Tris Speaker vs. Honus Wagner

[Cowtipper]

I'm in a match-up type mood today, so here's another one for you guys to mull over. Tris Speaker and Honus Wagner are two of the best players ever. They both had over 3,400 hits, at least 640 doubles and in excess of 220 triples. Both were speedy, they each hit for high averages, they both led the league in a lot of categories a lot of the time and they both had funny first names and nicknames that evoke flying imagery.

Speaker trumps Wagner in hits, runs, doubles, home runs, batting average, OPS+ and WAR, while Wagner beats Speaker in at-bats, triples, RBI, stolen bases and black and grey ink.

But which one was better?

[chicagowhitesox1173]

I always liked Tris Speaker better but Honus Wagner is a top 5 player of alltime. Although this matchup might be a little closer than the Perry vs Maddux one.

I think Wagners versatility helps him alot too.

[CTaka]

I voted for Wagner but I see this as very close. They are very close offensively; I give Speaker the slight edge based on his ability to draw more walks. I give Wagner a clear edge on the bases. While we don't have CS stats for Wagner, the few seasons that we have CS numbers for Speaker, particularly 1914-16, are not impressive. I get the impression that Speaker was a decent base stealer that happened to play in the deadball era when everyone was expected to run; since Speaker was on base so often he ended up with a good number of stolen bases.

The deciding factor to me is based on positional value. A great defensive SS is more valuable than a great defensive CF. Wagner's versatility is also a plus. So I give Honus the nod but again it is very close.

[westsidegrounds]

just a quick reminder that Honus played his home games from 1900 through 1908 at Exposition Park, dimensions 400 ft - 450 ft - 400 ft from left to right.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Baseball-Reference didn't have anything before 1918 but here are Speaker's splits in BA and OPS+ for his last 11 seasons. All were in Cleveland except the last two. In 1927 he played in Griffith and 1928 in Shibe.

SpeakerSplits.jpg

[Cowtipper]

I decided to break from the pack and go with Speaker here.

[willshad]

Speaker is an interesting case. It seems that debates such as Speaker vs Mays and Speaker vs Wagner are at least close enough to argue about, and Mays and Wagner are oftentimes ranked above Cobb. However Cobb vs Speaker seems like a foregone conclusion.

For me, the deciding factor is league quality. it has been said that during his prime, Wagner was the best hitter, base runner, and fielder in the league for a lengthy stretch of years. To me, this says as much about the quality of the league as it does about Wagner himself.

[westsidegrounds]

Interesting. As of this post Wagner is ahead of Speaker 8-2. I'd probably take Wagner myself, but considering that for ten years or so Spoke was the second best position player in the AL, and that the guy he was second to was Ty Cobb, I'd have thought it would be closer than that.

[BigRon]

Interesting. As of this post Wagner is ahead of Speaker 8-2. I'd probably take Wagner myself, but considering that for ten years or so Spoke was the second best position player in the AL, and that the guy he was second to was Ty Cobb, I'd have thought it would be closer than that.

Well, 8-2 CAN be close, if all 8 Wagner voters thought he was just a hair "better" than Speaker- which I imagine may well be the case.

[Ben Grimm]

I had to go with Honus on this one. They were both great, naturally. But I put their best 7 consecutive seasons (at least at quick glance) together using 1903-1909 for Honus and 1910-1916 for Tris. Honus had a 180+ while Tris had 173+, but Wagner had nearly 100 more SBs during the stretch. I think SS was a more demanding position then CF at the time, mainly because of the gloves used and the choppy infields compared to the lushly groomed lawns of today. If the HOF was brand new with these being the only players on the ballot (and I've got 11 votes to keep from a tie happening), I'd vote 7-4 in favor of Honus. Close enough as a race but enough separation (64%-36%) to eliminate a recount.

[brett]

Baseball-Reference didn't have anything before 1918 but here are Speaker's splits in BA and OPS+ for his last 11 seasons. All were in Cleveland except the last two. In 1927 he played in Griffith and 1928 in Shibe.

[ATTACH]116758[/ATTACH]

Note that the home OPS+ does not account for park factors, just Speakers' home rates versus the league at (their) home park.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Is that what that means?

[brett]

Is that what that means?

Yes. There are no park adjustment in t-ops+ or s-ops+.

s-ops+ (home example) is the player's home OPS+ using all players' home rates as the average. (problem is no park factors)
t-ops+ is the players home OPS+ using his total rates as the the average (problem is that a player should be about 8-10% better at home than on the road AND there are no park factors)


In a neutral park, a player with normal splits will have about a 104 home t-ops+ and a 96 road t-ops+. Speaker went 116 and 84 for the years we have and his park averaged about 102% which would give a normal 101 to 99 split. Combine that with the 104 to 96 split for home field advantage and if Speaker had hit normally he would have gone about 105 and 95 home and road, while he actually went 116 and 84. If we just look at the road value of 84 (versus what it should be at 95) he only did about 88% as well in OPS+ on the road as he should have given park effects and home field advantage.

that would make him a "true" 133 road relative OPS+ player during those years (relative to all players on the road) which means he took particular advantage of his park where his "true" park adjusted home relative OPS+ was 164.

This uses all time home field advantage for hitters though, and I wouldn't be surprised if the advantage was greater on average when parks were more diverse.

[westsidegrounds]

Baseball-Reference didn't have anything before 1918 but here are Speaker's splits in BA and OPS+ for his last 11 seasons. All were in Cleveland except the last two. In 1927 he played in Griffith and 1928 in Shibe.

Note that the home OPS+ does not account for park factors, just Speakers' home rates versus the league at (their) home park.

League Park did actually have a Baker Bowl-type left field - 290, topped by a 60-foot wall - but Speaker wasn't a home run hitter and didn't depend on it the way Chuck Klein did. His big home run year, 1923, he hit a grand total of 17, and even then his home/road split was a pretty reasonable 10/7.

So why the big difference?

[leecemark]

--Speaker didn't alot of balls over that wall. but he did hit alot off it. He was a great hitter regardless, but some of his record number of doubles are courtesy of the whatever color it was monster, much as many Red Sox LH hitters have used the Green Moster as a handy target for doubles.