Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Carl Yastrzemski's odd career

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • brett
    replied
    Originally posted by ipitch View Post
    Or easier, since the pitchers would be subject to those conditions.
    That is true (except to a degree for injury rehab if you happened to be someone who had a major injury like Bonds in '99).

    I want to stress that I mentioned the high strike NOT because Bonds was not a good high strike hitter, but Bonds really transformed into a low ball slugger around 2000. Bonds was an excellent high ball hitter in the '90s. He was hard to K. He did not have a flaw as a hitter at least given the parks of his time. Through '98 he already had 99.6 WAR in a league with steroid users, and 289 IBBs in fewer than 1900 games, just 4 short of Aaron's "record" that took almost 3300 games.

    Leave a comment:


  • Calif_Eagle
    replied
    Originally posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
    Fair enough, Joe. I knew there was a difference, but not that it was that great. Thanks for the data. I see your point, too, about Cro, Hoss, and Milkshake. They could have played in Heiwa Park in Fukuoka Japan and it wouldn't have helped.

    On the other hand, even further off topic, I've heard, and the splits bear it out, that Paul Waner benefited from the wide open expanses of Forbes Field, and I found that Earl Averill had a huge home advantage despite playing in "Cavernous Municipal Stadium." tOPS+ of 110-90 for Waner, 117-83 for Averill.

    The Clipper was a line drive hitter, too, just on a bigger scale. You'd think it would have been possible for him, like Mel Ott in reverse, to be a homers guy away and send liners all over that huge outfield at home like Paul Waner on steroids, hitting .380 and slugging .580. (He did have way more triples at home, not many doubles.) It ain't that simple, is it?
    Quote of Post 145.

    I'm not sure anyone noticed or even cares but Earl Averill's primary home park for his 10 year run in Cleveland's outfield was not Municipal Stadium but was League Park, which was tailor made for a left handed hitter.

    Leave a comment:


  • ipitch
    replied
    Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Certainly the high strike is something to consider. Along with train travel, no night games, sweltering heat, double headers, exhibiton games during the season, injury prevention and recovery knowledge, etc etc....many factors would make it harder.
    Or easier, partly because the pitchers would be subject to those conditions.

    Untitled.jpg
    Last edited by ipitch; 08-23-2016, 01:18 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • GiambiJuice
    replied
    Originally posted by BigRon View Post
    Of course, this eliminates all players before 1961/1962. To be fair to the earlier players it would be interesting to list those who played in 149 or 150 games.
    If I knew how I would run a report of players who played 96.9% of their teams games.

    Leave a comment:


  • BigRon
    replied
    Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
    Most seasons with 157+ games played and 170 OPS+

    Willie Mays 3
    Carl Yastrzemski 3
    Barry Bonds 3
    Albert Pujols 3
    Of course, this eliminates all players before 1961/1962. To be fair to the earlier players it would be interesting to list those who played in 149 or 150 games.

    Leave a comment:


  • Sultan_1895-1948
    replied
    Originally posted by pheasant View Post
    Wow, that's unreal that you put Bonds #2. You've gone from a player-perspective guy to a stat-head. That's pretty impressive. You've gotten much more objective during the past couple of years. Bonds was a major league jerk. And I get why a GM would drop him 2-3 spots on the all-time draft. But his talent was undeniable.

    And I'm a huge 9-10 year peak guy too.

    What post did you list Bonds as #2? I want to see your statistical projections.
    In our top 100 list thread I have him #2.

    I would have to do a search but I posted a chart of his mortal decline numbers. There's still a gap between Ruth and him (no it's not just the pitching that puts him ahead folks) but at the end of the day you're left with a power/speed beast who would have thrived in the field in his twilight years imo. The question for me was Bonds or Cobb. That was a tough hurdle but I feel ok with it.

    I'm not 100% stat or traditional. Just a mix.

    I should clarify. The ranking at #2 is a not taking PED numbers entirely at face value, but it's also not ignoring them completely. Its complicated.
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 08-23-2016, 11:05 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • GiambiJuice
    replied
    Most seasons with 157+ games played and 170 OPS+

    Willie Mays 3
    Carl Yastrzemski 3
    Barry Bonds 3
    Albert Pujols 3

    Leave a comment:


  • Sultan_1895-1948
    replied
    Originally posted by brett View Post
    It is a little complicated. He probably would have had double the PAs against lefties, around 1/3 of his total PAs. On the other hand, he may have adapted better, like many modern left handed batters have due to seeing more lefties. Also remember that he had to face the high strike which makes the left on left matchup even tougher.

    The high strike would have hurt Bonds a lot IMO.
    Certainly the high strike is something to consider. Along with train travel, no night games, sweltering heat, double headers, exhibiton games during the season, injury prevention and recovery knowledge, etc etc....many factors would make it harder.

    Leave a comment:


  • pheasant
    replied
    Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Yikes! Playing in all parks equally, Piazza already gains 7 points up to 149. So along with platoon neutral considerations he goes up 14 points to 154. From there I would give him 5% catching (split focus/wear and tear) boost, 3% relief specialist, and 3% league funnel approach boost. So he ends up at 171. I think we really need to do that for modern guys.

