Would Teddy Ballgame have hit 715 HRs?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

If Williams didn't miss playing time because of military service would he have passed Babe Ruth in HRs?

FYI

1941-37 HR (age 22)
1942-36 HR (23)
1946-38 HR (27)
1947-32 HR (28)
1948-25 HR (29)
1949-43 HR (30)

He average 35.2 HRs during this stretch.

He missed all of 1943-45. In 1952 he played in six games and in 1953 he played 37 games. So I came up with 4.85 seasons missed. He needed 194 HRs to pass Ruth, an average of 40 per season.

194/4.85 = 40.0

I think he would have been close, less that 25 HRs of Ruth.

[KingNothing13]

As much as I love Teddy, I think it would have been tough to average 40 every year in those years.

But then again, he was young, and in the prime of his career.....

Such a tough question.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Using my 35.2 HRs average Teddy would have ended up with 692 HRs. Would Teddy have played an extra season to break Ruth's record, I wonder?

In 1960, Teddy hit .316/451/.645 in 113 games. He could have come back in 1961 to try to pass Ruth.

[Barnstormer]

Good question HWR, I was just wondering about what his counting stats might have been in the Williams vs. Mantle thread.

I think RBIs are an even more impressive case. Taking your years --

age 22-147 RBIs
23-145 RBIs
27-156 RBIs
28-114 RBIs
29-127 RBIs
30-159 RBIs

For an average of 141 RBIs per year. Multiplied by the 4.85 missed seasons, you get 684 RBIs.

This would have given him a total of 2523 RBIs, putting him in first place all time by more than 200 RBIs over Hank Aaron!

He actually would have "only" needed to have 95 RBIs in each of those seasons to top Aaron.

In addition, those 4.85 equally productive seasons would have given him almost 3200 runs created, something like 400 more than Ruth who is currently no. 1 all-time.

Man, he was good.

[MasonDixon]

Didn't he also miss most of 1952 and 1953 to serve in Korea? I'd think you have to factor that in.

[Barnstormer]

Didn't he also miss most of 1952 and 1953 to serve in Korea? I'd think you have to factor that in.

We did. 3 full seasons for WWII, 1943-45, then most of 1952 and 53 in Korea, giving you 4.85 missed seasons.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Can you imagine Aaron trying to "pass" Williams while Williams was watching in the stands? That would have been very cool!

[Barnstormer]

Can you imagine Aaron trying to "pass" Williams while Williams was watching in the stands? That would have been very cool!

Wonder if Hank goes to Barry Bonds' games?

You know the other thing is that even giving him the almost 5 years back, he would have done it in 2000 fewer at-bats than Aaron. Williams is actually ahead of both Aaron and the Mick in at-bats per home run.

[CyNotSoYoung]

One of the main reasons Ted hung on at the tail end of his career is because somebody - one of the early sabremetrics folks before the term was invented, told him he had a chance to set some records - I think primarily break 500 homers. So, even though the Red Sox of the mid to late 50's were a terrible team and his old pals, Pesky, DiMaggio and Doerr were gone and he could have retired and gone fishing, Ted hung on for a few more seasons to get his 500 plus homers. No doubt, if he had been close to Ruth, as he would have been had he not served his country in 2 wars, he would have certainly hung around and passed the Babe. He wasn't only motivated by records, but let's face it, personal achievement was important to the man who wanted to be known as "the Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived."

On the other hand, Ted was often ill and missed considerable numbers of games due to illness and injury. Who knows if he would have stayed healthy enough and avoided serious injury had he played those approximately 5 additional seasons? Still, a guy who could land his crippled plane and escape from it seconds before it exploded - after consciously deciding not to eject for fear of breaking his legs - certainly had a bit of luck (and a lot of guts) on his side.

[64Cards]

Here's another thing to consider...what if there had been a DH allowed then?

Hell, if they had brought that in, say in 64, Ted may have come out of retirement.

Could have really helped Mantle, too.

[Blackout]

wasnt he only injured during the early 50s?

it should only be asked from 43-45

[cubbieinexile]

Ted stuck around to rack up the counting stats but at the same time he was a proud man and the subsequent drop in his rate stats and daily performance probably would have drove him out of the game before he got around to Babe.

