Reflecting on Moneyball: the Oakland As of the 00s

[J W]

Hi all. Remember the glory years of Billy Beane's Oakland Athletics? Well if you haven't, there's a book and a movie about it. But I'm interested in taking a look at how things ended up from some of the moves that were made... what worked, what didn't and why.

For reference, the Oakland As won at least 87 games as a team from 1999 to 2006, making the playoffs five times but never advancing to the World Series.

I'd like to start the discussion by focusing on the Oakland Athletics starting rotation of the early 00's. By 2003 they had a quartet of home grown phenoms starting for them:

Tim Hudson was drafted and signed by Oakland in the 6th round of the 1997 draft. His first season in the bigs came in 1999 where he finished 5th in CYA voting. He was a two time all star who went 92-39 with the team (.702 win %). He had three top ten finishes in CYA voting including a 2nd place in 2000 to a ridiculous Pedro Martinez.

Mark Mulder was the 2nd overall pick of the 1998 amateur draft. His early career remarkably mirrors his predecessor in that he arrived in 2000 and finished 2nd in CYA voting the following year (this time to Roger Clemens). Mulder also made two All Star teams including in his final year with the team, like Hudson.

Barry Zito was the 9th overall pick of the 1999 draft. He started a year earlier than the first two wunderkinds in terms of service time (6th in RoY voting, 2000) and just like the others finished highest in CYA voting three years after he was drafted (1st in 2001). He was a 3 time All Star in Oakland, again including his final season with the team.

Rich Harden signed out of high school in round 17 of the 2000 draft. He underwent a longer progression in the minors but performed very well. He made the bigs in 2003 and showed flashes of brilliance but was fragile, spending multiple stints on the DL. He was never an All Star.

Each one of these pitchers eventually priced themselves out of a spot on the team by performing. So what did Oakland get for them?

- Hudson was traded to Atlanta prior to the '05 season for Juan Cruz, Dan Meyer, and Charles Thomas. He has suffered from injury from time to time but has mostly lived up to his billing, going 92-60 for the franchise with a 117 ERA+. The trade pieces were all horrible for the As, though they did make it to the big leagues. This was a win for Atlanta and a loss for Oakland.

- After showing signs of regression in '04 at the age of 26, Mulder was traded three days after Hudson, this time to Saint Louis for Daric Barton, Kiko Calero and Dan Haren. Mulder had one good year with the cards and then fell off a cliff; he had a torn rotator cuff and never recovered from it. Meanwhile, Haren developed into another stud pitcher that was flipped later in a major trade. In addition, Calero had two good seasons out of the pen and Barton is still with the team. The Cards could afford giving up the men but the As won out big time here.

- Zito (much like Mulder) fell back to an ERA+ under 110 and a WHIP over 1.300 during his age 26 season... however, the team decided to keep him around until he became a free agent prior to 2007. This generally worked out for them as Zito posted a 30-23 record with a 114 ERA+ in his final two seasons. On December 29, 2006, Zito signed a massive 7 yr, $126 mil deal with the San Fransisco Giants. The contract has become one of the worst signings in recent memory and has yet to play out. The As obviously got "Type A" compensation for this and with their supplemental pick selected Sean Doolittle. He has yet to see the majors.

- Harden was traded (along with Chad Gaudin) in the middle of the 2008 season to the Chicago Cubs before hitting free agency. For half a years' rental, the Cubs sent the team a package of Josh Donaldson, Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton and Eric Patterson. Harden finished his age 26 season strong with the Cubs but hasn't done much of anything since... he last played in 2011. Patterson however has been the only return worth his salt in anything with the team (Gallagher in particular was disappointing). You could call this one a wash but the Cubs got more out of Harden than they gave up.

----

So then, in the end the team went 1 for 4 in returns for their four starting pitchers. The trades certainly don't come across as any more masterful than other teams -- in fact, you can see how these returns helped end their streak of winning seasons. The end of their run ('05-'06) from the pitching side included more draft picks such as Joe Blanton (1st round) and Huston Street (1st supplemental round). It appears that the majority of success came from their actual draft pick and the development of those picks. I'm wondering how much attention was paid to the development of said pitchers in the book.

[Ubiquitous]

As you saw with the Zito situation if the A's don't trade the player all they'll get is a supplemental pick. Supplemental picks are nice but they are still not top 10 picks. The value of a supplemental pick is low. One shouldn't be expecting to strike it rich every time one gets one anymore than anyone should expect a second rounder or late first rounder to develop every time.

Tim Hudson after being traded got a 4 year deal at 47 million dollars. In those 4 years he went 42-30 in 98 starts and 627 innnings for a 113 ERA+. In 2008 he only pitched 142 innings and 2009 he only pitch 42 innings. In 2006 he put up a 92 ERA+. The Braves then signed him to a 3 extension. If the A's would have kept him he would have only stayed for 2005 and that season was valued at 3.1 WAR. But it is true that the players the A's got for him were complete and total busts.

Mulder one season after being traded completely broke down was worth nothing after that first season. As you already mentioned the A's clearly got good return on him.

Rich Harden was always extremely fragile very rarely stayed in the rotation. Thus his value was much lower than say Tim Hudson's was or Zito's. I don't really see this trade as a loss for the A's.

I basically see it as one bad trade, two meh roster moves, and one good trade.

[brett]

Hi all. Remember the glory years of Billy Beane's Oakland Athletics? Well if you haven't, there's a book and a movie about it. But I'm interested in taking a look at how things ended up from some of the moves that were made... what worked, what didn't and why.

