

Koufax' best year it was 48.

Pedro is really the only guy who we have numbers on who topped, OR CAME ANYWHERE NEAR an OPS+ against of 33 or 28

In '97 he was at 40, in '99 he was 38 and in '00 he was 21 and in '99 and '00 he barely pitched more innings than Maddux in '94 and '95.

[Blackout]

top seasons in order of

ERA+:
pedro: 291, 243, 219, 210, 202
maddux: 271, 262, 189, 187, 171

WHIP
pedro: .737, .923, .923, .932, .949
maddux: .811, .896, .946, .980, 1.011

[Windy City Fan]

The difference is Maddux put up those eye popping ERA+ numbers while be a workhorse pitcher. In four of Maddux's five best ERA+ seasons he was also the league leader in IP. In his 6th best ERA+ season he was also the league leader in IP. Maddux has 17 seasons in the top ten for IP. He's 16th overall for career IP.

Pedro, on the other hand, has never finished higher than 4th in the league in IP. In fact, he only has six seasons where he cracks the top ten. Martinez is 189th in career IP, just 50 innings ahead of fellow "great" Tim Wakefield!

I think Maddux's MASSIVE edge in quantity overtakes Pedro's edge in quality rate stats. And yes Maddux's best seasons were strike shortened, but in both seasons he not only lead the league in ERA+ and WHIP, he also lead it in IP, Co, and Sho, proving it was no fluke of a small sample size, but just a truly historic two year peak.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

top seasons in order of

ERA+:
pedro: 291, 243, 219, 210, 202
maddux: 271, 262, 189, 187, 171

WHIP
pedro: .737, .923, .923, .932, .949
maddux: .811, .896, .946, .980, 1.011

It seems to me that you're trying to make it look like it's a no-brainer that Pedro's better, but you're only looking at their top 5 seasons. Let's see what happens if we continue where you left off on those lists...

Seasons 6-10, ERA+
Maddux: 166, 162, 159, 153, 146
Pedro: 163, 145, 125, 123, 117

Seasons 6-10, WHIP
Maddux: 1.033, 1.049, 1.060, 1.071, 1.133
Pedro: 1.039, 1.091, 1.151, 1.171, 1.195

I'm only considering seasons in which they pitched at least 162 innings (enough to qualify for the ERA title). I'm guessing you had done the same thing. I listed 6 through 10 and stopped at 10 because Pedro pitched 162+ innings in a season exactly 10 times. We're now looking at those 10 seasons of Pedro's and 11 of Maddux's seasons (based on his tenth best totals for ERA+ and WHIP coming in two different seasons). Of those 10 seasons of Pedro's, he pitched at least 200 innings in 7 of them. Of those 11 seasons of Maddux's, he pitched at least 200 innings in 10 of them, including the 2 strike shortened ones. In the one he didn't pitch 200 innings, 2002, he pitched 199.3 innings. Maddux also pitched 200 or more innings in 8 additional seasons that we aren't even considering. In summary:

Number of seasons Maddux has pitched 200+ innings: 18
Number of seasons Pedro has pitched 200+ innings: 7

Top seasons in terms of innings pitched:
Maddux: 268, 267, 263, 251, 249.3, 249, 245, 238.3, 237, 233
Pedro: 241.3, 233.7, 217, 217, 217, 216.7, 213.3, 199.3, 194.7, 186.7

Career IP:
Maddux: 4827.3
Pedro: 2677

Number of seasons Maddux has had an ERA+ of at least 150: 9
Number of seasons Pedro has had an ERA+ of at least 150: 6

The point I'm trying to make is that Maddux's arm is made of rubber compared to Pedro's. Heck, a 42 year old Maddux is still pitching more innings than a 36 year old Pedro. While Pedro at his best may have been slightly better than Maddux at his best, Maddux has been substantially more durable, which more than makes up that difference.

Please don't point to the career rate stats, because the main reason Pedro's are better is that Maddux has had a normal decline over the last 5 years, whereas Pedro figuratively dropped off a cliff in his early 30s and hasn't pitched a full season since 2005. Maddux shouldn't be penalized for this, he should be rewarded for remaining an effective pitcher into his 40s, albeit less effective than he was in his prime. If Pedro proves me wrong by showing that he still has some gas in the tank, then I'll reconsider my position, but that doesn't look likely at this point.

