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Mike Piazza vs Josh Gibson

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  • Originally posted by drstrangelove View Post
    Exactly on what date to Black players becomes superstars capable of dominating MVP votes, ROY votes, win-shares, WAR and WAA?
    Apparently, 4-15-47 and not one damned day earlier.
    3 6 10 21 29 31 35 41 42 44 47

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    • Randy, I found this article especially for you!


      1970-06-12 The Daily News pg 15.jpg
      Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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      • Originally posted by drstrangelove View Post
        Of course if one considers Piazza better because the 15th best hitter in 2000 is by definition better than the best hitters in 1930-1946, it raises a question as to the emotional love fest over every white player who played in the 1930's. Do people ONLY use LQ adjustments for Black players? How is it that the hitters of the 1930's are so amazing ONLY if they are white.
        There is no emotional anything. It's pretty clear it's all about caliber of competition and legitimacy of numbers put up. There's no sense in pretending Negro League numbers were on par with Major League numbers in terms of competition, difficulty, or even accuracy. It is what it is.

        I am among those who believe many Negro Leaguers would rightfully belong among anyone's top 20. It's unfortunate they never got to prove their worth.

        I have posted on here about their many hardships. The trials and tribulations they must have experienced. Their true love for the game, that if given some breaks (or normal treatment) along the way, would have led to better performance by them.

        Better competition would have led to better performance as well. Not just in striving to win with fire in belly, as they did in exhibitions against whites who were truly playing an exhibition. But in having better teammates who could share and learn from them. That is the essence of trial and error and the flow which takes place over the decades. Slowly but surely. Each generation learns from the next. The smallest of details. It all matters.

        Ok I'm done rambling. But I'm getting pretty tired of a certain section of the site trying to paint another section (who are just honestly expressing an educated opinion) as some kind of rac*sts. Fact of the matter....it's one side strongly defending unproven and unreliable numbers and hiding behind that curtain of race, essentially pointing the finger. As if anyone who doesn't believe Gibson his 800 dingers must have an agenda. Silly.

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        • Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
          Randy, I found this article especially for you!
          And where it is from is all I needed to see. And skimming to see they mention him hitting a ball out of Yankee Stadium. Hogwash.
          Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 02-09-2015, 09:51 PM.

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          • Originally posted by drstrangelove View Post
            I know that:

            1) Gibson was considered the most dangerous hitter in the NeL
            2) 50% of all the cream of the crop (best) players in baseball were in the NeL between 1930-1946
            3) That makes Gibson among the most dangerous hitters in 1930-1946 for the combined ML and NeL
            4) Meanwhile, Piazza was only the 15th best hitter in 1993-2006 using OPS+

            That makes Gibson better than Piazza as a hitter.


            The only way to argue that Piazza is better is to believe that:

            1) all hitters in 1993-2006 were on the whole much better than the hitters of 1930-1946. I know that some of you for a fact do not believe this. We can list post after post showing that you don't believe this for a second.

            Or

            2) or, that the best white hitters in 1930-1946 were substantially better hitters than the best Black hitters in 1930-1946, and then a few months later, Black players started playing MLB and suddenly were hitting the most homers, winning the best awards, dominating ASG appearances.


            Exactly on what date to Black players becomes superstars capable of dominating MVP votes, ROY votes, win-shares, WAR and WAA? What was the cause of this change? Aliens?



            I find it ironic that people who are emotionally tied to a belief that players were all better in the early 1930's, must use aliens to explain a choice of the 15th best hitter in 2000 over one of the best hitters in the 1930's.


            [ATTACH]145687[/ATTACH]
            You are using backwards logic. First of all, you are basing Gibson's ranking among 1930s players on what he was 'considered'. So what if he was 'considered' one of the best hitters? We have exactly zero stats to back this up. Jim Rice was considered the best hitter and most dangerous of the 1970s, does that mean that Gibson was as good as Jim Rice? Piazza easily beats him in that case.
            You then try to downplay how good Piazza was, by saying he was 15 best during his career. How many of the other 14 used steroids? How many more players were around during his time? It's pretty obvious to me that, although hitters are not necessarily better now then they were in Gibson's time, during Piazza's time there were many more great hitters around than at any other time in history. If he was playing now, he would probably be the best hitter in all of baseball. Still, it proves nothing with regards to Gibson. In the ML, Gibson might have been another Jimmie Foxx, but he might have been another Heinie Manush. He might have been a bench player. We do not know.
            Last edited by willshad; 02-09-2015, 11:13 PM.

