If Gehrig Lived......

[wamby]

Quite possible, but rather hard to believe. If he had a nice quiet office job next to a window, overlooking a streaming river and chirping birds, would he have suffered the same disease? Would his typing wpm speed have gone down and he just couldn't figure out why?

This guy literally put himself through hell to step onto the ballfield day in and day out. Just can't imagine the mental and physical strain didn't play a part, but maybe not.

More likely he would start falling down or have trouble with muscular activities like swallowing.

[Elvis]

Imo...

1941 would have been Lou's last season. Knowing his character, he would've enlisted after Pearl Harbor.

[DoubleX]

Glad you liked it. I would love to see the movie just to see that Bronx based man out in the wild west.
Bill James did forecast a 'what if' analysis and it is cited in the Luckiest Man book on page 222. Of course, like any 'what if' analysis involving projections of this type it is based on a lot of speculation. Here goes

Home Runs: 689
BA: Lifetime .330
Hits: 3928
RBIs: 2,879 (which is about 600 more than the current holder Aaron)
Walks: 2,475
The walks and RBI numbers per James are not unreasonable.
'but these are not unreasonable numbers.
They only look unreasonable because they are so extraordinary.'

I think all of those projections are pushing the limits of reason. I don't think Gehrig would have hit 200 more homeruns and 1200 more hits after age 35, which are what he'd have to do to get to those numbers. I think 650 homeruns is a stretch and 600-625 seems more likely, while 3400-3600 hits seems about right. Still very impressive though.

[Brownie31]

Rawhide

Glad you liked it. I would love to see the movie just to see that Bronx based man out in the wild west.
Bill James did forecast a 'what if' analysis and it is cited in the Luckiest Man book on page 222. Of course, like any 'what if' analysis involving projections of this type it is based on a lot of speculation. Here goes

Home Runs: 689
BA: Lifetime .330
Hits: 3928
RBIs: 2,879 (which is about 600 more than the current holder Aaron)
Walks: 2,475
The walks and RBI numbers per James are not unreasonable.
'but these are not unreasonable numbers.
They only look unreasonable because they are so extraordinary.'

Johnny: There are several copies of the dvd of "Rawhide" for sale on eBay. Most are under $10.00 and several under $5.00. Brownie31

[Bill Burgess]

Think I'll take a shot and guess some estimates. My guesses are based on his 1937 stats, and assume no injuries and all good, solid seasons, which in itself is perhaps too optimistic. But oh well, here goes the musings of an idle mind.

Year--------age-------RBI--------HR
1937--------34--------150-------35, (last healthy year)
1938---------35--------140-------35
1939---------36--------130-------32
1940---------37--------120-------30
1941---------38--------115-------28
1942---------39--------110-------25
1943---------40--------100-------23
1944---------41---------80-------15
--------------------------------------
totals------------------795-------188
career totals-----------2675------652

[wamby]

Think I'll take a shot and guess some estimates. My guesses are based on his 1937 stats, and assume no injuries and all good, solid seasons, which in itself is perhaps too optimistic. But oh well, here goes the musings of an idle mind.

Year--------age-------RBI--------HR
1937--------34--------150-------35, (last healthy year)
1938---------35--------140-------35
1939---------36--------130-------32
1940---------37--------120-------30
1941---------38--------115-------28
1942---------39--------110-------25
1943---------40--------100-------23
1944---------41---------80-------15
--------------------------------------
totals------------------795-------188
career totals-----------2675------652

Bill
You don't think Gehrig would have hit more than 15 HRs against war-time pitching? Even with the balatta ball, I think Gehrig would have put up decent numbers, especially considering his age, in 1944 and 1945.

[wamby]

1941 would have been Lou's last season. Knowing his character, he would've enlisted after Pearl Harbor.

Gehrig would have been too old, and considering the wera and tear on his body he may been declared 4-F.

[Bill Burgess]

You don't think Gehrig would have hit more than 15 HRs against war-time pitching? Even with the balatta ball, I think Gehrig would have put up decent numbers, especially considering his age, in 1944 and 1945.

Who knows? I was trying to chart a gentle, optimistic career path that tapered as a down ramp. If he had teed off on wartime pitching, maybe he'd never have hung them up.

Bill

[wamby]

Who knows? I was trying to chart a gentle, optimistic career path that tapered as a down ramp. If he had teed off on wartime pitching, maybe he'd never have hung them up.

Bill

My belief is that he would have played until the end of the war, become a coach for McCarthy in 1946 and would have replaced McCarthy as manager (instead of Bill Dickey).

[Brian McKenna]

my belief is that he would have played until he retired, raised money for war bonds, attended babe's funeral, become a movie personality starring as a quiet western hero in a bunch of audie murphy films, stopped by the yankee clubhouse every now and again until stengel chucked him out, sat at home mesmerized by the boob tube, have a few beers and kiss his wife and kids good night

[DoubleX]

I imagine like many other older veterans that hung on through the war years and 40's (Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott, Bill Dickey, Paul Waner, Joe Medwick), I think Gehrig would have become more of a part-time player by that time.

[Bill Burgess]

My belief is that he would have played until the end of the war, become a coach for McCarthy in 1946 and would have replaced McCarthy as manager (instead of Bill Dickey).

I find that a reasonable scenario.

[Bill Burgess]

I think he would have ended up playing Gary Cooper in 'The Pride of Hollywood".

Maybe even starred with Willima Bendix in 'The Babe Ruth Story'.

Bill

[Elvis]

Gehrig would have been too old, and considering the wera and tear on his body he may been declared 4-F.

Wrong. He was 2 years younger than Clark Gable was for example. Gable (as did many Hollywood stars) enlisted and served in the North African theatre in the army tank corp. I seriously doubt Gehrig would've been 4-F.

[Brownie31]

My belief is that he would have played until the end of the war, become a coach for McCarthy in 1946 and would have replaced McCarthy as manager (instead of Bill Dickey).

wamby: Excellent scenario. Carrying it further, he could have been a success as a manager well into the fifties and maybe even early sixties (he was 13 years younger than Stengel.) Just imagine Gehrig managing the 1961 Yankees with Mantle and Maris in their home run duel. Think of his perspective having lived through 1927 himself! Brownie31