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Carl Yastrzemski's odd career

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  • SHOELESSJOE3
    replied
    Originally posted by westsidegrounds View Post
    If you go back over the years though, you'll find numerous (maybe innumerable) posts to the effect that "Player X wasn't as good as Player Y because he was helped so much by his home ballpark(s)".

    Most players hit better at home. Fine. But let's imagine two players:

    A hits 32 HR at home and 7 on the road.

    B hits 24 HR at home and 18 on the road.

    There appears to be a significant difference here - but is there? If so, what is it? How can or should this difference be quantified? Can we say that one of these players is "better" than the other? That one's HR hitting is more impressive? That one is more valuable? And if so, by how much?

    (Obviously, one of these has a higher HR total than the other. What I'm asking about is the significance - if any - of the home/road difference, as applied to evaluating player performance and/or value.)
    Don't know if we can say one is better than the other. But if the park the player has hit better in, high average, home run frequency had shown a history, a pattern for years then I have to factor that in evaluating, ranking or comparing that player to others. That is hitting at home to an extreme compared to the road.
    To say hitting better at home is common, not dealing with what were discussing, We're speakong of hugh gaps in home road splits.
    Fenway park not alone but one look at a great number of Bosox hitters and it's obvious a good number have benefitted, built in advantage, they look like two different hitters home and away.

    I don't know what changed recently, that was the consensus at one time . Now we see all kinds of math attempting to tell us, don't believe what you see.
    To say a hitter hits better in a certain park but so do others, so does the league, so really not that much of a gain for thjat hitter, nonsense. When you live there almost half of your career at bats gives you more chances to hit better.
    Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 01-08-2013, 04:08 PM.

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  • brett
    replied
    Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
    Why are we making this so complicated.
    Boggs could not adjust, could not hit as well in his other home parks because they were not equal to Fenway as a hitters park.
    How much adjusting can a hitter make.
    Because I am looking at "relative" hitting rates. Everyone hit much better at Fenway but Boggs didn't just match the park effects, he exceeded them tremendously at home, so what I am saying is that he "particularly benefitted" from Fenway not just in absolute numbers.

    yaz' rates were boosted by Fenway but only by the same proportion that the average hitter benefitted from Fenway and their home field edge.

    The average player at Fenway with home field adjustment had about a 17% higher on base percentage and a 21% higher slugging percentage than on the road.

    Yaz had about a 14% higher on base percentage and 21% higher slugging percentage at home.
    Last edited by brett; 01-08-2013, 04:01 PM.

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  • westsidegrounds
    replied
    If you go back over the years though, you'll find numerous (maybe innumerable) posts to the effect that "Player X wasn't as good as Player Y because he was helped so much by his home ballpark(s)".

    Most players hit better at home. Fine. But let's imagine two players:

    A hits 32 HR at home and 7 on the road.

    B hits 24 HR at home and 18 on the road.

    There appears to be a significant difference here - but is there? If so, what is it? How can or should this difference be quantified? Can we say that one of these players is "better" than the other? That one's HR hitting is more impressive? That one is more valuable? And if so, by how much?

    (Obviously, one of these has a higher HR total than the other. What I'm asking about is the significance - if any - of the home/road difference, as applied to evaluating player performance and/or value.)
    Last edited by westsidegrounds; 01-08-2013, 02:58 PM.

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by westsidegrounds View Post
    No point at all. Just throwing some more "traditional" stats out there. As I noted previously, Yaz had a number of years when he hit 65 points (or more) higher at Fenway than on the road. This would seem significant to someone raised on "traditional" stats (like me) but perhaps it is not.
    I've posted a chart a few times in this thread that shows that the majority of hitters hit better at home than on the road, some quite significantly so. I won't post it again because people are probably sick of looking at it.



    14% better doesn't sound bad ... any idea how it compares to "typical" HOFers in their late 30s?
    Nope. That'd be a lot of manual labor for me to figure out. You're welcome to it though.

    Baseball-Reference.com

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  • westsidegrounds
    replied
    Originally posted by filihok View Post
    Your point

    During that time Yaz' road hitting stats were about 14% better than the league average hitter's road stats (by OPS+)
    No point at all. Just throwing some more "traditional" stats out there. As I noted previously, Yaz had a number of years when he hit 65 points (or more) higher at Fenway than on the road. This would seem significant to someone raised on "traditional" stats (like me) but perhaps it is not.

    14% better doesn't sound bad ... any idea how it compares to "typical" HOFers in their late 30s?
    Last edited by westsidegrounds; 01-08-2013, 02:09 PM.

