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Top Non-PED User Sluggers of the 1990's.

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  • #91
    Originally posted by willshad View Post
    I see Thome's 2002 season as kind of similar to McCovey's 1969 season. Both men had the same exact career OPS+ (147), but had a peak of a couple of seasons where they far exceeded that. THome had a 170 OPS+ in 2001, then 197 in 2002. McCovey's peak was actually even longer and more extreme than Thome's...as he had 174, 209, and 182 in three seasons in row from 1968-1970.

    A good hitter having one or two seasons where he far exceeds his norm is not really that unusual. Other 'non apex' hitters have had OPS+ scores that were very high (190+) for a single season..including Norm Cash, Carl Yastrzemski, Jeff Bagwell, George Brett, Albert Belle, etc.
    Agree, it doesn't always mean he's a user.
    These spike have probably been taking place for decades, going back some years.
    Now with all the steroid talk in the game we are more aware of them and sets some of us wondering..

    Comment


    • #92
      Originally posted by pheasant View Post
      Jim Thome is way up there on my list and is one of my favorite players ever. I believe that he is the most underrated and unappreciated superstar. Babe Ruth is the only nonroider ahead of him in ab/hr ratio for players with at least 5000 at-bats. Ryan Howard might match him down the road if he doesn't suffer a long decline. But it's too early to tell. Thome is a watered down version of Babe Ruth, when it comes to hitting. He hit for a decent average, drew a boatload of walks, struck out a ton, and had a sky-high HR percentage. I seriously don't believe that Thome took steroids. But you never know for sure.

      Listed below are the career leaders in ab/hr ratio:

      Rank Player (yrs, age) AB per HR Bats
      1. Mark McGwire (16) 10.61 R
      2. Babe Ruth+ (22) 11.76 L
      3. Barry Bonds (22) 12.92 L
      4. Ryan Howard (9, 32) 13.51 L
      5. Jim Thome (22, 41) 13.76 L
      6. Ralph Kiner+ (10) 14.11 R
      7. Harmon Killebrew+ (22) 14.22 R
      8. Sammy Sosa (18) 14.47 R
      9. Albert Pujols (12, 32) 14.57 R
      10. Adam Dunn (12, 32) 14.60 L
      11. Ted Williams+ (19) 14.79 L
      12. Manny Ramirez (19) 14.85 R
      13. Alex Rodriguez (19, 36) 14.93 R
      14. Juan Gonzalez (17) 15.11 R
      Dave Kingman (16) 15.11 R
      16. Russell Branyan (14) 15.12 L
      Mickey Mantle+ (18) 15.12 B
      18. Jimmie Foxx+ (20) 15.23 R
      19. Mike Schmidt+ (18) 15.24 R
      20. Jose Canseco (17) 15.27 R
      Why don't we look at HR/PA which would give us a better look at the power stats. Walks are rated so high here, until it suits our purpose to discount them.
      This week's Giant

      #5 in games played as a Giant with 1721 , Bill Terry

      Comment


      • #93
        Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
        There isn't one iota of reasonable speculation anywhere on the planet that he did.
        I love it.

        "reasonable speculation"

        God Bless this forum. What else would I have to shake my head and laugh about. Nothing personal, that just struck as funny. The steroid web and jargon will never unwind.
        This week's Giant

        #5 in games played as a Giant with 1721 , Bill Terry

        Comment


        • #94
          Originally posted by White Knight View Post
          I didn't say he wasn't an apex power hitter, but he's certainly not an apex OPS+ man. Not saying he used, but 197 is always suspicious. I mean, if Albert Pujols had done it in 2009, it wouldn't be suspicious, because he always was within 10-15 of that range consistently. But 197 is insane for Thome.
          So he's not an APEX OPS+ guy therefore his OPS+ is a sign of steroid use?? Is 197 out of line with a career 147 for 10K PAs, 150 for a stretch of over 9500 over 18 years?

