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Carl Yastrzemski's odd career

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  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
    Roy- he acknowledged that Fenway is a big hitter's park. Nobody has denied that. What everybody is saying is that you cannot just look at a player or teams' road stats and extrapolate them x2 since most players in neutral (and many even in pitchers parks) hit somewhat better at home anyway (as shown very clearly by the chart). People are just saying that it isn't a zero-sum situation. That is all anybody is saying. Nobody has said (if my memory serves me) that Yaz's numbers should be taken at face value.
    then what was the purpose other than being chippy of this post which started this foolish exchange:


    This is true of almost every player (that they are better at home than on the road)

    .... Fenway players are MUCH more likely to show LARGER home road splits making the response practically worthless

    you can't say he agrees Fenway inflates offense and ALSO accept as legitimate the response "all players have better home stats"

    and of course most posters know my feeling about contrived made up formulations used to support an argument especially with fancy graphs which are almost meaningless
    Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 01-06-2013, 11:59 AM.

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  • filihok
    replied
    Yes. Some parks, such as Fenway and Coors, inflate offense. This is true.



    As this graph shows. The majority of players perform better at home than on the road.

    wOBAsplit.png

    But, that DOES NOT MEAN that a player's road stats are the truer indicator of his actual talent.

    Another, equally valid, way to say that is that the majority of players perform worse on the road than at home.


    Stats like wRC+ and OPS+ adjust for the stadiums that a player plays in. Players' wRC+ and OPS+ generally remain consistant when switching between home parks. This is an indication that the adjustments are accurate.
    Last edited by filihok; 01-06-2013, 11:35 AM.

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  • Bothrops Atrox
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    you must be new here because the red sox home inflation has been posted in a zillion threads

    it is all here do some quick research especially in the history thread

    example Fred Lynn 1979
    home .386 28 HR 86 RBI
    road .276 11 HR 39 RBI

    example Jim Rice 1978
    home .361 28 HR 75 RBI
    road .269 18 HR 64 RBI

    these are very famous seasons and similar splits have been posted ad nauseum
    Roy- he acknowledged that Fenway is a big hitter's park. Nobody has denied that. What everybody is saying is that you cannot just look at a player or teams' road stats and extrapolate them x2 since most players in neutral (and many even in pitchers parks) hit somewhat better at home anyway (as shown very clearly by the chart). People are just saying that it isn't a zero-sum situation. That is all anybody is saying. Nobody has said (if my memory serves me) that Yaz's numbers should be taken at face value.

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    you must be new here because the red sox home inflation has been posted in a zillion threads
    What the hell are you talking about?


    Originally posted by filihok View Post

    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    fenway Park inflates offense
    This is all true.

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  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    you must be new here because the red sox home inflation has been posted in a zillion threads

    it is all here do some quick research especially in the history thread

    example Fred Lynn 1979
    home .386 28 HR 86 RBI
    road .276 11 HR 39 RBI

    example Jim Rice 1978
    home .361 28 HR 75 RBI
    road .269 18 HR 64 RBI

    these are very famous seasons and similar splits have been posted ad nauseum
    Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 01-06-2013, 11:15 AM.

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    if your argument is Holiday proves Coors does not inflate offense we have nothing else to discuss
    It's not. If you are going to argue points that I'm not making there is no reason for further discussion.

    Originally posted by Roy
    if your argument is Bichette is an exception rather than the rule we have nothing further to discuss
    I said nothing of the sort. I said that he didn't have a statistically relevant number of PA's in Anaheim.
    If you expect me to accept your argument that Bichette is the rule without providing any evidence that he is then there is no reason for further discussion.

    For the record, Bichette had a career 104 wRC+. Means he was about a league average hitter. Sound about right?

    Originally posted by Roy
    if your argument is Yaz is an excepton rather than the rule then we have nothing further to discuss
    If your argument is that Yaz is the rule then you should provide evidence of such, otherwise we have nothing further to discuss.

    Originally posted by Roy
    if your argument is Fenway does not inflate offense we have nothing further to discuss
    It's not.
    Originally posted by filihok
    Originally posted by Roy
    fenway Park inflates offense
    This is all true.
    If you can't follow a simple conversation, then there is no reason to further this discussion.

    Originally posted by Roy
    I see all the above seem to be your argument
    If you can't follow a simple conversation, then there is no reason to further this discussion. NONE of the above are my argument.
    Last edited by filihok; 01-06-2013, 11:11 AM.

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  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    if your argument is Holiday proves Coors does not inflate offense we have nothing else to discuss

    if your argument is Bichette is an exception rather than the rule we have nothing further to discuss

    if your argument is Yaz is an excepton rather than the rule then we have nothing further to discuss

    if your argument is Fenway does not inflate offense we have nothing further to discuss

    I see all the above seem to be your argument

    we have nothing further to discuss

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    cherry picking one player is not the best argument
    Says the guy citing Bichette and Yaz.

    Bichette had like 500 PA's as an Angel. Hardly a relevant sample size.


    Here's every player from the last 5 years. A much better sample size than 1, right?

    [ATTACH=CONFIG]118349[/ATTACH]
    What conclusions can we draw?


    and for every Matt Holliday there are 5 Dante Bichette's (see his Angels record vs his Coors record) who show how Coors truly inflates offense
    Citation needed.


    fenway Park inflates offense

    it is almost universal

    Yaz spent his entire career in Fenway

    his stats are inflated
    This is all true.

    His stats are inflated. They are also adjusted by stats like OPS+ and the superior wCR+

    this is best evidenced by his road stats
    Citation needed.

    this is also why Red Sox teams seemed so much better than they actually were
    Wouldn't the reverse be true for run prevention? Evening things out?
    Attached Files
    Last edited by filihok; 01-06-2013, 10:55 AM.

