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  • Brett home and road relativized OPS+
    '74 102/80
    '75 147/103
    '76 165/123
    '77 148/136
    '78 156/92
    '79 168/128
    '80 196/210
    '81 153/137
    '82 111/171
    '83 144/172
    '84 134/108
    '85 191/167
    '86 148/128
    '87 111/151
    '88 130/168
    '89 104/142
    '90 124/182
    '91 86/116
    '92 86/118
    '93 82/106

    Up through 1979: 148 to 110 (the running and line drive years)
    From 1980 on: 129 to 148 (more of a fly ball hitter and more home runs).

    Overall: 135 to 137. Brett's first 6 years were helped a lot by the astroturf, and it probably helped get him established as an all star earlier, but when he switched to driving the ball more around '80 he did better on the road. A road relative OPS+ of 148 from 1980 through 1993 including 113 in his last 3 years, it is plausible that he could have DHed longer in a smaller park.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by brett View Post
      So Boggs did not really "adjust" to other home parks, he just benefitted particularly from Boston. Furthermore Boggs' road adjusted OPS+'s would only suggest a true 121 OPS+ batter. This is a big reason why I drop Boggs in my overall ranking in war. With a 121 OPS+ he would actually lose about 132 batting runs above average (13 war) and drop to about 75 total war. He did particularly benefit from Boston.
      Total Zone seems to overestimating his defense compared to other systems too.I def. have Brett over Boggs.
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      Comment


      • Originally posted by brett View Post
        Boggs home and road relativized BP adjusted OPS+
        REMEMBER that the values would be equal if the player hit as well on the road as at home on a relative basis

        Bos
        '82 135/121
        '83 164/136
        '83 137/113
        '85 172/130
        '86 149/165
        '87 186/162
        '88 178/158
        '89 165/119
        '90 153/91
        '91 171/109
        '92 90/102
        NY
        '93 104/104
        '94 145/139
        '95 110/86
        '96 97/99
        '97 84/120
        TB
        '98 75/113
        '99 86/90

        Boggs in boston years: 155 at home to 128 on the road!
        Boggs in other years: 100 at home to 107 on the road!

        So Boggs did not really "adjust" to other home parks, he just benefitted particularly from Boston. Furthermore Boggs' road adjusted OPS+'s would only suggest a true 121 OPS+ batter. This is a big reason why I drop Boggs in my overall ranking in war. With a 121 OPS+ he would actually lose about 132 batting runs above average (13 war) and drop to about 75 total war. He did particularly benefit from Boston.
        Why are we making this so complicated.
        Boggs could not adjust, could not hit as well in his other home parks because they were not equal to Fenway as a hitters park.
        How much adjusting can a hitter make.

        What happened to another LH one time Bosox player, Fred Lynn.

        Lynn's batting average splits with Boston 1975-1980. Left out 1974, only 43 at bats
        ----------------H--------A
        1975----------.368-----.294
        1976----------.360-----.272
        1977----------.313-----.215
        1978----------.312-----.283
        1979----------.386-----.276
        1980----------.345-----.270 To say the gap is astounding, an understatement

        Lynn with Cal. 1981-1985
        ----------------H--------A
        1981---------.272-----.168------------------only 255 ab that season
        1982---------.291-----.308
        1983---------.274-----.271
        1984---------.240-----.278
        1985---------.272-----.255

        Did Lynn like Boggs, supposedly fail to adjust after he left Boston'

        Your putting too much into the adjusting Brett, it's simple, hitters love Fenwaw, maybe a good batter's eye CF, the small foul territory, one of the shortest home plate to backstop distances, only 54 feet, the big wall right behind third base..

        Never did I say Yaz was bad on the road, never did I say he reaped more benefits than any other batters Fenway, be they Bosox or opponents. The point is, he lived there, his whole career, more opportunities to boost his career stats and he did.
        Great player but if I was asked compare him to another from his era and would I factor in his home park, yes I would just as we do other hitters and pitchers.

        Maybe not that far away Brett, but we part ways on how much did Yaz benefit from playing his career at Fenway.
        Maybe we're both off, maybe it's some where in between my take and yours.
        Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 01-08-2013, 11:20 AM.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
          Why are we making this so complicated.
          Boggs could not adjust, could not hit as well in his other home parks because they were not equal to Fenway as a hitters park.
          How much adjusting can a hitter make.

          What happened to another LH one time Bosox player, Fred Lynn.