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  • SHOELESSJOE3
    replied
    Originally posted by willshad View Post
    This brings up an interesting question: would Lynn have been a HOFer if he had played his whole career in Boston? As it was, his career was structured in a pretty similar fashion to Yaz: great first part, with a couple of outstanding seasons, and then merely 'good' but consistent for the second part. Of course he was hurt more, and did not have as many great seasons, but I think he definitely may have had a few more 'great' seasons if he never left fenway.
    Haywood Sullivan took over after Tom Yawkey passed away and was not willing to be too free with the bucks like Tom was.
    Traded Fred for Joe Rudi best years behind him and Frank Tanana, put in only one season with the Bosox.
    Fred said he never wanted to leave Boston............" Why would I want to go anywhere else when I ws hitting .350 lifetime here."

    HOF if he stayed in Boston, who can say, could he maintain that level of play or close to it over a creer.
    Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 01-08-2013, 01:37 PM.

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by westsidegrounds View Post
    Yaz away from Fenway 1976-1980:

    .246 BA
    10 HR/YR
    Your point

    During that time Yaz' road hitting stats were about 14% better than the league average hitter's road stats (by OPS+)

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  • westsidegrounds
    replied
    Yaz away from Fenway 1976-1980:

    .246 BA
    10 HR/YR

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  • willshad
    replied
    Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
    Why are we making this so complicated.
    Boggs could not adjust, could not hit as well in his other home parks because they were not equal to Fenway as a hitters park.
    How much adjusting can a hitter make.

    What happened to another LH one time Bosox player, Fred Lynn.

    Lynn's batting average splits with Boston 1975-1980. Left out 1974, only 43 at bats
    ----------------H--------A
    1975----------.368-----.294
    1976----------.360-----.272
    1977----------.313-----.215
    1978----------.312-----.283
    1979----------.386-----.276
    1980----------.345-----.270 To say the gap is astounding, an understatement

    Lynn with Cal. 1981-1985
    ----------------H--------A
    1981---------.272-----.168------------------only 255 ab that season
    1982---------.291-----.308
    1983---------.274-----.271
    1984---------.240-----.278
    1985---------.272-----.255

    Did Lynn like Boggs, supposedly fail to adjust after he left Boston'

    Your putting too much into the adjusting Brett, it's simple, hitters love Fenwaw, maybe a good batter's eye CF, the small foul territory, one of the shortest home plate to backstop distances, only 54 feet, the big wall right behind third base..

    Never did I say Yaz was bad on the road, never did I say he reaped more benefits than any other batters Fenway, be they Bosox or opponents. The point is, he lived there, his whole career, more opportunities to boost his career stats and he did.
    Great player but if I was asked compare him to another from his era and would I factor in his home park, yes I would just as we do other hitters and pitchers.

    Maybe not that far away Brett, but we part ways on how much did Yaz benefit from playing his career at Fenway.
    Maybe we're both off, maybe it's some where in between my take and yours.
    This brings up an interesting question: would Lynn have been a HOFer if he had played his whole career in Boston? As it was, his career was structured in a pretty similar fashion to Yaz: great first part, with a couple of outstanding seasons, and then merely 'good' but consistent for the second part. Of course he was hurt more, and did not have as many great seasons, but I think he definitely may have had a few more 'great' seasons if he never left fenway.

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  • SHOELESSJOE3
    replied
    Originally posted by brett View Post
    Boggs home and road relativized BP adjusted OPS+
    REMEMBER that the values would be equal if the player hit as well on the road as at home on a relative basis

    Bos
    '82 135/121
    '83 164/136
    '83 137/113
    '85 172/130
    '86 149/165
    '87 186/162
    '88 178/158
    '89 165/119
    '90 153/91
    '91 171/109
    '92 90/102
    NY
    '93 104/104
    '94 145/139
    '95 110/86
    '96 97/99
    '97 84/120
    TB
    '98 75/113
    '99 86/90

    Boggs in boston years: 155 at home to 128 on the road!
    Boggs in other years: 100 at home to 107 on the road!

    So Boggs did not really "adjust" to other home parks, he just benefitted particularly from Boston. Furthermore Boggs' road adjusted OPS+'s would only suggest a true 121 OPS+ batter. This is a big reason why I drop Boggs in my overall ranking in war. With a 121 OPS+ he would actually lose about 132 batting runs above average (13 war) and drop to about 75 total war. He did particularly benefit from Boston.
    Why are we making this so complicated.
    Boggs could not adjust, could not hit as well in his other home parks because they were not equal to Fenway as a hitters park.
    How much adjusting can a hitter make.

    What happened to another LH one time Bosox player, Fred Lynn.

