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Carl Yastrzemski's odd career

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  • willshad
    replied
    I think that the career path of Yaz was more or less typical, in the way that he declined in his 30s. I am more interested in a guy who suddenly got BETTER in his 30s, and without the help of steroids. For example, Dolph Camilli. Up until age 29 he had a career 98 OPS+, and then from age 29-35 he had a 7 year run during which he averaged a 152 OPS+. A modern day example of this would be Jose Bautista.

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  • SHOELESSJOE3
    replied
    I'm sure most are aware of this. No matter which side we come down on Yaz and just how much we think he benefited by having Fenway for a home. Left out was the small home plate to backstop distance, another hitter's plus.

    Bottom line, Fenway was made for hitters. That one stat is amazing and very telling about Fenway, that only twice did a Bosox pitcher lead the league in lowest batting average. And it took one of the greatest, most dominating to did it, Roger Clemens. I did bring up the great batters eye earlier, the hittting backdrop, often overlooked.

    I should add Fenway is probably not as great as a hitting park in recent year with all the new parks. But the players we,ve been discussing go back 30- 40 years ago and more.
    Attached Files

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
    Sandoval is only one player, we could probably find more like that.
    The higher the number, the less likely it's coincidence.
    Precisely.

    This is what adjusted stats to.

    They measure EVERY player. EVERY game. EVERY plate appearance.

    And guess what, there's still some things that are coincidence.

    But it's a hell of a lot better than just picking out a few players.




    When you add them all up, they are a plus to the batter.
    Yes. We are aware that Fenway helps hitters

    And here's our best attempt to quantify how much it helps
    http://www.statcorner.com/team2.php?team=111&year=2012
    fenway.jpg

    Broken down by batter handedness: walks, K's, HR's, singles

    Leave a comment:


  • SHOELESSJOE3
    replied
    Originally posted by filihok View Post
    It actually could be a coincidence.
    Look at these home/away splits
    Home: 1113 PA's, .328 AVG, .376 OBP, .524 SLG, .900 OPS, .381 wOBA
    Away: 1185 PA's, .278 AVG, .332 OBP, .450 SLG, .791 OPS, .339 wOBA

    What hitter friendly park does Pablo Sandoval play in?


    Because I was responding to a poster who was talking about why the Yankees had so many more titles than the Red Sox.


    Absolutely we should consider the effect on home park when looking at players' performances. Obviously someone hitting .300/.400/.500 in Coors field in 2000 is different than someone hitting .300/.400/.500 in San Diego.

    But much better than looking at a players' away numbers and saying 'this is how good he was' is too look at adjusted numbers like wRC+ (the best) or OPS+ (not as good).
    Sandoval is only one player, we could probably find more like that.
    The higher the number, the less likely it's coincidence.
    There are a number of big name Bosox players on that list and 6 of them have some significant gaps in home and away stats.
    And Again, I'm sure if we search we can find some Bosox with not so big gaps.
    I didn't put the label on Fenway, it's been known a a hitters park long before this board, before some of us were born.

    It has it all, the wall, odd configuation RF to RCF look at the split doubles for some LF Bosox hitters hugh, not much foul territory down the lines and super short distance home plate to the back stop 54 feet.
    When you add them all up, they are a plus to the batter.

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
    It looks to me like there may have been a thread, discussion on the board about hitting in some parks and a poster wanted to make a point of hitting in Fenway. Maybe that not sure. But I think it's obvious, some of the big name Bosox players did hit very good at Fenway, as compared to on the road. Those are some high numbered splits, a couple in the area of 50+, a 60. Can't be coincidence, great hitters park.
    It actually could be a coincidence.
    Look at these home/away splits
    Home: 1113 PA's, .328 AVG, .376 OBP, .524 SLG, .900 OPS, .381 wOBA
    Away: 1185 PA's, .278 AVG, .332 OBP, .450 SLG, .791 OPS, .339 wOBA

    What hitter friendly park does Pablo Sandoval play in?

    I don't see how that figures in here, but it keeps popping up. Yes it's probably a good hitters park for visitors.
    Because I was responding to a poster who was talking about why the Yankees had so many more titles than the Red Sox.

