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16th Greatest Pitcher: Will Smokey Joe whip Carlton?

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  • #16
    Originally posted by BigRon View Post
    >Hubbell, Roberts, Ford, Marichal? I need to be convinced.

    It would be worthwhile to know who you prefer to any of the above 4, and why, before any "convincing" is attempted.
    Many others have named Hubbell, Roberts, Ford, and Marichal. (Brown, Hubbell, Ford, and Marichal are the current leaders among those who are not on my own ballot. I overlooked Brown or confused him with Roberts in writing a couple days ago.)

    Those I prefer for the top twenty are the runners up on my current ballot: Clarkson from the 1880s; Carlton, Niekro, and Perry from the 1970s. The obvious arguments against them may be that it is a mistake to put so many early pitchers in the top twenty (Clarkson makes one) and that it is a mistake to take so many 1970s pitchers (the trio makes four or five contemporaries with Seaver and perhaps Gibson).

    My argument for the trio is essentially that they accomplished so much quantity and that their performances are almost impossible to distinguish. I'm sensitive to the question, is it plausible that one generation provided so many of the very best? But it seems "impossible" to me that many pitchers may be slotted between Carlton, Niekro, and Perry.

    If one must be negative, my arguments against Brown and Ford are everyone's arguments against them; the only question is how much weight to give those arguments. Their season workloads were relatively light, their careers only medium long, and they benefited extremely from good team fielding support.

    Marichal shares the medium-L career and he doesn't start with the gaudy ERA+ that grabs attention for Brown and Ford. It's a surprise to me that he should be mentioned at this stage. If he gets credit as the first great pitcher from Latin America, he gets discredit for hitting Roseboro over the head with a baseball bat. I suspect that we are asked to set aside both points here.(?)

    --
    By the way, the Hall of Merit last week completed rank-order voting for the top twenty pitchers who retired before 2003. They put Feller, Hubbell, and Clarkson clearly behind Carlton but clearly ahead of Roberts, Niekro, and Perry. In terms of this series which has already named the big four recent pitchers, that is Carlton at #16; Feller 17 (with Williams in his place up ahead); Hubbell and Clarkson at 18/19; Roberts, Niekro, and Perry at ranks 20/21/22; then a gap that is exceptionally clear unless some post-2003 pitchers fill it. The slashes mean too close to call one by one.
    Last edited by Paul Wendt; 10-14-2009, 08:13 PM.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Paul Wendt View Post
      the Hall of Merit last week completed rank-order voting for the top twenty pitchers who retired before 2003.
      Here is a link to the official results thread, which was not available last week.
      Hall of Merit pitchers ranking, based on voting 1 to 20 in rank order (among 63 HOM pitchers).
      The "Discussion" and "Ballot" threads for combined pitchers still show up in the sidebar. Later, check the archives.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Paul Wendt View Post
        the Hall of Merit last week completed rank-order voting for the top twenty pitchers who retired before 2003.
        Paul, I am astonished- and dismayed- that the Hall of Merit did not rank Juan Marichal among the TOP 38 pitchers who retired before 2003! I find this to be inconceivable, and for me at least, casts doubt upon the credibility of that group.

        I respect a lot of your posts, so this is not directed principally at you. However, I saw both Marichal and Gibson pitch many times. They were both great pitchers. But to place one 11th all time and the other completely off the board is absurd. Until his arm injury due to a botched injection resulting in nerve damage, Marichal was AT LEAST Gibson's equal- in my opinion he was better, and the data seems to support that. Marichal had the greatest command of any pitcher of that era, and was universally feared by other teams. Gibson got the glare of the World Series spotlight and performed admirably, and he had one amazing outlier season- all to his credit. But, he wasn't better than Marichal and that is not just my opinion. Baseball people, pundits, and fans of the time viewed them as equals- behind only Sandy Koufax.

        By the way, at that time I was a diehard Dodger fan and was appalled by Marichal's bat incident. I thought he got off too lightly at the time, but that incident does nothing to diminish his record or performance.

        I know this has been talked about before in another thread, but I'm forced to comment in light of the ratings you posted.