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            • Originally posted by willshad View Post
              You are using backwards logic.
              No, actually you are.

              Gibson was regarded as the best hitter of his era within the NeL. The top 5-10 hitters in the NeL were equal to the top 5-10 in MLB. His level is therefore equivalent to someone who was considered the best hitter of his era. That ranks him above Piazza.
              Piazza was amazing for a catcher----but few people seem to realize he never led the league in a single offensive category. Pretty unimpressive for someone who is the best. (He led in OPS+ 2 times, but since most people ignore that metric, we're going to go by those rules.)

              Gibson was dominant. Piazza wasn't.


              Originally posted by willshad View Post
              First of all, you are basing Gibson's ranking among 1930s players on what he was 'considered'. So what if he was 'considered' one of the best hitters? We have exactly zero stats to back this up. Jim Rice was considered the best hitter and most dangerous of the 1970s, does that mean that Gibson was as good as Jim Rice? Piazza easily beats him in that case.
              Nope. During Rice's career Mike Schmidt, George Brett, Eddie Murray, Don Mattingly, Pedro Guerrero, and Reggie Jackson were considered more dangerous. And for those that took into account Rice's Coors Field advantage (115-85), he was downgraded even farther. Don't be revisionist. Playing in Fenway as a RH flyball hitter doesn't "make" you the best hitter anymore than playing football as an adult with 8 year old's makes you Jim Brown.


              Originally posted by willshad View Post
              You then try to downplay how good Piazza was, by saying he was 15 best during his career. How many of the other 14 used steroids?
              News flash. Piazza used PEDs. He's already said so. So that straw man can go back to the corn field.

              Originally posted by willshad View Post
              How many more players were around during his time? It's pretty obvious to me that, although hitters are not necessarily better now then they were in Gibson's time, during Piazza's time there were many more great hitters around than at any other time in history.
              Yes. A response to one of my points. So, they were just as good back then as they are now---and Gibson was considered one the most dangerous in that era in the NeL when they were just as good as they are now. So, he would therefore be one of the most dangerous in Piazza's era. That makes him a better hitter than Piazza who was surpassed by many other hitters.

              Originally posted by willshad View Post
              Still, it proves nothing with regards to Gibson. In the ML, Gibson might have been another Jimmie Foxx, but he might have been another Heinie Manush. He might have been a bench player. "I" do not know.
              Well, if this is your key point then it applies to everyone in the 1920-1946 period since none of them played in the 1993-2006 period. All of them could have been as good as Foxx or Manush or a bench player. "You" do not know.

              There were real people who really saw Gibson play and really played against him who also really played against DiMaggio, Musial, Williams, and Foxx, and who were really impressed that he was an exceptionally dangerous hitter. So we do know.

              Some people refuse what's obvious without a number or a video to look at:

              They didn't have IQ tests back when Einstein invented his theories. Do we know if he was smart?
              They didn't have video cameras back when Napoleon commanded his armies. Do we know if he was a good general?
              They didn't have DNA tests back when Columbus landed in the Caribbean. Do we know if those were really Native Americans?
              They haven't actually been on the sun? Do we really know if it's hot?

              Some people will never know what they don't want to know. World turns.
              Last edited by drstrangelove; 02-10-2015, 01:26 PM.
              "It's better to look good, than be good."

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              • Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
                No, can't be done.
                I agree. I even think that pre WW2 MLB is almost impossible to compare with "modern Baseball" and the negro leagues even moreso. of course there have been great negro league Players that would have done well in any era, just like ruth or williams would have done well in every era but the actual stats are just extremely hard to compare.

                I think we can say with some confidence that Gibson was a really good ballplayer but quantifying it is just very hard to do if not impossible.
                I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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                • *Gibson =Bench in my mind.

                  *800 homers and 84 in a yr...you'd think they'd back that up, at least a little.
                  I don't doubt Gibson hits say 400 in the majors if he'd played 15-17 yrs. Why not?

                  *Gibson as Manush: Manush another line driver ala Cuyler or Roush, totally different animal. Gibson much better likely.

                  *I like the ads showing 'real Mexican Steel bands'. Wonder what the cover charge was.

