Scout the "Sleepers" on the Base Paths

[leewileyfan]

In a separate thread here, I've gotten caught up in a project that tries to separate the speedy base-stealers from those savvy guys who just seem always to do the smart thing ... taking the extra base on batted balls ... or simply swiping the occasional base when the pitcher or the catcher is "napping."

I've done numbers on some 40 or so players, 1901-Present. I need your help. IF you have observed or heard about a specific player who just had "smarts" on the bases ... while NOT being typical of the George Case, Rickey Henderson or Lou Brock models ... post the name[s] here. I'll try to work up maybe 40-50 more to see if I get a "profile" on them.

Grandpa's hearsay, Dad's observations and personal impressions are all welcome. Help!

[Second Base Coach]

Elvis Andrus is more likely to to from first to third on a single than any other player today.

[leewileyfan]

Thanks, Coach: Have added Andrus to the list and he fits the profile [Part 1]: fleet base-stealer, with a 75.5% successful steal rate.

Here are a few guys, calculated so far, who fit the flip side of the profile [Part 2], not especially known at all for brilliant flashes of speed, but somehow just always seeming to grab that extra base without any particular rep for flashy speed:

Enos Slaughter
Hank Aaron
Jackie Jensen
Derek Jeter
Pete Rose
Al Kaline
George Brett
Carl Yastrzemski [a big surprise, for me]

These guys pile up base running "runs" [can't put a defined name on it yet] with not so many triples or raw net stolen bases, but more by what can only show up in the raw numbers as a production factor.

I hope this vagueness doesn't scare anybody off. If you think you have a player that fits the profile, please sent him [them] in. I'm kind of glad I can't define it ... I don't want a bias.

Among the more ancient old-timers, careers before the late 1930s, Tris Speaker, Sam Rice and Dick Bartell are prime examples.

[leewileyfan]

I just now came up with another great example of the player profile: Tommy Holmes, who stole only 45 bases in his career, yet whose stats suggest the heads-up base runner who exploits his opportunities. Holmes, a terrific OF and team leader for the Braves personifies the model.

[bluesky5]

Paul Waner, Ashburn, Larry Walker?

[Herr28]

Albert Pujols. No kidding. He has 84 SB and 35 CS. Not a speed demon, just real smart out there.

[Herr28]

Michael Young and George Brett, as well. Brett had no fear in turning singles in doubles, etc. Young doesn't run all that often, but has a real good SB%, so I don't know if that means he really is fast or just real smart at reading the situations while on base.

[leewileyfan]

bluesky and herr:

You guys are hitting the nail right on the head, with ALL names matching the profile. ALL names submitted have runs contributed from the [2] model, LESS from pure base theft and MORE from more subtle base running skills:

Paul Waner [16] + [68+ = 84
Ashburn [28] + [52] = 80
L. Walker [33] + [39] = 72

... also Lloyd Waner [10] + [48] = [58]

Pujols [10] + [30] = 40
M. Young [18] + [30] = 48
Brett [22] + [49] = 72

Great. While headlines are devoted to big stealers at record levels, there are many [often key] players who help win games by less glaring heads-up running of the bases. It can even be at a lower level, like these brothers:

Joe DiMaggio [4] + [41] = 45
Vince DiMaggio [12] + [18] = 30
Dom DiMaggio [8] + [29] = 37

Below this level the contribution begins to lose significance; but if these are NET runs ... well, runs are the building blocks of wins.

Keep 'em coming.

[BigRon]

Lee- I'm very surprised Stan Musial wasn't just about the first guy mentioned. Musial seems to be the prototype of what you're talking about. Musial ran well for most of his career- he wasn't a speed merchant, even by the standards of the 40s, but he had good speed and quickness. But the key was, he used those tools perfectly. He always ran hard out of the box- a big factor in his racking up record numbers of doubles, and lots of triples. He also had excellent sense on the basepaths, and was good at taking the extra base on hits.

[brett]

Thanks, Coach: Have added Andrus to the list and he fits the profile [Part 1]: fleet base-stealer, with a 75.5% successful steal rate.