        Comment


        • #19
          Steve Carlton
          Carl Hubbell
          Whitey Ford
          Three Finger Brown
          Jim Palmer

          Comment


          • #20
            Ryan is tough to sort out.

            He projects to actually a much better 340-276 record just if we give him AVERAGE RUN SUPPORT using pythag methods and not even worrying about bumping up no-decisions.

            Adjusting no-decisions would give him another 9 wins making his record 349-276.

            If we gave him the defensive adjustments and ballpark and pullpen adjustments that SABRMatt estimates, his record jumps to 371-245 (this doesn't tend to help turning no-decisions into wins).

            On the other hand, Matt does not account for situational pitching.

            With the bases empty (12904 plate apps), he allowed .191/.298/.279
            With men on base (9665 plate apps), he allowed .221/.320/.325

            How do we account for that? All time greats typically get hit 3-5% worse with runners on base over a long career, but he got hit about 13% worse in terms of OPS+ (than overall rates).

            My working model is that with all of the positive adjustments and the negative effect of pitching with runners on base, Ryan's effective ERA+ is somewhere between 114.5 and 120
            Last edited by brett; 10-25-2009, 08:40 AM.

            Comment


            • #21
              M Brown's and Jim Palmer's and also Addie Joss' defenses helped them substantially-like near 10 points of ERA+ but did they "let" them by allowing more contact?

              Hubbell does not look much better than Schilling, Smoltz, K. Brown, if we adjust a little for league depth. Where does he fit in?

              Comment


              • #22
                1. Ryan
                2. Brown
                3. Marichal
                4. Carlton
                5. Williams

                Comment


                • #23
                  more about HOM ranking

                  Originally posted by BigRon View Post
                  Paul, I am astonished- and dismayed- that the Hall of Merit did not rank Juan Marichal among the TOP 38 pitchers who retired before 2003! I find this to be inconceivable, and for me at least, casts doubt upon the credibility of that group.
                  I expect to say more about these pitchers as they turn up here in the BBF series, primarily in the 20s ranks, I suppose.

                  For now,

                  1.
                  The Hall of Merit Pitcher Rankings (thread for election results and aftermath discussion) is official but it doesn't officially identify the #20 pitcher must less #38. --or I should say they are merely the twentieth and thirty-eight place finishers in a contest where voters all ranked #1 to #20.

                  In advance I suggested that the top fifteen should be considered official rankings but interpretation is officially left to the reader. In fact the huge gap between #18 and #19 in the official scores shows clearly to me that readers should be confident about the eighteen. If the ballot were 15-deep or 25-deep or the scoring system were revised (with the same voters), it is likely that the same eighteen pitchers would have the highest scores.

                  The aftermath discussion focuses on this issue in conjunction with Robin Roberts #16 and Ferguson Jenkins #37.


                  2.
                  All of the HOM rankings have been generated by elections with about one-third to one-half the participation of the annual elections that determine membership. (17 versus about 50 in this case)


                  3.
                  Ron continued,
                  >>
                  I saw both Marichal and Gibson pitch many times. They were both great pitchers. But to place one 11th all time and the other completely off the board is absurd.
                  <<

                  This here series of BBF polls has ranked Gibson #14 behind the recent big four and nine others, hence #10 among those eligible at the Hall of Merit!

                  On the other hand, the Hall of Merit ranking of pitchers 1959-1984+, which attracted more voters and covers all twenty from the period who have been elected, does place Marichal fourth among the also-rans in the combined election (Blyleven, Palmer, Jenkins, Marichal, Koufax, Ryan). In a bigger combined ranking by HOM voters, which seemed to give valid results down to thirty, he would probably finish in the mid- or high twenties. That would still be far behind Gibson.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Paul Wendt View Post
                    This here series of BBF polls has ranked Gibson #14 behind the recent big four and nine others, hence #10 among those eligible at the Hall of Merit!

