Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Evaluating CF Careers

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Evaluating CF Careers

    There's an interesting and expanding/diverging/tangential/lively thread here that started out with a poll: Mickey Mantle or Joe DiMaggio. It started some time ago; got a second life, and now seems well on its way to 1,000 posts.

    Not to hijack the thread [I'll be going back to address some of the tangential side discussions sooner or later]. There was a recurring theme on yhe thread having to do with Bill James' rankings and Jim Wynn. I decided to toss out a list, ranking CF, 1901-Present in a snapshot form that distills careers to the following common parameters:

    1. Batting: Runs Created per Plate Appearance + Defense Runs in CF +/- MLB CF averages, by season, over career in CF.

    2. Summing the two components into a Total Runs element to be divided by Plate Appearances to = Net Runs/PA.

    3. Reviewing the 1901-Present seasons to get a Run Creation Climate per PA; so we are not comparing 1908 [.094 or so] against 1936 [.13+] even up. Some players, like Earl Averill and Sam West have a tough offensive climate row to hoe, at .1300 +. Others, like Jim Wynn from the 1960s, or Ginger Beaumont from the first decade of the 1900s are measured against their peers, at .1081 and .1054 respectively.

    4. Taking 600 PA to represent 1 Season and crediting "Seasons" on that basis.

    5. Defense Runs are ONLY CF Defense Runs. All numbers are career numbers. If a player gathered 62 Defense Runs better than average in CF, then that's his FIXED DR number. His PA may be 8800 at all positions [14.7 "seasons"]; but all that accrues over that period is batting RC. His DR stay at 62. Any bias for a"favored" star defender in CF, whose career may be abbreviated by, war, injury, death, or weak hitting, is eliminated, The accruals just STOP.

    Here are the rankings for the 60 or so CF included [Players whose names are followed by asterisks are those who scored heavily with Defense Runs above average over [and relative to] the lengths of their careers:

    1. Mays*
    2. Cobb
    3. Speaker*
    4. Mantle
    5. DiMaggio, J.
    6. Snider
    7. Edmonds*
    8. Smith, R.
    9. Beltran*
    10.Williams, B.
    11. Jones, A.*
    12. Lynn
    13. Dawson*
    14. Averill
    15. Ashburn*
    16. Lofton*
    17. Puckett
    18. Doby
    19. Pinson
    20. Lemon, C.*
    21. Carey*
    22. Berger
    23. DiMaggio, D.*
    24. Dykstra*
    25. Roush
    26. West, S.*
    27. Wilson, H.
    28. Wynn
    29. Damon
    30. Davis, W.*
    31. Murcer
    32. Flood*
    33. Cameron, M.*
    34. Murphy, Dw.*
    35. Pafko
    36. Butler
    37. Beaumont*
    38. Seymour
    39. Chapman, S.*
    40. Mostil*
    41. Jones, F.*
    42. Henderson, Da.*
    43. Judnich*
    44. Hidalgo
    45. Agee*
    46. Wilson, W.
    47. Erstad*
    48. White, Dev.*
    49. Blair*
    50. Finley
    51. Everett
    52. Landis*
    53. Hunter, T.
    54. Cardenal
    55. Kreevich*
    56. Douthit*
    57. Hall, J.
    58. McGee
    59. DiMaggio, V.*
    60. Piersall*
    61. Flagstead
    62. Pettis*
    63. Statz*

    The list of names I worked through ultimately came to well over 100 CF [1901-2012] who might be considered. That would be a number similar to this list who have been omitted. Of course, there's always that odd player who falls between the cracks. If you find him, let me know.

  • #2
    just curious

    do you value any rating of a player (award votes , contemporary written evaluations, scouting reports, eyewitness perceptions, etc.) that is NOT a formula?
    Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 09-01-2012, 06:41 PM.
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
    3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
      just curious

      do you value any rating of a player (award votes , contemporary written evaluations, scouting reports, eyewitness perceptions, etc.) that is NOT a formula?
      Having exchanged some posts with you in the past, I fully realize just how loaded your questions can be. Many ways to interpret FORMULA:

      1. Baby formula, Pablum and mush and all things digestible to keep baby occupied while doing him/her no harm. AKA: "pap."
      2. You seem entranced by RBI. That, in itself, is formula derived, in that it has two parts.
      3. I love evaluations, eyewitness reports, contemporary observations, scouting reports, and the like. They lend, heart, soul and a reasonable amout of MYTH to baseball lore. I didn't think you cared for such personal stuff, since your knickers got twisted when I referred to my father, his playing acquaintances [a number of whom played some time in MLB ... and some others up there for a cup of coffee. In fact, you suggested their observations might have warped my own insights. [Ya see, Mr. Hobbs ... I DO pay attention].

