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Ted Williams vs Carl Yastrzemski

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  • #31
    1976 and 1977 are a bit flukish in that era in that 1976 the scoring was low while the scoring was high in 1977 for the NL. HR's took a nosedive in 1976 and jumped out in 1977. In 1978 scoring dropped back to 1976 levels before rising modestly over the next decade.

    The same thing happened in the AL but they also had expansion in 1977.

    So you are comparing one team from the low point of run scoring and using their away numbers which is minus one really bad offensive park to another team from a high point of run scoring and using their away numbers which is minus one really good offensive park.
    Last edited by Ubiquitous; 06-19-2012, 08:43 PM.

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    • #32
      1977 was a great year for runs
      1976 was not

      the 1976 Astros on the road scored/allowed more runs than the 1977 Red Sox on the road while at home the numbers were about 400 difference

      you have made my point fo rme

      i dont think i can make it any simpler or easier than post 29
      1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
      2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
      3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

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      • #33
        Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post

        to say the 1977 red sox were a better offensive team than the 1976 astros is a hard nut to prove
        Except what the pitchers did doesn't really answer anything about the batters.

        If you take both teams' away numbers and then weight their home run scoring so that it has same amount of games played as their average away opponent does then the Red Sox offense scores 403 runs and the Astros offense scores 373 runs.
        Last edited by Ubiquitous; 06-19-2012, 08:55 PM.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
          1977 was a great year for runs
          1976 was not

          the 1976 Astros on the road scored/allowed more runs than the 1977 Red Sox on the road while at home the numbers were about 400 difference

          you have made my point fo rme

          i dont think i can make it any simpler or easier than post 29
          My point is that to get to the answer is more complicated than you are making it out to be.

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          • #35
            in an expansion year with the DH when scoring was markedly higher

            30 runs is easy to account for

            very easy
            Originally posted by Ubiquitous View Post
            Except what the pitchers did doesn't really answer anything about the batters.

            If you take both teams' away numbers and then weight their home run scoring so that it has same amount of games played as their average away opponent does then the Red Sox offense scores 403 runs and the Astros offense scores 373 runs.
            1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
            2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
            3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

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            • #36
              the point is fenway park inflates offensive stats

              1977 red sox home games total runs both teams 902 runs
              1977 red sox road games total runs both teams 669 runs

              the 1976 astros numbers were provided to show a comparison
              1976 astros home games both teams 541 runs
              1976 astros road games both teams 741 runs

              the difference betwwen red sox games at home 902 runs vs the astros home games 541 runs is a positive 361 runs
              the difference between red sox games onn the road 669 runs vs the astros games on the road both teams 741 runs is a negative 72 runs

              that is a sum difference of 433 runs
              the reason is fenway park
              period



              you are disputing that?

              if yes we have no further need to discuss

              if no, we have no further need to discuss

              Originally posted by Ubiquitous View Post
              My point is that to get to the answer is more complicated than you are making it out to be.
              ns
              Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 06-19-2012, 09:05 PM.
              1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
              2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
              3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

              Comment


              • #37
                in an expansion year with the DH when scoring was markedly higher

                30 runs is easy to account for

                very easy
                And it is also very easy to say it should be more.

                The Red Sox in 1977 hit .264/.325/.417 in away games and again that is without a very good hitters park in that line.
                The Astros in 1976 hit .271/.329/.364 in away games and did not have a very bad hitters park in that line.

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                • #38
                  ummm duh

                  DH vs pitcher batting

                  u duh expansion year

                  um duh scoring increased significantly

                  Originally posted by Ubiquitous View Post
                  And it is also very easy to say it should be more.

                  The Red Sox in 1977 hit .264/.325/.417 in away games and again that is without a very good hitters park in that line.
                  The Astros in 1976 hit .271/.329/.364 in away games and did not have a very bad hitters park in that line.
                  1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
                  2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
                  3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by pheasant View Post
                    Due to longevity, I'd say that Yaz belongs in the Hall.
                    Concerning longevity vs. Williams...

                    How much to we want to weight the fact that Yaz played 700+ games at 1B and 400+ as a DH (1100+ games at easier positions)?
                    Williams played his entire career in the OF. Well, except that he also PITCHED for a second.

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
                      or if he played 162 games in Colorado he would have hit 70 home runs and hit .430

                      remember when Bichette hit like 40 home runs and 31 were at home?

                      park illusions are an important factor

                      "taking advantage" of a offensive oriented park is nonsense

                      Yaz slugged .394 career at the Oakland Coliseum, what if he played his career there?

                      Yaz slugged over .500 at one ballpark in his career, yes Fenway park

                      Hank Aaron slugged over .500 at 18 ballparks career

                      Willie Mays hit 28 home runs in 56 career games at Ebbetts Field and slugged .786, what if he played half his career games there

                      it is a benefit that inflates a perceived value

                      that is why all these slugging red sox teams went 86 years without a championship
                      If he exceeded normal fenway/everywhere else splits that would seem to indicate he figured out how to take advantage of his park.

                      We will never know how well Yaz would have done somewhere else. Obviously not as well as Fenway, but we can't be sure just how much he would lose. If he had an ability to take advantage of Fenway that exceeded normal fenway/other splits, that would make him very valuable to the Red Sox. We can't necessarily say that another player would improve his Fenway numbers to the extent that Yaz did.

                      The same stuff was said about Wade Boggs. Interestingly enough, when Boggs went to Yankee Stadium he still had pretty large splits. In fact, very large splits. I don't know what his splits were in the Bronx while with Boston, someone else can look that up. I do know that while he was with the Yankees he was much better at home.
                      Last edited by dl4060; 06-19-2012, 09:51 PM.

