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Elo vs BBF

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  • Elo vs BBF

    A game of sorts. How does the Elo rater on BBRef compare to the rankings of BBF? This isn't to say BBF members are better, but I'd like to see how the two compare.

    Below are the top 30 players/pitchers according to the Elo rater. I ask you to post your top 30 players/pitchers. For every ranking that is spot on (both you and Elo have George Brett at #17), score +2 points. If an Elo ranking is within one slot of yours (you have Brett at #17 but Elo has him at 16 or 18), score +1 points. Score 0 points if a ranking is within two slots (you have Brett at #17 but Elo has him at 15,16,18, or 19). Score -1 points if a ranking is three or four slots off. Score -2 points if a ranking is more than five slots off or if one of the lists doesn't contain a player and the other does. No Negro Leaguers. These are all-timers so they should be fairly close. Total everything (separate pitcher from player) at the end of your post. I will continually average the totals until this thread dies.

    Baseball-Reference Elo Player Rankings (as of the creation of this post):
    1. Babe Ruth
    2. Willie Mays
    3. Ty Cobb
    4. Honus Wagner
    5. Lou Gehrig
    6. Ted Williams
    7. Rogers Hornsby
    8. Tris Speaker
    9. Stan Musial
    10. Hank Aaron
    11. Nap Lajoie
    12. Eddie Collins
    13. Mickey Mantle
    14. Alex Rodriguez
    15. Mel Ott
    16. Mike Schmidt
    17. Jimmie Foxx
    18. Rickey Henderson
    19. Frank Robinson
    20. Eddie Mathews
    21. George Brett
    22. Cal Ripken
    23. Barry Bonds
    24. Carl Yaz
    25. Al Kaline
    26. Roberto Clemente
    27. Cap Anson
    28. Charlie Gehringer
    29. Chipper Jones
    30. Joe DiMaggio

    Baseball-Reference Elo Pitcher Rankings:
    1. Walter Johnson
    2. Cy Young
    3. Pete Alexander
    4. Lefty Grove
    5. Christy Mathewson
    6. Warren Spahn
    7. Randy Johnson
    8. Greg Maddux
    9. Bob Gibson
    10. Roger Clemens
    11. Kid Nichols
    12. Steve Carlton
    13. Tom Seaver
    14. Sandy Koufax
    15. Mickey Welch
    16. Jim Palmer
    17. Eddie Plank
    18. Bob Feller
    19. Gaylord Perry
    20. Ed Walsh
    21. John Smoltz
    22. Nolan Ryan
    23. Don Drysdale
    24. Mordecai Brown
    25. Tim Keefe
    26. Dennis Eckersley
    27. Bert Blyleven
    28. Carl Hubbell
    29. Pedro Martinez
    30. Dizzy Dean

    Example rankings to show how it's done:
    1. Babe Ruth (+2)
    2. Ty Cobb (+1)
    3. Willie Mays (+1)
    4. Hank Aaron (-2)
    5. Rogers Hornsby (-1)
    Total: 1

    1. Cy Young (+1)
    2. Bob Gibson (-2)
    3. Pete Alexander (+2)
    4. Nolan Ryan (-2)
    5. Sandy Koufax (-2)
    Total: -3

    The higher the score, the more similar.
    "Allen Sutton Sothoron pitched his initials off today."--1920s article

  • #2
    Not one person?
    "Allen Sutton Sothoron pitched his initials off today."--1920s article


    • #3
      I'm shocked Pedro martinez fell so low. In our elo draft he once was a top 10 pitcher. I think the rankings here are much more accurate.
      "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

      "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)


      • #4
        I don't have a ranking beyond maybe a top 3-5. A quick glance and I see Bonds massively docked, DiMaggio pretty low, Lajoie surprisingly high by a few spots same for Ott and Matthews. On pitchers Gibson is too high. In fact at 10 with Marichal not listed in the top 30, ludicrous. Carlton should never be ahead of Seaver. Clemens is docked but nowhere as severely as Bonds was.


        • #5
          Modern players in general are too heavily docked. Bonds' rating is a joke, even if I don't like the man. There appear be no adjustments for era whatsoever.


          • #6
   I should file this in my "failed projects" folder?
            "Allen Sutton Sothoron pitched his initials off today."--1920s article


            • #7
              Originally posted by Tyrus4189Cobb View Post
              Not one person?
              Too complicated formula for me to do quickly. If we just did -1 for every spot difference it might be quicker.

              Actually the quickest way to answer would be to have people start at #1 on the Elo list and stop when they come to a player who is not in their top 30. I think a lot more guys have rankings up to #25, but not past 25. I can say for example that the first 23 players on the list are in my top 30 MLB players. Without NeLeaguers, I am not sure if Yaz or Kaline quite crack my top 30. Clemente has moved up from me but I don't think I ever got him above 35 MLB. Anson makes it as does Dimaggio.

