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  • #16
    Let's look at what my 1999 Cuban Official Guide says about cubano100%'s top four third basemen of the 1990's (I'd need Morales' first name in Spanish to try and add him--this book doesn't give "Andy") It's only a career line in each case, but here goes:

    Linares 17 years, .369 average, .471 OBP, .655 slugging, 3.62 successful plays made per 9 defensive innings. Until he went to Japan a few years ago, everything I'd read about him was positive. I'm sure he's not this good, but he could still go down a fair ways and be a heck of a player. Can't say much about that defensive number for a third baseman, but I thought I'd include it since someone probably can.

    Pierre 14 years, .298 average, .384 OBP, .535 slugging, 3.67 successful plays per 9 defensive innings. These are good numbers, but if Cuban ball is even a little lower than major league quality, he'd go to just another third baseman fairly quickly. If the Cuban ball is below AAA, his career numbers aren't imposing, though I don't know at what age he started, and how he performed over that career. Also, I don't know how many years he had left at the point the book came out.

    Vargas 19 years, .321 average, .394 OBP, .433 slugging, 3.64 successful plays per 9 defensive innings. At these numbers, a nice player, though not a lot of power. The key for him is how his OBP would hold up at a major league level. A 40 point drop would make him good, but not much more, a sixty point drop would likely make him very ordinary, and much more than that, he'd ride the pine or play in the minors. Again, these are career numbers only, so perhaps he'd have played 14-15 years but been as good as these numbers in that time (the difference in quality of play cancelled out by losing some struggling early years).

    Caldes 12 years, .289 average, .347 OBP, .476 slugging, 3.75 successful plays per 9 defensive innings. If he met these numbers, he'd be fine--but any drop off would start to hurt him fairly quickly.

    The only clear conclusion I can reach is that except for Linares, the difference between Cuban ball and the majors would make a huge difference in what we could expect these guys to produce. Linares likely would have been a star unless the difference between the two is huge. This is a classic example of why we want solid evidence on exactly how good Cuban ball under Castro really has been in order to fairly appraise these guys. Even what I've posted is terribly incomplete--a single career line without even knowing their dates of birth. For all I know, Caldes could have been in his prime in 1999 after entering the game as a 16 year old.

    Maybe someone can do something with the international competition, especially if we had season by season data in Cuba, plus accurate dates of birth. Some day, that will be available, but as far as I know today, it isn't in the States. That's a shame.

    Jim Albright
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by jalbright
      Let's look at what my 1999 Cuban Official Guide says about cubano100%'s top four third basemen of the 1990's (I'd need Morales' first name in Spanish to try and add him--this book doesn't give "Andy") It's only a career line in each case, but here goes:

      Linares 17 years, .369 average, .471 OBP, .655 slugging, 3.62 successful plays made per 9 defensive innings. Until he went to Japan a few years ago, everything I'd read about him was positive. I'm sure he's not this good, but he could still go down a fair ways and be a heck of a player. Can't say much about that defensive number for a third baseman, but I thought I'd include it since someone probably can.

      Pierre 14 years, .298 average, .384 OBP, .535 slugging, 3.67 successful plays per 9 defensive innings. These are good numbers, but if Cuban ball is even a little lower than major league quality, he'd go to just another third baseman fairly quickly. If the Cuban ball is below AAA, his career numbers aren't imposing, though I don't know at what age he started, and how he performed over that career. Also, I don't know how many years he had left at the point the book came out.

      Vargas 19 years, .321 average, .394 OBP, .433 slugging, 3.64 successful plays per 9 defensive innings. At these numbers, a nice player, though not a lot of power. The key for him is how his OBP would hold up at a major league level. A 40 point drop would make him good, but not much more, a sixty point drop would likely make him very ordinary, and much more than that, he'd ride the pine or play in the minors. Again, these are career numbers only, so perhaps he'd have played 14-15 years but been as good as these numbers in that time (the difference in quality of play cancelled out by losing some struggling early years).

      Caldes 12 years, .289 average, .347 OBP, .476 slugging, 3.75 successful plays per 9 defensive innings. If he met these numbers, he'd be fine--but any drop off would start to hurt him fairly quickly.

      The only clear conclusion I can reach is that except for Linares, the difference between Cuban ball and the majors would make a huge difference in what we could expect these guys to produce. Linares likely would have been a star unless the difference between the two is huge. This is a classic example of why we want solid evidence on exactly how good Cuban ball under Castro really has been in order to fairly appraise these guys. Even what I've posted is terribly incomplete--a single career line without even knowing their dates of birth. For all I know, Caldes could have been in his prime in 1999 after entering the game as a 16 year old.