          Thome peaked at 197 and was at 150 for over 9500 PAs over 18 years
          Lajoie peaked at 203 and was 150 for 10,500
          Thomas peaked at 212 and was 156 for 10,000
          Wagner peaked at 205 and totaled 150
          Delahanty peaked at 190 and totaled 152 for fewer than 8500 PAs
          Allen peaked at 199 and totalled 156 over just 7300
          Brett peaked at over 200 and totalled 135

          Comment


          • #95
            Originally posted by brett View Post
            So he's not an APEX OPS+ guy therefore his OPS+ is a sign of steroid use?? Is 197 out of line with a career 147 for 10K PAs, 150 for a stretch of over 9500 over 18 years?

            Thome peaked at 197 and was at 150 for over 9500 PAs over 18 years
            Lajoie peaked at 203 and was 150 for 10,500
            Thomas peaked at 212 and was 156 for 10,000
            Wagner peaked at 205 and totaled 150
            Delahanty peaked at 190 and totaled 152 for fewer than 8500 PAs
            Allen peaked at 199 and totalled 156 over just 7300
            Brett peaked at over 200 and totalled 135
            Most of those were bad examples, but I'll just talk about one because it's just too aggravating. Thomas? Really? Thomas??? That man was the definition of an apex hitter and OPS+ man. He was the only one who could go toe to toe with Bonds in the 1990's, sometimes even surpassing him. Fact: He went seven straight seasons of an OPS+ of 174 or more. That's something Pujols or even Bonds himself couldn't accomplish. His final OPS+ is irreverent to this discussion. It only dropped because of an early decline. His peak was so amazing that a 197 OPS+ would be perfectly fine for him.

            Consider this. No one in MLB had an OPS+ of 174 last year. Yet Thomas did it for seven straight seasons, and averaged 182 in that span. Apex was his middle name.
            Lou Gehrig is the Truest Yankee of them all!

            Comment


            • #96
              Originally posted by White Knight View Post
              Most of those were bad examples, but I'll just talk about one because it's just too aggravating. Thomas? Really? Thomas??? That man was the definition of an apex hitter and OPS+ man. He was the only one who could go toe to toe with Bonds in the 1990's, sometimes even surpassing him. Fact: He went seven straight seasons of an OPS+ of 174 or more. That's something Pujols or even Bonds himself couldn't accomplish. His final OPS+ is irreverent to this discussion. It only dropped because of an early decline. His peak was so amazing that a 197 OPS+ would be perfectly fine for him.

              Consider this. No one in MLB had an OPS+ of 174 last year. Yet Thomas did it for seven straight seasons, and averaged 182 in that span. Apex was his middle name.
              You kind of missed the point. The point was that it is not unusual, and in fact it probably happens more often than not, that a good hitter will have one or two seasons in his career where he peaks at way above his normal level. Sure, sometimes it is due to steroids, but even guys who we are fairly certain were clean, they still had similar peak seasons. Take just about any hitter who is about on Thome's level, and see where their seasonal OPS+ peaked at. Mike Schmidt was about the same exact hitter as Thome, and his two year peak was 171, and 198 OPS+..almost identical to Thome's 170, 197 scores. I already mentioned McCovey, who peaked even higher. Stargell had 185 and 186 seasons. Carlos Delgado had a 181 OPS+ season. Sheffield had a 189 OPS+ one year, as did Reggie jackson. Piazza had a 185 OPS+ season,as did Edgar Martinez. I can go on.

              Im not saying Thome was clean, in fact I am more suspicious of him than I am of Bagwell and Piazza..but his 197 OPS+ season is not itself evidence of this. If anything, his late peak and unusual longevity are better sources of suspicion.
              Last edited by willshad; 03-02-2013, 11:45 PM.

              Comment


              • #97
                Originally posted by willshad View Post
                You kind of missed the point. The point was that it is not unusual, and in fact it probably happens more often than not, that a good hitter will have one or two seasons in his career where he peaks at way above his normal level. Sure, sometimes it is due to steroids, but even guys who we are fairly certain were clean, they still had similar peak seasons. Take just about any hitter who is about on Thome's level, and see where their seasonal OPS+ peaked at. Mike Schmidt was about the same exact hitter as Thome, and his two year peak was 171, and 198 OPS+..almost identical to Thome's 170, 197 scores. I already mentioned McCovey, who peaked even higher. Stargell had 185 and 186 seasons. Carlos Delgado had a 181 OPS+ season. Sheffield had a 189 OPS+ one year, as did Reggie jackson. Piazza had a 185 OPS+ season,as did Edgar Martinez. I can go on.