          Lynn's batting average splits with Boston 1975-1980. Left out 1974, only 43 at bats
          ----------------H--------A
          1975----------.368-----.294
          1976----------.360-----.272
          1977----------.313-----.215
          1978----------.312-----.283
          1979----------.386-----.276
          1980----------.345-----.270 To say the gap is astounding, an understatement

          Lynn with Cal. 1981-1985
          ----------------H--------A
          1981---------.272-----.168------------------only 255 ab that season
          1982---------.291-----.308
          1983---------.274-----.271
          1984---------.240-----.278
          1985---------.272-----.255

          Did Lynn like Boggs, supposedly fail to adjust after he left Boston'

          Your putting too much into the adjusting Brett, it's simple, hitters love Fenwaw, maybe a good batter's eye CF, the small foul territory, one of the shortest home plate to backstop distances, only 54 feet, the big wall right behind third base..

          Never did I say Yaz was bad on the road, never did I say he reaped more benefits than any other batters Fenway, be they Bosox or opponents. The point is, he lived there, his whole career, more opportunities to boost his career stats and he did.
          Great player but if I was asked compare him to another from his era and would I factor in his home park, yes I would just as we do other hitters and pitchers.

          Maybe not that far away Brett, but we part ways on how much did Yaz benefit from playing his career at Fenway.
          Maybe we're both off, maybe it's some where in between my take and yours.
          This brings up an interesting question: would Lynn have been a HOFer if he had played his whole career in Boston? As it was, his career was structured in a pretty similar fashion to Yaz: great first part, with a couple of outstanding seasons, and then merely 'good' but consistent for the second part. Of course he was hurt more, and did not have as many great seasons, but I think he definitely may have had a few more 'great' seasons if he never left fenway.

          Comment


          • Yaz away from Fenway 1976-1980:

            .246 BA
            10 HR/YR

            Comment


            • Originally posted by westsidegrounds View Post
              Yaz away from Fenway 1976-1980:

              .246 BA
              10 HR/YR
              Your point

              During that time Yaz' road hitting stats were about 14% better than the league average hitter's road stats (by OPS+)

              Comment


              • Originally posted by willshad View Post
                This brings up an interesting question: would Lynn have been a HOFer if he had played his whole career in Boston? As it was, his career was structured in a pretty similar fashion to Yaz: great first part, with a couple of outstanding seasons, and then merely 'good' but consistent for the second part. Of course he was hurt more, and did not have as many great seasons, but I think he definitely may have had a few more 'great' seasons if he never left fenway.
                Haywood Sullivan took over after Tom Yawkey passed away and was not willing to be too free with the bucks like Tom was.
                Traded Fred for Joe Rudi best years behind him and Frank Tanana, put in only one season with the Bosox.
                Fred said he never wanted to leave Boston............" Why would I want to go anywhere else when I ws hitting .350 lifetime here."

                HOF if he stayed in Boston, who can say, could he maintain that level of play or close to it over a creer.
                Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 01-08-2013, 01:37 PM.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by filihok View Post
                  Your point

                  During that time Yaz' road hitting stats were about 14% better than the league average hitter's road stats (by OPS+)
                  No point at all. Just throwing some more "traditional" stats out there. As I noted previously, Yaz had a number of years when he hit 65 points (or more) higher at Fenway than on the road. This would seem significant to someone raised on "traditional" stats (like me) but perhaps it is not.

                  14% better doesn't sound bad ... any idea how it compares to "typical" HOFers in their late 30s?
                  Last edited by westsidegrounds; 01-08-2013, 02:09 PM.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by westsidegrounds View Post
                    No point at all. Just throwing some more "traditional" stats out there. As I noted previously, Yaz had a number of years when he hit 65 points (or more) higher at Fenway than on the road. This would seem significant to someone raised on "traditional" stats (like me) but perhaps it is not.
                    I've posted a chart a few times in this thread that shows that the majority of hitters hit better at home than on the road, some quite significantly so. I won't post it again because people are probably sick of looking at it.



                    14% better doesn't sound bad ... any idea how it compares to "typical" HOFers in their late 30s?
                    Nope. That'd be a lot of manual labor for me to figure out. You're welcome to it though.

                    Baseball-Reference.com

                    Comment


                    • If you go back over the years though, you'll find numerous (maybe innumerable) posts to the effect that "Player X wasn't as good as Player Y because he was helped so much by his home ballpark(s)".