      Along the line of observation, I SAW most of these guys, pre WW II, during and after ... up through the present. However, I have learned along the way that MLB history and player comparisons [half the fun of fandom] can not rest on myth and folklore, because people, games, times and sports can change pretty dramatically from generation to generation.

      You also speak as if one who turns to math as a TOOL for working out gut theories on paper is some kind of twisted nerd, with no mind of his own. Quite the contrary, the ones who give numbers crunching a fair shot are the ones who know what they're talking about and want to be sure that their gut has some basis in the realities of the game.

      For example, on the DiMaggio-Mantle thread, I had voted for DiMaggio. I had seen him play, so many times between 1940-41 and the end of his career. I was a Queens, NY kid - often up the FDR Drive to River Avenue and then the Stadium. I was a dyed-in-the-wool Red Sox fan; but I had respect for star level players.

      All these discussion just had me go back to re-evaluate my long-standing opinions on Mantle-DiMaggio. However, if I could change my vote right now, I would. Mantle wins, hand down. I once believed that defense was the tie breaker; but, while Joe was better defensively, he was not the cream of the crop in his day. Nor was Mickey Mantle a bum in the field. He had some fine seasons and some less-than -average seasons. He ran sometimes erratic courses to batted flies; and while his arm was strong, the throws [the longer ones] were usually 15' or so up the baseline. So, Joe was a bit better than average. Mickey was a bit below average. However, Mantle overall wins BIG.

      At the rate of run productions, we could give JD his 3 years of service; and Mickey would still beat him out, career-wise.

      Now. Do you have any comments on the list?
      Last edited by leewileyfan; 09-01-2012, 07:10 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Lee- it's pretty late at night here and I've had a few libations, so it's possible I missed some names on your list. I didn't see Griffey Jr. or Dale Murphy, or Maddox, or Van Slyke, to name several. Omissions on your part (I imagine at least Griffey Jr.), or didn't make your top 63?

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by leewileyfan View Post
          There's an interesting and expanding/diverging/tangential/lively thread here that started out with a poll: Mickey Mantle or Joe DiMaggio. It started some time ago; got a second life, and now seems well on its way to 1,000 posts.

          Not to hijack the thread [I'll be going back to address some of the tangential side discussions sooner or later]. There was a recurring theme on yhe thread having to do with Bill James' rankings and Jim Wynn. I decided to toss out a list, ranking CF, 1901-Present in a snapshot form that distills careers to the following common parameters:

          1. Batting: Runs Created per Plate Appearance + Defense Runs in CF +/- MLB CF averages, by season, over career in CF.

          2. Summing the two components into a Total Runs element to be divided by Plate Appearances to = Net Runs/PA.

          3. Reviewing the 1901-Present seasons to get a Run Creation Climate per PA; so we are not comparing 1908 [.094 or so] against 1936 [.13+] even up. Some players, like Earl Averill and Sam West have a tough offensive climate row to hoe, at .1300 +. Others, like Jim Wynn from the 1960s, or Ginger Beaumont from the first decade of the 1900s are measured against their peers, at .1081 and .1054 respectively.

          4. Taking 600 PA to represent 1 Season and crediting "Seasons" on that basis.

          5. Defense Runs are ONLY CF Defense Runs. All numbers are career numbers. If a player gathered 62 Defense Runs better than average in CF, then that's his FIXED DR number. His PA may be 8800 at all positions [14.7 "seasons"]; but all that accrues over that period is batting RC. His DR stay at 62. Any bias for a"favored" star defender in CF, whose career may be abbreviated by, war, injury, death, or weak hitting, is eliminated, The accruals just STOP.
          Let me ask rather than assume anything, as I wonder a couple things.

