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Carl Yastrzemski's odd career

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  • Jackaroo Dave
    replied
    Originally posted by brett View Post
    That's actually easy because we have sOPS+ scores for individual seasons (just not career). Park factors do not go into home and road sOPS+ (it is just your home rates and road rates relative to all players in their home parks or on the road).
    So road sOPS+ for a given season is basically half of the OPS+ equation and you can figure out the other half from a players total OPS+ for the year. For example if a guy has a 150 road sOPS+ and a 160 overall sOPS+ then his home sOPS+ would be 170 (given about the same number of plate appearances, and within a maybe half a percent error due to not hitting in your home park when on the road).
    In other words road sOPS+ is actually how well you did on the road taking into account a normal road diminishment.
    So road sOPS+ SHOULD be equal to total sOPS+ if you have "normal" splits (though home sOPS+ will not because a high or low offensive ballpark is actually not factored into sOPS+.)
    So I will assemble home and road sOPS+ in my next post. Also I might do the same for Boggs and Brett who have interesting splits over the years.
    Oh, if that's all there is to it, why didn't you say so?
    Seriously, thanks for all your efforts and time taken to explain their results.

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  • SHOELESSJOE3
    replied
    I can tell you one thing that effected slugging home/away Fenway, doubles.
    It was always a great doubles park, wide gap between home and away doubles.
    OK I know about the Green Monster, short distance and high.
    But it has to be more than the wall, look at the LH hitters on the list and the home/away doubles splits.

    Don't neglect the configuration on the right side, RF line to deepest RCF.
    I've heard more than a few players comment on handling balls off that barrier.
    So no denying, the wall is the biggest factor but you would think that the RH hitters double home/away splits would be more extreme than the LH hitters. I could see Boggs making use of that wall, more often than the other LH hitters.

    Those are some very hugh gaps for the LH Bosox hitter.
    How does it play into slugging. It's telling me that balls hit into some areas are doubles at Fenway but not at other parks.
    Slugging is all about bases gained per at bat, picking up that one more base per at bat, with splits like that, boost slugging.

    Any kind of EBH, obviously a plus for slugging.
    Attached Files
    Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 01-07-2013, 04:33 PM.

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  • brett
    replied
    Using a different method, I estimate the league league LEAGUE road rates for Yaz' career to be .309 and .362 on base and slugging percentage. His career road rates were .357 and.422.

    That would give him a relative OB% of 1.155 and a relative slugging percentage of 1.166 for a road OPS+ of 132.

    Once more I've decided to calculate Yaz home OPS+ relative to park and home field advantage. Since the league road rates for his career are .309 and .362, and his overall league rates adjusted for ballpark are .334 and .398, then the home rates that should be used for the league to calculate his home OPS+ are .359 and .434.

    his home rates once again were .408 and .503 which would give him a home relativized relative OB% of 1.136 and a home relativized relative slugging of 1.159 for an overall home relative OPS+ of 129.5

    So it turns out Yaz actually was just as good of a relative hitter on the road and outside of Fenway as he was a relative hitter at home and in Fenway.

    Here's the crux of it.

    League road rates: .309/.362
    his road rates: .359/.422
    OPS+ about 132.5

    League home rates adjusted for Fenway: .359/.434
    His home rates: .408/.503
    OPS+ about 129.5

    Compare the league adjusted rates on the road to the league adjusted rates in Fenway with a normal home field advantage:

    LEAGUE
    Road to Home/Boston
    .309 to .359
    .362 to .434

    That's what an average player would be expected to do in each of those settings, but ultimately the point is that his .359/.422 rates on the road versus a league that went .309 and .359 on the road are just as good as his home rates were relative to his home park, if not a little better.

    My earlier estimates tried to estimate league adjusted rates from park factors which ended up being inaccurate and surprising.
    Consider that Boston has a park factor of about 107, meaning that it produced about 114% of the league average offense, all else being equal, however Boston produced about 11% higher on base percentage and 15% higher slugging percentage than the rest of the league. That means that an average hitter in Boston would have a 126 OPS+ if we didn't account for park factors, and yet we only get 14% more offense. If the "ops+ is linear with offense" hypothesis were true we'd expect scoring to be 26% higher in Boston, but park factors say it was only 14% higher.
    Last edited by brett; 01-07-2013, 06:29 PM.