    Point is, one more time if you live there your going to have more plate appearance there, hundreds or thousands more than any "individual" opposing hitter. Again, we're judging individual players, career. Not comparing how the home player compares to the league, to other teams , visitors batting there, in those years.
    If I'm comparing Yaz or Lynn to another player who obviously played in a park not as favorable, Yaz and Lynn, they had a more favorable hitting condition at home.
    Whats the story with Yaz untouchable, over the years posters trying to diminish, Hornsby, Sisler and some others because of the parks they played in and Hornsby for one---- Home .361--.439--.593-------Away .358--.431--.565. Whats the big deal with Hornsby's splits. He probably played in a couple of good hitting parks but hit for almost the same stats away.
    Absolutely we should consider the effect on home park when looking at players' performances. Obviously someone hitting .300/.400/.500 in Coors field in 2000 is different than someone hitting .300/.400/.500 in San Diego.

    But much better than looking at a players' away numbers and saying 'this is how good he was' is too look at adjusted numbers like wRC+ (the best) or OPS+ (not as good).

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  • SHOELESSJOE3
    replied
    Originally posted by filihok View Post
    This is obviously not every player that played for the Yankees and Red Sox between the 40's and the 70's

    Why are only these players on the list?



    There's so much fault in this logic I don't even know where to begin.
    Maybe, hopefully, you're being sarcastic.

    The Yankees have won more WS than the Red Sox because the Yankees have been better.

    Yes, Fenway is a good park for hitters. Remember though, that it's a good park for opposing hitters as well.
    That list was posted on the board some years ago, I didn't pick it.
    I'm sure there were other Bosox players with no a big a gap in home/away splits.

    It looks to me like there may have been a thread, discussion on the board about hitting in some parks and a poster wanted to make a point of hitting in Fenway. Maybe that not sure. But I think it's obvious, some of the big name Bosox players did hit very good at Fenway, as compared to on the road. Those are some high numbered splits, a couple in the area of 50+, a 60. Can't be coincidence, great hitters park.

    I don't see how that figures in here, but it keeps popping up. Yes it's probably a good hitters park for visitors.
    Point is, one more time if you live there your going to have more plate appearance there, hundreds or thousands more than any "individual" opposing hitter. Again, we're judging individual players, career. Not comparing how the home player compares to the league, to other teams , visitors batting there, in those years.
    If I'm comparing Yaz or Lynn to another player who obviously played in a park not as favorable, Yaz and Lynn, they had a more favorable hitting condition at home.
    Whats the story with Yaz untouchable, over the years posters trying to diminish, Hornsby, Sisler and some others because of the parks they played in and Hornsby for one---- Home .361--.439--.593-------Away .358--.431--.565. Whats the big deal with Hornsby's splits. He probably played in a couple of good hitting parks but hit for almost the same stats away.
    Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 01-08-2013, 08:29 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • brett
    replied
    Originally posted by westsidegrounds View Post
    THAT'S IT!!!!!

    That chart shows why the Yanks have won 27 world championships and the Red Sox have won 7.

    Because the Yankees have had players who could hit and contribute value to their team in the 50% of the games that a team has to play away from home, and the Red Sox have specialized in hitters who were creampuffs away from Fenway.
    Well it also indicates that Boston should have had an extra good home field advantage.

    Leave a comment:


  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
    OK, I have seen that in some parks, changes over the years. Not the case with the subject park here, Fenway, consistenly shown to be a good hitters park The list I insert here not a big sample only shows one other park home/away stats, Yankee Stadium. Did not pick that one, had it saved and I use it. You can see the pattern, good number of Bosox hitters hitting so much better at home and the lst covers the 1940's to the 1970s.

    Thats what I call extreme Lynn 88 points higher at home. Did not think it was that high, Doerr +54 and Stepens + 60.
    It's not just the numbers, we could debate what is a really big gap, it's that it's so commonplace with a good number of Bosox hitters.
    Yaz not a gap like some others but clear he benefited by playing a career in a great hitters park
    This is obviously not every player that played for the Yankees and Red Sox between the 40's and the 70's

    Why are only these players on the list?


    Originally posted by westsidegrounds View Post
    THAT'S IT!!!!!

    That chart shows why the Yanks have won 27 world championships and the Red Sox have won 7.

    Because the Yankees have had players who could hit and contribute value to their team in the 50% of the games that a team has to play away from home, and the Red Sox have specialized in hitters who were creampuffs away from Fenway.
    There's so much fault in this logic I don't even know where to begin.
    Maybe, hopefully, you're being sarcastic.

    The Yankees have won more WS than the Red Sox because the Yankees have been better.

    Yes, Fenway is a good park for hitters. Remember though, that it's a good park for opposing hitters as well.

    Leave a comment:


  • westsidegrounds
    replied
    Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
    OK, I have seen that in some parks, changes over the years. Not the case with the subject park here, Fenway, consistenly shown to be a good hitters park The list I insert here not a big sample only shows one other park home/away stats, Yankee Stadium. Did not pick that one, had it saved and I use it. You can see the pattern, good number of Bosox hitters hitting so much better at home and the lst covers the 1940's to the 1970s.

