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Can Alex Rodriguez Hit 116 More HR?

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  • Can Alex Rodriguez Hit 116 More HR?

    That would break the record. He is 36. Going to miss half this season.
    "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

  • #2
    My gut tells me it's not going happen (unfortunately). I'd give it a 10-15% chance.
    My top 10 players:

    1. Babe Ruth
    2. Barry Bonds
    3. Ty Cobb
    4. Ted Williams
    5. Willie Mays
    6. Alex Rodriguez
    7. Hank Aaron
    8. Honus Wagner
    9. Lou Gehrig
    10. Mickey Mantle

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    • #3
      He'll struggle to get past Babe Ruth for the #3 spot.
      Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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      • #4
        Can? Of course. Likely? No.
        1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

        1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

        1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


        The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
        The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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        • #5
          I don't even think he'll reach 700, he appears to be about done.
          They call me Mr. Baseball. Not because of my love for the game; because of all the stitches in my head.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
            He is 36.
            He's going to be 38 in July.

            He still has some ability, but injuries and time are really taking their toll. Anything's possible, but I think he'll struggle to get much past 700. Still a remarkable career, one of the dozen or so best alltime among position players.

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            • #7
              what is the record from his Age onwards?
              I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by dominik View Post
                what is the record from his Age onwards?
                Mostly like some guy with initials B.L.B. who liked to use maple bats.

                I checked and he had 195 HRs from his age 37 season on. A-Rod won't come close to matching that.
                Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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                • #9
                  From age 37 on, most home runs, Top 10

                  Code:
                  .       Player            HR     PA
                  1.   Barry Bonds         195	2801
                  2.   Hank Aaron          163	2816
                  3.   Darrell Evans       152	3132
                  4.   Carlton Fisk        146	3630
                  5.   Ted Williams        127	2288
                  6.   Rafael Palmeiro     122 	2390
                  7.   Carl Yastrzemski    114    3606
                  8.   Andres Galarraga    111	2279
                       Edgar Martinez      111	2805
                  10.  Dave Winfield       108	2892
                  Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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                  • #10
                    If he could somehow play until he was 42. Hey, it's possible!
                    Rest in Peace Jose Fernandez (1992-2016)

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                    • #11
                      Just to play a little game:

                      He'll be 38 this July- let's be optimisitic and say that he comes back, plays the second half of the 2013 season, and is effective- let's give him 15 HR for 2013. THat brings him to 663. Let's also say that he's basically healthy and productive in 2014 and hits 30 HR- that gives him 693 and he's now 39+. He'll turn 40 just after the halfway point in 2015- I've given him what I think is a strong benefit of the doubt concerning health and performance for 1013/2014. How much more does he have after that? I just can't imagine him coming close to Bonds or Aaron.

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                      • #12
                        He's got so much money and so many years left, that the Yankees need to preserve him to get the most value over his remaining seasons. No more starting at 3B 80% of his games like he has the past two years while getting injured. He should be 100% DH from now on. If they do that, there's still a solid chance as he was on pace for 22-23 HRs a year in shortened '11 & '12. Take away the rigors of playing in the field, and it might suit him well at this stage of his career.
                        "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

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                        • #13
                          I think he'll finish somewhere in the mid 700's.

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                          • #14
                            Hitting homers falls off with age of course due to reduced muscle mass and slower bat speed.

                            It's plausible to hit 20 at age 40 (many people have done it), to have 18 at age 41 and 15 at age 42. After that, there is little to hope for more. So that's 53. Obviously, to accomplish that he has to stay in shape, keep his bat speed and stay healthy. It's not a given, but on the other hand, one can hardly expect more.

                            That gives him 3 years (ages 37-38-39), to amass 63 homers. Certainly that's doable. The loss of half of next year makes it more difficult, and more injuries reduces the chance. There will have to be one good year in their (like 30+), but again, it's been done at these ages. But it still takes things like: health (playing 140+ games a year), bat speed and strength, repair of his hip issues?

                            It's a mistake to dismiss the chance simply because we don't see the hitter he was before. All HR hitters have declines but continue to hit homers. By the same token, there's very little room for error.
                            "It's better to look good, than be good."

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                            • #15
                              http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...ar=2012&lg=MLB

                              A move to Miller Park(rightys 163hr 4.1%)(for crying out loud Braun?) or US Cellular(rightys 137hr) wouldn't hurt. Leftys at Yankee Stadium hit 139 HR's(4.64%) compared to only 93 HR's(3%) for rightys.

                              Also, Rogers Center, Coors Field, Camden Yards, Great American Ballpark, Rangers Ballpark(he tore that one a new one already), Angel Stadium are like a PED(I only give max 2%) for rightys.
                              sigpic

                              "If I hear Bowie Kuhn say just once more he's doing something for the betterment of baseball, I'm going to throw-up.">Sparky Anderson
                              MLB/Rockies/Yankees, Backer

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