                Im not saying Thome was clean, in fact I am more suspicious of him than I am of Bagwell and Piazza..but his 197 OPS+ season is not itself evidence of this. If anything, his late peak and unusual longevity are better sources of suspicion.
                Yes thank you, the point is not that Thomas wasn't, but that Thome was.

                Top OPS+:
                197
                (182 not qualifying)
                170
                167
                157
                156
                155
                154
                153
                150
                144


                He'll probably say Schimidt was a poor example because his peak was a strike shortened season,
                That Brett's was a bad example because he only did it for 117 games
                Delahanty, Wagner, Lajoie because they were hitting a deadball
                Allen because the league offense was so low in 1972
                And I forgot Yaz, '67 which would probably be "one of the biggest statistical anomalies in the history of the game".

                Thome had 9 qualifying seasons over 150.
                Pujols has 10 and may not do it again.
                Foxx had 10 (yea but he had a quick decline right?)

                OK how about Musial '48 at 200 but finishing at 159? I guess that's because he lasted so long.
                Hank Aaron went 194 in '71 (yea in a launching pad right?)

                It may be a little odd that Thome hit 52 home runs in 480 at bats, but he did it at age 31 which is around the power peak for hitters, (not say at age 37 or something). In fact, healthy hitters tend to peak as HITTERS between about 27-32, and even later in power.
                Last edited by brett; 03-04-2013, 02:49 PM.

                Comment


                • #98
                  I don't see how Thome is suspicious in any way. Nor Bagwell, nor Thomas. They are stars. It would have came out. They would have been on a list. McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro, Juan Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez, Canseco, Caminiti, Giambi, Sheffield, Clemens, Pettitte, Kevin Brown, Tejada all got brought out. All the way down to Tim Laker and Cody McKay!

                  Where were Bagwell, Thome and Thomas getting their PED's that they somehow have escaped any accusations? The only places I've seen them accused are here.
                  Last edited by bluesky5; 03-04-2013, 06:23 PM.
                  "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                  Comment


                  • #99
                    Originally posted by brett View Post
                    Yes thank you, the point is not that Thomas wasn't, but that Thome was.

                    Top OPS+:
                    197
                    (182 not qualifying)
                    170
                    167
                    157
                    156
                    155
                    154
                    153
                    150
                    144


                    He'll probably say Schimidt was a poor example because his peak was a strike shortened season,
                    That Brett's was a bad example because he only did it for 117 games
                    Delahanty, Wagner, Lajoie because they were hitting a deadball
                    Allen because the league offense was so low in 1972
                    And I forgot Yaz, '67 which would probably be "one of the biggest statistical anomalies in the history of the game".

                    Thome had 9 qualifying seasons over 150.
                    Pujols has 10 and may not do it again.
                    Foxx had 10 (yea but he had a quick decline right?)

                    OK how about Musial '48 at 200 but finishing at 159? I guess that's because he lasted so long.
                    Hank Aaron went 194 in '71 (yea in a launching pad right?)

                    It may be a little odd that Thome hit 52 home runs in 480 at bats, but he did it at age 31 which is around the power peak for hitters, (not say at age 37 or something). In fact, healthy hitters tend to peak as HITTERS between about 27-32, and even later in power.
                    You exaggerated what I would have said, but for the most part you are correct. I don't care about 9 or 10 seasons over 150, that's nothing insanely rare. Show me seven straight seasons at 174 or more and then we'll talk. Thome's peak was nothing elite at all, then he does 197. Nearly every player mentioned above was more elite than Thome and are ranked higher than him. He was the quietest 600 club member ever, and will remain that way, unless Dunn finds a way there in five years. He doesn't impress me much.
                    Lou Gehrig is the Truest Yankee of them all!