      Maybe someone can do something with the international competition, especially if we had season by season data in Cuba, plus accurate dates of birth. Some day, that will be available, but as far as I know today, it isn't in the States. That's a shame.

      Jim Albright
      Good piece of work. I have one of those Cuban baseball guides. I will check on the year. I think is from 2003.

      Major League baseball rates leagues around the world specially those leagues they pay for like the Mexican Summer League. The Mexican Summer League has 16 teams. All the good Mexican players are in the majors. The best Mexican prospects are in the US based minor leagues. So one can assume that the players back in Mexico are not the best ones. Does anyone disagree on this?

      Now, Major Leagues official have given a AAA level to the Mexican Summer League.

      Since 2000, Mexico has produced 15 major leaguers. In constrast, Cuba has produced 11. By now, everybody should know that Cuban players can not come freely to the USA. Does anyone disagree on this?

      Baseball was invented in the USA. Short after, Cubans were playing baseball. We are the second country in the world that had baseball unless somebody prove me otherwise. Baseball is Cuba's main sport. Soccer is Mexico's main sport.

      If the Mexican Summer League is AAA. What is the level of the Cuban National League?

      Note: Cuban National League has 16 teams. The best Cuban players stay back home except those that have defected. Cuban kids are sent to special schools as early as 9 or 10 years old to study and play whatever sport they are in. This goes on until they finish 12 grade and make the National League or don't make it. Every province have these schools in Cuba. There is even one of this schools for every age level(Primary, middle, and high schools) in Havana where the top prospects in Cuba attend. This is in addition of all the others spread among provinces.

      Does it sound like baseball academies run by the Cubans? Would MLB teams love to go to Cuba and check these players?



      How are Mexican baseball players found? Does anyone knows?




      Soon, Major League Baseball will decide a level for the new Nicaraguan Winter League. It is only 2 years old. In Nicaragua, there was a Winter League that desapeared in the 50ths. I bet you that Major League baseball will rate this league at least an A level. A AA rating would not surprise me either.

      I will suffer a heart attack if someone tells me now even Nicaragua has a stronger league that Cuba. What anything is possible at this point....Is it?


      Jim,

      Under normal conditions, Linares and Pierre would have been stars in the major.

      Caldes career was cut short when he died in a car accident.

      Comment


      • #18
        How about Cuban 2bs in the 1990s?

        Player series Ave Slg H 2b 3b Hr


        Antonio Pacheco 22 334 525 2356 366 63 284
        Yobal Duenas 14 321 477 1615 282 46 136
        Enrique Diaz 19 306 384 1784 211 84 26
        Oscar Macias 18 310 513 1960 319 50 286
        Juan Padilla(gold glover) 17 307 447 1914 293 68 149



        Can anyone think of somebody else?
        Last edited by Cubano100%; 12-08-2005, 01:19 AM.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Cubano100%
          Good piece of work. I have one of those Cuban baseball guides. I will check on the year. I think is from 2003.
          .........
          Jim,

          Under normal conditions, Linares and Pierre would have been stars in the major.

          Caldes career was cut short when he died in a car accident.
          Thank you. If you have a more recent guide than mine (1999):
          1) where did you get it?
          2) is it still just career totals (plus the most recent season and annual league leaders)?
          3) Why don't you post some of the info I did on the second basemen you listed, since yours is more current? If you need help calculating OBP or successful chances per 9 defensive innings, I'll be glad to help. If you don't have a more recent guide, I'll do the numbers on those guys.

          The only question I have about Linares is whether he would have crossed the line of being a star to being a Hall of Famer. I tend to think he would have, but that is still in question in my mind. I think it likely Pierre could have started in the majors. Beyond that, I'm not convinced. That's not to say you aren't right, I just don't have sufficient proof of it yet.

          Jim Albright
          Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
          Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
          A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by jalbright
            Thank you. If you have a more recent guide than mine (1999):
            1) where did you get it?
            2) is it still just career totals (plus the most recent season and annual league leaders)?
            3) Why don't you post some of the info I did on the second basemen you listed, since yours is more current? If you need help calculating OBP or successful chances per 9 defensive innings, I'll be glad to help. If you don't have a more recent guide, I'll do the numbers on those guys.

            The only question I have about Linares is whether he would have crossed the line of being a star to being a Hall of Famer. I tend to think he would have, but that is still in question in my mind. I think it likely Pierre could have started in the majors. Beyond that, I'm not convinced. That's not to say you aren't right, I just don't have sufficient proof of it yet.