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  • westsidegrounds
    replied
    Looking at a "traditional" stat (batting average):

    In his last 10 seasons, Yaz at Fenway outhit Yaz elsewhere by 65 points or more in 1976, 1977, 1979, 1981, and 1982.

    He hit 10 to 46 points better at Fenway in 1974, 1975, and 1978.

    He hit better on the road (by 15 to 31 points) in 1980 and 1983
    Last edited by westsidegrounds; 01-07-2013, 04:16 PM. Reason: 10 is tidier than 11

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  • brett
    replied
    Home and road relativized OPS+. Normal splits would mean equal scores in this case.

    Yaz
    Year: Home/Road
    1961: 114/68
    1962: 140/100
    1963:118/178
    1964: 109/139
    1965: 177/135
    1966: 137/101
    1967: 187/199
    1968: 144/198
    1969: 134/138
    1970: 181/173
    Mean*: 144/143

    1971: 108/118
    1972: 125/111
    1973: 127/151
    1974: 138/142
    1975: 107/117
    1976: 138/102
    1977: 135/115
    1978: 97/127
    1979: 125/91
    1980: 90/142
    1981: 119/73
    1982: 114/108
    1983: 96/116
    Mean 117/116

    Total 130.5/129.5

    That's a little odd, but it is more accurate that my prior calculations because I guessed at what the ballpark effect would be on slugging and on-base percentage.

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  • brett
    replied
    Originally posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
    I hope in his study, Brett compares Yaz's home-road splits before the great fall-off and after. After 1970, Yaz wasn't just a lesser hitter; he was a different kind of hitter. I didn't have the privilege of watching Yaz during his superduperstardom, but when I saw him later, he would definitely swing to go the other way.

    Now in the SI article, Yaz insists that he's not doing anything differently, just swinging naturally. But that is at the start of his decline.

    if he did make adjustments so that he could maintain a lower but substantial level of performance, it would be of interest to see if it affected his home-road splits and whether he took a Fenway Leftie swing with him on the road. For me the issues are intertwined, and the abrupt change in performance level provides an experimental design to test them.
    That's actually easy because we have sOPS+ scores for individual seasons (just not career). Park factors do not go into home and road sOPS+ (it is just your home rates and road rates relative to all players in their home parks or on the road).

    So road sOPS+ for a given season is basically half of the OPS+ equation and you can figure out the other half from a players total OPS+ for the year. For example if a guy has a 150 road sOPS+ and a 160 overall sOPS+ then his home sOPS+ would be 170 (given about the same number of plate appearances, and within a maybe half a percent error due to not hitting in your home park when on the road).

    In other words road sOPS+ is actually how well you did on the road taking into account a normal road diminishment.

    So road sOPS+ SHOULD be equal to total sOPS+ if you have "normal" splits (though home sOPS+ will not because a high or low offensive ballpark is actually not factored into sOPS+.)

    So I will assemble home and road sOPS+ in my next post. Also I might do the same for Boggs and Brett who have interesting splits over the years.

    Leave a comment:


  • SHOELESSJOE3
    replied
    Originally posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
    Fair enough, Joe. I knew there was a difference, but not that it was that great. Thanks for the data. I see your point, too, about Cro, Hoss, and Milkshake. They could have played in Heiwa Park in Fukuoka Japan and it wouldn't have helped.

    On the other hand, even further off topic, I've heard, and the splits bear it out, that Paul Waner benefited from the wide open expanses of Forbes Field, and I found that Earl Averill had a huge home advantage despite playing in "Cavernous Municipal Stadium." tOPS+ of 110-90 for Waner, 117-83 for Averill.

    The Clipper was a line drive hitter, too, just on a bigger scale. You'd think it would have been possible for him, like Mel Ott in reverse, to be a homers guy away and send liners all over that huge outfield at home like Paul Waner on steroids, hitting .380 and slugging .580. (He did have way more triples at home, not many doubles.) It ain't that simple, is it?
    Surprise to me, Paul Waner had only 6 career IPHR's at Forbes Field. Line drive, gap hitter with some speed.