Either way, their both elite pitchers, but I favor Maddux.

[Minstrel]

All the numbers have been posted, so I won't post any. I have Maddux ahead. Maddux at his very best was close to Martinez at his very best. Martinez may be the greatest pitcher in history in pure peak, yet Maddux is still quite close in peak, in terms of pure quality. When you also factor in innings pitched, I think Maddux was as good or better in peak. Maddux has a more consistently strong ten-year prime (in both quality and innings) and Maddux easily wins career value.

The only standard which I'd put Martinez ahead is, "If you had to pick a pitcher to pitch one game at their very highest level, who would you take?" I'd take Martinez over any other pitcher in history...yet Maddux is not far behind at all. In every other standard, I have Maddux ahead.

[DoubleX]

This is a somewhat ambiguous question. In terms of pure pitching talent, I have to go with Pedro, but in terms of value, I have to go with Maddux because he was a workhorse while Pedro left a lot of innings, and thus potential wins out there for his team to rely upon lesser pitchers. In their primes, Pedro would put up some truly impressive numbers, but at the end of the day, Maddux was probably doing more for his team. I've said before when comparing Pedro to Koufax - when you're getting up into very high ERA+ figures, you're mostly talking about aesthetics. Whether you have a 190 ERA+ or a 250 ERA+, either way you're dominating to an extremely high degree and your team has a great chance to win. Given that both pitchers are giving their teams a great chance at winning, I'll take the one that's doing it more often and relying on bullpens less.

[Windy City Fan]

The only standard which I'd put Martinez ahead is, "If you had to pick a pitcher to pitch one game at their very highest level, who would you take?" I'd take Martinez over any other pitcher in history...yet Maddux is not far behind at all. In every other standard, I have Maddux ahead.

I wouldn't take Martinez even in that situation. The reason being his lack of endurance would force me to rely on my bullpen to finish the game. I much rather get 9 innings of Maddux or Johnson or Gibson or whoever than 7 innings of Martinez and 2 relievers.

If you told me I needed 6 innings from the starter because I had 3 Mariano Rivera clones to finish out the game, then yeah, I'd go with Pedro.

[Minstrel]

I wouldn't take Martinez even in that situation. The reason being his lack of endurance would force me to rely on my bullpen to finish the game. I much rather get 9 innings of Maddux or Johnson or Gibson or whoever than 7 innings of Martinez and 2 relievers.

In any particular game, Martinez wasn't a short-lived starter. He went deep into a lot of games. A lot of his lack of innings was injury or being shut down, not so much being a six-inning starter. At least, that's my perception...I haven't researched that.

[DoubleX]

In any particular game, Martinez wasn't a short-lived starter. He went deep into a lot of games. A lot of his lack of innings was injury or being shut down, not so much being a six-inning starter. At least, that's my perception...I haven't researched that.

In the postseason, where the stakes are the biggest and aces often rise to the occasion and make a difference, Pedro's durability is not particularly impressive. The longest he's ever pitched in a postseason start is 7.1 innings. In 11 postseason starts, I think it's fair to expect one of the greatest pitchers to have pitched more than 7.1 innings at least once.

Maddux in comparison has exceeded 7.1 IP in a postseason start 6 tiimes, gone at least 8 innings 4 times (twice in World Series) and pitched 2 complete games (including once in the World Series).

[csh19792001]

This one's not even close.

Maddux, by far.

He's everything Pedro was at his best, plus much more quantity.

[Blackout]

This one's not even close.

Maddux, by far.

He's everything Pedro was at his best, plus much more quantity.

LOL maddux couldnt strike out 9 batters per 9 IP if his life counted on it

[bob]

Maddux has far more value. Much longer career and far more IP per season. Much more consistant and not that far behind in absolute peak.
Pedro had one of the greatest peaks of all time but outside of that he drops off pretty quickly in my view. Maddux had a similarly dominant peak but his career numbers dwarf Pedro.

[Westlake]

This is a somewhat ambiguous question. In terms of pure pitching talent, I have to go with Pedro, but in terms of value, I have to go with Maddux

What he said.

[fenrir]

with all due respect to the great pedro, maddux is my pick easily. i have decided to move pedro ahead of koufax though (his numbers are just too good to ignore)