              The first 21 on the list are in my top 25.


              • #8
                Mel Ott above Mike Schmidt threw me immediately.
                "The first draft of anything is crap." - Ernest Hemingway

                There's no such thing as an ultimate stat.


                • #9
                  Bert Blyleven and Don Drysdale over Juan Marichal who isn't even listed?

                  20 win seasons - Marichal - 6
                  Drysdale/Blyleven combined - 2

                  ERA titles - Marichal - 1
                  Drysdale/Blyleven combined - 0
                  1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
                  2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site:
                  3. My table top gaming blog:


                  • #10
                    At least the 14 top pitchers are in my top 25, but Mickey Welch at 15????? And higher than Feller?


                    • #11
                      --Welch is the biggest surprise/overate for me too. He has been very much a borderline Hall of Famer in projects here and I think that is a much more placment than 15th best pitcher of all time. Surprising too since he is a 19th centruy pitcher with no particularly compellign backstory. I wouldn't have thought most fans would even had heard fo him.


                      • #12
                        1. Babe Ruth - ok
                        2. Willie Mays - ok
                        3. Ty Cobb - ok
                        4. Honus Wagner - ok
                        5. Lou Gehrig - not in my top 10 but not shcoking to see him here
                        6. Ted Williams - ok
                        7. Rogers Hornsby - ok
                        8. Tris Speaker - ok
                        9. Stan Musial -ok
                        10. Hank Aaron -ok
                        11. Nap Lajoie - at least 10 spots too high
                        12. Eddie Collins - probably 10 spots too high
                        13. Mickey Mantle- ok
                        14. Alex Rodriguez -ok
                        15. Mel Ott - another 10 (or more) spots too high
                        16. Mike Schmidt - a little low for me, but in keeping with lack of LQ adjustments for ELO
                        17. Jimmie Foxx - a little high
                        18. Rickey Henderson - ok
                        19. Frank Robinson - ok
                        20. Eddie Mathews -ok (actually a little surprised to see him here although its about where I have him)
                        21. George Brett - ok
                        22. Cal Ripken -ok
                        23. Barry Bonds - obviously a big steroids downgrade here
                        24. Carl Yaz - ok
                        25. Al Kaline - at least 10 spots too high
                        26. Roberto Clemente - ditto
                        27. Cap Anson - ok
                        28. Charlie Gehringer - also 10 spots high
                        29. Chipper Jones - surprisingly high
                        30. Joe DiMaggio - surprisingly low

                        Baseball-Reference Elo Pitcher Rankings:
                        1. Walter Johnson - ok
                        2. Cy Young - ok
                        3. Pete Alexander - ok
                        4. Lefty Grove - ok
                        5. Christy Mathewson - a little high
                        6. Warren Spahn - ditto
                        7. Randy Johnson - ok
                        8. Greg Maddux - a little low
                        9. Bob Gibson - a little high
                        10. Roger Clemens - not bad considering where Bonds dropped too
                        11. Kid Nichols - ok
                        12. Steve Carlton - ok
                        13. Tom Seaver - a little low
                        14. Sandy Koufax - a little high
                        15. Mickey Welch - ???????
                        16. Jim Palmer - a little high
                        17. Eddie Plank - a little high
                        18. Bob Feller - a little low
                        19. Gaylord Perry - ok
                        20. Ed Walsh - ok
                        21. John Smoltz - surprisingly high
                        22. Nolan Ryan - a little high
                        23. Don Drysdale - way high
                        24. Mordecai Brown - ok
                        25. Tim Keefe - ok
                        26. Dennis Eckersley - seems high
                        27. Bert Blyleven - ok
                        28. Carl Hubbell - a little low
                        29. Pedro Martinez - awfully low
                        30. Dizzy Dean - way high


                        • #13
                          My highest ranked guys who are missing are Bench who they have at 40th, Berra who's 83rd? That is a surprise.
                          Jackie Robinson is 63rd and Arky Vaughan 56th.

                          And Joe Morgan is 32nd, and even though I've brought him down I still have him 19th or 20th.


                          • #14
                            I never said the list was great. Would we be interested if I used brett's suggestion of -1 per difference? I'd like to tweak it a bit, if we do, to -1 for every player not within one slot (you have Warren Spahn at #8 and Elo doesn't have him at #7-9, score -1 point)
                            "Allen Sutton Sothoron pitched his initials off today."--1920s article


                            • #15
                              Is that BBR's Elo Rater? I really don't trust this, since it's a player vs. player thing. Look how the Joe D vs. Mantle ended, something like that could really tarnish a player's position.
                              "I am not too serious about anything. I believe you have to enjoy yourself to get the most out of your ability."-
                              George Brett


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