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  • #61
    I have not continually called them the best staff in baseball but if Lincecum reverts to form watch out

    however, I am glad you recognize the legitimacy of park illusions and they are very prevalent in evaluating Red Sox hitters, like Yaz

    Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
    Park illusions also overrate the Giants pitchers. 3.09 ERA at home. 4.29 on the road. Yet you continually call them the best pitching staff in baseball. Can't have it both ways, Roy.
    Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 01-06-2013, 09:44 AM.
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
    3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

    Comment


    • #62
      Again, I don't see many who say that park effects should be ignored. the issue is always, how well can they quantified and to what degree do they affect the individual player being assessed. It is a muti-faceted issue. Of course Yaz benefited from his park, as do the Giant pitchers, and so on. How much is the key issue. wOBA, OPS+, WAR, etc. all take their best stabs at it, and I would imagine they get it close to right a majority of the time.
      1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

      1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

      1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


      The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
      The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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      • #63
        Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
        Again, I don't see many who say that park effects should be ignored. the issue is always, how well can they quantified and to what degree do they affect the individual player being assessed. It is a muti-faceted issue. Of course Yaz benefited from his park, as do the Giant pitchers, and so on. How much is the key issue. wOBA, OPS+, WAR, etc. all take their best stabs at it, and I would imagine they get it close to right a majority of the time.
        This best sums it up.

        Let's take a player like Matt Holliday.
        From 2004 to 2008 Holliday hit in Coor's field. Coor's field is a very well-known 'hitter's paradise'.
        Holliday 2004-2008 Home: .423/.625 (OBP/SLG), .450 wOBA, 156 wRC+, 1353 PA's, 84 HR, 307 RBI
        Holliday 2004-2008 Away: .348/.455 (OBP/SLG), .348 wOBA, 108 wRC+, 1303 PA's, 44 HR, 176 RBI
        Holliday 2004-2008 TOTAL: .386/.552 (OBP/SLG), .400 wOBA, 133 wRC+, 2698 PA's, 128 HR, 483 RBI

        Totally different player at home and on the road, right?

        Holliday moved out of Coor's in 2009. If he is solely a product of Coor's Field then we'd expect his numbers from 2009 through 2012 to look more like his 2004-2008 away numbers. Is that what we observe?

        Holliday 2009-2012 TOTAL: .388/.517 (OBP/SLG), .390 wOBA, 146 wRC+, 2549 PA, 101 HR, 389 RBI.

        Nope. Not what we observe at all. His overall numbers from 2004-2008 and 2009-2012 are quite similar (.390 wOBA compared to .400 wOBA. There has been a league-wide reduction in offense, especially power so the SLG% are different). Per wRC+ he's actually better over all after leaving Coor's field (146 to 133).

        This is the point that I'm trying to make. I don't speak for everyone, or anyone, else. League & park adjusted numbers do a good job of taking the differences in stadiums into consideration. There's no need to say that so-and-so is a the hitter that he is on the road. The evidence, disproves that.

        What does that mean for Yaz? His counting numbers HR's, R'sBI, etc may be inflated from playing in Fenway, but we can still accurately measure his true offensive output. His true output ISN'T just what he hit on the road.

        *Stats from FanGraphs

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        • #64
          and for every Matt Holliday there are 5 Dante Bichette's (see his Angels record vs his Coors record) who show how Coors truly inflates offense

          cherry picking one player is not the best argument

          fenway Park inflates offense

          it is almost universal

          Yaz spent his entire career in Fenway

          his stats are inflated

          this is best evidenced by his road stats

          simple

          this is also why Red Sox teams seemed so much better than they actually were and why they went 86 years (or longer if you dis-allow PED infested teams) without a championship
          Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 01-06-2013, 10:46 AM.
          1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
          2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
          3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

          Comment


          • #65
            Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
            cherry picking one player is not the best argument
            Says the guy citing Bichette and Yaz.

            Bichette had like 500 PA's as an Angel. Hardly a relevant sample size.


            Here's every player from the last 5 years. A much better sample size than 1, right?

            [ATTACH=CONFIG]118349[/ATTACH]
            What conclusions can we draw?


            and for every Matt Holliday there are 5 Dante Bichette's (see his Angels record vs his Coors record) who show how Coors truly inflates offense
            Citation needed.


            fenway Park inflates offense

            it is almost universal

            Yaz spent his entire career in Fenway

            his stats are inflated
            This is all true.

            His stats are inflated. They are also adjusted by stats like OPS+ and the superior wCR+

            this is best evidenced by his road stats
            Citation needed.

            this is also why Red Sox teams seemed so much better than they actually were
            Wouldn't the reverse be true for run prevention? Evening things out?
            Attached Files
            Last edited by filihok; 01-06-2013, 10:55 AM.

            Comment


            • #66
              if your argument is Holiday proves Coors does not inflate offense we have nothing else to discuss

              if your argument is Bichette is an exception rather than the rule we have nothing further to discuss

              if your argument is Yaz is an excepton rather than the rule then we have nothing further to discuss

              if your argument is Fenway does not inflate offense we have nothing further to discuss

              I see all the above seem to be your argument

              we have nothing further to discuss
              1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
              2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
              3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
                if your argument is Holiday proves Coors does not inflate offense we have nothing else to discuss
                It's not. If you are going to argue points that I'm not making there is no reason for further discussion.

                Originally posted by Roy
                if your argument is Bichette is an exception rather than the rule we have nothing further to discuss
                I said nothing of the sort. I said that he didn't have a statistically relevant number of PA's in Anaheim.
                If you expect me to accept your argument that Bichette is the rule without providing any evidence that he is then there is no reason for further discussion.

