Tom Seaver- Best pitcher ever?

[fenrir]

I've noticed that whenever people make lists of the best pitchers of all-time, Seaver often gets left out of the top five. I'm thinking that maybe he should be ranked higher. Here's what Bill James wrote about him: "There is actually a good argument that Tom Seaver should be regarded as the greatest pitcher of all-time. Of the five pitchers rated ahead of him, four pitched before World War II, the other just after World War II. Three of those four had their best years before World War I, at the time when big pitchers dominated the game much more than they do now. Where Seaver rates relative to those pitchers, then, depends to a large extent on how steep one believes the incline of history to be. Since no one can say with any confidence how much tougher the game has become, it is certainly reasonable to argue that the accomplishments of early pitchers should have been marked off by more than I have discounted them, and thus that Seaver's record, in context, is more impressive than Walter's."

I bring all of this up because I was looking at career WAR for pitchers and was surprised to see how high he ranked. He's fourth behind Cy Young, Roger Clemens, and Walter Johnson. Two of them pitched before World War II in segregated leagues, and the other is widely suspected of abusing steroids and HGH. He even surprisingly ranks ahead of Maddux in career WAR.

[9RoyHobbsRF]

Always thought highly of Seaver

The one line that tells a lot for some great pitchers is Tom Seaver and Jim Palmer, perrenial 20 game winners and Cy Young candidates had combined 13 seasons with 20 wins

Warren Spahn equaled that by himself

Seaver could help himself with his glove and bat as well

after the 14-3 partial season with the Reds in 1977, he seemd to go back a few steps for several years. Outside of the strike year in 1981 he never really maxed out again

I remember when he threw his no hitter in 1978 I think and of course he won his 300th game the same day Carew got his 3000th hit

[pheasant]

Seaver had a great peak. But he tailed off too early for me to put him into the top 5. The pitchers that I rate the highest are the ones that made a transition into a new era. I like Pete Alexander, since he still put up a .611 winning pct and a 130 ERA+ during the very beginning of the Live Ball era(1920-1929; ages 33-42). And he was an epileptic drunk that was deaf in one ear. Also, I like Clemens*, Maddux, and Randy Johnson due to their domination during the height of the steroids era. I have three pitchers within the last 20-25 years that are in the top 5. I.e, these 4 pitchers could have dominated any era and I place them up there. Of course, Clemens took steroids too. Thus, I may rethink his ranking. Either way, I have at least 2 pitchers from the last 25 years crack the top 5; maybe 3.

[fenrir]

I place Maddux over Seaver myself, but him and Johnson are close. Johnson was probably better at his peak, but Seaver beats him in career value.

Not to accuse anyone of anything, but Johnson's success at such a late age is interesting. He probably was the greatest "old" pitcher in history, even ahead of Clemens. Now obviously there's no evidence he was a juicer, so I can't discount him at all, but his late career success is certainly interesting.

[BigRon]

Seaver certainly belongs in any rational discussion about greatest pitchers. I believe that, if he had had one or more likely two more strong- not spectacular, but strong- seasons in his late 30s, he could gain some traction for greatest ever. Most of those who are usually ranked ahead of him continued to pitch at a high, sometimes very high, level, until their late 30s or even early 40s.

[Lpeters199]

Sandy Koufax

[pheasant]

Randy Johnson was a bean pole throughout his career, so I doubt he juiced. Of course, I can't prove that he didn't juice, even though I highly doubt it. Once Johnson no longer had to face a DH while pitching in the hitter-friendly Kingdome, he was able to do quite well, despite being older. Randy Johnson reminds me of a Koufax, except that he pitched much longer. I.e, once he started getting his pitches over the place, he was able to dominate hitters. Johnson's incredible peak makes him arguably the best ever.

[fenrir]

Randy Johnson was a bean pole throughout his career, so I doubt he juiced. Of course, I can't prove that he didn't juice, even though I highly doubt it. Once Johnson no longer had to face a DH while pitching in the hitter-friendly Kingdome, he was able to do quite well, despite being older. Randy Johnson reminds me of a Koufax, except that he pitched much longer. I.e, once he started getting his pitches over the place, he was able to dominate hitters. Johnson's incredible peak makes him arguably the best ever.

I really don't think he juiced either, but I do think he's undoubtedly the most dominant "old" pitcher in baseball history, and his career path is unusual.

I'm not sure I would call him the greatest pitcher ever, but he maybe the greatest left handed pitcher ever.

Edit: I'd be curious to see what your top ten list of pitchers looks like. I actually find it a lot harder to rank pitchers than position players.

[yanks0714]

Sandy Koufax

Oh, absolutely, 5 years worth of greatness. He's in the discussion for greatest in terms of 'peak' but not in terms of 'career'.

