Candlestick Park, Willie Mays, and Home Runs

[Honus Wagner Rules]

The discussion over in the "Pujols is "finished"" thread took a turn when we started to discuss Willie Mays and the home runs he potentially lost due to Candlestick Park. I thought I'd break that off into it's own thread. Poster "csh19792001" posted this Rob Neyer article where Neyer argues that Mays didn't lose home runs due to Candlestick Park but in fact Mays did well home run-wise at Candlestick Park. Poster "Rich the Giants Fan" thought Neyer's article was complete nonsense. Discuss!

[dgarza]

Some HR rates....

@Polo Grounds - HR every 4.07 games
@Candlestick - HR every 4.38 games
@Seals - HR every 4.81 games
@all other parks - HR every 4.74 games


Some 162 HR avgs....

@Polo Grounds - 39.80 HR per 162
@Candlestick - 37.00 HR per 162
@Seals - 33.68 HR per 162
@all other parks - 34.18 HR per 162


Some career (2992 game) hypothetical projections based purely on rates above....

@Polo Grounds - 735 HR
@Candlestick - 683 HR
@Seals - 622 HR
@all other parks - 631 HR

Of course the Polo Ground rates are based on a younger and less experienced player. And the Candlestick rates are for an older, but more experienced player. And it's not really fair to extrapolate those rate neither forwards nor backwards, like I have just done for his career projections. But it is something to look at.

[9RoyHobbsRF]

In his career Mays hit 28 HR in 220 AB and slugged .786 at Ebbetts Field

At Dodger Stadium He hit 12 HR in 177 AB and slugged .695

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Here is Candlestick Park when it first opened in 1960.

Candlestick3.jpeg

[dgarza]

Based on his PA/HR road rates for each season, this is approx. how many HRs he gained/lost playing at home. (Don't get on me about how "you can't hit 0.3 HRs". I already know that.)

1951 +6.5 @ Polo
1952 +0.4 @ Polo
1954 -0.2 @ Polo
1955 -7.5 @ Polo
1956 +5.5 @ Polo
1957 -0.3 @ Polo
1958 +3.2 @ Seals
1959 -1.6 @ Seals
1960 -3.3 @ Candlestick
1961 +3.3 @ Candlestick
1962 +7.0 @ Candlestick
1963 +3.2 @ Candlestick
1964 +5.1 @ Candlestick
1965 -2.6 @ Candlestick
1966 -1.1 @ Candlestick
1967 +4.6 @ Candlestick
1968 +1.8 @ Candlestick
1969 +2.3 @ Candlestick
1970 +3.8 @ Candlestick
1971 +0.9 @ Candlestick
1972 +0.1 @ Candlestick as both a Giant and Met
1973 -0.1 @ Candlestick as a Met

So, very roughly, from 1960-1972, Mays hit about 25 more HRs in Candlestick than expected, based on his road rates for those years.
From 1960-1972, Mays had 3524 total PAs at Candlestick and 4340 total PAs elsewhere.