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As we continue the pitching surge of the 2010s, I began thinking of where pitching is headed in terms of use. One of the reasons we've seen the return of pitching (compared to mid 90s-mid 2000s) is the use of specialized, skilled relievers who can last an inning and retire the side through deception or sheer speed (more than ever guys are reaching 99 mph).
So where exactly are things going for use of pitchers? Let's do a quick recap of the trend:
Baseball beginnings-1860s(-ish): pitcher is unspecialized member of the field; more of a "thrower" placed just to throw the ball to hitters (the original meaning of "pitcher" was one who simply "pitched" the ball to purposefully allow the batter to hit it). In general, being a pitcher can be done by most anyone and is determined as easily as a team might determine a wiffleball pitcher. Mentality of "yeah, I'll pitch today."
Rise of National Assocation-early 1890s: pitcher has been designated the purpose of retiring the batter. Very heavy workloads (good pitchers reaching upper 400s of IP), all games expected to be completed, usually pitch every other game.
Early 1890s-late 1910s: Since 1892 increase of pitching distance, there are typically three-man rotations and no longer going 500+ innings ( post-1900 leaders in IP typically throwing 350). Still a heavy workload, expectance to finish games.
1920s-early 1950s: Still same expectations, but IP declining because the hitting era makes it difficult to last into later innings. Relief pitching arguably in its infancy, typically failed starters or spot starters.
1950s-1960s: Complete game is declining, more four-man rotations seen. Pioneer era of relievers (Wilhelm, Face, Konstanty).
1970s-late 1980s: Reliever has become more accepted as a member of the team. Complete games no loner as necessary because Firemen can end the game in one, two, sometimes three innings.
1990s-present: Closers gradually become exclusive to the one-inning save. More and more relievers are added with specific roles: lefty specialists, set-up, and middle relief. By the 21st century, the complete game is generally dead, only seen by a few rare workhorses or pitchers dominating in a game. Pitch counts play a significant role.
Regardless of my era accuracy, we get the idea. Over the past 130 years, pitching use has gone from ultra dependence on the starter to dividing the work to a specialized team. So, where is pitching, in terms of pitcher use, headed?
If I am to follow the trend, I don't believe we'll reach the point of a seven-man rotation. It's too impractical. I believe, if the history is precedent, pitching duties will belong to a team of men. That is, the starter will go three innings, take two days rest, then appear in relief. There will be a lot of spot-starting as opposed to five designated starters. Good pitchers will reach around 120 IP, 25 GS, and 10 games in relief by oh, say 2025-2030. The closer will still exist.
The idea of a staff constructed of various guys starting, relieving, and finishing games according to when their needed has been tossed around on this site (and by others), but I believe it is a very real possibility for reality.
So where exactly are things going for use of pitchers? Let's do a quick recap of the trend:
Baseball beginnings-1860s(-ish): pitcher is unspecialized member of the field; more of a "thrower" placed just to throw the ball to hitters (the original meaning of "pitcher" was one who simply "pitched" the ball to purposefully allow the batter to hit it). In general, being a pitcher can be done by most anyone and is determined as easily as a team might determine a wiffleball pitcher. Mentality of "yeah, I'll pitch today."
Rise of National Assocation-early 1890s: pitcher has been designated the purpose of retiring the batter. Very heavy workloads (good pitchers reaching upper 400s of IP), all games expected to be completed, usually pitch every other game.
Early 1890s-late 1910s: Since 1892 increase of pitching distance, there are typically three-man rotations and no longer going 500+ innings ( post-1900 leaders in IP typically throwing 350). Still a heavy workload, expectance to finish games.
1920s-early 1950s: Still same expectations, but IP declining because the hitting era makes it difficult to last into later innings. Relief pitching arguably in its infancy, typically failed starters or spot starters.
1950s-1960s: Complete game is declining, more four-man rotations seen. Pioneer era of relievers (Wilhelm, Face, Konstanty).
1970s-late 1980s: Reliever has become more accepted as a member of the team. Complete games no loner as necessary because Firemen can end the game in one, two, sometimes three innings.
1990s-present: Closers gradually become exclusive to the one-inning save. More and more relievers are added with specific roles: lefty specialists, set-up, and middle relief. By the 21st century, the complete game is generally dead, only seen by a few rare workhorses or pitchers dominating in a game. Pitch counts play a significant role.
Regardless of my era accuracy, we get the idea. Over the past 130 years, pitching use has gone from ultra dependence on the starter to dividing the work to a specialized team. So, where is pitching, in terms of pitcher use, headed?
If I am to follow the trend, I don't believe we'll reach the point of a seven-man rotation. It's too impractical. I believe, if the history is precedent, pitching duties will belong to a team of men. That is, the starter will go three innings, take two days rest, then appear in relief. There will be a lot of spot-starting as opposed to five designated starters. Good pitchers will reach around 120 IP, 25 GS, and 10 games in relief by oh, say 2025-2030. The closer will still exist.
The idea of a staff constructed of various guys starting, relieving, and finishing games according to when their needed has been tossed around on this site (and by others), but I believe it is a very real possibility for reality.
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