                    On the other hand, the Hall of Merit ranking of pitchers 1959-1984+, which attracted more voters and covers all twenty from the period who have been elected, does place Marichal fourth among the also-rans in the combined election (Blyleven, Palmer, Jenkins, Marichal, Koufax, Ryan). In a bigger combined ranking by HOM voters, which seemed to give valid results down to thirty, he would probably finish in the mid- or high twenties. That would still be far behind Gibson.
                    Just so it's clear- I AM NOT lobbying to have Marichal placed basically equivalent to Gibson. While I firmly believe that through 1969 Marichal was very slightly better than Gibson, Gibson post-69 had 3 more real quality seasons plus a couple of other okay ones. After 69 Marichal had only one more real quality season plus a couple of okay ones.

                    That in my mind is enough to tip the overall balance in favor of Gibson by more than a few spots. Keep in mind, however that for both, their careers through 1969 DID mark the bulk of their playing time and greatness.

                    Everyone's got their own system. I see Gibson at around number 12 alltime and Marichal in the low 20s. That acknowledges the difference late in their careers that gives Gibson bigger counting numbers and a small edge in several rate stats. A larger gap than that does a great disservice to Marichal, who, through much of his career, was Gibson's equal if not his slight superior.

                    Gibson 59-69
                    167-110
                    2.76
                    2522 IP
                    1.158 WHIP
                    134 ERA+

                    Marichal 60-69
                    191-88
                    2.57
                    2550 IP
                    1.045 WHIP
                    136 ERA+

                    with similarly effective teams. Gibson's teams of the 60s were well known for their defensive prowess.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      copied from another thread (comparing Marichal- Gibson 1960-69)


                      ______________________________________________

                      MVP votes / rank

                      1962 Marichal 22
                      1963 Marichal 11
                      1964 Marichal 15 Gibson 23
                      1965 Marichal 9
                      1966 Marichal 6
                      1967 Gibson 22
                      1968 Gibson 1 Marichal 5
                      1969 Marichal 23 Gibson 30

                      Marichal had 6 season where he was voted higher in MVP polls
                      Gibson had 2 where he was rated higher


                      Gibson vs Marichal ERA year by year 1960-1969

                      1960 Marichal 2.66 Gibson 5.81. edge Marichal, Marichal leads 1-0
                      1961 Gibson 3.24 Marichal 3.89 edge Gibson, tied 1-1
                      1962 Gibson 2.85 Marichal 3.35 edge Gibson, Gibson leads 2-1
                      1963 Marichal 2.41, Gibson 3.39, edge Marichal, tied 2-2
                      1964 Marichal 2.48, Gibson 3.01. edge Marichal Marichal leads 3-2
                      1965 Marichal 2.13, Gibson 3.07 edge Marichal, Marichal leads 4-2
                      1966 Marichal 2.23, Gibson 2.44 edge Marichal, Marichal leads 5-2
                      1967 Marichal 2.76 Gibson 2.98 edge Marichal, Marichal leads 6-2
                      1968 Gibson 1.12, Marichal 2.43, edge Gibson Marichal leads 6-3
                      1969 Marichal 2.10 Gibson 2.18 edge Marichal, Marichal leads 7-3



                      In the period 1960-1969, apparently someone said Marichal and Gibson were razor thin in win shares

                      I looked up their records vs the top two opponents they could face in the league (In 1969 I chose for Gibson top two NL East and for Marichal top two NL West) and for 1964 Marichal had 3 teams included as Phi/Cin finished in a tie for second

                      the results:

                      Gibson built up his record against the weak teams in the league and was poor vs the top teams in the league

                      Marichal was superb against he top teams in the league

                      Gibson was 25-42 (.373)
                      Marichal was 48-23 (.786)


                      Marichal had winning records 7 of 10 years (the other three were ties)
                      Gibson had losing records 8 of 10 years (the other two he was 3-2 and 4-2)

                      GIBSON
                      1960 (3-6) 2-3
                      1961 (13-12) 4-6
                      1962 (15-12) 3-2
                      1963 (18-9) 4-2
                      1964 (19-12) 3-4
                      1965 (20-12) 3-5
                      1966 (21-12) 0-7
                      1967 (13-7) 1-3
                      1968 (22-9) 3-4
                      1969 (20-13) 2-6 - NLE

