Historical concentration of perfect games

[brett]

Basically I was wondering why we have so many more perfect games in the 90s and 2000s compared to other periods like the deadball era. Granted there are twice as many teams, but here's the years (since 1900) of perfect games:

1904
1908
1922
1956 (WS)
1964
1965
1968
1981
1984
1988
1991
1994
1998
1999
2004
2009
2010
2010
2012

Plus wasn't the umpire mess-up last year also going to be a perfect game?

And boy Larsen's had to be more amazing considering there had only been 3 in modern times, 1 in 48 years! and none in the past 34 years.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

I've been wondering this myself but have yet to come up with an explanation. I don't think it's a freak thing because the odds are very much against it.

The only possible explanation I've been able to come up with is the emphasis on contact. The 1980s were the beginning of modernized baseball. Players began looking at themselves in video rooms and adhering strictly to batting etiquette, whereas players of yesteryear were more free-swinging and did whatever was comfortable for them (Mel Ott, Al Simmons, Babe Ruth). There are vast differences in today's stances, but the swing mechanics are all the same. Players of yesteryear, with their free-swinging antics and all, were doing whatever they could just to put the ball in play, especially if their team was down. Thus, a lot of no-hit bids could be broken up by a guy desperately tapping the ball for a bloop single.

Bob Feller and Nolan Ryan each had twelve one-hitters. However, Ryan's one-hit bids can be attributed to longer pitching time. Feller had a higher concentration of 1Hers because of the lesser play time. If my theory holds water, he would have had more of these converted to no-hitters if players weren't as free-swinging. From there, all he would need is more control and a decent defense for a perfect game. The fact that players were more free-swinging means they were also missing the ball more so Feller was able to match Ryan in 1Hers despite having many less innings pitched.

[brett]

I've been wondering this myself but have yet to come up with an explanation. I don't think it's a freak thing because the odds are very much against it.

The only possible explanation I've been able to come up with is the emphasis on contact. The 1980s were the beginning of modernized baseball. Players began looking at themselves in video rooms and adhering strictly to batting etiquette, whereas players of yesteryear were more free-swinging and did whatever was comfortable for them (Mel Ott, Al Simmons, Babe Ruth). There are vast differences in today's stances, but the swing mechanics are all the same. Players of yesteryear, with their free-swinging antics and all, were doing whatever they could just to put the ball in play, especially if their team was down. Thus, a lot of no-hit bids could be broken up by a guy desperately tapping the ball for a bloop single.

Bob Feller and Nolan Ryan each had twelve one-hitters. However, Ryan's one-hit bids can be attributed to longer pitching time. Feller had a higher concentration of 1Hers because of the lesser play time. If my theory holds water, he would have had more of these converted to no-hitters if players weren't as free-swinging. From there, all he would need is more control and a decent defense for a perfect game. The fact that players were more free-swinging means they were also missing the ball more so Feller was able to match Ryan in 1Hers despite having many less innings pitched.

Ryan did throw 4 no hitters in just 3 years, and at that point his innings were reduced. I wonder how many times he left a game with a 1 hitter. Did he have 12 1 hitters, or 12 total no hitter and one hitters?

I thought of a partial explanation though for the perfect game question. In the 30s there were about 1.2 errors per team game. In the 90s there were about 0.7. That is about half an error more per game meaning that of perfect games today, half would have been eliminated due to the higher error rate. Another half would be eliminated if we shrink the leagues to 8 teams.

[Nerdlinger]

There are also more teams these days and therefore more games.

[Bothrops Atrox]

There are also more teams these days and therefore more games.

This and maybe more importantly - nothing more than random fluctuation of events. Why would we expect a neat distribution?

[BigRon]

I guess this has already been said/implied in some form- strikeout rates are much higher now- and, they've been increasing, particularly since WW2. More strikeouts mean fewer balls in play, therefore fewer chances for a hit or an error. I certainly don't remember all the perfect games, but it would be interesting to look at the strikeout totals in them.

[ipitch]

More Ks + fewer errors + more teams (4858 games in 2011 vs. 2468 games in 1930) = more perfect games

Also, wasn't it more common decades ago for players to try to bunt to break up a perfect game? That is pretty rare now, because it's considered to be "bush."

[Bothrops Atrox]

More Ks + fewer errors + more teams (4858 games in 2011 vs. 2468 games in 1930) = more perfect games

Also, wasn't it more common decades ago for players to try to bunt to break up a perfect game? That is pretty rare now, because it's considered to be "bush."

Right - good points.

But hasn't BB rate increased a lot too?

[ipitch]

But hasn't BB rate increased a lot too?

Strikeouts have more than doubled since 1930, but walks have been rather steady. It's mostly been between 3.0 and 4.0 (per game/team) for the last 80 years.
You can see it here. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml

[Bothrops Atrox]

Strikeouts have more than doubled since 1930, but walks have been rather steady. It's mostly been between 3.0 and 4.0 (per game/team) for the last 80 years.
You can see it here. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml

Thank you!

[brett]

I calculate that raising the error rate from today's level to the level of the 1920s would eliminate 33% of perfect games. Of the 66% remaining, cutting the # of teams in half would reduce it to 33%.

Also noticing the gap with the live-ball. Offense is fairly high today but mostly because of isolated power being high. Batting average and on-base percentage are fairly low.

In 1936 for example the OB% was .349 and slugging was .404
In 2004 when offense was very high OB% was .335 but slugging was .428
Today's offense is more slugging driven, less OB%, and much less BA driven.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

Ryan did throw 4 no hitters in just 3 years, and at that point his innings were reduced. I wonder how many times he left a game with a 1 hitter. Did he have 12 1 hitters, or 12 total no hitter and one hitters?

I believe both had 12 official one-hitters through the required nine innings

[SHOELESSJOE3]

More Ks + fewer errors + more teams (4858 games in 2011 vs. 2468 games in 1930) = more perfect games

Also, wasn't it more common decades ago for players to try to bunt to break up a perfect game? That is pretty rare now, because it's considered to be "bush."

Those are the two biggest factors the way I see it, look at the increase in the number of teams alone, hugh.
And then, all the free swingers today, less contact.

[SHOELESSJOE3]

More Ks + fewer errors + more teams (4858 games in 2011 vs. 2468 games in 1930) = more perfect games

Also, wasn't it more common decades ago for players to try to bunt to break up a perfect game? That is pretty rare now, because it's considered to be "bush."

On Feller's 12 one hitters, two were bunt hits, not really that late in the game.
April 20, 1938 bunt single 6th inning and Sept. 26, 1941 bunt single 5th inning.
Bob pitched every inning except for the one hitter April 23, 1952 Avila pinch hit for him in 9th inning.

All hits were singles except for the April 23, 1952, a triple in the first inning, on a ball many believed should have been caught. Game recap description, left fielder Jim Fridley moved to his left and watched the ball sail over his head. This was Jim's 10th game in MLB.

More on that game against the Browns 4-23-1952, Bob Cain matched Feller with a one hitter, Browns win 1-0.

1947 three consecutive starts one hitter 4-22-47-----3 hitter 4-26-47------one hitter 5-2-47
Wouldn't be a shock if Bob didn't miss 1942-43-44 and most of 1945 if he threw a few more one hitters and maybe a no hitter. First game back after the military was August 24, 1945 a 4 hitter.

[Imapotato]

In my opinion

It is the skewed talent level of the top players vs the weak players

Baseball has less talent today than I believe in any era of baseball aside from the National Association and National League of the early 1880's