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  • Rajah was a brilliant hitter, I don't see how he'd have trouble adjusting across eras either. You cannot 'know', but if anyone from that era could, this guy is your pick. Outside of Ruth I mean.

    I think Sam Rice, Paul Waner, Edd Roush, Kiki Cuyler and Mr. Manush were the type of hitters that would fare rather well post war too.

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    • Originally posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
      Cobb's decline had nothing to do with the era, it was a very natural decline due to age.
      Great point.

      Despite the fact that OPS+ was many, many decades way from even being conceived (much less emphasized/fixed on)...yet...Cobb (as a player-manager for 6 years, no less) put up a 144 OPS+ from 1920-28.

      How many non steroid players can say the same? How many that weren't burdened with the massive, thankless, almost ridiculous job of being player/manager?

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      • Gehrig and Ruth combined for TWO home runs at Clevelenad Stadium (42 games total). Ruth never hit a single homer there in 48 PA.

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        • Originally posted by Tyrus4189Cobb View Post
          I don't understand this implicated notion that opening the doors for nonwhites means every pre-integration player would have suffered miserably.
          Read what Bill James wrote in his 2000 Abstract re: the "Death Spasms" of the Negro Leagues, and the resulting MVP's (and close MVP's that resulted).

          And on top of that, all the empirical evidence points to the NL being a much stronger leauge, top to bottom during the integration phase, which in fact lasted from 1947 through the mid 1970's.

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          • Originally posted by csh19792001 View Post
            Read what Bill James wrote in his 2000 Abstract re: the "Death Spasms" of the Negro Leagues, and the resulting MVP's (and close MVP's that resulted).

            And on top of that, all the empirical evidence points to the NL being a much stronger leauge, top to bottom during the integration phase, which in fact lasted from 1947 through the mid 1970's.
            One point I've made several before is that though we can never know what past stars could have done in other eras we do have a similar real-life scenario. That being Japanese players coming over to MLB. You have these Japanese players coming over to MLB where the average player is larger and stronger, and pitchers generally throw harder. And all of the Japanese players stats decline in the major leagues. To me this sheds great over on how older stars may have fared in more recent eras. I look at someone like Hideki Matsui. He hit for great power in the NPB. I was in Japan in the summer of 2002 and I saw Matsui play in on TV a few times. I saw him hit a home run that was just a monster blast. He hit 50 HRs that year. So when he came over to the Yankees I was looking forward to see how he would do. I was very disappointed that he only hit 16 HRs in his first season with the Yankees. But in his second season he hit 31 HRs and I thought that Matsui had made adjustments and that he was going to hit for ever more power. I truly believed he was going to have a few 40-45 HR seasons in the majors. But it never happened. His 31 HRs in 2004 was his major league career high. This is why I have generally a rather low view as to how older stars would have done in more recent, integrated eras. Granted, Matsui is just one player but it sheds light in my mind. I'm a huge Sadaharu Oh fan and I want to believe had he played in the majors instead of the NPB he would hit lots of home runs as well, over 500 HRs for sure. But my gut tells me Oh may have had difficulty reaching even 350-400 career HRs in the majors.
            Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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            • Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
              One point I've made several before is that though we can never know what past stars could have done in other eras we do have a similar real-life scenario. That being Japanese players coming over to MLB. You have these Japanese players coming over to MLB where the average player is larger and stronger, and pitchers generally throw harder. And all of the Japanese players stats decline in the major leagues. To me this sheds great over on how older stars may have fared in more recent eras. I look at someone like Hideki Matsui. He hit for great power in the NPB. I was in Japan in the summer of 2002 and I saw Matsui play in on TV a few times. I saw him hit a home run that was just a monster blast. He hit 50 HRs that year. So when he came over to the Yankees I was looking forward to see how he would do. I was very disappointed that he only hit 16 HRs in his first season with the Yankees. But in his second season he hit 31 HRs and I thought that Matsui had made adjustments and that he was going to hit for ever more power. I truly believed he was going to have a few 40-45 HR seasons in the majors. But it never happened. His 31 HRs in 2004 was his major league career high. This is why I have generally a rather low view as to how older stars would have done in more recent, integrated eras. Granted, Matsui is just one player but it sheds light in my mind. I'm a huge Sadaharu Oh fan and I want to believe had he played in the majors instead of the NPB he would hit lots of home runs as well, over 500 HRs for sure. But my gut tells me Oh may have had difficulty reaching even 350-400 career HRs in the majors.
              Adam,
              I think you nailed it. The nail right in the coffin.

              Is there a meta-analysis of MLB vs. Nippon players so we can compare stats? Or have there not been enough players/PA's?

              I think this is exactly what pre integreation basballl stats would have looked like juxtaposed with 2012 stats. The standard deviations of their individual statistics, most revealing of all...