                For the record, Bichette had a career 104 wRC+. Means he was about a league average hitter. Sound about right?

                Originally posted by Roy
                if your argument is Yaz is an excepton rather than the rule then we have nothing further to discuss
                If your argument is that Yaz is the rule then you should provide evidence of such, otherwise we have nothing further to discuss.

                Originally posted by Roy
                if your argument is Fenway does not inflate offense we have nothing further to discuss
                It's not.
                Originally posted by filihok
                Originally posted by Roy
                fenway Park inflates offense
                This is all true.
                If you can't follow a simple conversation, then there is no reason to further this discussion.

                Originally posted by Roy
                I see all the above seem to be your argument
                If you can't follow a simple conversation, then there is no reason to further this discussion. NONE of the above are my argument.
                Last edited by filihok; 01-06-2013, 11:11 AM.

                Comment


                • #68
                  you must be new here because the red sox home inflation has been posted in a zillion threads

                  it is all here do some quick research especially in the history thread

                  example Fred Lynn 1979
                  home .386 28 HR 86 RBI
                  road .276 11 HR 39 RBI

                  example Jim Rice 1978
                  home .361 28 HR 75 RBI
                  road .269 18 HR 64 RBI

                  these are very famous seasons and similar splits have been posted ad nauseum
                  Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 01-06-2013, 11:15 AM.
                  1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
                  2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
                  3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
                    you must be new here because the red sox home inflation has been posted in a zillion threads
                    What the hell are you talking about?


                    Originally posted by filihok View Post

                    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
                    fenway Park inflates offense
                    This is all true.

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
                      you must be new here because the red sox home inflation has been posted in a zillion threads

                      it is all here do some quick research especially in the history thread

                      example Fred Lynn 1979
                      home .386 28 HR 86 RBI
                      road .276 11 HR 39 RBI

                      example Jim Rice 1978
                      home .361 28 HR 75 RBI
                      road .269 18 HR 64 RBI

                      these are very famous seasons and similar splits have been posted ad nauseum
                      Roy- he acknowledged that Fenway is a big hitter's park. Nobody has denied that. What everybody is saying is that you cannot just look at a player or teams' road stats and extrapolate them x2 since most players in neutral (and many even in pitchers parks) hit somewhat better at home anyway (as shown very clearly by the chart). People are just saying that it isn't a zero-sum situation. That is all anybody is saying. Nobody has said (if my memory serves me) that Yaz's numbers should be taken at face value.
                      1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                      1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                      1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                      The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                      The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Yes. Some parks, such as Fenway and Coors, inflate offense. This is true.



                        As this graph shows. The majority of players perform better at home than on the road.

                        wOBAsplit.png

                        But, that DOES NOT MEAN that a player's road stats are the truer indicator of his actual talent.

                        Another, equally valid, way to say that is that the majority of players perform worse on the road than at home.


                        Stats like wRC+ and OPS+ adjust for the stadiums that a player plays in. Players' wRC+ and OPS+ generally remain consistant when switching between home parks. This is an indication that the adjustments are accurate.
                        Last edited by filihok; 01-06-2013, 11:35 AM.

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
                          Roy- he acknowledged that Fenway is a big hitter's park. Nobody has denied that. What everybody is saying is that you cannot just look at a player or teams' road stats and extrapolate them x2 since most players in neutral (and many even in pitchers parks) hit somewhat better at home anyway (as shown very clearly by the chart). People are just saying that it isn't a zero-sum situation. That is all anybody is saying. Nobody has said (if my memory serves me) that Yaz's numbers should be taken at face value.
                          then what was the purpose other than being chippy of this post which started this foolish exchange:


                          This is true of almost every player (that they are better at home than on the road)

                          .... Fenway players are MUCH more likely to show LARGER home road splits making the response practically worthless

                          you can't say he agrees Fenway inflates offense and ALSO accept as legitimate the response "all players have better home stats"

                          and of course most posters know my feeling about contrived made up formulations used to support an argument especially with fancy graphs which are almost meaningless
                          Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 01-06-2013, 11:59 AM.
                          1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
                          2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
                          3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
                            then what was the purpose [BLAH BLAH] of this post which started this foolish exchange:


                            As this graph shows. The majority of players perform better at home than on the road.



                            But, that DOES NOT MEAN that a player's road stats are the truer indicator of his actual talent.

                            Another, equally valid, way to say that is that the majority of players perform worse on the road than at home.


                            Stats like wRC+ and OPS+ adjust for the stadiums that a player plays in. Players' wRC+ and OPS+ generally remain consistant when switching between home parks. This is an indication that the adjustments are accurate.
                            Which I, admittedly, made better in this attempt than in my original attempt.

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
                              you can't say he agrees Fenway inflates offense and ALSO accept as legitimate the response "all players have better home stats"
                              ???

                              Why can you not say that?

                              Fenway inflates offense.

                              AND

                              MOST players hit worse on the road than they do at home.

                              These are both facts.

                              fancy graphs which are almost meaningless
                              LOL

                              It's the exact same thing as your chart showing home and road stats, just on a bigger scale.

                              Amazing...
                              Last edited by filihok; 01-06-2013, 12:13 PM.

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Yaz was my fave and always will be. He kept having real good first halves and poopoo seconds-check out '74, 75, 78, 79, 82 and '83 for more. He was the Captain and Mr Clutch to the media and fans from whenI started to follow in '75, don't recall anyone expecting him to be '67 Yaz during that time.

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