                  *Was Gibson even the best power hitter in the black leagues? Suttles ?
                  Last edited by Bucketfoot; 02-10-2015, 04:00 AM.

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                  • The stats Honus posted show 30-40 game seasons and under 2000 AB. Yet the articles reference 170 game seasons. Where and what are those records they used to come up with that? I'm not trying to be skeptical just inquisitive.

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                    • This is a very interesting thread, and I thank everyone who has contributed to it.

                      Originally posted by PVNICK View Post
                      The stats Honus posted show 30-40 game seasons and under 2000 AB. Yet the articles reference 170 game seasons. Where and what are those records they used to come up with that? I'm not trying to be skeptical just inquisitive.
                      Most of his games (roughly 70%, it's thought) were exhibition ones against non-NeL competition. The stats for these games are really anecdotal, but they're not unreasonable if we project from the NeL data.

                      From Wiki:

                      Based on research of historical accounts performed for the Special Committee on the Negro Leagues, Gibson hit 224 homers in 2,375 at-bats against top black teams, 2 in 56 at-bats against white major-league pitchers and 44 in 450 AB in the Mexican League.
                      These Negro League totals, if accurate*, work out to 1 HR per 10.6 AB, putting him essentially in a dead heat with McGwire, and well ahead of everyone else, including Ruth. (Suttles is listed as having more NeL HR, but he had more ABs, and his AB/HR rate was 13.6). You would think his HR rate would be even higher in the exhibition games that were the majority of his competition, but even using that 10.6 AB per HR value, it's easy to see how he might hit more than 70 HR in 170 games, and 800 (one of the stories posted upthread even claims 962) over his career. These are clearly estimates, but they don't strike me as totally wild and inconceivable totals. E.g., with that HR rate, he would just need to average 500 AB per season for seventeen years to get to 800 HR, or 600 AB per season to get to 962.

                      Some may argue that the quality of pitching in the NeL was inferior to that of white MLB—his rate in the Mexican League was about the same--but surely one can make a rough estimate of how much that would affect his HR rate. Even if one claimed the NeL relative to contemporary MLB was comparable to triple A relative to MLB today, it would seem he would still be in the top 5 all-time. I think of, e.g., the estimates of what Ichiro would have produced had he been in MLB from his early 20s. Surely the same general approach would be applicable with Gibson.

                      I think his tape measure HR also offer insight. According to one of the stories posted upthread, one of Gibson’s massive blasts was actually measured at 512 feet. That alone indicates he had very rare power, as there are very few MLB players who ever hit a HR that far. So just for starters, we might place him in a peer group of these players, say, every player known to have hit a HR over 500 feet. But further, there is probably enough believable anecdotal evidence to make some rough estimate of how many tape measure HR—say, more than 450 feet--he hit in his career. We have precise data of this kind today, and can use it to refine further the peer group. This group can be defined not just by how many HR of a certain distance they hit, but by average HR distance, average FB distance, and from there, to power stats like HR (a way of complementing 1) and SLG. I think we could use such analyses as an independent way to estimate what his career totals would be at the MLB level.

                      *As posted upthread, BBRef lists his NeL stats as just 107 HR/1825 AB. The Wiki page has a similar listing of 115 HR/1855 AB, and includes this:

                      Recent investigations into Negro league statistics, using box scores from newspapers from across the United States, have led to the estimate that, although as many as two thirds of Negro league team games were played against inferior competition (as traveling exhibition games), Gibson still hit between 150 and 200 home runs in official Negro league games.[6] Though this number appears very conservative next to the statements of "almost 800" to 1000 home runs, this research also credits Gibson with a rate of one home run every 15.9 at bats, which compares favorably with the rates of the top nine home run hitters in Major League history.
                      They don't really explain the discrepancy--107 or 115 HR in 1800+ AB vs. 224 in 2375 AB. If all of these are correct, he hit a HR in less than every 5 AB in an additional 500+ ABs vs. non-NeL, but top African-American, competition. The BBRef listing has the fewest HR, and the worst HR rate, about 17.0 AB per HR, which is not consistent with 800 HR in a seventeen year career averaging 170 games. But again, even if his rate were just 17 in NeL competition, one would expect it to be better in the much larger number of exhibition games.

