Elo vs BBF

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

A game of sorts. How does the Elo rater on BBRef compare to the rankings of BBF? This isn't to say BBF members are better, but I'd like to see how the two compare.

Below are the top 30 players/pitchers according to the Elo rater. I ask you to post your top 30 players/pitchers. For every ranking that is spot on (both you and Elo have George Brett at #17), score +2 points. If an Elo ranking is within one slot of yours (you have Brett at #17 but Elo has him at 16 or 18), score +1 points. Score 0 points if a ranking is within two slots (you have Brett at #17 but Elo has him at 15,16,18, or 19). Score -1 points if a ranking is three or four slots off. Score -2 points if a ranking is more than five slots off or if one of the lists doesn't contain a player and the other does. No Negro Leaguers. These are all-timers so they should be fairly close. Total everything (separate pitcher from player) at the end of your post. I will continually average the totals until this thread dies.

Baseball-Reference Elo Player Rankings (as of the creation of this post):
1. Babe Ruth
2. Willie Mays
3. Ty Cobb
4. Honus Wagner
5. Lou Gehrig
6. Ted Williams
7. Rogers Hornsby
8. Tris Speaker
9. Stan Musial
10. Hank Aaron
11. Nap Lajoie
12. Eddie Collins
13. Mickey Mantle
14. Alex Rodriguez
15. Mel Ott
16. Mike Schmidt
17. Jimmie Foxx
18. Rickey Henderson
19. Frank Robinson
20. Eddie Mathews
21. George Brett
22. Cal Ripken
23. Barry Bonds
24. Carl Yaz
25. Al Kaline
26. Roberto Clemente
27. Cap Anson
28. Charlie Gehringer
29. Chipper Jones
30. Joe DiMaggio

Baseball-Reference Elo Pitcher Rankings:
1. Walter Johnson
2. Cy Young
3. Pete Alexander
4. Lefty Grove
5. Christy Mathewson
6. Warren Spahn
7. Randy Johnson
8. Greg Maddux
9. Bob Gibson
10. Roger Clemens
11. Kid Nichols
12. Steve Carlton
13. Tom Seaver
14. Sandy Koufax
15. Mickey Welch
16. Jim Palmer
17. Eddie Plank
18. Bob Feller
19. Gaylord Perry
20. Ed Walsh
21. John Smoltz
22. Nolan Ryan
23. Don Drysdale
24. Mordecai Brown
25. Tim Keefe
26. Dennis Eckersley
27. Bert Blyleven
28. Carl Hubbell
29. Pedro Martinez
30. Dizzy Dean

Example rankings to show how it's done:
1. Babe Ruth (+2)
2. Ty Cobb (+1)
3. Willie Mays (+1)
4. Hank Aaron (-2)
5. Rogers Hornsby (-1)
Total: 1

1. Cy Young (+1)
2. Bob Gibson (-2)
3. Pete Alexander (+2)
4. Nolan Ryan (-2)
5. Sandy Koufax (-2)
Total: -3

The higher the score, the more similar.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

Not one person?

[chicagowhitesox1173]

I'm shocked Pedro martinez fell so low. In our elo draft he once was a top 10 pitcher. I think the rankings here are much more accurate.

[PVNICK]

I don't have a ranking beyond maybe a top 3-5. A quick glance and I see Bonds massively docked, DiMaggio pretty low, Lajoie surprisingly high by a few spots same for Ott and Matthews. On pitchers Gibson is too high. In fact at 10 with Marichal not listed in the top 30, ludicrous. Carlton should never be ahead of Seaver. Clemens is docked but nowhere as severely as Bonds was.

[pheasant]

Modern players in general are too heavily docked. Bonds' rating is a joke, even if I don't like the man. There appear be no adjustments for era whatsoever.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

...so I should file this in my "failed projects" folder?

[brett]

Not one person?

Too complicated formula for me to do quickly. If we just did -1 for every spot difference it might be quicker.

Actually the quickest way to answer would be to have people start at #1 on the Elo list and stop when they come to a player who is not in their top 30. I think a lot more guys have rankings up to #25, but not past 25. I can say for example that the first 23 players on the list are in my top 30 MLB players. Without NeLeaguers, I am not sure if Yaz or Kaline quite crack my top 30. Clemente has moved up from me but I don't think I ever got him above 35 MLB. Anson makes it as does Dimaggio.