            Jim Albright
            Jim:

            The best players from countries with a lot of baseball tradition certainly have a chance to make it. Pierre is a very strong player. Cuban baseball players now are not protected very well. They travel in buses not planes. Pitchers are overused. There are a lot of day games where players are exposed to a lot of heat. Certainly, Cuban players are not properties. In professional baseball, owners protect their players.
            So I do believe Pierre would have been a starting 3B in the majors. The key is to come early so you can get use to USA (language, culture, food, etc). Look, Yuniesky Betancourt is not an offensive thread. He is in the ML because his glove. If he can hit 270, he will be a major leaguer for a long time. Antonio Pacheco, Yobal Duenas, and Oscar Macias were better hitter than him. These are 2bs but Betancourt use to play 2B for Villa Clara Oranges. If he is in the majors, the other 3 certainly would have made it at some point. Pacheco hit with power. He would have been like Jeff Kent. Duenas was like Alfonso Soriano. However, he could not hit in the playoff when I was there. Macias arrived last year in Miami. He is 40 years old now.

            Actually, I found a source where all stats for Cuban players are kept. Even defectors stats are there. In the past, defectors records were wiped out from the record books. I am preparing stats for the pitchers. As I suspected, Livan and Baez had a better ERA in the USA than in Cuba. The older pitchers are the opposite. They left the best years in Cuba. As for Jose Contreras VS Norge Luis Vera, their stats are similar. When Contreras defected, the Cuban authorities were saying than Vera was better than Contreras.

            Comment


            • #21
              What do the stats tell us?

              Jim:

              There are people in the USA media that consider the Cuban National League an A league. Despite leaving their best years in Cuba, pitchers stats in the Cuban national League and MLB do not show that big of a gap. ERA for older pitchers are higher in the ML than in Cuba. Younger pitchers have better numbers in the USA than in Cuba. Some older pitchers have a lower opponent bating average in the USA than in Cuba.

              What do you think? Remember, many older players leave their best years in Cuba. Once they defect, they have to deal with the extra stuff that Cuban defectors must endure. Ex: not having their families with them.

              To be honest with you, I thought I would see a major gap between their Cuban and USA stats. Only Arocha, Fernandez and Prieto have a big difference in stats from one league to another. Notice, the number of series some played in Cuba. You also need to add the time that they were spending to gain legal status in another country or USA. So many came over 30 years old. That is why some lasted 4 or 5 years in the ML.

              There is no way the Cuban National League is an A league.
              Why do we have to wait for MLB to label our league? If all these older pitcher would have come earlier in their careers, they would have had better numbers.

              I am telling you my friend, we got a lot of good players back home. Castro does not want defectors to have success. That's why he blackmails them and retain their families.

              Tell me who has the best splitter or forkball in the game? If your anwser if someone else than Contreras that is fine. But he must be next in line. Norge Vera would have been another solid starter in the majors. He also throws forkballs and has better control than Contreras.

              My favorite was Lazaro Valle. He allowed 3 broken bats single to a Puerto Rican team that had Juan Gonzalez, Javy Lopez, Carlos Baerga, Roberto Alomar and Edgar Martinez.

              Imagine that Rene Arocha, Orlando Hernandez and Lazaro Valle were starters in their primes for the Industriales Lions at the same time. That was my team
              back home.



              Players Series W L ERA IP K BB Win % Opp. Ave

              Cuban Series Stats

              Rene Arocha 11 104 72 3.18 1412.2 1038 544 0.591 239

              Rolando Arrojo 13 154 98 3.5 2027.2 1138 442 0.611 268

              Danys Baez 2 6 5 4.7 122.2 92 58 0.545 271

              Jose Contreras 10 117 50 2.82 1473 1346 514 0.701 243

              Orlando Hernandez 10 126 47 3.05 1514.1 1211 455 0.728 238

              Livan Hernandez 3 27 16 4.57 335 311 127 0.628 276

              Osvaldo Fernandez 11 70 42 3.12 943 778 358 0.625 240

              Ariel Prieto 10 67 66 4.47 1043.1 860 525 0.504 271

              Alain Soler 5 24 9 3.53 270.1 235 109 0.727 239

              Raul Valdez 6 52 58 3.61 914.2 729 308 0.473 268

              Norge Luis Vera 11 122 47 2.55 1479 922 351 0.722 248

              Lazaro Valle 15 138 73 3.39 1740 1351 613 0.654 239

              The average ERA in Cuba for those that made it to the Majors is 3.67. The average opponent bating average is 255.75

              MLB Stats

              Rene Arocha 4 18 17 4.11 331 190 75 0.514 282

              Rolando Arrojo 6 40 42 4.55 700 512 255 0.488 267

              Danys Baez 5 26 31 3.69 431.2 351 184 0.456 239

              Jose Contreras 4 35 18 4.28 446 376 189 0.66 236

              Orlando Hernandez 7 70 49 4.11 1004.2 794 354 0.588 242

              Livan Hernandez 11 110 104 4.11 1950.2 1328 673 0.514 274

              Ariel Prieto 6 15 24 4.85 352 231 176 0.385 294

              Osvaldo Fernandez 4 19 26 4.93 387 208 136 0.422 287

              Alain Soler
              Raul Valdez
              The average ERA in the Major Leagues is 4.32. The average opponent bating average is 265.13
              Last edited by Cubano100%; 12-03-2005, 04:24 PM.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Cubano100%
                Let's go Cuban nation?

