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Carl Yastrzemski's odd career

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  • SHOELESSJOE3
    replied
    Originally posted by brett View Post
    Boggs home and road relativized BP adjusted OPS+
    REMEMBER that the values would be equal if the player hit as well on the road as at home on a relative basis

    Bos
    '82 135/121
    '83 164/136
    '83 137/113
    '85 172/130
    '86 149/165
    '87 186/162
    '88 178/158
    '89 165/119
    '90 153/91
    '91 171/109
    '92 90/102
    NY
    '93 104/104
    '94 145/139
    '95 110/86
    '96 97/99
    '97 84/120
    TB
    '98 75/113
    '99 86/90

    Boggs in boston years: 155 at home to 128 on the road!
    Boggs in other years: 100 at home to 107 on the road!

    So Boggs did not really "adjust" to other home parks, he just benefitted particularly from Boston. Furthermore Boggs' road adjusted OPS+'s would only suggest a true 121 OPS+ batter. This is a big reason why I drop Boggs in my overall ranking in war. With a 121 OPS+ he would actually lose about 132 batting runs above average (13 war) and drop to about 75 total war. He did particularly benefit from Boston.
    Why are we making this so complicated.
    Boggs could not adjust, could not hit as well in his other home parks because they were not equal to Fenway as a hitters park.
    How much adjusting can a hitter make.

    What happened to another LH one time Bosox player, Fred Lynn.

    Lynn's batting average splits with Boston 1975-1980. Left out 1974, only 43 at bats
    ----------------H--------A
    1975----------.368-----.294
    1976----------.360-----.272
    1977----------.313-----.215
    1978----------.312-----.283
    1979----------.386-----.276
    1980----------.345-----.270 To say the gap is astounding, an understatement

    Lynn with Cal. 1981-1985
    ----------------H--------A
    1981---------.272-----.168------------------only 255 ab that season
    1982---------.291-----.308
    1983---------.274-----.271
    1984---------.240-----.278
    1985---------.272-----.255

    Did Lynn like Boggs, supposedly fail to adjust after he left Boston'

    Your putting too much into the adjusting Brett, it's simple, hitters love Fenwaw, maybe a good batter's eye CF, the small foul territory, one of the shortest home plate to backstop distances, only 54 feet, the big wall right behind third base..

    Never did I say Yaz was bad on the road, never did I say he reaped more benefits than any other batters Fenway, be they Bosox or opponents. The point is, he lived there, his whole career, more opportunities to boost his career stats and he did.
    Great player but if I was asked compare him to another from his era and would I factor in his home park, yes I would just as we do other hitters and pitchers.

    Maybe not that far away Brett, but we part ways on how much did Yaz benefit from playing his career at Fenway.
    Maybe we're both off, maybe it's some where in between my take and yours.
    Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 01-08-2013, 11:20 AM.

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  • Bothrops Atrox
    replied
    Originally posted by brett View Post
    So Boggs did not really "adjust" to other home parks, he just benefitted particularly from Boston. Furthermore Boggs' road adjusted OPS+'s would only suggest a true 121 OPS+ batter. This is a big reason why I drop Boggs in my overall ranking in war. With a 121 OPS+ he would actually lose about 132 batting runs above average (13 war) and drop to about 75 total war. He did particularly benefit from Boston.
    Total Zone seems to overestimating his defense compared to other systems too.I def. have Brett over Boggs.

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  • brett
    replied
    Brett home and road relativized OPS+
    '74 102/80
    '75 147/103
    '76 165/123
    '77 148/136
    '78 156/92
    '79 168/128
    '80 196/210
    '81 153/137
    '82 111/171
    '83 144/172
    '84 134/108
    '85 191/167
    '86 148/128
    '87 111/151
    '88 130/168
    '89 104/142
    '90 124/182
    '91 86/116
    '92 86/118
    '93 82/106

    Up through 1979: 148 to 110 (the running and line drive years)
    From 1980 on: 129 to 148 (more of a fly ball hitter and more home runs).

    Overall: 135 to 137. Brett's first 6 years were helped a lot by the astroturf, and it probably helped get him established as an all star earlier, but when he switched to driving the ball more around '80 he did better on the road. A road relative OPS+ of 148 from 1980 through 1993 including 113 in his last 3 years, it is plausible that he could have DHed longer in a smaller park.