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
                      I don't see how Thome is suspicious in any way. Nor Bagwell, nor Thomas. They are stars. It would have came out. They would have been on a list. McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro, Juan Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez, Canseco, Caminiti, Giambi, Sheffield, Clemens, Pettitte, Kevin Brown, Tejada all got brought out. All the way down to Tim Laker and Cody McKay!

                      Where were Bagwell, Thome and Thomas getting their PED's that they somehow have escaped any accusations? The only places I've seen them accused are here.
                      That list was 2003 and there are 104 players there. 3-5 have been outed. How do you know they aren't on the list? Have you seen in personally?
                      Lou Gehrig is the Truest Yankee of them all!

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by White Knight View Post
                        You exaggerated what I would have said, but for the most part you are correct. I don't care about 9 or 10 seasons over 150, that's nothing insanely rare. Show me seven straight seasons at 174 or more and then we'll talk. Thome's peak was nothing elite at all, then he does 197. Nearly every player mentioned above was more elite than Thome and are ranked higher than him. He was the quietest 600 club member ever, and will remain that way, unless Dunn finds a way there in five years. He doesn't impress me much.
                        So we are talking about steroid use though. Do you think he juiced up for one or two seasons, '01 and '02 and then stopped?

                        I think that what we see in '03 was a guy who just came up a little more from '02 but at that point he was approaching a level where the meaning of OPS+ starts to get obscure. He struck out a little less, hit a few more home runs, and then he got pitched around more, intentionally and semi-intentionally walked more.

                        I always felt for example that had Barry Bonds say in '01-'04 not been walked so much, his raw stats would have gone up because of more at bats, but his rates would have ALL dropped, maybe to .325/.500/.750 which would have dropped his 4 year OPS+ from 256 to about 225. When you get to a certain level the pitchers' approaches tend to raise OPS+ though they might actually reduce damage.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by brett View Post
                          So we are talking about steroid use though. Do you think he juiced up for one or two seasons, '01 and '02 and then stopped?

                          I think that what we see in '03 was a guy who just came up a little more from '02 but at that point he was approaching a level where the meaning of OPS+ starts to get obscure. He struck out a little less, hit a few more home runs, and then he got pitched around more, intentionally and semi-intentionally walked more.

                          I always felt for example that had Barry Bonds say in '01-'04 not been walked so much, his raw stats would have gone up because of more at bats, but his rates would have ALL dropped, maybe to .325/.500/.750 which would have dropped his 4 year OPS+ from 256 to about 225. When you get to a certain level the pitchers' approaches tend to raise OPS+ though they might actually reduce damage.
                          I don't think there is ny doubt about that. Yes stats based on cumulative numbers up but percentage based stats go down.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by brett View Post
                            So we are talking about steroid use though. Do you think he juiced up for one or two seasons, '01 and '02 and then stopped?

                            I think that what we see in '03 was a guy who just came up a little more from '02 but at that point he was approaching a level where the meaning of OPS+ starts to get obscure. He struck out a little less, hit a few more home runs, and then he got pitched around more, intentionally and semi-intentionally walked more.

                            I always felt for example that had Barry Bonds say in '01-'04 not been walked so much, his raw stats would have gone up because of more at bats, but his rates would have ALL dropped, maybe to .325/.500/.750 which would have dropped his 4 year OPS+ from 256 to about 225. When you get to a certain level the pitchers' approaches tend to raise OPS+ though they might actually reduce damage.
                            Well, I just think it was suspicious, I'm certainly not saying I think he used for sure. If he did, some players bodies react differently. Did Brady Anderson use for just a year? He only had one monster season. Or did his body just adjust the steroids and make him his normal self again? Who knows, maybe Brady really didn't use at all. Maris didn't use, and his 1961 came out of nowhere (of course, expansion helped and so did Mantle's protection).

                            I agree with you on Bonds, although I think the slugging would be higher than .750. Without all those intention and unintentional walks, he probably hits 65-75 home runs for four years in a row. I think the BA would be a bit higher too, maybe .335.
                            Lou Gehrig is the Truest Yankee of them all!

                            Comment


                            • I'm surprised that pre-steroid Bonds didn't make the list here. Bonds was huge from 1990-1998(181 OPS+).

                              Comment

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