                      Totals:
                      when facing the best two opponents Gibson was 25-42 (.373)

                      MARICHAL
                      1960 (6-2) 2-0
                      1961 (13-10) 4-4
                      1962 (18-11) 5-3
                      1963 (25-8) 6-4
                      1964 (21-8) 5-5
                      1965 (22-13) 5-2
                      1966 (25-6) 7-0
                      1967 (14-10) 2-2
                      1968 (26-9) 7-1
                      1969 (21-11) 5-2 - NLW

                      TOTALS
                      when facing best two opponents Marichal was 48-23 (.786)

                      __________________________________

                      now all stats considered, which pitcher would you choose head to head year by year 1960-1971?

                      Me: Marichal 7, Gibson 3, tie 2

                      1960 Marichal
                      1961 Marichal
                      1962 Gibson
                      1963 Marichal
                      1964 Marichal
                      1965 Marichal
                      1966 Marichal
                      1967 tie (Marichal lower ERA, more wins, Gibson better win %, better misc stats)
                      1968 Gibson
                      1969 tie (Marichal had better ERA, better WL record in a hitters park vs Gibson in a pitchers park)
                      1970 Gibson
                      1971 Marichal

                      ___________________________________________

                      Gibson quote from book: Stranger To The Game

                      Again, I will point out that several things made me research this, including Gibson's own autobiography when he slammed Koufax and said "beating Marichal twice in the first week of the 1967 season settles who is the best pitcher in baseball now that Koufax retired."

                      This was after Marichal went 25-6 in 1966 and Gibson went 21-12

                      and Marichal going 22-13 in 1965 and Gibson going 20-12

                      and Marichal going 21-8 in 1964 and Gibson going 19-12

                      and Marichal going 25-8 in 1963 and Gibson going 18-9

                      and Marichal going 18-11 in 1962 and Gibson going 15-13

                      and Marichal going 13-10 in 1961 and Gibson going 13-12

                      and Marichal going 6-2 in 1960 and Gibson going 3-6

                      anybody can see Bob was clearly a better pitcher, it isn't even close.

                      note The Cardinals finished ahead of the Giants in 60, 63 and 64


                      Gibson's 13 shutouts compared to other seasons of 10 or more shutouts

                      The last person to pitch at least 10 shutouts in one season was John Tudor in 1985 (10).

                      Since 1916, only 9 other pitchers have done this.

                      1975 Jim Palmer (10)
                      1968 Bob Gibson (13)
                      1965 Juan Marichal (10)
                      1964 Dean Chance (11)
                      1963 Sandy Koufax (11)
                      1948 Bob Lemon (10)
                      1946 Bob Feller (10)
                      1942 Mort Cooper (10)
                      1933 Carl Hubbell (10)


                      Although Gibson's 13 leads the list, in the context of the leagues they played in, based on total number of complete game shutouts, his % of shutouts to the league was the least impressive.

                      1. Lemon 14.3% (in other words Lemon pitched 14.3% of all the league's complete game shutouts).
                      2. Cooper 11.2%
                      3. Tudor 10.8%
                      4. Chance 10.2%
                      5. Feller 9.9%
                      6. Marichal 9.7%
                      7. Koufax 8.9%
                      7. Hubbell 8.9%
                      9. Palmer 8.6%
                      10. Gibson 8.3%

                      In the NL in 1968, there were 156 complete game shutouts and with team shutouts a total of 185, in 810 games. A phenomenal 21.3% of all NL games in 1968 were shutouts. For comparison purposes in 1965, the NL had 15.3 of its games result in a shutout and just 103 games being complete game shutouts.