Here are a few guys, calculated so far, who fit the flip side of the profile [Part 2], not especially known at all for brilliant flashes of speed, but somehow just always seeming to grab that extra base without any particular rep for flashy speed:

Enos Slaughter
Hank Aaron
Jackie Jensen
Derek Jeter
Pete Rose
Al Kaline
George Brett
Carl Yastrzemski [a big surprise, for me]

These guys pile up base running "runs" [can't put a defined name on it yet] with not so many triples or raw net stolen bases, but more by what can only show up in the raw numbers as a production factor.

I hope this vagueness doesn't scare anybody off. If you think you have a player that fits the profile, please sent him [them] in. I'm kind of glad I can't define it ... I don't want a bias.

Among the more ancient old-timers, careers before the late 1930s, Tris Speaker, Sam Rice and Dick Bartell are prime examples.

Since you did George Brett, could you also do Eddie Matthews and Wade Boggs, who I suspect will not be very good. I have always contended that Brett probably added nearly 50 runs on the bases over these guys in terms of taking extra bases which would alone make up for Boggs WAR edge on Brett. Do your numbers include scoring on sac flies?

And a guy I'd like to see is Larry Walker who Tony Gwynn said was the best all around baserunner in the game.

[BigRon]

Lee, as is often the case with your "ratings", I have a hard time understanding your calculations. What are you doing to achieve these numbers?

[leewileyfan]

Brett:

No, I do not weigh in scoring on sac flies. Eddie Mathews fares pretty well with a [6] + [44] = 50 runs score. IF the numbers turn out to signify reasonable trends, Mathews would be among those "savvy" guys whose base running gifts will not grab headlines, but will be "ole reliables" who don't blow opportunities when they see them. Again, it's not huge numbers but numbers that can't be ignored and falling in that second column of the profile not directly related to stealing bases.

Wade Boggs turned out to present an unusual set [-2] + [38], a negative on raw speed. However, he does have high numbers in doubles and all those bases-on-balls, loading up his advancement opportunities, not being offset by high HR numbers. Boggs appears competent on base but not at all gifted on speed.

[Bigfoot 88]

Scott Rolen? I have heard he is a great baserunner.

[leewileyfan]

BigRon:

I try, on occasion, to think a bit outside the box. I have admitted to doing that with this exercise. It struck me that with something so ephemeral as evaluating base running skills and their bottom-line payoff, it might pay to explore other skills that might help the observer induce relative values not immediately visible in the box scores or typical lists of batting stats.

I indicated her in a recent post that I did not want to define every step because I wanted to avoid creating a bias. However, over so many years of observing the game and having at least a cadre of players who fit an image of "savvy" base runners, I started playing around with TRIPLES, NET STOLEN BASES > CAUGHT STEALING, stripping away extra-base hits to find MOST opportunities in BB, HBP and singles. I have tried to separate "savvy" from "speed;" and I'm still working on that. I DO see a clear profile forming [with the help of several participating on the thread]; but I can make no pronouncements - only share what I have, when I think I have a better grasp on the data.

I have also tried to work in BASE-OUT-SCORING PROBABILITY factors using the 24 base-out states grid introduced by Palmer-Thorn in "The Hidden Game of Baseball."

I am not being elusive, just cautious in gathering data and interpreting it.

Do you have any players, valuable on the bases as you've observed [or heard] but never noted for speed and base theft? I'd appreciate seeing them.

[leewileyfan]

And a guy I'd like to see is Larry Walker who Tony Gwynn said was the best all around baserunner in the game.

Larry Walker fits, with [33] + 39] = 72 runs. This, as I see the profile unfolding so far, is excellent base running while not presenting eye-popping numbers. While a Rickey Henderson may pile up 300 such runs over a 20 year career, MOST players I've run through the spreadsheet are marginal at best.

A gifted statistician might determine a default level of -20 to +20 as being equivalent to ZERO; but players above 30 in either portion of the total [especially above 30 in both components] are making a noticeable contribution running the bases.

One surprise, for me = Mike Schmidt, with [18] + [42], SUGGESTING an observant and steady base runner ready to exploit opportunities effectively. Eddie Mathews [6] + [44] was also a pleasant surprise.