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                      • #41
                        The Astros in 1976 on the road without the pitcher and again without a very bad offensive park in the line: .280/.340/.377
                        Last edited by Ubiquitous; 06-19-2012, 11:04 PM.

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                        • #42
                          Cut it any way you like, you have to love hitting at Fenway.
                          Even the four Yanks who hit better at home did not hit that much better.
                          Look at the the Bosox, all hit better at home and by some wide margins.
                          Lynn 88 points higher, Cronin 51 points higher.

                          We're dealing with thousands of at bats and a number of decades
                          This is an oldie, not sure of the source.
                          How much more obvious can it be made, Fenway, hitter's Heaven.
                          Attached Files

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
                            the point is fenway park inflates offensive stats

                            1977 red sox home games total runs both teams 902 runs
                            1977 red sox road games total runs both teams 669 runs

                            the 1976 astros numbers were provided to show a comparison
                            1976 astros home games both teams 541 runs
                            1976 astros road games both teams 741 runs

                            the difference betwwen red sox games at home 902 runs vs the astros home games 541 runs is a positive 361 runs
                            the difference between red sox games onn the road 669 runs vs the astros games on the road both teams 741 runs is a negative 72 runs

                            that is a sum difference of 433 runs
                            the reason is fenway park
                            period



                            you are disputing that?

                            if yes we have no further need to discuss

                            if no, we have no further need to discuss

                            ns
                            To bring the discussion back to Yaz: In 1977, the Red Sox home-away split in OPS was 115/86 (measured against their own average of 100, not against the league). But for Yaz, the home-away split was 123/76 (again, measured against his own average of 100).

                            Compared to the league, Yaz has a 115 OPS for away games (i.e. 15% better than the average player playing away) and a 161 home OPS (i.e. 61% better than the average player at home).

                            So from three perspectives, comparing Yaz with his teammates, comparing him with the league, and comparing him with himself, it's clear that Fenway per se is not the whole story. Yaz was smart enough and skillful enough to exploit his home park at a truly outstanding rate. Lifetime, his personal home-road split was 115/86 (again, vs his own average of 100).

                            This is really unusual. Ott, Wynn, Ruth, and Teddy F. Ballgame had splits of around 104-6/96-4. Interestingly, another doubles champ, Tris Speaker, has a 114/86 split (from 1918-1930). Jim Rice's splits were also the same.

                            Success on the home field at this level isn't something that just happens if you just show up with a bat and glove and let the park effects carry you along.

                            In 1977, the Red Sox scored 495 at home, 364 on the road for a 1.35:1 ratio. Using crude runs created (TB * OBA) gives Yaz 66 runs created at home and 40 on the road, for a 1.65:1 ratio. So in 77 Yaz did better at home than the typical Fenway slugger by 1.65 to 1.35, or +22%.

                            I get a better sense of Yaz's accomplishments from comparing Yaz's own splits with those of his mates and the league than I do from comparing Houston to Boston in two different years. It is a huge difference, but not as huge as Yaz's.

                            He was 37, had a WAR of 4.1, and it was his last really good season.
                            Last edited by Jackaroo Dave; 06-20-2012, 03:23 AM.
                            Indeed the first step toward finding out is to acknowledge you do not satisfactorily know already; so that no blight can so surely arrest all intellectual growth as the blight of cocksureness.--CS Peirce

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                            • #44
                              Yaz was great, but Williams was Ted Williams. He won the triple crown his last season before going off to the military (1942), and he won it again after the war in 1947. He missed three prime years when he was the best hitter alive. If not for that, we wouldn't be having this discussion.
                              They call me Mr. Baseball. Not because of my love for the game; because of all the stitches in my head.

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
                                let's look at 2 examples

                                the 1977 red Sox who scored 495 runs at home but allowed 407 runs at home or a total of 902 runs
                                but on the road they scored only 364 runs but allowed only 305 runs, for a total of 669 runs
                                both the offense and pitching scored/allowed over 100 more runs at home

                                saying a red sox batter took advantage of fenway due to his unique skills is folly, it is a true park illusion

                                now let's look at the other extreme

                                the 1976 astros scored just 277 runs at home but allowed even less - 264 for a total of 541 runs
                                but on the road the astros scored 348 runs and allowed 393 for a total of 741 runs a 200 run difference

                                the 1977 red sox scored a total of 218 more runs at home than the 1976 astros did
                                but on the road the difference was only 16 runs and 1977 was an expansion year along with having a DH pretty much negates the 16 run difference

                                to say the 1977 red sox were a better offensive team than the 1976 astros is a hard nut to prove

                                they just played in an environment more suited to runs

                                and it is the same for individual players like Yaz
                                I think the skill of the batter does matter in the splits. Especially in an asymetric park like fenway.

                                Williams played in the same park and he had almost identical home/road splits. maybe this was because he was a pure pull hitter and thus could not take as much advantage out of fenway due to its long RF. I'm not saying that skill makes yaz better than williams but he seemed to get more advantage out of fenway than ted.

                                yaz:
                                home: .904 OPS, .306 BA, 237 HR
                                road: .779 OPS, .264 BA, 215 HRs

                                Williams:
                                home: 1.148 OPS, .361 BA, 248 HRs
                                away: 1.082 OPS, .328 BA, 273 HRs

                                So williams had almost no difference (lower BA but more HRs and a little lower OPS) while yaz had a pretty big split.
                                If you asume that you have about 5% better home stats even in a neutral park (less travel stress, home crowd, familiar park and facilities) williams would have had the same OPS on home and road. yaz split is of course still significant.
                                Last edited by dominik; 06-20-2012, 04:20 AM.
                                I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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