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  • brett
    replied
    Boggs home and road relativized BP adjusted OPS+
    REMEMBER that the values would be equal if the player hit as well on the road as at home on a relative basis

    Bos
    '82 135/121
    '83 164/136
    '83 137/113
    '85 172/130
    '86 149/165
    '87 186/162
    '88 178/158
    '89 165/119
    '90 153/91
    '91 171/109
    '92 90/102
    NY
    '93 104/104
    '94 145/139
    '95 110/86
    '96 97/99
    '97 84/120
    TB
    '98 75/113
    '99 86/90

    Boggs in boston years: 155 at home to 128 on the road!
    Boggs in other years: 100 at home to 107 on the road!

    So Boggs did not really "adjust" to other home parks, he just benefitted particularly from Boston. Furthermore Boggs' road adjusted OPS+'s would only suggest a true 121 OPS+ batter. This is a big reason why I drop Boggs in my overall ranking in war. With a 121 OPS+ he would actually lose about 132 batting runs above average (13 war) and drop to about 75 total war. He did particularly benefit from Boston.

    Leave a comment:


  • brett
    replied
    WAR per 162 and WAA per 162

    Yaz: 4.41 and 2.45
    George Brett: 5.03 and 3.03
    R. Henderson: 5.62 and 3.62
    Cal Ripken: 4.91 and 2.89
    R. Jackson: 3.93 and 2.03
    Al Kaline:5.00 and 3.17
    Wade Boggs: 5.86 and 3.82

    Leave a comment:


  • brett
    replied
    I wanted to insert somewhere that in '67 and '68 his road relative OPS+ was probably over 200 when Boston is factored out of road park averages. 198-199 even if we leave Boston in. But anyway that's 2 consecutive ROAD years, or a full season of play with a 200 OPS+ in for that setting. Albert Pujols never put up a 200 OPS+.

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  • brett
    replied
    Originally posted by Second Base Coach View Post
    From 1971 to 1983, he averaged .275 with 16 home runs and 75 RBI per season. I might be the last person on earth to continue to give value to Triple Crown figures... but there you go.

    He spent ten years building up his legendary status, then played 13 more years after that, without raising his numbers. That is a tremendous amount of time to enjoy a legendary status without reinforcing it much. No wonder our impressions of him are a little higher than reality. Who could blame us?

    I do agree there. He was not helped relatively by his park during either stretch but he had about a 143 OPS+ through 1970, and about 118 for his last 13 years while playing LF, 1B and DH. 118 is about average for a first baseman, though he was still probably a very PLUS fielder over that span in LF.

    One way to look at it is that
    from 1961-1970 he had 18.5 war up to the average level and 41.4 waa
    and from 1971 on he had 21.6 war up to the average level and 8.6 waa

    So he was 5 times more above average during the first strecth
    and 70% of his war in the second stretch was just for being average.

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  • Jackaroo Dave
    replied
    Originally posted by Second Base Coach View Post
    From 1971 to 1983, he averaged .275 with 16 home runs and 75 RBI per season. I might be the last person on earth to continue to give value to Triple Crown figures... but there you go.

    He spent ten years building up his legendary status, then played 13 more years after that, without raising his numbers. That is a tremendous amount of time to enjoy a legendary status without reinforcing it much. No wonder our impressions of him are a little higher than reality. Who could blame us?
    I think I do know how you feel: Yes, he had those great years; yes, his counting totals are staggering; but where's the quality in between? In his great years, his triple crown numbers were terrific. Afterwards, a much larger proportion of his value was in defense and getting on base, which is not where you expect it in a left fielder/first baseman. His dropoff was in BA and power, the most conspicuous, but not the only sources of his greatness. When I was enamored with triple crown stats, I felt exactly as you put it in your second paragraph. Also, at that time I didn't realize how much of even the Hall of Famers' value consists of being just good for a long time.

    If Yaz had retired in, say, 75, after his last post-season hurrah, his career line might look more attractive. .291/.389/.473, 137 ops+, over 300 homers, 1300 runs, 1200 RBI, all in 15 years, including the entire second dead ball era. Plus 145 steals, 12 All Star games, 6 gold gloves. He continued to help his team thereafter, but even the complementary all star selections stopped.