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                I want to believe had he played in the majors instead of the NPB he would hit lots of home runs as well, over 500 HRs for sure. But my gut tells me Oh may have had difficulty reaching even 350-400 career HRs in the majors.
                Ichiro and Matsui's OBP and SLG in Japan vs. MLB tells quite a story. A story analogous to "how do players perform long term- over hundreds of games in the Minors- vs. MLB...
                Last edited by csh19792001; 10-25-2012, 05:21 PM.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by csh19792001 View Post
                  Adam,
                  I think you nailed it. The nail right in the coffin.
                  Not sure if I nailed the coffin shut. I know some folks here at BBF believe my analogy doesn't really work.

                  [B]Is there a meta-analysis of MLB vs. Nippon players so we can compare stats? Or have there not been enough players/PA's?


                  I think this is exactly what pre integration basball stats would have looked like juxtaposed with 2012 stats. The standard deviations of their individual statistics, most revealing of all...
                  I believe Jim Albright knows more about this. Clay Davenport from Baseball Prospectus has done some research. some old articles of Davenport's:

                  http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=1330

                  http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=8558


                  I do want to make one thing clear though. My analogy only applies if we take the old time stars and just dump them into other eras. If Hideki Matsui had entered American professional baseball at age 18, spent time in the minors, then entered the major leagues I believe he would have been better player in the majors. Taking this back to the Negro League what would have happened in integration was delayed by 10 years? What if Willie Mays and Hank Aaron were not allowed in the majors until age 29 or 30? Would they have have dominated the majors to the same level that they did in real life? I highly doubt it. They still would have been good players of course. But they would have also suffered the "Matsui effect" as well. Not one established veteran (say over 29) Negro League star really became a superstar in the majors. Roy Campanella did dominate in the majors. I don't think it was a coincidence that he was only 26 when he entered the majors. I also don't think it's a coincidence that the most successful imported Japanese player, Ichiro, was also the youngest to enter the majors at age 27. You take those old time stars at age 17-18 and have them enter pro ball today and many of them would be major league stars today IMO,
                  Last edited by Honus Wagner Rules; 10-25-2012, 05:47 PM.
                  Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by csh19792001 View Post
                    Ichiro and Matsui's OBP and SLG in Japan vs. MLB tells quite a story. A story analogous to "how do players perform long term- over hundreds of games in the Minors- vs. MLB...
                    In Japan Ichiro hit for decent power, hitting 20+ home runs in two different seasons. And they play shorter seasons over there. I think Ichiro quickly realized that his power would not translate in the majors and shifted his focus on BA and getting as many hits as possible.
                    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                      In Japan Ichiro hit for decent power, hitting 20+ home runs in two different seasons. And they play shorter seasons over there. I think Ichiro quickly realized that his power would not translate in the majors and shifted his focus on BA and getting as many hits as possible.
                      Exactly. They have BS cookie cutter 1970's style parks in that league. And the ball is livelier, to increase attendance on top of that.

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                      • Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                        I also don't think it's a coincidence that the most successful imported Japanese player, Ichiro, was also the youngest to enter the majors at age 27.
                        So, if 25 or 50 Niappon players emigrated (which they will, in time) and didn't perform nearly as well (which they wouldn't in the aggregate, against MLB pitching) would that NOT be incontrovertible evidence that Nippon Baseball is akin to Triple A, by comparison?
                        Last edited by csh19792001; 10-25-2012, 05:53 PM.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by csh19792001 View Post
                          Exactly. They have BS cookie cutter 1970's style parks in that league. And the ball is livelier, to increase attendance on top of that.
                          I know Jim Albright has done his own research and I believe he discovered that NPB players have something like a 50% drop in home runs on average when they come to the majors. I hope Jim chimes in on this with some more details.
                          Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by csh19792001 View Post
                            So, if 25 or 50 Niappon players emigrated (which they will, in time) and didn't perform nearly as well (which they wouldn't in the aggregate, against MLB pitching) would that NOT be incontrovertible evidence that Major League Baseball is akin to Triple A, by comparison?

                            Cmon, man? Seriously.
                            I'm not sure what you mean, Chris?
                            Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by csh19792001 View Post
                              Gehrig and Ruth combined for TWO home runs at Cleveland Stadium (42 games total). Ruth never hit a single homer there in 48 PA.
                              Is this a reply to an earlier post, missing the point.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
                                No it's the other way around, easier the environment, the more the elites will stands out and greater the delta.
                                Which league would Pujols post the highest OPS+; MLB, AAA, AA, or A? The answer should be obvious to you.
                                Thats exactly what i was trying to say. I think that Aaron and Mays would not put up 157 OPS+ career wise in the 1990s. Just about the only guys who did that were the steroid guys.

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