                I am glad you came on board. Go to the World Baseball Classic thread and read all the comments. I have been fighting the following people alone: a Mexican fan, Honus Warner, Ichiro51, a Venezuelan fan and in a less degree the Licey Fan.

                I started reading their comments and they don't give us a chance to do anything in the BWC next year. I know Castro is not going to send a team. But they do not know anything about Cuban baseball.
                The main reason I'm in this forum, is first of all, to learn more about international baseball, and second, to help you guys know a bit more inside info in the dominican league, since I have more access to the information than you guys

                I've never said that Cuba doesn't stand a chance in the WBC. I just believe that they won't be cruising as they do in amateur competitions... And if you say that the dominicans, venezuelans, japaneses and americans teams (and puerto rico to a lesser degree right now) are the main contenders BASED ON THEIR MLB TALENT you are just blind...

                The truth is that until we see the actual matchups, and i repeat ACTUAL AND REAL MATCHUPS (not simulations) between the teams, we'll never now how to compare the stats...

                I know is a short tournament, so anything can happen, but then again, cuban dominance on the international spotlight's been in short tournaments (IBAF World Cup, Olympics, Panam Games). Definetly, even if is just for couple of games, we'll get a better idea of what's happening in Cuba after this tournament.

                You seem as you definetly now all your stuff very well, and I've learned a lot with your posts... Is just that to me it seems that you want to FORCE people to agree with you that Cuba is gonna "rock" the WBC (sometimes actually changing subjects of baseball, like that comparison between dominican and cuban beaches, which I saw completely out of line and out of the subject).

                It's better if you make your point, and respect the opinions of the others, without trying to mock them or take it personal... We all learn of each other
                Licey campeón today and always!

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Licey Fan
                  The main reason I'm in this forum, is first of all, to learn more about international baseball, and second, to help you guys know a bit more inside info in the dominican league, since I have more access to the information than you guys

                  I've never said that Cuba doesn't stand a chance in the WBC. I just believe that they won't be cruising as they do in amateur competitions... And if you say that the dominicans, venezuelans, japaneses and americans teams (and puerto rico to a lesser degree right now) are the main contenders BASED ON THEIR MLB TALENT you are just blind...

                  The truth is that until we see the actual matchups, and i repeat ACTUAL AND REAL MATCHUPS (not simulations) between the teams, we'll never now how to compare the stats...

                  I know is a short tournament, so anything can happen, but then again, cuban dominance on the international spotlight's been in short tournaments (IBAF World Cup, Olympics, Panam Games). Definetly, even if is just for couple of games, we'll get a better idea of what's happening in Cuba after this tournament.

                  You seem as you definetly now all your stuff very well, and I've learned a lot with your posts... Is just that to me it seems that you want to FORCE people to agree with you that Cuba is gonna "rock" the WBC (sometimes actually changing subjects of baseball, like that comparison between dominican and cuban beaches, which I saw completely out of line and out of the subject).

                  It's better if you make your point, and respect the opinions of the others, without trying to mock them or take it personal... We all learn of each other
                  Dominican fan:

                  I despise people that do not go by facts. Because Cuba does not have many ML players now that does not mean we are not good. People should know that. I never said that Cuba would dominate. I just said that Cuba has a good chance as many other countries to win. I also said that teams with good pitching and defense have a better chance to win it. I also listed the teams I consider the favorites: USA, Venezuela, Japan, Dominican and Cuba. Didn't I? See, I have taken my time to learn about baseball around the world. Others could have done the same.

                  Nobody can tell me that Mexico has more tradition in baseball than Cuba. Nobody can tell me that Japan has been playing baseball as long as Cuba when their first team was formed 30 years after our professional league. Nobody can tell me that the negro leagues were that bad when you had fewer teams than the majors. You also had black americans, white and black cubans, white and black puertoricans and probably mexicans and dominican playing in the negro leagues. In contrast, the early major leagues had only white americans and 3 or 4 cubans playing in the majors. Major league teams went to Cuba and were beaten badly too.
                  Nobody can deny that Cuban players endure more stuff outside baseball than other players. Despite this, they have hold their ground. In 2005, look for saves, wins, era, ip and Opponent ave and tell me wether or not the Cubans have hold their grounds against other fellow latin players. Only you can argue that Santana, Martinez are better than them. How long have Santana and Martinez been in the USA? Don't you think that under normal conditions, Cuba would have many major leagues. When we were able to compete on equal terms, no other country besides the USA had more players in the majors than Cuba.
                  Nobody can tell me that we had an steroid problem not only in the ML but also in the Dominican.