    Curiousal, Sultan. about guys like FRobby, Mays, and JoeD.

    On a side note, did you notice I have Bonds ranked #2 all-time? That is based on clean Bonds and projected natural decline. Growing up it was all Griffey all the time. Bonds was sort of an afterthought. Its only in recent years that I've really grown to appreciate the all around talent he was. His first few years weren't special but I'm a big 7 and 5 year peak guy..his run was historic after a slow start.
    Wow, that's unreal that you put Bonds #2. You've gone from a player-perspective guy to a stat-head. That's pretty impressive. You've gotten much more objective during the past couple of years. Bonds was a major league jerk. And I get why a GM would drop him 2-3 spots on the all-time draft. But his talent was undeniable.

    And I'm a huge 9-10 year peak guy too.

    What post did you list Bonds as #2? I want to see your statistical projections.

    Leave a comment:


  • brett
    replied
    Originally posted by pheasant View Post
    This is a fascinating chart. Williams's homerun frequency dropped by about 40% whereas his strikeout rate increased 50%. That 70 tOPS+ is quite telling. Move him the Bonds' era and he likely gets another 500 AB against nasty lefty relievers and his tOPS+ likely worsens.

    For stats compiled on Lou Gehrig so far, he is at a 91 tOPS+ against lefties with over 1400 PA. Ruth is at a 98 in over 600 PA. Granted, that is a bunch of missing data for Ruth. But Gehrig's split Has a large sample size and it appears fairly typical for a lefty.

    If anything, I appreciate righties more now than ever before.
    It is a little complicated. He probably would have had double the PAs against lefties, around 1/3 of his total PAs. On the other hand, he may have adapted better, like many modern left handed batters have due to seeing more lefties. Also remember that he had to face the high strike which makes the left on left matchup even tougher.

    The high strike would have hurt Bonds a lot IMO. Edit: It would have kept him from dominating after 2000 as much, but he was a good high ball hitter in the 90s.
    Last edited by brett; 08-23-2016, 10:12 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Sultan_1895-1948
    replied
    Originally posted by pheasant View Post
    You have analyzed handedness more than anybody that I've seen.

    If Piazza simply had a 50/50 split and kept his rate stats above, his career line would have been .313/.387/.560, which yields an OPS+ of 149, a massive 7 point jump. Of course, lefties would take a hit.

    It is interesting how managers platooned the heck out of clean-Bonds once he became a superstar in 1990.

    In 1990 he had 344 PA vs righties and 277 PA vs lefties. His line vs lefties was .304/.386/.592
    In 1991, he had 239 PA vs lefties with a line of .284/.385/.473
    In 1992, arguably his best year(the year before expansion), he had a whopping 283 PA vs lefties wtih a line of .311/.445/.599
    In 1993, he had 260 PA vs lefties and put up a line of .326/.423/.619
    In 1994, 140 PA vs lefties with a line of .291/.400/.607
    In 1995, PA vs lefties with a line of .268/.388/.478
    In 1996, 176 PA vs lefties with a line of .307/.398/.593
    In 1997, 211 PA vs lefties with a line of .295/.427/.584
    In 1998, 214 PA vs lefties with a line of .280/.418/.494

    Just eye-balling that, it looks like Bonds batted nearly .300 and slugged around .560 against lefties, despite facing monster relievers. I believe Floyd showed the Williams batted around .316 and slugged .500 vs lefties for his career, despite not facing fresh relievers throwing 97-100 mph.

    I agree that Piazza should move up the list of hitters, as should clean-Bonds. Pujols will likely look like a monster, a guy that I already have as the greatest righty-hitter ever.
    Yikes! Playing in all parks equally, Piazza already gains 7 points up to 149. So along with platoon neutral considerations he goes up 14 points to 154. From there I would give him 5% catching (split focus/wear and tear) boost, 3% relief specialist, and 3% league funnel approach boost. So he ends up at 171. I think we really need to do that for modern guys.

    Curious about guys like FRobby, Mays, and JoeD.

    On a side note, did you notice I have Bonds ranked #2 all-time? That is based on clean Bonds and projected natural decline. Growing up it was all Griffey all the time. Bonds was sort of an afterthought. Its only in recent years that I've really grown to appreciate the all around talent he was. His first few years weren't special but I'm a big 7 and 5 year peak guy..his run was historic after a slow start.
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 08-23-2016, 09:23 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • pheasant
    replied
    Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    As far as I'm aware, nobody except myself has been preaching the significance of platoon affect on here. When you see guys like Piazza getting roughly 70% of their PA versus the same hand, it really impacts numbers.

    Let's look at Piazza.

    5953 PA vs RHP - .303/.368/.534
    1792 PA vs LHP - .323/.405/.585

    So...it would be interesting to see his line platoon neutral, as if he got 3872 PA vs each hand.