For reference, the Oakland As won at least 87 games as a team from 1999 to 2006, making the playoffs five times but never advancing to the World Series.

I'd like to start the discussion by focusing on the Oakland Athletics starting rotation of the early 00's. By 2003 they had a quartet of home grown phenoms starting for them:

Tim Hudson was drafted and signed by Oakland in the 6th round of the 1997 draft. His first season in the bigs came in 1999 where he finished 5th in CYA voting. He was a two time all star who went 92-39 with the team (.702 win %). He had three top ten finishes in CYA voting including a 2nd place in 2000 to a ridiculous Pedro Martinez.

Mark Mulder was the 2nd overall pick of the 1998 amateur draft. His early career remarkably mirrors his predecessor in that he arrived in 2000 and finished 2nd in CYA voting the following year (this time to Roger Clemens). Mulder also made two All Star teams including in his final year with the team, like Hudson.

Barry Zito was the 9th overall pick of the 1999 draft. He started a year earlier than the first two wunderkinds in terms of service time (6th in RoY voting, 2000) and just like the others finished highest in CYA voting three years after he was drafted (1st in 2001). He was a 3 time All Star in Oakland, again including his final season with the team.

Rich Harden signed out of high school in round 17 of the 2000 draft. He underwent a longer progression in the minors but performed very well. He made the bigs in 2003 and showed flashes of brilliance but was fragile, spending multiple stints on the DL. He was never an All Star.

Each one of these pitchers eventually priced themselves out of a spot on the team by performing. So what did Oakland get for them?

- Hudson was traded to Atlanta prior to the '05 season for Juan Cruz, Dan Meyer, and Charles Thomas. He has suffered from injury from time to time but has mostly lived up to his billing, going 92-60 for the franchise with a 117 ERA+. The trade pieces were all horrible for the As, though they did make it to the big leagues. This was a win for Atlanta and a loss for Oakland.

- After showing signs of regression in '04 at the age of 26, Mulder was traded three days after Hudson, this time to Saint Louis for Daric Barton, Kiko Calero and Dan Haren. Mulder had one good year with the cards and then fell off a cliff; he had a torn rotator cuff and never recovered from it. Meanwhile, Haren developed into another stud pitcher that was flipped later in a major trade. In addition, Calero had two good seasons out of the pen and Barton is still with the team. The Cards could afford giving up the men but the As won out big time here.

- Zito (much like Mulder) fell back to an ERA+ under 110 and a WHIP over 1.300 during his age 26 season... however, the team decided to keep him around until he became a free agent prior to 2007. This generally worked out for them as Zito posted a 30-23 record with a 114 ERA+ in his final two seasons. On December 29, 2006, Zito signed a massive 7 yr, $126 mil deal with the San Fransisco Giants. The contract has become one of the worst signings in recent memory and has yet to play out. The As obviously got "Type A" compensation for this and with their supplemental pick selected Sean Doolittle. He has yet to see the majors.

- Harden was traded (along with Chad Gaudin) in the middle of the 2008 season to the Chicago Cubs before hitting free agency. For half a years' rental, the Cubs sent the team a package of Josh Donaldson, Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton and Eric Patterson. Harden finished his age 26 season strong with the Cubs but hasn't done much of anything since... he last played in 2011. Patterson however has been the only return worth his salt in anything with the team (Gallagher in particular was disappointing). You could call this one a wash but the Cubs got more out of Harden than they gave up.

----

So then, in the end the team went 1 for 4 in returns for their four starting pitchers. The trades certainly don't come across as any more masterful than other teams -- in fact, you can see how these returns helped end their streak of winning seasons. The end of their run ('05-'06) from the pitching side included more draft picks such as Joe Blanton (1st round) and Huston Street (1st supplemental round). It appears that the majority of success came from their actual draft pick and the development of those picks. I'm wondering how much attention was paid to the development of said pitchers in the book.

In evaluating these trades you also should look at the salaries that all of the players received. They may have lost in 3 trades in terms of personnel but saved a lot of money.

[GiambiJuice]

On a side note, I thought it was hilarious how the movie (and to some extent the book) completely ignored the fact that the 2002 A's had a great starting roation, anchored by Zito, who won the AL Cy Young that year (plus great years from Hudson and Mulder and a very solid season from Cory Lidle) AND had the league's MVP winner in Miguel Tejada. If I didn't know better I'd think Scott Hatteberg was the reason they won so many games!

[Ubiquitous]

The movie basically ignored everything that had to do with baseball and instead focused on closeups of Brad Pitt driving around in a car and some little girl singing.

[Captain Cold Nose]

The movie basically ignored everything that had to do with baseball and instead focused on closeups of Brad Pitt driving around in a car and some little girl singing.

Not really true. They did a good job dismissing Carlos Pena as a viable player, along with what GiambiJuice said about Scott Hatteburg.

[J W]

The same Carlos Pena who put up 16.7 rWAR with the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays so far? That's kind of funny because the Rays are like the modern day Athletics only a bit better with their postseason success. I guess you could say he is overpriced.

[csh19792001]

The movie basically ignored everything that had to do with baseball and instead focused on closeups of Brad Pitt driving around in a car and some little girl singing.

Uh, did you miss all but 7 minutes of the entire movie?

In the realm of baseball movies it's one of the few best, and certainly one the most important and revered.

[Ubiquitous]

I watched the entire movie and baseball wasn't really the point of the movie. The movie was about Brad Pitt and Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill. Virtually any sport or business or conflict could have been the backdrop to the story. This one had baseball playing in the background. There some stuff about baseball but virtually none of it unique to baseball.