                      To summarize, here are various listings of his AB/HR (HR):

                      BBRef NeL: 17.0 (107)
                      National BB HOF: 16.1 (115)
                      MacMillian BB Encyclopedia NeL: 11.5 (146)
                      Wiki "top black teams": 10.6 (224)
                      Wiki Mexican League: 10.2 (44)
                      Wiki Cuban Winter League: 16.0 (14)
                      Last edited by Stolensingle; 02-10-2015, 05:21 AM.

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                      • Gibson's account of that home run at Yankee Stadium.


                        Josh Gibson Yankee Stadium.JPG
                        ". . . the Ruth, the whole Ruth and nothing but the Ruth . . ."

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
                          The stats at seamheads and BB-Ref. are against black major league competition only. The 800 HR number is including exhibitions and barnstorming.
                          Did you know that Julio Franco is going to play in Asia at age 56? Are you aware that between in professional leagues (MLB, NPBL, LMB, LIDOM and KBO) he has north of 3600 hits? If you add his minor league hits he gets 4229. If he gets over 27 hits he'll have more than Rose in organized baseball? The same thing can be said about Gibson's 800 home runs, and with less cred. I consider Franco a great natural hitter who didn't struck out. But that's just me.
                          "I am not too serious about anything. I believe you have to enjoy yourself to get the most out of your ability."-
                          George Brett

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                          • Per the stats listed earlier, Gibson had a 1.025 OPS. The two closest to that mark in MLB were Greenberg at 1.018 and Foxx at 1.038.

                            I haven't seen anything yet that proves my theory wrong that Gibson hit like Foxx. Of course, I cannot prove my theory either.

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                            • Originally posted by pheasant View Post
                              Per the stats listed earlier, Gibson had a 1.025 OPS. The two closest to that mark in MLB were Greenberg at 1.018 and Foxx at 1.038.

                              I haven't seen anything yet that proves my theory wrong that Gibson hit like Foxx. Of course, I cannot prove my theory either.
                              True. Pheasant, to what league NL might be comparable? I say this because there IS some precedent in another sport. Back in the late 60s to mid 70s the NBA had competition from the CBA. Heck, from 1973 to 1976 the CBA was more popular than the NBA and had "better" players. What happened when both leagues merged? The otherwordly stats that players like Julius Erving, Dan Issel or Artis Gilmore were putting got leveled. Instead of Erving being a 30 ppg scorer, he got down to the low 20s. Gilmore wasn't the beast at center as players like Kareem, Walton, Hayes and others made a living of feisting on him. Issel? He became a defensive liability, and even though his game translated to the NBA better than the previous two, his scoring also went south.

                              It's easy to emphasize that X league might be equal-better-worse than the other, but do we have credit (besides a small sample game) to tell us accurately that the Negro Leagues were equal to the MLB? And if it's a bit lower, something I understand to be true, what league can it be comparable?
                              "I am not too serious about anything. I believe you have to enjoy yourself to get the most out of your ability."-
                              George Brett

                              Comment


                              • I stopped coming back to this thread last night because I couldn't tell if people were being serious when they asked questions about Gibson's career or the Negro Leagues, or if they were just making fun of the whole thing. Sultan, nobody here is calling anybody else a racist. Nobody here is hiding behind race or anything ridiculous like that. So can you stop with those comments? No need to drag the site down with such nonsense.

                                Stolensingle posted Gibson's career HR/AB of 10.6, which leads all Negro League hitters and is well ahead of #2 Mule Suttles at 13.6. This is on his baseball-reference.com bullpen page, not some scary black baseball propaganda website. It isn't held in some secret compartment in the basement of conspiracy theory HQ, guarded by baffoons in tinfoil hats. That same page names Suttles as the #1 in career home runs, Gibson #2, but Josh is also #3 in lifetime batting average among those players with 2000 league at-bats. At no time do any of these statistics count anything that happened while playing non-league games. No exhibitions, barnstorming, or games with teams in other countries. I know some can get real confused by all of that, but rest assured that there are people digging into the league games to pull out these stats.

                                So here is Josh Gibson, a catcher, who is the #2 man in career home runs, #1 in career HR/AB, and #3 in career batting average (.003 points behind leader Judd Wilson, .001 point behind #2 John Beckwith), and we have people here doubting he was one of the greatest hitters in baseball history? On top of that, on that same user-friendly, mainstream, non-scary-tinfoil-hat website of baseball-reference, Gibson is listed as going 21 for 56 (.375) against major league pitching.
                                "It ain't braggin' if you can do it." Dizzy Dean

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