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Carl Yastrzemski's odd career

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  • brett
    replied
    Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
    And what may be more extreme for Yaz is calculated already in wOBA, OPS+, WAR, what-have-you. Maybe not perfectly, but pretty well.
    Using Yaz' road rates of .264/.357/.422 and an average park factor of 107, and normal home road split data I get expected home rates for him in Boston to be:

    .292/.395/.468 compared to the actual .306/.402/.503

    Or another way to look at it is that his road rates predict an overall OPS+ about 4-5% lower than he actually produced. (Or that his road relative OPS+ was 124-125 relative to all players on the road.

    but we can't be sure that he didn't sacrifice some of his road stats to taylor his approach to his park, just that his relative home advantage is greater than average. As we've seen with many Colorado players, when they go somewhere else, their home rates drop but their road rates come up some.
    Last edited by brett; 01-06-2013, 01:54 PM.

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    IMO, Yaz was probably the 6th or 7th best Red Sox position player that year.
    Per WAR
    Lynn 7.3
    Tiant 5.1 - pitcher
    Evans 4.6
    Lee 4.4 - pitcher
    Wise 3.6 - pitcher
    Fisk 3.2
    Rice 3.1
    Yaz 3.1
    Carbo 3.1

    And we know that WAR is extremely accurate, but not perfect


    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...-war-good-for/
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]118358[/ATTACH]
    Attached Files

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  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    Originally posted by TomBodet View Post
    Yaz was my fave and always will be. He kept having real good first halves and poopoo seconds-check out '74, 75, 78, 79, 82 and '83 for more. He was the Captain and Mr Clutch to the media and fans from whenI started to follow in '75, don't recall anyone expecting him to be '67 Yaz during that time.
    In the fall of 1975, I was a senior in high school (and the team's two year varsity baseball captain). My english teacher that year was from Boston. He was also my my freshman baseball coach (one of the best coaches I ever had) and he also coached me my 16 year old year in Colt League where I made all stars.


    He told us before Game 7 of the WS Yaz would go 4x4 and carry the Sox to the World Championship. It was almost as if he was brainwashed and in a trance. IMO, Yaz was probably the 6th or 7th best Red Sox position player that year.
    Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 01-06-2013, 01:13 PM.

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  • TomBodet
    replied
    Yaz was my fave and always will be. He kept having real good first halves and poopoo seconds-check out '74, 75, 78, 79, 82 and '83 for more. He was the Captain and Mr Clutch to the media and fans from whenI started to follow in '75, don't recall anyone expecting him to be '67 Yaz during that time.

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    you can't say he agrees Fenway inflates offense and ALSO accept as legitimate the response "all players have better home stats"
    ???

    Why can you not say that?

    Fenway inflates offense.

    AND

    MOST players hit worse on the road than they do at home.

    These are both facts.

    fancy graphs which are almost meaningless
    LOL

    It's the exact same thing as your chart showing home and road stats, just on a bigger scale.

    Amazing...
    Last edited by filihok; 01-06-2013, 12:13 PM.

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    then what was the purpose [BLAH BLAH] of this post which started this foolish exchange:


    As this graph shows. The majority of players perform better at home than on the road.



    But, that DOES NOT MEAN that a player's road stats are the truer indicator of his actual talent.

    Another, equally valid, way to say that is that the majority of players perform worse on the road than at home.


    Stats like wRC+ and OPS+ adjust for the stadiums that a player plays in. Players' wRC+ and OPS+ generally remain consistant when switching between home parks. This is an indication that the adjustments are accurate.
    Which I, admittedly, made better in this attempt than in my original attempt.

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  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
    Roy- he acknowledged that Fenway is a big hitter's park. Nobody has denied that. What everybody is saying is that you cannot just look at a player or teams' road stats and extrapolate them x2 since most players in neutral (and many even in pitchers parks) hit somewhat better at home anyway (as shown very clearly by the chart). People are just saying that it isn't a zero-sum situation. That is all anybody is saying. Nobody has said (if my memory serves me) that Yaz's numbers should be taken at face value.
    then what was the purpose other than being chippy of this post which started this foolish exchange:


    This is true of almost every player (that they are better at home than on the road)

    .... Fenway players are MUCH more likely to show LARGER home road splits making the response practically worthless

    you can't say he agrees Fenway inflates offense and ALSO accept as legitimate the response "all players have better home stats"

    and of course most posters know my feeling about contrived made up formulations used to support an argument especially with fancy graphs which are almost meaningless
    Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 01-06-2013, 11:59 AM.

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  • filihok
    replied
    Yes. Some parks, such as Fenway and Coors, inflate offense. This is true.



    As this graph shows. The majority of players perform better at home than on the road.

    wOBAsplit.png

    But, that DOES NOT MEAN that a player's road stats are the truer indicator of his actual talent.

    Another, equally valid, way to say that is that the majority of players perform worse on the road than at home.