          1) do you adjust for park factor? I just don't see it listed
          2) adjusting for era is great. How exactly are you doing that? Specifically, how are you using the RC by era. Is it done separately for each league and season? Is each player's adjusted RC done against the league RC for that season (effectively weighting by season), or is the league RC calculated across the years the player played and used at that point (effectively not weighting)?
          3) how are defense runs being calculated? Fangraphs, BBRef, own calculation, other source?
          4) Runs created/Defense runs for CF. It looks like you have defense runs for CF. It seems like you are saying that you use all PA to calculate RC, and use all PA as divisor for average defensive runs per season as CF. This makes me think that a player who player half his time in left and half in center has his defense runs average per year in center understated. Please clarify. I realize that it could be a lot of work to split out PA by position each year to weight it that way.
          5) which RC formula are you using for the leagues? Or is it from a source? I know that data is missing from earlier in the 20th C. Did you made modifications for missing data?

          So, there is no peak value modifier, no award modifier, no post season appearance modifier, no gray ink / black ink modifier? I think you were clear it wasn't, just repeated the thoughts in my words.
          Last edited by drstrangelove; 09-01-2012, 08:18 PM.
          "It's better to look good, than be good."

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by drstrangelove View Post
            Let me ask rather than assume anything, as I wonder a couple things.

            1) do you adjust for park factor? I just don't see it listed
            No. In measuring players for defensive and all-around performance, I believe sufficient tweaking is done adjusting for batting climate for run creation. I can live with that and keep it simple.

            :2) adjusting for era is great. How exactly are you doing that? Specifically, how are you using the RC by era. Is it done separately for each league and season? Is each player's adjusted RC done against the league RC for that season (effectively weighting by season), or is the league RC calculated across the years the player played and used at that point (effectively not weighting)?
            I have two basic sources: one a spreadsheet for each season 1901-Present, RC/PA main source = B-R. The other is a study on pitching sabermetrics that studies runs per game since 1876. I just use the 1901 - forward period.

            :3) how are defense runs being calculated? Fangraphs, BBRef, own calculation, other source?[
            That's my baby. I have my own metric. On the Strategy and Sabermetrics board, I introduced it several months ago. I am heartened by the almost 1,900 hits it has enjoyed; but I'd like some more feedback. I believe I go into its structure and intent; and I've started several threads on position-player evaluations. So far what I've gotten from them is, "Thanks."[Could use some more ... even from naysayers].

            :4) Runs created/Defense runs for CF. It looks like you have defense runs for CF. It seems like you are saying that you use all PA to calculate RC, and use all PA as divisor for average defensive runs per season as CF. This makes me think that a player who player half his time in left and half in center has his defense runs average per year in center understated. Please clarify. I realize that it could be a lot of work to split out PA by position each year to weight it that way.
            My metric is based on weighted inputs for defense at each position. Each position has a starting TEMPLATE of excellence against which play is measured. The raw numbers produced would be a hodge-podge for anyone not familiar with the metric, since it is position-centric. I have conversion formulas that defer those numbers into a .900 - 1.000 range. [Yep, it resembles fielding pct. to be user-friendly]. The templates are elastic; so if I see an outbreak in higher ratings, say between 1918 and 1920 there has to be an underlying cause, like end of WW I; return to top flight materials; new gloev design innovations, etc]. The template rises.

            Say at 1941 second baseman, like Jimmy Bloodworth, racks up a Rating of .978 in a League where .945 is average, I can convert that into 12 defense runs; and if Jimmy played 138 of 154 games, his net defensive contribution becomes +10.75.

            :5) which RC formula are you using for the leagues? Or is it from a source? I know that data is missing from earlier in the 20th C. Did you made modifications for missing data?
            Baseball Reference is my primary source; and for 1901 and after, they have had all I need.

            :So, there is no peak value modifier, no award modifier, no post season appearance modifier, no gray ink / black ink modifier? I think you were clear it wasn't, just repeated the thoughts in my words.
            No. My personal POV is this: a player's total career is his ultimate legacy. If I want comps for a portion of that, I can dig it out. However, at my age, and interested as I am in the dynamic history of how the game has evolved, I can't let myself get bogged down in "too much information." [That's just how I am/think].

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by BigRon View Post
              Lee- it's pretty late at night here and I've had a few libations, so it's possible I missed some names on your list. I didn't see Griffey Jr. or Dale Murphy, or Maddox, or Van Slyke, to name several. Omissions on your part (I imagine at least Griffey Jr.), or didn't make your top 63?
              Nope. These are not conscious edits. I am aware of these guys, along with a few dozen others. I'll add these tonight before turning in. That "Top 63" is by no means a final standings list.