                      Most players hit better at home. Fine. But let's imagine two players:

                      A hits 32 HR at home and 7 on the road.

                      B hits 24 HR at home and 18 on the road.

                      There appears to be a significant difference here - but is there? If so, what is it? How can or should this difference be quantified? Can we say that one of these players is "better" than the other? That one's HR hitting is more impressive? That one is more valuable? And if so, by how much?

                      (Obviously, one of these has a higher HR total than the other. What I'm asking about is the significance - if any - of the home/road difference, as applied to evaluating player performance and/or value.)
                      Last edited by westsidegrounds; 01-08-2013, 02:58 PM.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
                        Why are we making this so complicated.
                        Boggs could not adjust, could not hit as well in his other home parks because they were not equal to Fenway as a hitters park.
                        How much adjusting can a hitter make.
                        Because I am looking at "relative" hitting rates. Everyone hit much better at Fenway but Boggs didn't just match the park effects, he exceeded them tremendously at home, so what I am saying is that he "particularly benefitted" from Fenway not just in absolute numbers.

                        yaz' rates were boosted by Fenway but only by the same proportion that the average hitter benefitted from Fenway and their home field edge.

                        The average player at Fenway with home field adjustment had about a 17% higher on base percentage and a 21% higher slugging percentage than on the road.

                        Yaz had about a 14% higher on base percentage and 21% higher slugging percentage at home.
                        Last edited by brett; 01-08-2013, 04:01 PM.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by westsidegrounds View Post
                          If you go back over the years though, you'll find numerous (maybe innumerable) posts to the effect that "Player X wasn't as good as Player Y because he was helped so much by his home ballpark(s)".

                          Most players hit better at home. Fine. But let's imagine two players:

                          A hits 32 HR at home and 7 on the road.

                          B hits 24 HR at home and 18 on the road.

                          There appears to be a significant difference here - but is there? If so, what is it? How can or should this difference be quantified? Can we say that one of these players is "better" than the other? That one's HR hitting is more impressive? That one is more valuable? And if so, by how much?

                          (Obviously, one of these has a higher HR total than the other. What I'm asking about is the significance - if any - of the home/road difference, as applied to evaluating player performance and/or value.)
                          Don't know if we can say one is better than the other. But if the park the player has hit better in, high average, home run frequency had shown a history, a pattern for years then I have to factor that in evaluating, ranking or comparing that player to others. That is hitting at home to an extreme compared to the road.
                          To say hitting better at home is common, not dealing with what were discussing, We're speakong of hugh gaps in home road splits.
                          Fenway park not alone but one look at a great number of Bosox hitters and it's obvious a good number have benefitted, built in advantage, they look like two different hitters home and away.

                          I don't know what changed recently, that was the consensus at one time . Now we see all kinds of math attempting to tell us, don't believe what you see.
                          To say a hitter hits better in a certain park but so do others, so does the league, so really not that much of a gain for thjat hitter, nonsense. When you live there almost half of your career at bats gives you more chances to hit better.
                          Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 01-08-2013, 04:08 PM.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by westsidegrounds View Post
                            If you go back over the years though, you'll find numerous (maybe innumerable) posts to the effect that "Player X wasn't as good as Player Y because he was helped so much by his home ballpark(s)". . . .

                            . . . . . What I'm asking about is the significance - if any - of the home/road difference, as applied to evaluating player performance and/or value.)
                            Here's what I've noticed:

                            Those who place heavy weight on home-road splits tend to use straight-up stats like triple crown and slash line.

                            Those who don't as much tend to rely on relativized stats like OPS+, WAR, tOPS+, WRC+.

                            This is just an impression but it's a very strong one. Does anybody here use tOPS+ regularly to show that certain players are overestimated because of their home parks?

                            Another impression I get is that this advantage gets far more play than it amounts to. Without using relative stats, it's impossible to see how many OPS+ points are removed these hitters' park factors, or how much WAR is decreased. Playing in a high-run environment means you have to score a lot more runs
                            just to stay in the same place. So a hitter with identical slash line stats would be a serious liability at home.

                            The fact that home-road splits bounce around a lot also passes without comment.

                            Finally, it seems to me that some players are singled out, while others get a pass. For example, Yaz and Tris Speaker have identical home/road tOPS+ splits, but I haven't noticed repeated threads claiming his doubles record is bogus because of the short fence in right. (Apparently seasonal tOPS+ only goes back to 1916, so his 116-85 home advantage reflects his Cleveland years only.)