                  Cuba not only have beaten mediocre teams but also professional teams.

                  Even if Cuba beat the Dominican and the Venezuelan teams, that does not mean anything. One or two games are nothing. One BWC means nothing. Now, if Cuba gets blownout by everybody, then you can say that Cuba is not that great. But I bet you that will not happen. Good teams won't get blownout. Though Cuba has beaten professional teams, you guys always say that Cuba have beaten mediocre teams. So if Cuba does not win the BWC, then I can say you beat a mediocre Cuban team without its major leaguers.

                  Cuban players are scrutinize more than others. Not all Cuban defectors are good players. Many came old and left the best years back home. That is a fact. The only fair comparison someone can make is between Cuban and Japanese players. Both group of players leave their best years back home and had to get used to the new country quickly. Cubans unlike others can not bring their families nor go back home. Don't you think that affects their performance. This is my bigger problem with all of you.

                  Nobody can tell me that the Cuban National League is A ball and the Mexican summer league is AAA, as well as all latin winter balls.

                  You or anyone can think whatever you please, I just happen to strongly disagree.

                  As for my reference to the beaches, i am sure you wrote something out place about Cuba. You people tend to forget who was the tourist mecca. When I see people trashing my country without any knowledge of it, then I put them in their place. That is why I brought it.

                  And if you want, you can PM me so we can discuss it even further. This is a thread for Cuban Baseball Structure. So your comment is out place. PM me if you want ot discuss more stuff.

                  If Chavez abolish professional baseball, does that mean Venezuela won't have good players anymore?

                  Of course, nooooo.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Cubano100%
                    Dominican fan:

                    I despise people that do not go by facts. Because Cuba does not have many ML players now that does not mean we are not good. People should know that. I never said that Cuba would dominate. I just said that Cuba has a good chance as many other countries to win. I also said that teams with good pitching and defense have a better chance to win it. I also listed the teams I consider the favorites: USA, Venezuela, Japan, Dominican and Cuba. Didn't I? See, I have taken my time to learn about baseball around the world. Others could have done the same.
                    This are my comments posted on september 17, on the http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=33572 World Classic Baseball Thread, and I Quote:

                    "cubano:

                    Definetly Cuba has a great team... but don't count out the Dominican Rep. yet!! Even though USA is the favorite, DR is close second in the odds... I think Cuba vs. DR'd be a great matchup, but I don't think that Cuba beating us it'll be as easy as you put it...

                    (Sin no entiendes, preguntame, que soy dominicano, y te hablo en español)"

                    Originally posted by Cubano100%
                    Nobody can tell me that Mexico has more tradition in baseball than Cuba.
                    I agree with you with that... I haven't mentioned Mexico anywhere


                    Originally posted by Cubano100%
                    Nobody can tell me that the Cuban National League is A ball and the Mexican summer league is AAA, as well as all latin winter balls.

                    You or anyone can think whatever you please, I just happen to strongly disagree.
                    Did you see the thread on the quality of the leagues?? Where did I put the cuban super league?? Mexico Summer Ball's not AAA. The Only reason they're listed as so is because the Diablos Rojos de Mexico are the AAA affiliate of the Padres of San Diego... Not the whole league, but some teams of it... The other winter leagues around the caribbean are AA level... So I don't see where's the discussion...

                    Originally posted by Cubano100%
                    As for my reference to the beaches, i am sure you wrote something out place about Cuba. You people tend to forget who was the tourist mecca. When I see people trashing my country without any knowledge of it, then I put them in their place. That is why I brought it.
                    OK... so let's quote my post, and then your reply... Totally out of line

                    Originally posted by Licey Fan

                    Quote:
                    Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules
                    Well, because there is an American economic embargo against Cuba right now.