    If I were more statistically inclined, I'd come up with a way to have their numbers reflect 50/50...something like platoon neutral OPS+. Even those who constantly poo poo the idea we should look further, can't deny that it would simply give deeper perspective. Especially when coupled with rrOPS+
    You have analyzed handedness more than anybody that I've seen.

    If Piazza simply had a 50/50 split and kept his rate stats above, his career line would have been .313/.387/.560, which yields an OPS+ of 149, a massive 7 point jump. Of course, lefties would take a hit.

    It is interesting how managers platooned the heck out of clean-Bonds once he became a superstar in 1990.

    In 1990 he had 344 PA vs righties and 277 PA vs lefties. His line vs lefties was .304/.386/.592
    In 1991, he had 239 PA vs lefties with a line of .284/.385/.473
    In 1992, arguably his best year(the year before expansion), he had a whopping 283 PA vs lefties wtih a line of .311/.445/.599
    In 1993, he had 260 PA vs lefties and put up a line of .326/.423/.619
    In 1994, 140 PA vs lefties with a line of .291/.400/.607
    In 1995, PA vs lefties with a line of .268/.388/.478
    In 1996, 176 PA vs lefties with a line of .307/.398/.593
    In 1997, 211 PA vs lefties with a line of .295/.427/.584
    In 1998, 214 PA vs lefties with a line of .280/.418/.494

    Just eye-balling that, it looks like Bonds batted nearly .300 and slugged around .560 against lefties, despite facing monster relievers. I believe Floyd showed the Williams batted around .316 and slugged .500 vs lefties for his career, despite not facing fresh relievers throwing 97-100 mph.

    I agree that Piazza should move up the list of hitters, as should clean-Bonds. Pujols will likely look like a monster, a guy that I already have as the greatest righty-hitter ever.

    Leave a comment:


  • Sultan_1895-1948
    replied
    Originally posted by pheasant View Post

    If anything, I appreciate righties more now than ever before.
    As far as I'm aware, nobody except myself has been preaching the significance of platoon affect on here. When you see guys like Piazza getting roughly 70% of their PA versus the same hand, it really impacts numbers.

    Let's look at Piazza.

    5953 PA vs RHP - .303/.368/.534
    1792 PA vs LHP - .323/.405/.585

    So...it would be interesting to see his line platoon neutral, as if he got 3872 PA vs each hand.

    If I were more statistically inclined, I'd come up with a way to have their numbers reflect 50/50...something like platoon neutral OPS+. Even those who constantly poo poo the idea we should look further, can't deny that it would simply give deeper perspective. Especially when coupled with rrOPS+
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 08-23-2016, 07:43 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Floyd Gondolli
    replied
    Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Think of the steroid era where a pitcher cannot let up one second. Even with nobody on base and facing the #8 hitter they are throwing 95mph. That #8 hitter along with the majority of the lineup was getting meatballs (comparatively speaking) back in Ruth's day, while they saved the gas for him. THAT'S the gap I'm speaking of, where he actual OPS+ would be higher.
    Sultan is correct here. Except it didn't end when the Steroid Era ended (has it ended?). I watched Scherzer no hit the Mets in person last year...a bad throw from third on a routine play away from a perfect game. He was throwing 98 to the #8 hitter and the pitcher.

    Feller said nobody learns pacing anymore. They don't have to, starting 32 games and throwing 195 innings. "18 outs" is the meme in clubhouses among starters.

    Just as Kaline said nobody practices long toss so long outfield throws are comparatively poor, and people don't bother hitting the cutoff man properly. With outfields 25% smaller and base runners taking far fewer risks, perhaps outfielders don't have to practice or actualize the "fundamentals".

    There are a bevy of component baseball skills that have atrophied en masse due to kids only playing baseball during little league games, instead of sandlot type ball all summer. I've seen play get progressively sloppier in its finer elements..... despite drastically bigger faster and stronger players filling all the rosters today.

    Leave a comment:


  • pheasant
    replied
    Originally posted by Floyd Gondolli View Post
    Yaz could not hit left handed pitching. Today, that would be much more of a liability than it was in his career, or any era prior.

    Worst relative career OPS scores vs. left handed pitching.

    [ATTACH]156865[/ATTACH]

    Notice Ted Williams at #9. And how few PA he had versus lefties vs. his career PA. More on that later.
    This is a fascinating chart. Williams's homerun frequency dropped by about 40% whereas his strikeout rate increased 50%. That 70 tOPS+ is quite telling. Move him the Bonds' era and he likely gets another 500 AB against nasty lefty relievers and his tOPS+ likely worsens.

    For stats compiled on Lou Gehrig so far, he is at a 91 tOPS+ against lefties with over 1400 PA. Ruth is at a 98 in over 600 PA. Granted, that is a bunch of missing data for Ruth. But Gehrig's split Has a large sample size and it appears fairly typical for a lefty.

    If anything, I appreciate righties more now than ever before.

    Leave a comment:

Ad Widget

Collapse
Working...
X