    Thats what I call extreme Lynn 88 points higher at home. Did not think it was that high, Doerr +54 and Stepens + 60.
    It's not just the numbers, we could debate what is a really big gap, it's that it's so commonplace with a good number of Bosox hitters.
    Yaz not a gap like some others but clear he benefited by playing a career in a great hitters park
    THAT'S IT!!!!!

    That chart shows why the Yanks have won 27 world championships and the Red Sox have won 7.

    Because the Yankees have had players who could hit and contribute value to their team in the 50% of the games that a team has to play away from home, and the Red Sox have specialized in hitters who were creampuffs away from Fenway.

    Leave a comment:


  • SHOELESSJOE3
    replied
    Originally posted by filihok View Post
    Bouncing around typically means they are not consistent from one season to the other.
    In one year a player may hit much better at home
    In another year the player may hit much better on the road
    In another year the player may hit about the same on the home and on the road.





    What do you consider extreme?

    Between 2008 and 2012 the AVERAGE hitter had a .014 higher wOBA at home than on the road. That's the difference between how Carlos Santana and Jordan Pacheco hit this year (maybe not the best comp but I'm in a hurry. .014 of wOBA is pretty big)

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...effect-mirage/
    OK, I have seen that in some parks, changes over the years. Not the case with the subject park here, Fenway, consistenly shown to be a good hitters park The list I insert here not a big sample only shows one other park home/away stats, Yankee Stadium. Did not pick that one, had it saved and I use it. You can see the pattern, good number of Bosox hitters hitting so much better at home and the lst covers the 1940's to the 1970s.

    Thats what I call extreme Lynn 88 points higher at home. Did not think it was that high, Doerr +54 and Stepens + 60.
    It's not just the numbers, we could debate what is a really big gap, it's that it's so commonplace with a good number of Bosox hitters.
    Yaz not a gap like some others but clear he benefited by playing a career in a great hitters park
    Attached Files
    Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 01-08-2013, 06:22 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
    Not sure what you mean by bounce around, do you mean changes over the years in home /away stats for some home parks.
    Bouncing around typically means they are not consistent from one season to the other.
    In one year a player may hit much better at home
    In another year the player may hit much better on the road
    In another year the player may hit about the same on the home and on the road.




    I'm not tossing out OPS+ but when I compare two hitters and park factor is the subject, I'm not putting that much into how they compared to the league. I'm looking more at, just home/away how they did in their park and on the road. If I see a consistent extreme, hugh gap home away to me thats significant in judging the player.
    What do you consider extreme?

    Between 2008 and 2012 the AVERAGE hitter had a .014 higher wOBA at home than on the road. That's the difference between how Carlos Santana and Jordan Pacheco hit this year (maybe not the best comp but I'm in a hurry. .014 of wOBA is pretty big)

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...effect-mirage/

    Leave a comment:


  • brett
    replied
    Originally posted by willshad View Post
    But what point are you trying to make? Not every hitter got to play at Fenway for half their games, so obviously Yaz had an advantage over them, whether he benefited from Fenway more than they did or not.
    Stats like OPS+ and war though, that attempt to measure winning are relative stats. Winning is related to relative stats not absolute stats.

    Leave a comment:


  • willshad
    replied
    Originally posted by brett View Post
    Because I am looking at "relative" hitting rates. Everyone hit much better at Fenway but Boggs didn't just match the park effects, he exceeded them tremendously at home, so what I am saying is that he "particularly benefitted" from Fenway not just in absolute numbers.

    yaz' rates were boosted by Fenway but only by the same proportion that the average hitter benefitted from Fenway and their home field edge.

    The average player at Fenway with home field adjustment had about a 17% higher on base percentage and a 21% higher slugging percentage than on the road.

    Yaz had about a 14% higher on base percentage and 21% higher slugging percentage at home.
    But what point are you trying to make? Not every hitter got to play at Fenway for half their games, so obviously Yaz had an advantage over them, whether he benefited from Fenway more than they did or not.

    Leave a comment:


  • SHOELESSJOE3
    replied
    Originally posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
    Here's what I've noticed:

    Those who place heavy weight on home-road splits tend to use straight-up stats like triple crown and slash line.

    Those who don't as much tend to rely on relativized stats like OPS+, WAR, tOPS+, WRC+.

    This is just an impression but it's a very strong one. Does anybody here use tOPS+ regularly to show that certain players are overestimated because of their home parks?