                    I see a dominican team coming first... And we already saw the expos playing in puerto rico
                    Originally posted by Cubano100%
                    Dictators come and go (Trujillo in Dominican Republic: Franco in Spain; Pinochet in Chile; Hitler in Germany; Mussoulini in Italy). History shows that these countries learned from their past mistakes. Mexico would be an ideal candidate to have a MLB team right now. The problem is the distance MLB team have to travel to play there as well as the Mexican team. They can pick a city in Mexico close to California and place a team there. The problem with Mexico is the security and the crime rate. They have enough people to fill the stadium though the Soccer league is number one.
                    The Dominican Republic will have no chance of having a MLB team. The economy is not good compare to Mexico, Puerto Rico or a future free Cuba. One their primary industry is tourism and I"ll assure you that when Cuba becomes free their tourism as well as other Caribbean countries is going to take a hit. Cuba is bigger and has better and larger beaches. It has a great history and despite all the animosity with the USA, it remains a favoritive for Americans. Without Americans traveling to Cuba, Cuba received as many tourist as the Dominican Republic!!!!! The Cubans in the USA will not travel to the Dominican Republic as much as they do now. They certainly will go to Cuba. Between Miami and Cuba trade will flourish. USA will help Cuba as well as European Union and Asia. Cuba will prosper and the population will growth again. Where are you going to find more talent? Puerto Rico has 4.5 million people; Dominican Republic has 11 million people; Cuba has 11 million right now. Cuba is way bigger than those two countries combined. The answer is clearly Cuba. Cuba has a well structured league and has academies for kids since they are 10 years old. The only thing they lack is money due to Comunism and the US sactions. Cuba also send coaches to other countries to teach other sports. Ex: The Dominican female volleyball team is very good right now thanks to the Cubans.

                    Havana has 2 million people now and baseball is number one by far in Cuba.
                    I travel to many places now but when Castro is gone, I will only travel to Cuba. I have helped other countries too much already.
                    Be the judge... OK, about this:

                    Originally posted by Cubano100%
                    See, I have taken my time to learn about baseball around the world. Others could have done the same.
                    Your arrogance is overwhelming... I'll reply to this just with the same 1st paragraph of my previous post


                    Originally posted by LiceyFan
                    The main reason I'm in this forum, is first of all, to learn more about international baseball, and second, to help you guys know a bit more inside info in the dominican league, since I have more access to the information than you guys
                    Sorry, not all of us were born knowing everything... That said, I'll cut this discussion (from my side) right now... Good luck in the cup, any other line is just guesses that we'll never now until we see the actual matchups...

                    And sorry I didn't PM you, but you didn't PM me to reply to this... You can do that now if you want
                    Last edited by Licey Fan; 12-03-2005, 05:31 PM.
                    Licey campeón today and always!

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Cubano100%
                      Jim:

                      There are people in the USA media that consider the Cuban National League an A league. Despite leaving their best years in Cuba, pitchers stats in the Cuban national League and MLB do not show that big of a gap. ERA for older pitchers are higher in the ML than in Cuba. Younger pitchers have better numbers in the USA than in Cuba. Some older pitchers have a lower opponent bating average in the USA than in Cuba.

                      What do you think? Remember, many older players leave their best years in Cuba. Once they defect, they have to deal with the extra stuff that Cuban defectors must endure. Ex: not having their families with them.

                      To be honest with you, I thought I would see a major gap between their Cuban and USA stats. Only Arocha, Fernandez and Prieto have a big difference in stats from one league to another. Notice, the number of series some played in Cuba. You also need to add the time that they were spending to gain legal status in another country or USA. So many came over 30 years old. That is why some lasted 4 or 5 years in the ML.

                      There is no way the Cuban National League is an A league.
                      Why do we have to wait for MLB to label our league? If all these older pitcher would have come earlier in their careers, they would have had better numbers.

                      I am telling you my friend, we got a lot of good players back home. Castro does not want defectors to have success. That's why he blackmails them and retain their families.

                      Tell me who has the best splitter or forkball in the game? If your anwser if someone else than Contreras that is fine. But he must be next in line. Norge Vera would have been another solid starter in the majors. He also throws forkballs and has better control than Contreras.

                      My favorite was Lazaro Valle. He allowed 3 broken bats single to a Puerto Rican team that had Juan Gonzalez, Javy Lopez, Carlos Baerga, Roberto Alomar and Edgar Martinez.

                      Imagine that Rene Arocha, Orlando Hernandez and Lazaro Valle were starters in their primes for the Industriales Lions at the same time. That was my team
                      back home.



                      Players Series W L ERA IP K BB Win % Opp. Ave

                      Cuban Series Stats

                      Rene Arocha 11 104 72 3.18 1412.2 1038 544 0.591 239

                      Rolando Arrojo 13 154 98 3.5 2027.2 1138 442 0.611 268

                      Danys Baez 2 6 5 4.7 122.2 92 58 0.545 271

                      Jose Contreras 10 117 50 2.82 1473 1346 514 0.701 243

                      Orlando Hernandez 10 126 47 3.05 1514.1 1211 455 0.728 238

                      Livan Hernandez 3 27 16 4.57 335 311 127 0.628 276

                      Osvaldo Fernandez 11 70 42 3.12 943 778 358 0.625 240

                      Ariel Prieto 10 67 66 4.47 1043.1 860 525 0.504 271

                      Alain Soler 5 24 9 3.53 270.1 235 109 0.727 239

                      Raul Valdez 6 52 58 3.61 914.2 729 308 0.473 268

                      Norge Luis Vera 11 122 47 2.55 1479 922 351 0.722 248

                      Lazaro Valle 15 138 73 3.39 1740 1351 613 0.654 239

                      The average ERA in Cuba for those that made it to the Majors is 3.67. The average opponent bating average is 255.75