    There are two extreme ways superstars handle aging: Some, like DiMaggio and Mantle, quit when they can't meet their own standards, even though they are still valuable. Others, like Yaz and Ricky Henderson, you have to run them down and cut the uniform off them. I admire both; both show an intense love of the game.

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by Second Base Coach View Post
    From 1971 to 1983, he averaged .275 with 16 home runs and 75 RBI per season. I might be the last person on earth to continue to give value to Triple Crown figures... but there you go.
    What was the league batting average during that time?

    Leave a comment:


  • Second Base Coach
    replied
    From 1971 to 1983, he averaged .275 with 16 home runs and 75 RBI per season. I might be the last person on earth to continue to give value to Triple Crown figures... but there you go.

    He spent ten years building up his legendary status, then played 13 more years after that, without raising his numbers. That is a tremendous amount of time to enjoy a legendary status without reinforcing it much. No wonder our impressions of him are a little higher than reality. Who could blame us?

    Leave a comment:


  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by Second Base Coach View Post
    Jeepers Cats... go look up his numbers.
    Yaz 70-79: .384 OBP .452 SLG .374 wOBA, 128 wRC+, 43.4 WAR

    League average 70-79: .323 OBP, .377 SLG, .318 wOBA


    Yeah...Well above average.

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  • brett
    replied
    So basically what I've shown now is that Yaz road relative OPS+ was a little OVER 130 and his home relative OPS+ was a little under 130! That means simply that his OPS+ and WAR are not boosted by his ballpark at all.

    How can his road relative OPS+ be better than his home relative OPS+ when he went .359/.422 on the road and .408/.503 at home? Because the league on the road went .309/.362 on the road but .359/.434 at Fenway with home park adjustments.

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  • Second Base Coach
    replied
    Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
    Exactly - he was a wellll above average player for most of the 70' - All Star level in 2-3 of those seasons.
    Jeepers Cats... go look up his numbers.

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  • Second Base Coach
    replied
    Originally posted by filihok View Post
    What do I need your numbers for, man? Who do you think knows more about him, the fans that watched, and loved, him? Or some spreadsheet? [/parody]
    It was those fans who were adding to his overratedness, if that is a word. I consider them to be part of the problem, rather than a source of clarity.

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  • brett
    replied
    Originally posted by brett View Post
    Using a different method, I estimate the league league LEAGUE road rates for Yaz' career to be .309 and .362 on base and slugging percentage. His career road rates were .357 and.422.

    That would give him a relative OB% of 1.155 and a relative slugging percentage of 1.166 for a road OPS+ of 132.

    Once more I've decided to calculate Yaz home OPS+ relative to park and home field advantage. Since the league road rates for his career are .309 and .362, and his overall league rates adjusted for ballpark are .334 and .398, then the home rates that should be used for the league to calculate his home OPS+ are .359 and .434.

    his home rates once again were .408 and .503 which would give him a home relativized relative OB% of 1.136 and a home relativized relative slugging of 1.159 for an overall home relative OPS+ of 129.5

    So it turns out Yaz actually was just as good of a relative hitter on the road and outside of Fenway as he was a relative hitter at home and in Fenway.

    Here's the crux of it.

    League road rates: .309/.362
    his road rates: .359/.422
    OPS+ about 132.5

    League home rates adjusted for Fenway: .359/.434
    His home rates: .408/.503
    OPS+ about 129.5

    Compare the league adjusted rates on the road to the league adjusted rates in Fenway with a normal home field advantage:

    LEAGUE
    Road to Home/Boston
    .309 to .359
    .362 to .434

    That's what an average player would be expected to do in each of those settings, but ultimately the point is that his .359/.422 rates on the road versus a league that went .309 and .359 on the road are just as good as his home rates were relative to his home park, if not a little better.

    My earlier estimates tried to estimate league adjusted rates from park factors which ended up being inaccurate and surprising.
    Consider that Boston has a park factor of about 107, meaning that it produced about 114% of the league average offense, all else being equal, however Boston produced about 11% higher on base percentage and 15% higher slugging percentage than the rest of the league. That means that an average hitter in Boston would have a 126 OPS+ if we didn't account for park factors, and yet we only get 14% more offense. If the "ops+ is linear with offense" hypothesis were true we'd expect scoring to be 26% higher in Boston, but park factors say it was only 14% higher.
    I edited this post with some interesting findings.

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