    Another impression I get is that this advantage gets far more play than it amounts to. Without using relative stats, it's impossible to see how many OPS+ points are removed these hitters' park factors, or how much WAR is decreased. Playing in a high-run environment means you have to score a lot more runs
    just to stay in the same place. So a hitter with identical slash line stats would be a serious liability at home.

    The fact that home-road splits bounce around a lot also passes without comment.Finally, it seems to me that some players are singled out, while others get a pass. For example, Yaz and Tris Speaker have identical home/road tOPS+ splits, but I haven't noticed repeated threads claiming his doubles record is bogus because of the short fence in right. (Apparently seasonal tOPS+ only goes back to 1916, so his 116-85 home advantage reflects his Cleveland years only.)

    We don't have posts about day-night splits, or first-second half splits, or even much about platoon splits, all of which can be as pronounced as home-road splits. No one even feels sorry for Fergie Jenkins, laboring start after start in Wrigley Field under the sun, with nary a night game to boost his ERA+.

    All of which leads me to believe that the amount of fuss devoted to this issue is out of proportion to its distorting role (if any) in the best evaluations of players. I think it is more often a case of partisanship, or, say, a quest for justice, rather than a refinement of offensive production.

    This may be stereotyping, but I would guess the typical unskewer would be a Joe DiMaggio fan who does not like WAR but does like triple crown stats. At any rate, I think the flame is fueled more by feeling than by any cold, steely-eyed quest for objective truth, where the ratio of work to text is much higher. Of course I'm a partisan too.
    Not sure what you mean by bounce around, do you mean changes over the years in home /away stats for some home parks.
    In this case Fenway has been a very good hittters park when it comes to home/away for decades. No doubt good park to hit in for most, many.
    Tris Speaker did benefit with the doubles. The Indians and Red Sox are near the top in team double going back 60 to 70 years. Home parks a factor.

    Speaker's 3 years with Bosox 1912-1915 most doubles both leagues, Boston 918. Sure Tris did have something to do with that.
    Tris with Cleveland 1916-1926, Indians most doubles 3850.

    I'm not tossing out OPS+ but when I compare two hitters and park factor is the subject, I'm not putting that much into how they compared to the league. I'm looking more at, just home/away how they did in their park and on the road. If I see a consistent extreme, hugh gap home away to me thats significant in judging the player.

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  • Jackaroo Dave
    replied
    Originally posted by westsidegrounds View Post
    If you go back over the years though, you'll find numerous (maybe innumerable) posts to the effect that "Player X wasn't as good as Player Y because he was helped so much by his home ballpark(s)". . . .

    . . . . . What I'm asking about is the significance - if any - of the home/road difference, as applied to evaluating player performance and/or value.)
    Here's what I've noticed:

    Those who place heavy weight on home-road splits tend to use straight-up stats like triple crown and slash line.

    Those who don't as much tend to rely on relativized stats like OPS+, WAR, tOPS+, WRC+.

    This is just an impression but it's a very strong one. Does anybody here use tOPS+ regularly to show that certain players are overestimated because of their home parks?

    Another impression I get is that this advantage gets far more play than it amounts to. Without using relative stats, it's impossible to see how many OPS+ points are removed these hitters' park factors, or how much WAR is decreased. Playing in a high-run environment means you have to score a lot more runs
    just to stay in the same place. So a hitter with identical slash line stats would be a serious liability at home.

    The fact that home-road splits bounce around a lot also passes without comment.

    Finally, it seems to me that some players are singled out, while others get a pass. For example, Yaz and Tris Speaker have identical home/road tOPS+ splits, but I haven't noticed repeated threads claiming his doubles record is bogus because of the short fence in right. (Apparently seasonal tOPS+ only goes back to 1916, so his 116-85 home advantage reflects his Cleveland years only.)

    We don't have posts about day-night splits, or first-second half splits, or even much about platoon splits, all of which can be as pronounced as home-road splits. No one even feels sorry for Fergie Jenkins, laboring start after start in Wrigley Field under the sun, with nary a night game to boost his ERA+.

    All of which leads me to believe that the amount of fuss devoted to this issue is out of proportion to its distorting role (if any) in the best evaluations of players. I think it is more often a case of partisanship, or, say, a quest for justice, rather than a refinement of offensive production.

    This may be stereotyping, but I would guess the typical unskewer would be a Joe DiMaggio fan who does not like WAR but does like triple crown stats. At any rate, I think the flame is fueled more by feeling than by any cold, steely-eyed quest for objective truth, where the ratio of work to text is much higher. Of course I'm a partisan too.

    Leave a comment:

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