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Ted Williams vs Carl Yastrzemski

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  • GiambiJuice
    replied
    Great post, Jackaroo.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jackaroo Dave
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    home .306 .402 .503
    road .264 .357 .422

    the truth hurts
    Or, in other words, .285 .379 .462 over a span of 23 years, including the second dead-ball era. It only hurts when I laugh.

    Roy, you quite properly make the point that ballpark illusions are pervasive yet simple to recognize and deal with. Of course that's what relative stats like Yaz's OPS+ (130) and WAR (90) do. But the same holds for illusions due to the era of play.

    For example, he had one away year quite close to his career away line quoted above: .264/.353/.415. It was 1978, and he had an away OPS+ of 127, 3 points off his lifetime overall. Another year Yaz had an away slash line of .232/.339/.447: The year was 1969 and his corresponding away OPS+ was 138.

    These were nowhere near his best years. When he was in his prime, he had away OPS+ of 178, 198, and 199. He had 10 seasons of 135 or above, 15 of 115 or above.

    (I can't help feeling you are toying with Yaz's sabremetric fanboys by comparing Dante Bichette's season of 1995, when runs averaged 4.85 per game, with Yaz's seasons when runs averaged 3.8. That's very naughty ;-) )

    Overall, Yaz played in an environment that was basically neutral. Baseball Reference's "air" stat is a measure of the extent to which the run environment favors the hitter: 100, neutral; >100 favors offense; <100 favors defense. Yaz's is 99. Pretty much, what Fenway giveth, the 60's taketh away. If you run Yaz through baseball-reference's Neutral Run Environment processor, at the end you get almost exactly the same stats that you start with.

    He does have a black ink/grey ink advantage because of Fenway, but no advantage over anyone playing in a run-neutral environment.

    For the record, here are Yaz's away OPS+ marks. There are a couple of real stinkers in there, and I would never dispute that Yaz stayed too long at the fair. His marks in 79 and 81 (when he was 40 and 42) should never have been made. That brings down his average but doesn't take away his great achievements:

    Code:
    1961-65 68 100 178 139 135 
    1966-70 101 199 198 138 173
    1971-75 118 111 151 142 117
    1976-80 102 115 127 91 142
    1981-83 73 108 116
    (What is interesting is that in many years, especially the later ones, the first/second half split is far greater than the home-road split, the second half always worse.)

    Baseball-Ref doesn't give the career sOPS+, the comparison with the league's home and away splits. It just gives the individual's. Since Yaz's breakdown is 115 (Home) to 86 (Away)with 100 the overall average, i.e. the equivalent of his career OPS+ of 130, I figure his OPS+ to be about 149 at home and 111 on the road, but I wouldn't take my oath on it.

    I don't think Yaz is an easy player to figure out. He had his successes early, and it seemed every year for ages as if his inability to match his early performance was all that was standing between the Red Sox and a pennant. And then there are the splits. He had that 44-home-run-season, but he wasn't really a power guy, more an on-base and doubles guy. He was a wonderful defensive player and a good baserunner. He has 90.1 WAR, but he's 65th in WAR per PA, in Fisk, Gwynn, and Ashburn territory. He had some great years and some really good years that seemed less impressive than they were. And he did have a couple of horrible years. Maybe if Fenway hadn't made his raw numbers look better at the end, he might have gotten out sooner.

    Roger Angell said that Yaz didn't look like he enjoyed playing ball much. He was dinged up and got old early, and he stayed old for a long time. He was a hell of a player, though, and all in all his record means just what it says.

    Leave a comment:


  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink

    Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
    Yaz aside from this discussion, there are other with monster gaps in home/away splits. I don't see how anyone can downplay a hitter with such hugh gaps in home away stats when ranking them by career stats.

    We do it for pitchers all the time with much more vigor. One look at home and away on the chart I posted (post # 42) for a number of Bosox hitters tells a number of Bosox players feasted in that heavenly hitter's parks.

    Some of the Bosox hitters home/away gaps are astounding, to put it mildly.

    Leave a comment:


  • SHOELESSJOE3
    replied
    Yaz aside from this discussion, there are other with monster gaps in home/away splits. I don't see how anyone can downplay a hitter with such hugh gaps in home away stats when ranking them by career stats.

    We do it for pitchers all the time with much more vigor. One look at home and away on the chart I posted (post # 42) for a number of Bosox hitters tells a number of Bosox players feasted in that heavenly hitter's parks.

    Some of the Bosox hitters home/away gaps are astounding, to put it mildly.
    Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 06-21-2012, 01:23 PM.

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  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    see post 52

    Originally posted by westsidegrounds View Post
    maybe try looking at career splits rather than selected miscellaneous individual seasons ... ?