I think most predictions have Ted around 30 or so homers short of Breaking Babe's record for homers. In all probabilty Ted would have needed to play until he was 43 (2 more seasons) and he had to stay healthy for almost a full seasons worth and keep his production up as well. Ted from his mid to late 30's on was getting sick all the time as well as bit more fragile.

From what I read Ted came back from the horrible 1959 season he could end on a high note and not out with a whimper. Wanted to leave on his terms so to speak, I don't think he could have kept that up for 2 more seasons. I think the fire inside him drove him to compete but again I don't think he could maintain that for 2 more seasons.

I think Ted for the most part was ready to get out of the game his last couple of years he was old, tired, and beat up and I don't really see him trudging out there and hitting .254 for a couple of seasons just to get to 715. Perhaps if somebody pissed him off, maybe.

[DTF955]

I read somewhere (SI, maybe?) that Ted was thinking of retiring in 1954, though, except for Korea - just long enough to get a good pension. (Then again, he might have said that quote while recovering from his broken arm int he All-Star Game and just been frustrated.) So if he doesn't serve in Korea, if this is accurte, he'd retire in '54.

If he plays '43-'45, then, would he want to play 20+ seasons? I don't know, but as of Korea he was hitting .348. Let's assume he hits in the .360s-.380s for 3 seasons in the '40s (maybe a tad high, but remember he also had a great season coming off of that 3-year layyoff so to compensate we can figure he might do better in '46 by 5-10 points ont he average, etc., and maybe isn't quite in the .370s each year from '43-45, so it comes out even.)

He might be looking by 1952 at a .355 career batting averge, in a a decidedly less lively era! That's in a very rare air! Woudl he retire? I don't know - remember that he was the one to promote the induction of Negro League players in 1966. I can see a scenario where Williams has played this far, and then says to himself, "Baseball's finally integrating, and I don't want to be known as someone who racked up great numbers without having to play against the best Negro pitchers." That pride issue, as you say.

So, given that thought, yes, I can see him sticking around. However, would it be enough to break the record? I don't know. As he got closer, he'd also be seeing his averge drop. He's be thinking about tht .350 mark and considering it awfully good. (He'd likely hit .350-.365 or so in 1952-3 as well.) But, he'd see a few other records, too.

Runs and RBIs were becoming quite big then, and if that same person informs him tht he has a chance to break those marks, he would stay to break those. After all, they're big stats.

However, I think with a little more baseball wear and tear, he'd be wearing down a bit more, and once he got to about 2300 runs scored and 2400 RBIs, I think he'd hang 'em up. He'd still only have about 650-670 home runs at that point, around 1960, and would likely figure he could need 3 seasons to top Ruth's mark. Not only that, but he'dstill have a slightly higher batting mark (.347, say) and the only major record he would not have would be one everyone considered unbreakable, anyway, at thaat time. I think that would satisfy him, as nobody would expect him to do it.

[Barnstormer]

He also would have destroyed the all-time walk record...when he retired he was only 40 behind Ruth, which would have taken him 2 months. Current all-time walk leader is Barry Bonds with 2300, but Teddy (2021) could have beat that with 2 more seasons.

He walked more of the time (21% over his career) than Bond or Ruth....does anybody know where to find the all-time PA/BB leaders?

But I agree with some of the posters here -- of course it's a long-shot to say that he would have had the same production in the 5 lost years, never gotten hurt, wanted to keep playing as long, etc. I do believe however that he would have had the RBI record without much effort.

By the way, is he still frozen??

[schlabotnik]

We did. 3 full seasons for WWII, 1943-45, then most of 1952 and 53 in Korea, giving you 4.85 missed seasons.

No-one as ever came out for the rest of a season ....let's say "0.15" of a season !! Why don't you give him the full 5 seasons ? And by the way, have you figured out his peak seasons in your tabulations ? Would the Boudreault-shift alter the calculation in favor and/or disfavor. Those 5 years, since they altered his health, could they be "transformed" into 2 or 3 more years of actual baseball life ?