                      Based on league context, Marichal's 10 shutouts in 1965 was more impressive than Gibson's 13 in 1968


                      ______________________
                      Summary


                      In 1970 Marichal became seriously ill after a penicillin reaction and nearly died, he never was the same after that


                      How Gibson vaults to an all time top ten and Marichal falls to way down the list escapes me

                      and always will
                      Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 10-26-2009, 12:36 PM.
                      1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
                      2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
                      3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
                        In the period 1960-1969, apparently someone said Marichal and Gibson were razor thin in win shares

                        Win shares 1960-69
                        Gibson Marichal
                        60 0 6
                        61 18 10
                        62 21 19
                        63 17 26
                        64 24 25
                        65 26 30
                        66 26 33
                        67 12 14
                        68 36 24
                        69 33 29

                        Total 213 216

                        Summary


                        In 1970 Marichal became seriously ill after a penicillin reaction and nearly died, he never was the same after that


                        How Gibson vaults to an all time top ten and Marichal falls to way down the list escapes me

                        and always will
                        Gibson's 317 career WS are significantly higher than Marichal's 263. However, the advantage is completely in the 1970s, when Marichal's career came to a premature and disappointing end, largely due to the mentioned medical misfortune.

                        I had been aware of, but had forgotten, the difference between Marichal and Gibson in performance against top teams. It would be interesting to see more supporting info than solely W-L records, such as ERA, CG, WHIP, etc. Although with the mentioned differential it is certain that Marichal's other stats against top competition were better than Gibson's.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          I posted Gibson- Marichal Win Shares 1960-69 in my previous post but got them tangled up in a quote from RoyHobbs previous post. Here they are again.

                          Gibson Marichal
                          1960 0 6
                          1961 18 10
                          1962 21 19
                          1963 17 26
                          1964 24 25
                          1965 26 30
                          1966 26 33
                          1967 12 14
                          1968 36 24
                          1969 33 29

                          Total 213 216

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by BigRon View Post
                            I posted Gibson- Marichal Win Shares 1960-69 in my previous post but got them tangled up in a quote from RoyHobbs previous post. Here they are again.

                            Gibson Marichal
                            1960 0 6
                            1961 18 10
                            1962 21 19
                            1963 17 26
                            1964 24 25
                            1965 26 30
                            1966 26 33
                            1967 12 14
                            1968 36 24
                            1969 33 29

                            Total 213 216
                            I am amazed that Marichal and Gibson had almost identical seasons in 1969 but Gibson gets 4 more win shares, but in 1965, Marichal beats Gibson by almost a full point in ERA yet only gets 4 more win shares, something is screwey.

                            1965 2.14 vs. 3.07 is only equal to 4 more win shares?
                            1969 2.10 vs. 2.18 is 4 less win shares?

                            huh?
                            1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
                            2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
                            3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
                              I am amazed that Marichal and Gibson had almost identical seasons in 1969 but Gibson gets 4 more win shares, but in 1965, Marichal beats Gibson by almost a full point in ERA yet only gets 4 more win shares, something is screwey.

                              1965 2.14 vs. 3.07 is only equal to 4 more win shares?
                              1969 2.10 vs. 2.18 is 4 less win shares?

                              huh?
                              Don't forget about hitting. I estimate that Gibson had about +1 offensive win share per year on Marichal. His OPS+ was 49 and Marichal's was 10 which means that Gibson was producing about 1/3 of what an average position player would have MORE than Marichal. An average guy puts up 14.5 per full time play. 14.5/3=4.5 4.5/4.5=1 (1/4.5 being the percentage of the time he was in the lineup.

                              (I actually estimate Gibson with 15 more offensive win shares in his career than Marichal).

                              Using WARP to estimate (10 runs=3 win shares) Gibson picked up about 2 win shares aside from pitching in '69.
                              Last edited by brett; 10-26-2009, 07:09 PM.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by brett View Post
                                Don't forget about hitting. I estimate that Gibson had about +1 offensive win share per year on Marichal. His OPS+ was 49 and Marichal's was 10 which means that Gibson was producing about 1/3 of what an average position player would have MORE than Marichal. An average guy puts up 14.5 per full time play. 14.5/3=4.5 4.5/4.5=1 (1/4.5 being the percentage of the time he was in the lineup.

                                (I actually estimate Gibson with 15 more offensive win shares in his career than Marichal).

                                Using WARP to estimate (10 runs=3 win shares) Gibson picked up about 2 win shares aside from pitching in '69.
                                cool

                                the debate (I thought) is who was the better pitcher, not better player
                                1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
                                2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
                                3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

                                Comment

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