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Carl Yastrzemski's odd career

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  • All there are is percentages up the vertical arrow. Everything else is unlabeled so it is effectively a rohrschact test. I think it shows averages based on proximity to the Mississippi River. Tell whoever made it to label the horizonatal axis and make the colors something other than bluegreen and green blue.

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    • Originally posted by PVNICK View Post
      All there are is percentages up the vertical arrow.
      Those are differences in home and away wOBA.
      Contextual clues and all that.


      Everything else is unlabeled so it is effectively a rohrschact test. I think it shows averages based on proximity to the Mississippi River. Tell whoever made it to label the horizonatal axis and make the colors something other than bluegreen and green blue.
      Aesthetics of the graphs aside, you could always read the article
      For starters, home field advantage is a real thing, and most players hit better at home than they do on the road. Last year, non-pitchers posted an aggregate .327 wOBA in their home parks and a .314 wOBA on the road. In 2011, it was .326/.315. In 2010, it was .335/.317. For the 714 players who have garnered at least 100 PA at both home and road over the last five years, the weighted average comes out to a 14 point wOBA advantage at home. Pretty much every player is better than his road performance alone suggests.
      , the fact is that the vast majority of players hit worse on the road than they do at home so it's not appropriate to base a a player's true talent off of his road numbers.

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      • Originally posted by filihok View Post
        ????
        No it doesn't. How can it be only showing the 'biggest' if it extends from +.08 to -.06?



        Perhaps you should read the article from which the graph came
        I only used the words the biggest because thats what it said, my post #1340. I was speaking of the one set of stats, it says the biggest since 2008. I said it's a small sample. You say it doesn't but here it is. Maybe I miss your point, when you say it doesn't.
        Attached Files
        Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 01-07-2013, 12:05 PM.

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        • I think the graph may be quicker to understand this way.
          Attached Files

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          • Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
            I only used the words the biggest because thats what it said, my post #1340. I was speaking of the one set of stats, it says the biggest since 2008. I said it's a small sample. You say it doesn't but here it is. Maybe I miss your point, when you say it doesn't.
            You realize that that is a different chart than the one that I am referring to?

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            • I read the article and had already seen and read elsewhere that players typically do better at home. I just pointed out that the graph which getting thrown out there as proof of that sucked. Anyway how does this tie in to Yaz having a few monster years then tailing off dramatically for a decade, which I think was the premise of the thread?

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              • Originally posted by PVNICK View Post
                I read the article and had already seen and read elsewhere that players typically do better at home. I just pointed out that the graph which getting thrown out there as proof of that sucked. Anyway how does this tie in to Yaz having a few monster years then tailing off dramatically for a decade, which I think was the premise of the thread?
                http://www.baseball-fever.com/showth...04#post2103704

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                • Guys, the only point here is that you can't just multiply road stats x2 to estimate a guys career numbers since a huge majority of hitters hit better at home than on the road, minus a small group who play in extreme pitcher parks. I am not even sure what some people are arguing about here. Everybody knows Yaz was helped by his park. We are just saying that he was probably somewhat better than just road stats x2. How much better? That is largely speculation, but the trend data can give us some clue.
                  1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

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                  • Originally posted by filihok View Post
                    You realize that that is a different chart than the one that I am referring to?
                    Now I know.

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                    • Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
                      JD respecting your opinion but I see no comparison to Joe Dimaggio at Yankee Stadium and Arod at Yankee Stadium, two different worlds.
                      The same in name only, Yankee Stadium but hugh, much bigger in Joe's time than Arods time. What would Arod have to adapt to, when he played at Yankee Stadium it was like many other parks, not Death Valley. Not a shock he did better at home, home was just another park when he played there.
                      Deep LCf when Joe played there----457----- Arod----399
                      CF--------------------------------461------Arod----408
                      Power alley deep RCF--------------407------Arod----385
                      Who would believe that Arod home run splits would be what they are if he played in th bigger Yankee Stadium, home would suffer, simple math. In fact Joe's first season there, CF was 487 feet.
                      Arod a strong guy but some of those deep home runs to LCF and CF today, some of them would not clear the barrier.
                      I suppose some could now say, well that the way it is, this is where Arod plays.
                      Fine, but don't try to compare Joe's situation at home to Arods, there is no basis, two different parks.
                      Fair enough, Joe. I knew there was a difference, but not that it was that great. Thanks for the data. I see your point, too, about Cro, Hoss, and Milkshake. They could have played in Heiwa Park in Fukuoka Japan and it wouldn't have helped.

                      On the other hand, even further off topic, I've heard, and the splits bear it out, that Paul Waner benefited from the wide open expanses of Forbes Field, and I found that Earl Averill had a huge home advantage despite playing in "Cavernous Municipal Stadium." tOPS+ of 110-90 for Waner, 117-83 for Averill.