                      MLB Stats

                      Rene Arocha 4 18 17 4.11 331 190 75 0.514 282

                      Rolando Arrojo 6 40 42 4.55 700 512 255 0.488 267

                      Danys Baez 5 26 31 3.69 431.2 351 184 0.456 239

                      Jose Contreras 4 35 18 4.28 446 376 189 0.66 236

                      Orlando Hernandez 7 70 49 4.11 1004.2 794 354 0.588 242

                      Livan Hernandez 11 110 104 4.11 1950.2 1328 673 0.514 274

                      Ariel Prieto 6 15 24 4.85 352 231 176 0.385 294

                      Osvaldo Fernandez 4 19 26 4.93 387 208 136 0.422 287

                      Alain Soler
                      Raul Valdez
                      The average ERA in the Major Leagues is 4.32. The average opponent bating average is 265.13

                      A) I am not waiting for anyone to "label" the quality of Cuban ball. What I want are facts like these. It would be better to match innings in the data given so we don't inadvertently distort the data one way or another by how a given player performed in one place or the other. The ERA difference is fairly substantial (15+% higher in the majors). This certainly implies that Cuban ball at the level of the data provided isn't as high on average as the majors. That doesn't mean that the best of Cuban players wouldn't be stars or even Hall of Famers. Indeed, because the cream of Cuban baseball has largely been kept in Cuba, some of Cuba's players from today and the recent past likely are of that quality. The island produced a nice proportion of such players before Castro, and I doubt that with the sports machine the communists installed that it would have completely ceased producing such talents.

                      I'm aware of the problems defectors face--that's why it would be nice if we could confirm our analysis of the defectors with studies of international play. But we have to dig up the evidence and once it is as complete as reasonably possible, we have to see where that evidence points us.

                      Jim Albright
                      Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                      Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                      A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by jalbright
                        A) I am not waiting for anyone to "label" the quality of Cuban ball. What I want are facts like these. It would be better to match innings in the data given so we don't inadvertently distort the data one way or another by how a given player performed in one place or the other. The ERA difference is fairly substantial (15+% higher in the majors). This certainly implies that Cuban ball at the level of the data provided isn't as high on average as the majors. That doesn't mean that the best of Cuban players wouldn't be stars or even Hall of Famers. Indeed, because the cream of Cuban baseball has largely been kept in Cuba, some of Cuba's players from today and the recent past likely are of that quality. The island produced a nice proportion of such players before Castro, and I doubt that with the sports machine the communists installed that it would have completely ceased producing such talents.

                        I'm aware of the problems defectors face--that's why it would be nice if we could confirm our analysis of the defectors with studies of international play. But we have to dig up the evidence and once it is as complete as reasonably possible, we have to see where that evidence points us.

                        Jim Albright

                        Jim: Did you notice that Danys Baez and Livan Hernandez have a better ERA in the USA than Cuba? They did not leave their best years in Cuba. They have enjoyed their best years in the USA. So that should tell us something.
                        How about opponent batting average stats for every one?

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          I expect comments related to the Thread, please.

                          Originally posted by Licey Fan
                          This are my comments posted on september 17, on the http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=33572 World Classic Baseball Thread, and I Quote:

                          "cubano:

                          Definetly Cuba has a great team... but don't count out the Dominican Rep. yet!! Even though USA is the favorite, DR is close second in the odds... I think Cuba vs. DR'd be a great matchup, but I don't think that Cuba beating us it'll be as easy as you put it...

                          (Sin no entiendes, preguntame, que soy dominicano, y te hablo en español)"

                          Cubano100%: I have been posting in what language...........French

                          I agree with you with that... I haven't mentioned Mexico anywhere




                          Did you see the thread on the quality of the leagues?? Where did I put the cuban super league?? Mexico Summer Ball's not AAA. The Only reason they're listed as so is because the Diablos Rojos de Mexico are the AAA affiliate of the Padres of San Diego... Not the whole league, but some teams of it... The other winter leagues around the caribbean are AA level... So I don't see where's the discussion...

                          You comments were right. I would have done the same if all Dominican players play in the Dominican and the Cubans come to the USA. This is a no brainer but some people think otherwise.

                          OK... so let's quote my post, and then your reply... Totally out of line





                          Be the judge... OK, about this:



                          Your arrogance is overwhelming... I'll reply to this just with the same 1st paragraph of my previous post.

