Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Mays vs Aaron

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    Originally posted by digglahhh
    Also, later in his career ('66) Aaron got to move to the Launching Pad, which was further augmented in '69. Check out the park factor for the tail end of Aaron's career. Willie might have liked to hit there in his later years.
    True Atlanta was the launching pad. However, Candlestick being a graveyard and hurting Willie is a total myth.

    Comment


    • #17
      Joe,

      I'm aware of that, Willie really learned how to use the winds there, which is another testament to his greatness. He was not only obscenely gifted, but truly resourceful as well. Candlestick hurt many others more than it hurt Willie.

      That is one my general underlying assumptions about park factors/features and great players.

      Great players are able to better make use of advantages given to them by the park and are able to minimize the disadvantages of poor parks. For the latter they should be given some form of, at least abstract, credit. For the former we shouldn't dock them for having a great park as much as we do mediocre players who parlay a park advantage into a statistical record that presents them as better players than they are.

      As a Met fan, I would always think about what Piazza would have looked like in his prime at Coors/Mile High.
      Last edited by digglahhh; 01-03-2006, 06:44 PM.
      THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

      In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by BillyF29
        ....then you realize WARP 3 says that Carlos Guillen had a better 2004 than Vladimir Guerrero and you realize that something is wrong there.
        Carlos Guillen was better than Vladimir Guerrero in 2004. Forget about the names for a second. Carlos Guillen hit .318/.379/.542 with a .316 EqA and Vladimir Guerrero hit .336/.391/.598. The average SS hit .275/.325/.422 and the average RF hit .276/.344/.440. Carlos Guillen was a 40 run fielder at the most important position in the field and Vladimir Guerrero was about average in RF.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by BoSox Rule
          My top 20 goes like this.
          1. Babe Ruth
          2. Barry Bonds
          3. Willie Mays
          4. Ted Williams
          5. Ty Cobb
          6. Honus Wagner
          7. Stan Musial
          8. Walter Johnson
          9. Eddie Collins
          10. Rogers Hornsby
          11. Hank Aaron
          12. Nap Lajoie
          13. Mel Ott
          14. Tris Speaker
          15. Mickey Mantle
          16. Alex Rodriguez
          17. Lou Gehrig
          18. Roger Clemens
          19. Arky Vaughan
          20. Joe Morgan
          Sorry if I'm hijacking this thread, but this confirms my belief that Mel Ott is one of the most overrated players of all time. I once wrote this on Reggie Jackson versus Ott (I added a bit to it):

          I've always had him over Ott, which is a minority opinion. Maybe it is a bias working, but I think there is good evidence. When you look at Ott's stats, the first thing that jumps out are his power numbers, particularly his home run numbers. I don't think Ott was really a great home run hitter. The Polo Grounds made him something he wasn't. He may have not even hit 400 HRs in his career. The common argument against that is that the Polo Grounds were actually a bad contact hitting park. But, think about it, would Ott's average go up or down if he played elsewhere? To me, that's an easy question. It would have gone down. Those hundreds of cheap HRs would mostly turn into outs, not doubles as is the belief. The foul poles at the Polo Grounds were about 250 feet. In most parks, a 250-300 foot fly ball is an out. Probably at least half of those HRs would have been outs, which would greatly reduce his value.

          Reggie was a great home run hitter, one of the greatest of all time. He played in a much stronger league. His 1969 was far better than any of Ott's years. The career rate stats have a huge gap, but Reggie had a long decline that dilluted them. The peak OPS+ is about the same, which is saying a real lot considering the league quality and park differences. Reggie was better.


          I saw your top 100 list on another thread, BoSox. You have Reggie 70th! How is this possible, Ott 57 spots ahead?

          Comment


          • #20
            For him not to crack the top 10 on any list seems pretty silly to me.
            Aaron is #7 on my position player list. He gets shoved down much lower than he should be by people who take little account of era, and stuff the top of their lists with old timers.
            "The numbers are what brought me here; as it appears they brought you."
            - Danielle Rousseau

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by GiambiJuice
              For him not to crack the top 10 on any list seems pretty silly to me.