    Stats like wRC+ and OPS+ adjust for the stadiums that a player plays in. Players' wRC+ and OPS+ generally remain consistant when switching between home parks. This is an indication that the adjustments are accurate.
    Last edited by filihok; 01-06-2013, 11:35 AM.

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  • Bothrops Atrox
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    you must be new here because the red sox home inflation has been posted in a zillion threads

    it is all here do some quick research especially in the history thread

    example Fred Lynn 1979
    home .386 28 HR 86 RBI
    road .276 11 HR 39 RBI

    example Jim Rice 1978
    home .361 28 HR 75 RBI
    road .269 18 HR 64 RBI

    these are very famous seasons and similar splits have been posted ad nauseum
    Roy- he acknowledged that Fenway is a big hitter's park. Nobody has denied that. What everybody is saying is that you cannot just look at a player or teams' road stats and extrapolate them x2 since most players in neutral (and many even in pitchers parks) hit somewhat better at home anyway (as shown very clearly by the chart). People are just saying that it isn't a zero-sum situation. That is all anybody is saying. Nobody has said (if my memory serves me) that Yaz's numbers should be taken at face value.

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    you must be new here because the red sox home inflation has been posted in a zillion threads
    What the hell are you talking about?


    Originally posted by filihok View Post

    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    fenway Park inflates offense
    This is all true.

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  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    you must be new here because the red sox home inflation has been posted in a zillion threads

    it is all here do some quick research especially in the history thread

    example Fred Lynn 1979
    home .386 28 HR 86 RBI
    road .276 11 HR 39 RBI

    example Jim Rice 1978
    home .361 28 HR 75 RBI
    road .269 18 HR 64 RBI

    these are very famous seasons and similar splits have been posted ad nauseum
    Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 01-06-2013, 11:15 AM.

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    if your argument is Holiday proves Coors does not inflate offense we have nothing else to discuss
    It's not. If you are going to argue points that I'm not making there is no reason for further discussion.

    Originally posted by Roy
    if your argument is Bichette is an exception rather than the rule we have nothing further to discuss
    I said nothing of the sort. I said that he didn't have a statistically relevant number of PA's in Anaheim.
    If you expect me to accept your argument that Bichette is the rule without providing any evidence that he is then there is no reason for further discussion.

    For the record, Bichette had a career 104 wRC+. Means he was about a league average hitter. Sound about right?

    Originally posted by Roy
    if your argument is Yaz is an excepton rather than the rule then we have nothing further to discuss
    If your argument is that Yaz is the rule then you should provide evidence of such, otherwise we have nothing further to discuss.

    Originally posted by Roy
    if your argument is Fenway does not inflate offense we have nothing further to discuss
    It's not.
    Originally posted by filihok
    Originally posted by Roy
    fenway Park inflates offense
    This is all true.
    If you can't follow a simple conversation, then there is no reason to further this discussion.

    Originally posted by Roy
    I see all the above seem to be your argument
    If you can't follow a simple conversation, then there is no reason to further this discussion. NONE of the above are my argument.
    Last edited by filihok; 01-06-2013, 11:11 AM.

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  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    if your argument is Holiday proves Coors does not inflate offense we have nothing else to discuss

    if your argument is Bichette is an exception rather than the rule we have nothing further to discuss

    if your argument is Yaz is an excepton rather than the rule then we have nothing further to discuss

    if your argument is Fenway does not inflate offense we have nothing further to discuss

    I see all the above seem to be your argument

    we have nothing further to discuss

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    cherry picking one player is not the best argument
    Says the guy citing Bichette and Yaz.

    Bichette had like 500 PA's as an Angel. Hardly a relevant sample size.


    Here's every player from the last 5 years. A much better sample size than 1, right?

    [ATTACH=CONFIG]118349[/ATTACH]
    What conclusions can we draw?


    and for every Matt Holliday there are 5 Dante Bichette's (see his Angels record vs his Coors record) who show how Coors truly inflates offense
    Citation needed.


    fenway Park inflates offense

    it is almost universal

    Yaz spent his entire career in Fenway

    his stats are inflated
    This is all true.

    His stats are inflated. They are also adjusted by stats like OPS+ and the superior wCR+

    this is best evidenced by his road stats
    Citation needed.

    this is also why Red Sox teams seemed so much better than they actually were
    Wouldn't the reverse be true for run prevention? Evening things out?
    Attached Files
    Last edited by filihok; 01-06-2013, 10:55 AM.

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  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    and for every Matt Holliday there are 5 Dante Bichette's (see his Angels record vs his Coors record) who show how Coors truly inflates offense

    cherry picking one player is not the best argument

    fenway Park inflates offense

    it is almost universal

    Yaz spent his entire career in Fenway

    his stats are inflated

    this is best evidenced by his road stats

    simple

    this is also why Red Sox teams seemed so much better than they actually were and why they went 86 years (or longer if you dis-allow PED infested teams) without a championship
    Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 01-06-2013, 10:46 AM.

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