    Lynn's batting average splits with Boston 1975-1980. Left out 1974, only 43 at bats
    ----------------H--------A
    1975----------.368-----.294
    1976----------.360-----.272
    1977----------.313-----.215
    1978----------.312-----.283
    1979----------.386-----.276
    1980----------.345-----.270 To say the gap is astounding, an understatement

    Lynn with Cal. 1981-1985
    ----------------H--------A
    1981---------.272-----.168------------------only 255 ab that season
    1982---------.291-----.308
    1983---------.274-----.271
    1984---------.240-----.278
    1985---------.272-----.255

    Did Lynn like Boggs, supposedly fail to adjust after he left Boston'

    Your putting too much into the adjusting Brett, it's simple, hitters love Fenwaw, maybe a good batter's eye CF, the small foul territory, one of the shortest home plate to backstop distances, only 54 feet, the big wall right behind third base..

    Never did I say Yaz was bad on the road, never did I say he reaped more benefits than any other batters Fenway, be they Bosox or opponents. The point is, he lived there, his whole career, more opportunities to boost his career stats and he did.
    Great player but if I was asked compare him to another from his era and would I factor in his home park, yes I would just as we do other hitters and pitchers.

    Maybe not that far away Brett, but we part ways on how much did Yaz benefit from playing his career at Fenway.
    Maybe we're both off, maybe it's some where in between my take and yours.
    Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 01-08-2013, 11:20 AM.

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  • Bothrops Atrox
    replied
    Originally posted by brett View Post
    So Boggs did not really "adjust" to other home parks, he just benefitted particularly from Boston. Furthermore Boggs' road adjusted OPS+'s would only suggest a true 121 OPS+ batter. This is a big reason why I drop Boggs in my overall ranking in war. With a 121 OPS+ he would actually lose about 132 batting runs above average (13 war) and drop to about 75 total war. He did particularly benefit from Boston.
    Total Zone seems to overestimating his defense compared to other systems too.I def. have Brett over Boggs.

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  • brett
    replied
    Brett home and road relativized OPS+
    '74 102/80
    '75 147/103
    '76 165/123
    '77 148/136
    '78 156/92
    '79 168/128
    '80 196/210
    '81 153/137
    '82 111/171
    '83 144/172
    '84 134/108
    '85 191/167
    '86 148/128
    '87 111/151
    '88 130/168
    '89 104/142
    '90 124/182
    '91 86/116
    '92 86/118
    '93 82/106

    Up through 1979: 148 to 110 (the running and line drive years)
    From 1980 on: 129 to 148 (more of a fly ball hitter and more home runs).

    Overall: 135 to 137. Brett's first 6 years were helped a lot by the astroturf, and it probably helped get him established as an all star earlier, but when he switched to driving the ball more around '80 he did better on the road. A road relative OPS+ of 148 from 1980 through 1993 including 113 in his last 3 years, it is plausible that he could have DHed longer in a smaller park.

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  • brett
    replied
    Boggs home and road relativized BP adjusted OPS+
    REMEMBER that the values would be equal if the player hit as well on the road as at home on a relative basis

    Bos
    '82 135/121
    '83 164/136
    '83 137/113
    '85 172/130
    '86 149/165
    '87 186/162
    '88 178/158
    '89 165/119
    '90 153/91
    '91 171/109
    '92 90/102
    NY
    '93 104/104
    '94 145/139
    '95 110/86
    '96 97/99
    '97 84/120
    TB
    '98 75/113
    '99 86/90

    Boggs in boston years: 155 at home to 128 on the road!
    Boggs in other years: 100 at home to 107 on the road!

    So Boggs did not really "adjust" to other home parks, he just benefitted particularly from Boston. Furthermore Boggs' road adjusted OPS+'s would only suggest a true 121 OPS+ batter. This is a big reason why I drop Boggs in my overall ranking in war. With a 121 OPS+ he would actually lose about 132 batting runs above average (13 war) and drop to about 75 total war. He did particularly benefit from Boston.

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  • brett
    replied
    WAR per 162 and WAA per 162

    Yaz: 4.41 and 2.45
    George Brett: 5.03 and 3.03
    R. Henderson: 5.62 and 3.62
    Cal Ripken: 4.91 and 2.89
    R. Jackson: 3.93 and 2.03
    Al Kaline:5.00 and 3.17
    Wade Boggs: 5.86 and 3.82

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  • brett
    replied
    I wanted to insert somewhere that in '67 and '68 his road relative OPS+ was probably over 200 when Boston is factored out of road park averages. 198-199 even if we leave Boston in. But anyway that's 2 consecutive ROAD years, or a full season of play with a 200 OPS+ in for that setting. Albert Pujols never put up a 200 OPS+.

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