              Comment


              • #8
                In addition to those I mentioned last night, here are a few more off the top of my head who were predominantly centerfielders:

                Doc Cramer
                Amos Otis
                Chet Lemon
                Brady Anderson
                Lloyd Waner
                Bill Bruton
                Bill Virdon
                Eric Davis
                Amos Strunk

                Comment


                • #9
                  He was before my time, but growing up I heard a lot of old time Cardinal fans [including my dad] insist that Terry Moore [1935-48] was the greatest defensive CF they ever saw. He had a problem with injuries, I believe he ran into outfield walls a few times. Made a few AS teams, good enough to get mentioned in MVP voting 4 times. Lost what should have been 3 peak seasons to WW2. An above average hitter, hit as many as 17 Hr's in back to back seasons [39,40] never more than 7 in any other season.
                  It Might Be? It Could Be?? It Is!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    To update the list in response to additional CF whose names have been posted, I am copying the original list, adding to the names the number of "wins" each player achieved, above average, as a total player ... batting and fielding. The numbers are CAREER totals; and ONLY defense runs [+/-] earned in CF are incorporated.

                    To continue the full context, an asterisk after the player's name indicates that he is among the defensive standouts either in raw high numbers of defense runs OR relatively high compared to career longevity. For example, Walt Judnich has fewer + DR than many; but relative to his career in CF [interrupted by WW II service + later injuries] his per season rates with the glove were high.

                    Names added since the initial listing are inserted with an [n].


                    Here are the rankings for the 60 or so CF included [Players whose names are followed by asterisks are those who scored heavily with Defense Runs above average over [and relative to] the lengths of their careers:

                    1. Mays* 105.2
                    2. Cobb 96.3
                    3. Speaker* 91.2
                    4. Mantle 83.3
                    5. DiMaggio, J. 65.7
                    [n] Griffey, Jr. 60.5
                    6. Snider 53.7
                    7. Edmonds* 52.3
                    8. Smith, R. 44.3
                    9. Beltran* 40.4
                    10.Williams, B. 39.8
                    11. Jones, A.*38.4
                    12. Lynn 35.9
                    13. Dawson* 34.2
                    14. Averill 34.0
                    15. Ashburn* 33.6
                    16. Lofton* 33.4
                    17. Puckett 32.0
                    18. Doby 31.4
                    19. Pinson 29.9
                    20. Lemon, C.* 28.6
                    21. Carey* 28.5
                    22. Berger 26.6
                    23. DiMaggio, D.* 25.2
                    24. Dykstra* 25.0
                    25. Roush 24.5
                    26. West, S.* 24.4
                    27. Wilson, H. 24.3
                    28. Wynn 24.3
                    29. Damon 22.0
                    [n] Da. Murphy 21.9
                    [n] Van Slyke 21.0
                    30. Davis, W.* 19.8
                    31. Murcer19.2
                    32. Flood*18.3
                    33. Cameron, M18.0.*
                    34. Murphy, Dw.*16.4
                    35. Pafko 16.3
                    [n] Maddox* 15.8
                    36. Butler 15.7
                    37. Beaumont* 14.0
                    38. Seymour 13.8
                    39. Chapman, S.* 13.0
                    40. Mostil* 12.8
                    41. Jones, F.* 12.7
                    42. Henderson, Da.* 12.2
                    43. Judnich* 11.9
                    44. Hidalgo 11.4
                    45. Agee* 10.9
                    46. Wilson, W. 10.4
                    47. Erstad* 10.2
                    48. White, Dev.* 10.1
                    49. Blair* 9.9
                    50. Finley 9.5
                    51. Everett 9.4
                    52. Landis* 8.6
                    53. Hunter, T. 8.2
                    54. Cardenal 7.8
                    55. Kreevich* 7.2
                    56. Hall, J. 6.5
                    57. McGee 5.6
                    58. Douthit* 5.0
                    59. DiMaggio* V. 3.3
                    60. Piersall* 3.1
                    61. Flagstead 3.0
                    62. Pettis* 2.4
                    63. Statz* 2.0

                    Have updated with Griffey, Jr., Da. Murphy, Maddox and Van Slyke. Will add Cramer, Otis, Anderson L. Waner, Bruton, Virdon, E. Davis, and Amos Strunk after after lunch.
                    NOTE: Chet Lemon is ALREADY on list, #20 with 28.6 runs.
                    Last edited by leewileyfan; 09-02-2012, 09:51 AM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      For people interested in this thread, I will refer to Post #10 [above] as the basic reference point. Rather than repetitiously copying and pasting the entire list, I will just add new player entries, as their names are suggested, in individual posts.