    Leave a comment:


  • westsidegrounds
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    His black ink are a large part because he played in an offensive park


    as a reminder

    1962 OVERALL .296 19 HR .469 SA
    1962 HOME .342 11 HR .563 SA
    1962 ROAD .252 8 HR .379 SA

    1965 OVERALL .312 20 HR .536 SA
    1965 HOME .331 16 HR .639 SA
    1965 ROAD .289 4 HR .417 SA

    1977 OVERALL .296 28 HR .505 SA
    1977 HOME .351 14 HR .557 SA
    1977 ROAD .239 14 HR .453 SA

    Dante Bichette had black ink too (look at 1995 w hen he led the league in hits, home runs, RBI slugging and TB)
    Home .377 .397 .755
    Road .300 .329 .473

    do you really think someone who had a .329 OB% and a .473 SA is really the second best player in the league?
    maybe try looking at career splits rather than selected miscellaneous individual seasons ... ?

    Leave a comment:


  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    His black ink are a large part because he played in an offensive park


    as a reminder

    1962 OVERALL .296 19 HR .469 SA
    1962 HOME .342 11 HR .563 SA
    1962 ROAD .252 8 HR .379 SA

    1965 OVERALL .312 20 HR .536 SA
    1965 HOME .331 16 HR .639 SA
    1965 ROAD .289 4 HR .417 SA

    1977 OVERALL .296 28 HR .505 SA
    1977 HOME .351 14 HR .557 SA
    1977 ROAD .239 14 HR .453 SA

    Dante Bichette had black ink too (look at 1995 w hen he led the league in hits, home runs, RBI slugging and TB)
    Home .377 .397 .755
    Road .300 .329 .473

    do you really think someone who had a .329 OB% and a .473 SA is really the second best player in the league?

    Leave a comment:


  • GiambiJuice
    replied
    Yaz must be the most mediocre player with 90 WAR.

    Leave a comment:


  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    and my favorite
    the strikeout king vs the batting champ

    Yaz we already know
    home .306 .402 .503
    road .264 .357 .422 (so funny)

    The Reg
    Home .255 .349 .481
    Road .268 .362 .499

    Yaz in Fenway .306 .402 .503
    Yaz in Oakland .253 .353 .394

    Reg in Fenway .280 .369 .534
    Reg in Oakland .258 .353 .491

    park illusions are such a simple PROVEABLE concept
    it is funny so many people are BLIND to it

    Leave a comment:


  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    now lets look at some "similar"* players (* accoridng to baseball ref.com)

    Harold Baines
    Home .290 .361 .468
    Road .289 .351 .461

    dont see any 81 points drop in slugging
    dont see any 42 point drop in BA
    dont see any 45 point in OB %
    why? because he did not have an offensive home park to inflate his numbers

    Eddie Murray
    Home .288 .364 .470
    Road .286 .356 .482

    dont see any 81 points drop in slugging
    dont see any 42 point drop in BA
    dont see any 45 point in OB %
    why? because he did not have an offensive home park to inflate his numbers

    Leave a comment:


  • GiambiJuice
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    home .306 .402 .503
    road .264 .357 .422

    the truth hurts
    What's the truth, that he was solid, but not spectacular on the road? I never denied that. You fail to look at the total package.

    Funny how you ignored every point in my post.

    Leave a comment:


  • dgarza
    replied
    Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    What happened to Yaz after 1970? He has a fair amount of Black Ink from 1963-70. Then nothing after that.
    SI article
    July 10, 1972

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vau...6289/index.htm

    If, indeed, Yastrzemski is finished as a home-run hitter, the hand injury he suffered last season trying to steal a base is probably more to blame than the knee he hurt sliding into home plate against the Angels on May 9 this year.

    But then (which may just be talk)...
    For his own part, Yaz says he simply hasn't been swinging for the fences. "I don't think the injuries have anything to do with it. It's just a matter of whether I'm trying for home runs or not. It's easier for me to hit this way."

    Leave a comment:


  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    home .306 .402 .503
    road .264 .357 .422

    the truth hurts

    Leave a comment:


  • GiambiJuice
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    ^ so much for the theory Yaz uniquely took advantage of his park and should be credited for it

    what happened is he got inflated numbers playing in an offensive park and those inflated numbers disappeared when he played in normal parks

    boston hitters over the years have routinely been over valued because of inflated numbers due to park illusions

    period
    He cannot control which

    park his team plays in

    but at the end of the day a player

    with over 3400 hits and 450 home runs and 90 WAR, and a triple crown

    and an MVP and 7 gold gloves

    and 55 Black Ink (avg HOFer: 27)

    is an all time great player.

    regardless of whether he had a favorable home park

    period

    Leave a comment:


  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    ^ so much for the theory Yaz uniquely took advantage of his park and should be credited for it

    what happened is he got inflated numbers playing in an offensive park and those inflated numbers disappeared when he played in normal parks

    boston hitters over the years have routinely been over valued because of inflated numbers due to park illusions

    period

    Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
    Only a small sample on the number of players but you would expect it to be just the opposite with the Green Monster.
    But, the left handers doubles home and away shows the bigger gap.
    Obviuosly the configuration of the park in right and right center played a part.
    Doubtful those lefthanders hit a significant number off the wall in left.

    Out of all of them. possible Boggs hit a fair number off the wall.
    Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 06-21-2012, 07:43 AM.

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