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  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    and for every Matt Holliday there are 5 Dante Bichette's (see his Angels record vs his Coors record) who show how Coors truly inflates offense

    cherry picking one player is not the best argument

    fenway Park inflates offense

    it is almost universal

    Yaz spent his entire career in Fenway

    his stats are inflated

    this is best evidenced by his road stats

    simple

    this is also why Red Sox teams seemed so much better than they actually were and why they went 86 years (or longer if you dis-allow PED infested teams) without a championship
    Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 01-06-2013, 10:46 AM.

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
    Again, I don't see many who say that park effects should be ignored. the issue is always, how well can they quantified and to what degree do they affect the individual player being assessed. It is a muti-faceted issue. Of course Yaz benefited from his park, as do the Giant pitchers, and so on. How much is the key issue. wOBA, OPS+, WAR, etc. all take their best stabs at it, and I would imagine they get it close to right a majority of the time.
    This best sums it up.

    Let's take a player like Matt Holliday.
    From 2004 to 2008 Holliday hit in Coor's field. Coor's field is a very well-known 'hitter's paradise'.
    Holliday 2004-2008 Home: .423/.625 (OBP/SLG), .450 wOBA, 156 wRC+, 1353 PA's, 84 HR, 307 RBI
    Holliday 2004-2008 Away: .348/.455 (OBP/SLG), .348 wOBA, 108 wRC+, 1303 PA's, 44 HR, 176 RBI
    Holliday 2004-2008 TOTAL: .386/.552 (OBP/SLG), .400 wOBA, 133 wRC+, 2698 PA's, 128 HR, 483 RBI

    Totally different player at home and on the road, right?

    Holliday moved out of Coor's in 2009. If he is solely a product of Coor's Field then we'd expect his numbers from 2009 through 2012 to look more like his 2004-2008 away numbers. Is that what we observe?

    Holliday 2009-2012 TOTAL: .388/.517 (OBP/SLG), .390 wOBA, 146 wRC+, 2549 PA, 101 HR, 389 RBI.

    Nope. Not what we observe at all. His overall numbers from 2004-2008 and 2009-2012 are quite similar (.390 wOBA compared to .400 wOBA. There has been a league-wide reduction in offense, especially power so the SLG% are different). Per wRC+ he's actually better over all after leaving Coor's field (146 to 133).

    This is the point that I'm trying to make. I don't speak for everyone, or anyone, else. League & park adjusted numbers do a good job of taking the differences in stadiums into consideration. There's no need to say that so-and-so is a the hitter that he is on the road. The evidence, disproves that.

    What does that mean for Yaz? His counting numbers HR's, R'sBI, etc may be inflated from playing in Fenway, but we can still accurately measure his true offensive output. His true output ISN'T just what he hit on the road.

    *Stats from FanGraphs

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  • Bothrops Atrox
    replied
    Again, I don't see many who say that park effects should be ignored. the issue is always, how well can they quantified and to what degree do they affect the individual player being assessed. It is a muti-faceted issue. Of course Yaz benefited from his park, as do the Giant pitchers, and so on. How much is the key issue. wOBA, OPS+, WAR, etc. all take their best stabs at it, and I would imagine they get it close to right a majority of the time.

    Leave a comment:


  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    I have not continually called them the best staff in baseball but if Lincecum reverts to form watch out

    however, I am glad you recognize the legitimacy of park illusions and they are very prevalent in evaluating Red Sox hitters, like Yaz

    Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
    Park illusions also overrate the Giants pitchers. 3.09 ERA at home. 4.29 on the road. Yet you continually call them the best pitching staff in baseball. Can't have it both ways, Roy.
    Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 01-06-2013, 09:44 AM.

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  • TonyK
    replied
    Haven't recent changes to Fenway Park negated a lot of the hitter's advantages?

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  • GiambiJuice
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    so the Colorado Rockies are clearly the best hitters in baseball because of gaudy stats created by a huge park illusion?
    Park illusions also overrate the Giants pitchers. 3.09 ERA at home. 4.29 on the road. Yet you continually call them the best pitching staff in baseball. Can't have it both ways, Roy.
    Last edited by GiambiJuice; 01-06-2013, 08:57 AM.

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  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    Originally posted by lizmcl View Post
    As one who clearly remembers the Kasko-Johnson Era Red Sox, the perceptions of Yaz shifted widely over that period. The team was riddled by dissension in 1971, and many in the press fingered Yastrzemski and his close friend Reggie Smith as the ringleaders: Billy Conigliaro accused them of conspiring to get his brother traded the previous fall, and these charges ripped the team apart in mid-season. This brought back all the "Yaz got Pesky fired, Yaz got Harrelson traded" stories of previous years. Yaz had a poor year in 1972, as well, and was ripped by rookie Carlton Fisk for not providing clubhouse leadership -- whichdidn't help his image with the fans. He was also dealing with injuries during this period, which kept his performance below the levels we'd gotten used to in 1967-70. There was a lot of talk that he should be traded while he still had value.

    It wasn't until the 1975 playoffs that people really began to respect Yaz again -- he singlehandedly destroyed Oakland in that series, or at least that was how it looked to us at the time, and from then to the end of his career we respected him as a gutsy veteran who we were lucky to have on the team. He wasn't flashy like Lynn or Rice or Tiant, but after 1975 we thought of him as the heart of the club.
    Yaz hit .455 in that short series, 3 other Red Sox hit over .400
    Yaz had 2 RBI's in that series, 3 other Red Sox had 2 RBIs and one had 3 RBIs
    The Red Sox had 31 hits in the 3 games, of which Yaz had 5
    Red Sox pitchers had a 1.67 ERA in the three games

    while he certainly played well it seems a little bit of a stretch to say he "single-handedly" destroyed Oakland

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