                      The format will be the same for individuals added. An asterisk indicates a player whose career "runs" are significantly improved by Defense Runs earned with the glove. "Runs" are the accumulate runs +/- MLB average; and the career "wins" indicate runs divided by 10.

                      New names:

                      Strunk 9.1
                      Otis 22.0
                      Br. Anderson 9.1
                      L. Waner 7.7
                      Bruton 5.5
                      Virdon 0.4
                      T. Moore 9.5
                      Cramer -5.5.

                      When I was a kid getting ready to go to the ballpark with my father, "Doc" Cramer was one of those names that made the anticipation heighten. Here I am, cringing as I list him here with a negative value. However, it provides an opportunity into the whole player/statistics/comparison/lexicon/context deal in dabbling into the "numbers game."

                      1. Doc Cramer was no bum. He lasted over 20 years, was a several time all-star, and always seemed to have a welcoming next port-of-call at trading time. However, Doc Cramer was essentially a lead off hitter in a very high offensive run scoring climate; and in that climate, he was a cotact hitter for solid BA, but not much power.

                      2. As a lead off hitter, Cramer was a free swinger [sweet swing, too] and his career rate of getting on base [.340] was not impressive. The lead off function also guaranteed that for at least one PA per game, he would have NO chance for immediate run creation unless he homered ... an unlikely prospect.

                      3. Doc was no threat to steal a base; so any base "accumulation" was entirely dependent upon those behind him in the batting order.

                      If we explore the numbers:

                      -Doc had 1149 RC in 9927 PA, a RC/PA rate of .1157. Had Doc played in the 1960s, with a MLB RC/PA prevailing rate of .1061, his .1157 would have put him in offensive clover [sort of], [his 69.42 per 600 PA vs 64.86 standard; and such comps would have put him around +10, career against contemporary average.

                      -Doc's .1157 RC/PA occurred over an extended career that included ALL of the 1930s, ameliorated by War years and after, with a career average being .1250 RC expectation per PA. Over 600 PA, Doc's 69.42 becomes a production deficit of 5.58 offensive runs per season, compared to 75. Doc's defensive runs in CF fall about 60 short of career break even in such an offense-oriented career atmosphere.

                      -All this is in the context of contemporary average. We are not talking Replacement here, where Doc would be in positive territory by a cozy margin.

                      Terry Moore is another example. He became a "franchise" player with his glove. He was a decent hitter who produced batting runs at a .1220 rate in an average atmosphere of .1237. His defense runs out him comfortably into positive territory, but not at as high a level as an avid Cards fan might have expected.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        career wise wise DiMaggio is hurt by the War. As to those the best players ever at cf were, IMO it's:

                        1 DiMaggio
                        2 Mays
                        3 Cobb
                        4 Mantle
                        This week's Giant

                        #5 in games played as a Giant with 1721 , Bill Terry

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Hi. Picked up several minutes of your football game call just into the half. Then I had to go watch "Grimm," [no, not Cholly Grim] but Grim the Seattle cop, with powers I don't think I'd want [though sometimes I believe I get little peeks, here and there].

                          Your list of four is not much of a departure from mine. [Just Joe as #1 ... can't see that at all].

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by leewileyfan View Post
                            Hi. Picked up several minutes of your football game call just into the half. Then I had to go watch "Grimm," [no, not Cholly Grim] but Grim the Seattle cop, with powers I don't think I'd want [though sometimes I believe I get little peeks, here and there].

                            Your list of four is not much of a departure from mine. [Just Joe as #1 ... can't see that at all].
                            I'm glad you listened. I really enjoy it. It's just a sidelight, but this is my 9th year announcing for that team.
                            This week's Giant

                            #5 in games played as a Giant with 1721 , Bill Terry

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              leewileyfan,

                              In your estimation [using your metric] was Tris Speakers unorthodox play in CF a positive or negative?
                              "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                              Comment

                              Ad Widget

                              Collapse
                              Working...
                              X