The first 21 on the list are in my top 25.

[1905 Giants]

Mel Ott above Mike Schmidt threw me immediately.

[9RoyHobbsRF]

Bert Blyleven and Don Drysdale over Juan Marichal who isn't even listed?

20 win seasons - Marichal - 6
Drysdale/Blyleven combined - 2

ERA titles - Marichal - 1
Drysdale/Blyleven combined - 0

[brett]

At least the 14 top pitchers are in my top 25, but Mickey Welch at 15????? And higher than Feller?

[leecemark]

--Welch is the biggest surprise/overate for me too. He has been very much a borderline Hall of Famer in projects here and I think that is a much more placment than 15th best pitcher of all time. Surprising too since he is a 19th centruy pitcher with no particularly compellign backstory. I wouldn't have thought most fans would even had heard fo him.

[leecemark]

1. Babe Ruth - ok
2. Willie Mays - ok
3. Ty Cobb - ok
4. Honus Wagner - ok
5. Lou Gehrig - not in my top 10 but not shcoking to see him here
6. Ted Williams - ok
7. Rogers Hornsby - ok
8. Tris Speaker - ok
9. Stan Musial -ok
10. Hank Aaron -ok
11. Nap Lajoie - at least 10 spots too high
12. Eddie Collins - probably 10 spots too high
13. Mickey Mantle- ok
14. Alex Rodriguez -ok
15. Mel Ott - another 10 (or more) spots too high
16. Mike Schmidt - a little low for me, but in keeping with lack of LQ adjustments for ELO
17. Jimmie Foxx - a little high
18. Rickey Henderson - ok
19. Frank Robinson - ok
20. Eddie Mathews -ok (actually a little surprised to see him here although its about where I have him)
21. George Brett - ok
22. Cal Ripken -ok
23. Barry Bonds - obviously a big steroids downgrade here
24. Carl Yaz - ok
25. Al Kaline - at least 10 spots too high
26. Roberto Clemente - ditto
27. Cap Anson - ok
28. Charlie Gehringer - also 10 spots high
29. Chipper Jones - surprisingly high
30. Joe DiMaggio - surprisingly low

Baseball-Reference Elo Pitcher Rankings:
1. Walter Johnson - ok
2. Cy Young - ok
3. Pete Alexander - ok
4. Lefty Grove - ok
5. Christy Mathewson - a little high
6. Warren Spahn - ditto
7. Randy Johnson - ok
8. Greg Maddux - a little low
9. Bob Gibson - a little high
10. Roger Clemens - not bad considering where Bonds dropped too
11. Kid Nichols - ok
12. Steve Carlton - ok
13. Tom Seaver - a little low
14. Sandy Koufax - a little high
15. Mickey Welch - ???????
16. Jim Palmer - a little high
17. Eddie Plank - a little high
18. Bob Feller - a little low
19. Gaylord Perry - ok
20. Ed Walsh - ok
21. John Smoltz - surprisingly high
22. Nolan Ryan - a little high
23. Don Drysdale - way high
24. Mordecai Brown - ok
25. Tim Keefe - ok
26. Dennis Eckersley - seems high
27. Bert Blyleven - ok
28. Carl Hubbell - a little low
29. Pedro Martinez - awfully low
30. Dizzy Dean - way high

[brett]

My highest ranked guys who are missing are Bench who they have at 40th, Berra who's 83rd? That is a surprise.
Jackie Robinson is 63rd and Arky Vaughan 56th.

And Joe Morgan is 32nd, and even though I've brought him down I still have him 19th or 20th.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

I never said the list was great. Would we be interested if I used brett's suggestion of -1 per difference? I'd like to tweak it a bit, if we do, to -1 for every player not within one slot (you have Warren Spahn at #8 and Elo doesn't have him at #7-9, score -1 point)

[Yankillaz]

Is that BBR's Elo Rater? I really don't trust this, since it's a player vs. player thing. Look how the Joe D vs. Mantle ended, something like that could really tarnish a player's position.