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  • Jackaroo Dave
    replied
    Originally posted by PVNICK View Post
    I read the article and had already seen and read elsewhere that players typically do better at home. I just pointed out that the graph which getting thrown out there as proof of that sucked. Anyway how does this tie in to Yaz having a few monster years then tailing off dramatically for a decade, which I think was the premise of the thread?
    I hope in his study, Brett compares Yaz's home-road splits before the great fall-off and after. After 1970, Yaz wasn't just a lesser hitter; he was a different kind of hitter. I didn't have the privilege of watching Yaz during his superduperstardom, but when I saw him later, he would definitely swing to go the other way.

    Now in the SI article, Yaz insists that he's not doing anything differently, just swinging naturally. But that is at the start of his decline.

    if he did make adjustments so that he could maintain a lower but substantial level of performance, it would be of interest to see if it affected his home-road splits and whether he took a Fenway Leftie swing with him on the road. For me the issues are intertwined, and the abrupt change in performance level provides an experimental design to test them.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jackaroo Dave
    replied
    Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
    JD respecting your opinion but I see no comparison to Joe Dimaggio at Yankee Stadium and Arod at Yankee Stadium, two different worlds.
    The same in name only, Yankee Stadium but hugh, much bigger in Joe's time than Arods time. What would Arod have to adapt to, when he played at Yankee Stadium it was like many other parks, not Death Valley. Not a shock he did better at home, home was just another park when he played there.
    Deep LCf when Joe played there----457----- Arod----399
    CF--------------------------------461------Arod----408
    Power alley deep RCF--------------407------Arod----385
    Who would believe that Arod home run splits would be what they are if he played in th bigger Yankee Stadium, home would suffer, simple math. In fact Joe's first season there, CF was 487 feet.
    Arod a strong guy but some of those deep home runs to LCF and CF today, some of them would not clear the barrier.
    I suppose some could now say, well that the way it is, this is where Arod plays.
    Fine, but don't try to compare Joe's situation at home to Arods, there is no basis, two different parks.
    Fair enough, Joe. I knew there was a difference, but not that it was that great. Thanks for the data. I see your point, too, about Cro, Hoss, and Milkshake. They could have played in Heiwa Park in Fukuoka Japan and it wouldn't have helped.

    On the other hand, even further off topic, I've heard, and the splits bear it out, that Paul Waner benefited from the wide open expanses of Forbes Field, and I found that Earl Averill had a huge home advantage despite playing in "Cavernous Municipal Stadium." tOPS+ of 110-90 for Waner, 117-83 for Averill.

    The Clipper was a line drive hitter, too, just on a bigger scale. You'd think it would have been possible for him, like Mel Ott in reverse, to be a homers guy away and send liners all over that huge outfield at home like Paul Waner on steroids, hitting .380 and slugging .580. (He did have way more triples at home, not many doubles.) It ain't that simple, is it?

    Leave a comment:


  • SHOELESSJOE3
    replied
    Originally posted by filihok View Post
    You realize that that is a different chart than the one that I am referring to?
    Now I know.

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  • Bothrops Atrox
    replied
    Guys, the only point here is that you can't just multiply road stats x2 to estimate a guys career numbers since a huge majority of hitters hit better at home than on the road, minus a small group who play in extreme pitcher parks. I am not even sure what some people are arguing about here. Everybody knows Yaz was helped by his park. We are just saying that he was probably somewhat better than just road stats x2. How much better? That is largely speculation, but the trend data can give us some clue.

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  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by PVNICK View Post
    I read the article and had already seen and read elsewhere that players typically do better at home. I just pointed out that the graph which getting thrown out there as proof of that sucked. Anyway how does this tie in to Yaz having a few monster years then tailing off dramatically for a decade, which I think was the premise of the thread?
    http://www.baseball-fever.com/showth...04#post2103704

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  • PVNICK
    replied
    I read the article and had already seen and read elsewhere that players typically do better at home. I just pointed out that the graph which getting thrown out there as proof of that sucked. Anyway how does this tie in to Yaz having a few monster years then tailing off dramatically for a decade, which I think was the premise of the thread?

    Leave a comment:


  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
    I only used the words the biggest because thats what it said, my post #1340. I was speaking of the one set of stats, it says the biggest since 2008. I said it's a small sample. You say it doesn't but here it is. Maybe I miss your point, when you say it doesn't.
    You realize that that is a different chart than the one that I am referring to?

    Leave a comment:


  • brett
    replied
    I think the graph may be quicker to understand this way.
    Attached Files

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