              Any thoughts?
              He's moved up a ton in my estimation over the past few years. Aaron was just an awesome hitter and a tremendous all-around player for nearly 20 years. Not many have ever done that, and very few modern players have done it. Aaron had his best years in what might have been the most competitive, strongest league in baseball history.

              I read an interview with Aaron a few years back, and inevitably, the question arose as to who he felt was a better player- himself, or Willie.

              Aaron put it succinctly: "My numbers do the talking".

              While I can't agree with him, had he played started his career (and played many years) in NY, and Willie in blah Milwaukee, I think they'd be perceived VERY differently these days.

              I've tried to locate that article and would love to post excerpts. Ill keep looking.

              Comment


              • #22
                --Atlanta gave Aaron some HR, but Milwakee took some away. Hank was in a pretty park nuetral situation for his career overall.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by 538280
                  I saw your top 100 list on another thread, BoSox. You have Reggie 70th! How is this possible, Ott 57 spots ahead?
                  I was honestly surprised with how low he came out using the WARP3 system I used, which is made up of five components. Career WARP, 5 best, 10 best ,162 before age 32 times 10, and 162 game average for his career * 20. I thought he would come out better, he is now down to 80th using what I used. Somehow, he is behind Nomar Garciaparra. I think I am giving too much credit to 162 game average with the 20 multiplier. Actually, I don't think that. I am 500% SURE I was WAY wrong. 9.5 for 2 years is worth the same as 9.5 for 20 years. I need to come up with new multiplier based on games played.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by digglahhh
                    Also, later in his career ('66) Aaron got to move to the Launching Pad, which was further augmented in '69. Check out the park factor for the tail end of Aaron's career. Willie might have liked to hit there in his later years.
                    I don't buy it. Where'd you read this?

                    Not that I generally like Rob Neyer's writing, but I always archive the best articles.

                    http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/neyer_rob/1374309.html

                    (And here's that other article for those who haven't seen it):
                    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=2795

                    Gotta be fair to Hank too (Candlestick's effects have been much overhyped).

                    That said, hell yes, Willie would have loved to play the waning years of his career in that shoebox in Atlanta. Neyer never makes Mays career HR total projections playing in a great homerun park; he simply states that Candlestick didn't actually depress Mays' HR totals.

                    Which gets me thinking on to the hypothetical and into the realm of reconciliation.....

                    Consider that Aaron's HR totals were bolstered by about 40% due to Atlanta Fulton-County Stadium- In his nine years in Atlanta, Aaron hit 192 homers at home, 145 on the road.

                    What if Mays' HR totals had been bolstered by 40% from 1966-73 (as Hank's were) due to park factors that had nothing to do with his talent? Willie hit 155 homeruns during that timeframe. 40% more equals roughly 215 homeruns.

                    The park alone would have brought him to approximately 720 career homeruns.

                    But wait... Willie missed all of 1952 and almost all of 1953 (almost 275 possible games) due to being drafted into the Army..gotta believe he lost at the very least 60 homeruns by not being eligible to play those 250+ games. I mean, he came back and hit 41 and 51 homers in consecutive seasons in 54' and 55'.

                    That would have put Willie Mays way past 755.

                    Aaron never missed a game due to military service.

                    In a kind of rational yet also sentimental way, I think Mays deserves to be the alltime homerun king.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by digglahhh
                      Joe,

                      I'm aware of that, Willie really learned how to use the winds there, which is another testament to his greatness. He was not only obscenely gifted, but truly resourceful as well. Candlestick hurt many others more than it hurt Willie.

                      That is one my general underlying assumptions about park factors/features and great players.
                      Not to burst your bubble, D, but..

                      The Giants moved to Candlestick in 1960, and Mays moved right along with them. So how'd he do? Here are Willie's home/road homer splits from 1960 through 1971 (he was traded to the Mets early in the '72 season):

                      Home HR
                      202

                      Road HR
                      194

                      Yes, in a dozen seasons Mays actually homered more often at Candlestick than he did in road games.

