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Derek Jeter...4,000 Hits?

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  • Derek Jeter...4,000 Hits?

    Obviously...I'm a huge baseball fan. Mostly the vintage part of it.
    However, yes...I DO follow the modern game. Can't get enough...and I've never posted a modern question on this board. However, I'm also a Yankee fan..(sorry)....but this question is really based on stats etc. So here goes...(and this question has been on my mind the past few years):

    Is Derek Jeter headed towards 4,000+ hits???
    Of course there are a lot of variables that could affect him...but all things considered, he might have a legitimate run at Pete Rose's hit record! At his age and output, he really might make it. You can all click over to baseball-reference to do the math if ya' like....but he really is on pace to break the record. I'm actually amazed that this question hasn't come up before! (Sorry if it has). I'd have to say....if Derek decides to play long enough, he will break the record IMHO.

    What do ya think???
    Say hello on Twitter @BSmile & Facebook "Baseball by BSmile"

  • #2
    Let's be generous and say that he has six more 200-hit seasons left in him after this one, in which he might get 100 more if he does well. That would put him at roughly 3750 at age 40.

    On the Yankees board, one of the team's biggest fans suspects that he sees signs that Jeter may be in decline.

    Comment


    • #3
      Jeter's losing (a) his throwing arm (b) his power, and (c) his speed. He's become a terrible fielding slap hitter with a good eye.

      He'll be out of baseball by 38.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by SABR Matt View Post
        Jeter's losing (a) his throwing arm (b) his power, and (c) his speed. He's become a terrible fielding slap hitter with a good eye.

        He'll be out of baseball by 38.
        Not only will Jeter not get 4,000 hits but A-Rod will end up with more career hits as well simply because A-Rod will probably play into his early 40s and Jeter will not.
        Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

        Comment


        • #5
          Agreed with that.

          Jeter is following the classic "line drive hitting middle infielder" path...For a similar example, see Barry Larkin. He's heading for a slow, painful death.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by SABR Matt View Post
            Agreed with that.

            Jeter is following the classic "line drive hitting middle infielder" path...For a similar example, see Barry Larkin. He's heading for a slow, painful death.
            Agreed, but lets not give the "Jeter stinks/ Jeter is the most overrated player in baseball history" crowd too much ammunition - okay!
            1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

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            1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


            The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
            The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

            Comment


            • #7
              Well Jeter is painfully overrated...but that still makes him a very good player.

              I can see Jeter turning into Placido Polanco except with no glove pretty soon here. .300 hitting with zero power and decreasing walk rate (as he dials down the ambition to keep his average up).

              Comment


              • #8
                Jeter's numbers are down this year but one of the main reasons why is because he got hit in the wrist earlier in the year. He had about a 15 game period after getting hit where he was brutally bad, just pathetic at the plate. I think he struggled to hit .100 over the stretch. But after those 15 games he's been solid. His numbers over the last 30 or so games are typical Jeter numbers.

                But 4000 Hits? No chance.

                Pete Rose stopped being effective in 1979. At that point in his career he had 3,372 hits in 2,668 games. But he went on to play 894 more games to rack up 884 more hits to set the All-Time record.

                I think Jeter will finish somewhere in the range of 3100-3400, I think he'll end his career at that point. I don't think he'll extend his career for 900 more games for the sole purpose of setting the record like Rose did.

                SABR Matt, surprisingly Jeter's defense has been A LOT better this year. I have no idea why this is, but he's shown more range this year than I've seen in a long time from him. Maybe it's because of the extra work he put on his lateral movements in the off-season this year or maybe it's because Girardi's positioning him better than Torre did, but Jeter's played much better in the field and the numbers back it up. Whether it's an abberration or the real thing remains to be seen.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Wow...his RZR jumped from near .800 to .867...that's worth further study. I suspect it's a fluke in the long run, but it'd be interesting to see what was causing it.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    In anything, I think A-rod has a better chance than Jeter. Cobb had more hits by A-Rod's age and Rose had less. This is of course assuming that A-rod manages to average around 176 hits a season for the remainder of his contract. A million things can go wrong between now and then.

                    I like Jeter, but I have a feeling that his best years are behind him. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get to 3000 hits, but 4000 hits is an even bigger stretch for him than it is for A-rod who it is also quite a stretch for.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
                      In anything, I think A-rod has a better chance than Jeter. Cobb had more hits by A-Rod's age and Rose had less. This is of course assuming that A-rod manages to average around 176 hits a season for the remainder of his contract. A million things can go wrong between now and then.

                      I like Jeter, but I have a feeling that his best years are behind him. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get to 3000 hits, but 4000 hits is an even bigger stretch for him than it is for A-rod who it is also quite a stretch for.
                      Here are the top-10 in hits through age 32.

                      Code:
                      2713  Ty Cobb
                      2476  Rogers Hornsby
                      2434  Hank Aaron
                      2407  Robin Yount
                      2370  Jimmie Foxx 
                      2366  Mel Ott 	
                      2334  A-Rod  
                      2320  Vada Pinson
                      2307  Joe Medwick
                      2301  Willie Keeler
                      A-Rod needs 65 hits the rest of the season to pass Yount and 101 hits to pass Aaron. He'll likely pass Yount but not Aaron. The 4th most hits through age 32 is very impressive.
                      Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by SABR Matt View Post
                        Jeter's losing (a) his throwing arm (b) his power, and (c) his speed. He's become a terrible fielding slap hitter with a good eye.

                        He'll be out of baseball by 38.
                        Good, then Rodriguez can play where he should have been playing all along and the Yanks can go out and sign David Wright to take over at third.
                        "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                        "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                        "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                        "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Classic View Post
                          David Wright to take over at third.
                          He had a great catch tonight.

                          As for the thread: no, I don't see Jeter as a contender for 4,000 hits, but I wish him the best if that is his goal.
                          “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and to shame the devil.” Walter Lippmann

                          "Fill in any figure you want for that boy [Mantle]. Whatever the figure, it's a deal." - Branch Rickey

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Sweet, I'm waiting for Jeter to change his name to Julio Franco II and play forever.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Jeter wont get to 4k hits. He'll be lucky to get over 3500. He doesn't have anything that will likely keep him in the game well into his 40's other than godlike status in New York Once they find a better SS Jeter is in trouble.
                              And unlike Arod he wont have historic milestones to aim for that will keep him in the game longer.
                              Ichiro combined career stats suggest he'll still have to play into his 40's to approach 4k hits, and Ichiro is a far better hit collector than Jeter.

                              Comment

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