FWIW, Tom Seaver belongs in the Top 10 in any discussion. But, Walter Johnson, Grove, Alexander (for much the same reason pheasant notes), Maddux (who might be #2), and I'm torn between 2 I've always rated hightly, Feller and Spahn, along with Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens, to round out the Top 5. Clemens probably drops lower because of his usage now, but the other three are my choices.

[pheasant]

I have a tough time ranking pitchers as well. As a matter of fact, my rankings will probably change. As of now, I have:
Alexander
Clemens
Randy Johnson
Walter Johnson
Greg Maddux
Lefty Grove
Christy Mathewson
Tom Seaver

I am one the few that has so many pitchers from the last two decades. The modern guys above did so well despite pitching to guys on steroids while dealing with a shrunken strike zone and a low mound.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

Seaver peaked during an era where such a peak was not as impressive as others. The league ERA never jumped about 3.70, and Seaver never had to contend with a DH. He pitched in pitcher-friendly Shea during this time as well.

Only a great consistency makes Seaver notable, but again it was during an easier time for pitching. I'd say the argument for him being the greatest of all time is very weak.

[fenrir]

I have a tough time ranking pitchers as well. As a matter of fact, my rankings will probably change. As of now, I have:
Alexander
Clemens
Randy Johnson
Walter Johnson
Greg Maddux
Lefty Grove
Christy Mathewson
Tom Seaver

I am one the few that has so many pitchers from the last two decades. The modern guys above did so well despite pitching to guys on steroids while dealing with a shrunken strike zone and a low mound.

Interesting ranking. Personally I rank Maddux ahead of Johnson and definitely ahead of Clemens. Also interesting to see Alexander ranked #1.

[brett]

Always thought highly of Seaver

The one line that tells a lot for some great pitchers is Tom Seaver and Jim Palmer, perrenial 20 game winners and Cy Young candidates had combined 13 seasons with 20 wins

Warren Spahn equaled that by himself

Seaver could help himself with his glove and bat as well

after the 14-3 partial season with the Reds in 1977, he seemd to go back a few steps for several years. Outside of the strike year in 1981 he never really maxed out again

I remember when he threw his no hitter in 1978 I think and of course he won his 300th game the same day Carew got his 3000th hit

Seaver lost some leg strength and a lot of his power after '78, and never had the same K rates. Another issue is that Seaver never had the huge inning seasons of MOST of his contemporaries. He also was too inconsistent from season to season with his even numbered years often being down years with ERA+s of 115, 112, 127, 125 versus 194, 175, 146 and 150 in the previous year.

142 ERA+ for 10 years with a little over 270 innings a year.

And he has been mentioned as possibly one of the early steroid users.

Still he was the best clean pitcher in the period after the mound was lowered. He seemed to be a notch above Carlton, Jenkins, Perry in terms of pitching IQ, but those guys racked up 14 300+ inning seasons between them.

[fenrir]

And he has been mentioned as possibly one of the early steroid users.

Really? By who?

I've heard rumors about Nolan Ryan, but never Seaver.

[pheasant]

Interesting ranking. Personally I rank Maddux ahead of Johnson and definitely ahead of Clemens. Also interesting to see Alexander ranked #1.

Statiscally, you are correct in both cases. And the vast majority will agree with you, which is fine. I try to rank pitchers among all eras to see who'd be the most versatile. I.e, I'm using a "what if" approach, which to most will defy logic. I do this mainly when the pitchers aren't too far apart statiscally.

I like Alec because of the way he adjusted to the new Live Ball era. His assortment of breaking balls and overall pitching chops still allowed a war-damaged man past his prime to post a .611 winning pct and 130 ERA+ from 1920-1929despite entering the new juiced ball era at an advanced age. Granted, Walter was better in the Dead Ball era. But he wasn't nearly good in the Live Ball era. And Johnson's home park was bigger than Alec's. If we move Johnson to today, then he'd have a small strike zone, which takes away even more from his rising fastball. Alec's fastball broke in on righties, so the shorter strike zone wouldn't hurt him nearly as much as Johnson's. Also, Alec had an incredible sinker and very good screwball. I like Alec's repertoire. And I believe Alec would dominate the modern game as well. As for Maddux, I believe that he wouldn't have dominated the tougher AL lineups with DH hitters nearly as much as Randy Johnson did. As it was, the AL batted .280 against Maddux in 1114 AB and the tagged him for 23 HRs and 50 doubles. Granted, I should rethink Clemens since we don't know what his decline would have been had he been clean. Had I included all of Clemens stats, I would have had him #1 of all-time. But that's clearly not fair. But I know for sure that I pick Randy Johnson over Maddux and Alec over the Big Train. Of course, I'm relying more more on "what ifs" than most. I simply don't have enough stats to back up my picks, however.