                      Was Mays an oddity? Did he somehow figure out a way to take advantage of Candlestick? Well, during all of Mays' years there, he teamed with the amazing Willie McCovey. Here are McCovey's home/road splits from 1960 through '71:

                      Home HR
                      183

                      Road HR
                      175

                      Hmmmm. We've checked two prodigious power hitters, and both did quite well in Candlestick. And the rest of the Giants? Here are the totals for Mays' and McCovey's teammates over those 12 seasons:

                      Home HR
                      583

                      Road HR
                      572


                      Amazing. Mays hit four percent more homers at Candlestick than he did in road games. McCovey hit five percent more homers at Candlestick. Their teammates hit two percent more homers at Candlestick.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        The only year Candlestick was a severe pitcher's park was in 1960. After that it was actually a slight hitter's park.

                        For whatever reason, people believe that Candlestick was hell for hitters and many falsely believe that Candlestick murdered Willie like Yankee Stadium murdered DiMaggio which just isn't true.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          During their careers, Willie was perceived as the heavier slugger due to his HR totals. Hanks never hit 50.

                          Willie led in SB 4 yrs. in a row.

                          Willie played CF, and was more exciting to watch. More colorful.

                          It wasn't merely defense, although that was a big part of it.

                          Willie was perceived as the better hitter, even if Hank takes him in longevity.

                          Willie played in NYC, media hub, which gave him media almost the level of Mantle.

                          Hank playing in Milwaukee/Atlanta had to hurt him. NY, Chicago, LA would have been much better.

                          Willie hit over .330 3 times, Hank once.

                          Hank hit over 40 HRs 8 times, Willie 6. But Willie hit 52, 51 HRs in one season, Hank 44.

                          Willie's high OPS+ were 185, 176, 175.
                          Hank's high OPS+ were 194, 181, 179.

                          All in all, I think Willie won the PR battle.

                          Bill Burgess
                          Last edited by Bill Burgess; 01-03-2006, 09:34 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            I admit that being a Giants fan, and in particular a huge Mays fan may skew my view somewhat, but I think one thing in particular stands out. As CSH said, had Willie not lost all those games to the service we aren't having this conversation, Willie would have buried Hank.

                            With that said, IMO, Hank is one of the most remarkably consistant great players. Perhaps no other player was as consitantly good for such a long time. But no matter what Hank thinks (and I'd probably feel the same if I was him) Willie was better in almost every facet of the game. Not better by a lot, but better.

                            KH14
                            “Well, I like to say I’m completely focused, right? I mean, the game’s on the line. It’s not like I’m thinking about what does barbecue Pop Chips and Cholula taste like. Because I already know that answer — it tastes friggin’ awesome!"--Brian Wilson

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              --Even if you give Willie the most optimistic projection for the time missed in 52-3 he still comes up short of Hank in all the counting stats. With their rate stats being virtually identical that would appear to put Hank slightly ahead as a hitter. Willie was still the better player due to his defensive and baserunning advantages though. That said, Aaron has the edge in one or both of those categories over most of the other great hitters.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Hmmmm. We've checked two prodigious power hitters, and both did quite well in Candlestick. And the rest of the Giants? Here are the totals for Mays' and McCovey's teammates over those 12 seasons:

                                Home HR
                                583
                                Road HR
                                572
                                Were you ever at Candlestick, particularly before they closed it up? Winds went from left to right, so McCovey was helped a little by the jet stream. And, I'd bet that the records show that, after 1954, when Mays consciously became more of a power hitter because the team needed that, his Polo Grounds home runs were more pull shots, and in Candlestick he became more of a gap hitter to try to neutralize the wind. If he could've been more of a pull hitter, his home run numbers everywhere might have gone up.

                                Quick question to all. In the aggregate, do hitters hit more home runs at home than away? If you take all hitters for all teams, the park advantages obviously balance out, so whatever split you have may account simply for an overall "home field" advantage, as exists in other sports -- whether the advantage comes from simply sleeping at home, avoiding travel, comfort with the facilities, familiarity with the lighting and background, whatever... In other words, is the negligible 11 home run SF Giant home-away home run differential less than would be expected in a perfectly average park?
                                sigpicIt's not whether you fall -- everyone does -- but how you come out of the fall that counts.

                                Comment

                                Ad Widget

                                Collapse
                                Working...
                                X