                            We don't have posts about day-night splits, or first-second half splits, or even much about platoon splits, all of which can be as pronounced as home-road splits. No one even feels sorry for Fergie Jenkins, laboring start after start in Wrigley Field under the sun, with nary a night game to boost his ERA+.

                            All of which leads me to believe that the amount of fuss devoted to this issue is out of proportion to its distorting role (if any) in the best evaluations of players. I think it is more often a case of partisanship, or, say, a quest for justice, rather than a refinement of offensive production.

                            This may be stereotyping, but I would guess the typical unskewer would be a Joe DiMaggio fan who does not like WAR but does like triple crown stats. At any rate, I think the flame is fueled more by feeling than by any cold, steely-eyed quest for objective truth, where the ratio of work to text is much higher. Of course I'm a partisan too.
                            Indeed the first step toward finding out is to acknowledge you do not satisfactorily know already; so that no blight can so surely arrest all intellectual growth as the blight of cocksureness.--CS Peirce

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
                              Here's what I've noticed:

                              Those who place heavy weight on home-road splits tend to use straight-up stats like triple crown and slash line.

                              Those who don't as much tend to rely on relativized stats like OPS+, WAR, tOPS+, WRC+.

                              This is just an impression but it's a very strong one. Does anybody here use tOPS+ regularly to show that certain players are overestimated because of their home parks?

                              Another impression I get is that this advantage gets far more play than it amounts to. Without using relative stats, it's impossible to see how many OPS+ points are removed these hitters' park factors, or how much WAR is decreased. Playing in a high-run environment means you have to score a lot more runs
                              just to stay in the same place. So a hitter with identical slash line stats would be a serious liability at home.

                              The fact that home-road splits bounce around a lot also passes without comment.Finally, it seems to me that some players are singled out, while others get a pass. For example, Yaz and Tris Speaker have identical home/road tOPS+ splits, but I haven't noticed repeated threads claiming his doubles record is bogus because of the short fence in right. (Apparently seasonal tOPS+ only goes back to 1916, so his 116-85 home advantage reflects his Cleveland years only.)

                              We don't have posts about day-night splits, or first-second half splits, or even much about platoon splits, all of which can be as pronounced as home-road splits. No one even feels sorry for Fergie Jenkins, laboring start after start in Wrigley Field under the sun, with nary a night game to boost his ERA+.

                              All of which leads me to believe that the amount of fuss devoted to this issue is out of proportion to its distorting role (if any) in the best evaluations of players. I think it is more often a case of partisanship, or, say, a quest for justice, rather than a refinement of offensive production.

                              This may be stereotyping, but I would guess the typical unskewer would be a Joe DiMaggio fan who does not like WAR but does like triple crown stats. At any rate, I think the flame is fueled more by feeling than by any cold, steely-eyed quest for objective truth, where the ratio of work to text is much higher. Of course I'm a partisan too.
                              Not sure what you mean by bounce around, do you mean changes over the years in home /away stats for some home parks.
                              In this case Fenway has been a very good hittters park when it comes to home/away for decades. No doubt good park to hit in for most, many.
                              Tris Speaker did benefit with the doubles. The Indians and Red Sox are near the top in team double going back 60 to 70 years. Home parks a factor.

                              Speaker's 3 years with Bosox 1912-1915 most doubles both leagues, Boston 918. Sure Tris did have something to do with that.
                              Tris with Cleveland 1916-1926, Indians most doubles 3850.

                              I'm not tossing out OPS+ but when I compare two hitters and park factor is the subject, I'm not putting that much into how they compared to the league. I'm looking more at, just home/away how they did in their park and on the road. If I see a consistent extreme, hugh gap home away to me thats significant in judging the player.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by brett View Post
                                Because I am looking at "relative" hitting rates. Everyone hit much better at Fenway but Boggs didn't just match the park effects, he exceeded them tremendously at home, so what I am saying is that he "particularly benefitted" from Fenway not just in absolute numbers.

                                yaz' rates were boosted by Fenway but only by the same proportion that the average hitter benefitted from Fenway and their home field edge.

                                The average player at Fenway with home field adjustment had about a 17% higher on base percentage and a 21% higher slugging percentage than on the road.

                                Yaz had about a 14% higher on base percentage and 21% higher slugging percentage at home.
                                But what point are you trying to make? Not every hitter got to play at Fenway for half their games, so obviously Yaz had an advantage over them, whether he benefited from Fenway more than they did or not.

                                Comment

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