                      The Clipper was a line drive hitter, too, just on a bigger scale. You'd think it would have been possible for him, like Mel Ott in reverse, to be a homers guy away and send liners all over that huge outfield at home like Paul Waner on steroids, hitting .380 and slugging .580. (He did have way more triples at home, not many doubles.) It ain't that simple, is it?
                      Indeed the first step toward finding out is to acknowledge you do not satisfactorily know already; so that no blight can so surely arrest all intellectual growth as the blight of cocksureness.--CS Peirce

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                      • Originally posted by PVNICK View Post
                        I read the article and had already seen and read elsewhere that players typically do better at home. I just pointed out that the graph which getting thrown out there as proof of that sucked. Anyway how does this tie in to Yaz having a few monster years then tailing off dramatically for a decade, which I think was the premise of the thread?
                        I hope in his study, Brett compares Yaz's home-road splits before the great fall-off and after. After 1970, Yaz wasn't just a lesser hitter; he was a different kind of hitter. I didn't have the privilege of watching Yaz during his superduperstardom, but when I saw him later, he would definitely swing to go the other way.

                        Now in the SI article, Yaz insists that he's not doing anything differently, just swinging naturally. But that is at the start of his decline.

                        if he did make adjustments so that he could maintain a lower but substantial level of performance, it would be of interest to see if it affected his home-road splits and whether he took a Fenway Leftie swing with him on the road. For me the issues are intertwined, and the abrupt change in performance level provides an experimental design to test them.
                        Indeed the first step toward finding out is to acknowledge you do not satisfactorily know already; so that no blight can so surely arrest all intellectual growth as the blight of cocksureness.--CS Peirce

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                        • Originally posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
                          Fair enough, Joe. I knew there was a difference, but not that it was that great. Thanks for the data. I see your point, too, about Cro, Hoss, and Milkshake. They could have played in Heiwa Park in Fukuoka Japan and it wouldn't have helped.

                          On the other hand, even further off topic, I've heard, and the splits bear it out, that Paul Waner benefited from the wide open expanses of Forbes Field, and I found that Earl Averill had a huge home advantage despite playing in "Cavernous Municipal Stadium." tOPS+ of 110-90 for Waner, 117-83 for Averill.

                          The Clipper was a line drive hitter, too, just on a bigger scale. You'd think it would have been possible for him, like Mel Ott in reverse, to be a homers guy away and send liners all over that huge outfield at home like Paul Waner on steroids, hitting .380 and slugging .580. (He did have way more triples at home, not many doubles.) It ain't that simple, is it?
                          Surprise to me, Paul Waner had only 6 career IPHR's at Forbes Field. Line drive, gap hitter with some speed.

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                          • Originally posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
                            I hope in his study, Brett compares Yaz's home-road splits before the great fall-off and after. After 1970, Yaz wasn't just a lesser hitter; he was a different kind of hitter. I didn't have the privilege of watching Yaz during his superduperstardom, but when I saw him later, he would definitely swing to go the other way.

                            Now in the SI article, Yaz insists that he's not doing anything differently, just swinging naturally. But that is at the start of his decline.

                            if he did make adjustments so that he could maintain a lower but substantial level of performance, it would be of interest to see if it affected his home-road splits and whether he took a Fenway Leftie swing with him on the road. For me the issues are intertwined, and the abrupt change in performance level provides an experimental design to test them.
                            That's actually easy because we have sOPS+ scores for individual seasons (just not career). Park factors do not go into home and road sOPS+ (it is just your home rates and road rates relative to all players in their home parks or on the road).

                            So road sOPS+ for a given season is basically half of the OPS+ equation and you can figure out the other half from a players total OPS+ for the year. For example if a guy has a 150 road sOPS+ and a 160 overall sOPS+ then his home sOPS+ would be 170 (given about the same number of plate appearances, and within a maybe half a percent error due to not hitting in your home park when on the road).

                            In other words road sOPS+ is actually how well you did on the road taking into account a normal road diminishment.

                            So road sOPS+ SHOULD be equal to total sOPS+ if you have "normal" splits (though home sOPS+ will not because a high or low offensive ballpark is actually not factored into sOPS+.)

                            So I will assemble home and road sOPS+ in my next post. Also I might do the same for Boggs and Brett who have interesting splits over the years.

                            Comment


                            • Home and road relativized OPS+. Normal splits would mean equal scores in this case.

                              Yaz
                              Year: Home/Road
                              1961: 114/68
                              1962: 140/100
                              1963:118/178
                              1964: 109/139
                              1965: 177/135
                              1966: 137/101
                              1967: 187/199
                              1968: 144/198
                              1969: 134/138
                              1970: 181/173
                              Mean*: 144/143

                              1971: 108/118
                              1972: 125/111
                              1973: 127/151
                              1974: 138/142
                              1975: 107/117
                              1976: 138/102
                              1977: 135/115
                              1978: 97/127
                              1979: 125/91
                              1980: 90/142
                              1981: 119/73
                              1982: 114/108
                              1983: 96/116
                              Mean 117/116

                              Total 130.5/129.5

                              That's a little odd, but it is more accurate that my prior calculations because I guessed at what the ballpark effect would be on slugging and on-base percentage.

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                              • Looking at a "traditional" stat (batting average):

                                In his last 10 seasons, Yaz at Fenway outhit Yaz elsewhere by 65 points or more in 1976, 1977, 1979, 1981, and 1982.

                                He hit 10 to 46 points better at Fenway in 1974, 1975, and 1978.

                                He hit better on the road (by 15 to 31 points) in 1980 and 1983
                                Last edited by westsidegrounds; 01-07-2013, 04:16 PM. Reason: 10 is tidier than 11

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