                          I came from my country without any knowledge about professional baseball in other countries. Castro does not allow free information. You and the others have had access to free information. I decided to educate myself. You can do the same.
                          I sumed up my main points to you. You have stayed out wisely. You got no economy. Read the "World Almanac", please.[/SIZE]
                          I PM you on this. Don't dream! No Latin countries have what it takes to land a team?[/SIZE]

                          Sorry, not all of us were born knowing everything... That said, I'll cut this discussion (from my side) right now... Good luck in the cup, any other line is just guesses that we'll never now until we see the actual matchups...



                          And sorry I didn't PM you, but you didn't PM me to reply to this... You can do that now if you want
                          I just PM you, brother. Read the bold fonts above.

                          If Cuba loses, I can say that our professional players did not play. In addition, Castro did not include players that may defect in the team. Others have used other excuses in the past when they have lost. So we can use our excuses too for the first time.
                          Last edited by Cubano100%; 12-06-2005, 04:25 AM.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            The fact a couple of guys did better from a statistical standpoint means virtually nothing. The BA's against are less of a story than ERA. I'd just guess walk and/or power rates are up more substantially to create that 15%difference in ERA. Where available, runs are the preferred measure.

                            Beyond that, I've learned not to judge hitters by the conversion factors of pitchers or vice versa. For instance, if the parks are small, pitchers can gain a benefit by moving to larger major league parks. That means hitters get a double dose of bad news, though (i.e. leaving both a weaker league and smaller ballparks to go to a tougher league with bigger ballparks). The example may or may not apply to Cuba, but it illustrates the point I'm making. It is my understanding that in Cuba they use aluminum bats. Is that correct? When did it start? Certainly, that might be a factor which helps hitters in Cuba.

                            I'm not trying to knock Cuban ball nor build it up. I'm seeking facts and to interpret those facts as accurately as possible. So far, I haven't seen anything which disproves either your contentions or Clay Davenport's about the quality of Cuban ball.

                            Jim Albright
                            Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                            Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                            A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by jalbright
                              The fact a couple of guys did better from a statistical standpoint means virtually nothing. The BA's against are less of a story than ERA. I'd just guess walk and/or power rates are up more substantially to create that 15%difference in ERA. Where available, runs are the preferred measure.

                              Beyond that, I've learned not to judge hitters by the conversion factors of pitchers or vice versa. For instance, if the parks are small, pitchers can gain a benefit by moving to larger major league parks. That means hitters get a double dose of bad news, though (i.e. leaving both a weaker league and smaller ballparks to go to a tougher league with bigger ballparks). The example may or may not apply to Cuba, but it illustrates the point I'm making. It is my understanding that in Cuba they use aluminum bats. Is that correct? When did it start? Certainly, that might be a factor which helps hitters in Cuba.

                              I'm not trying to knock Cuban ball nor build it up. I'm seeking facts and to interpret those facts as accurately as possible. So far, I haven't seen anything which disproves either your contentions or Clay Davenport's about the quality of Cuban ball.

                              Jim Albright
                              Cuba does not use aluminum bats now. Since international tournaments implemented the wooden bat, Cubans have been using it. I do not know the exact time, but I would estimate 8 years. At the begining of the revolution, we still used the wooden bats.

                              I want you to use your common sense. Do you believe that the Mexican Summer League is AAA? If you agree with Major League baseball, then how would you rate the Cuban National League?
                              All the good Mexican players are in the majors or US minor leagues. Right?

                              Have you checked how many Mexicans and Cubans are in the majors now? I have not, but I will.

                              How come so many Cuban defectors start above A ball after defecting?

                              I am not saying the Cuban National league is the ML, but it sure is not an A ball. The Cuban Super league is close to the majors.

                              We will see how the ML rate the Nicaraguan winter league. If it is above A, I will get a heart attack.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Cubano100%
                                Cuba does not use aluminum bats now. Since international tournaments implemented the wooden bat, Cubans have been using it. I do not know the exact time, but I would estimate 8 years. At the begining of the revolution, we still used the wooden bats.

                                I want you to use your common sense. Do you believe that the Mexican Summer League is AAA? If you agree with Major League baseball, then how would you rate the Cuban National League?
                                All the good Mexican players are in the majors or US minor leagues. Right?

                                Have you checked how many Mexicans and Cubans are in the majors now? I have not, but I will.

                                How come so many Cuban defectors start above A ball after defecting?

                                I am not saying the Cuban National league is the ML, but it sure is not an A ball. The Cuban Super league is close to the majors.

                                We will see how the ML rate the Nicaraguan winter league. If it is above A, I will get a heart attack.
                                This is a ridiculous statement. A four team league that plays just 30 games is not really a league. That's not enough teams or games. The Cuban Super League is essentially four all-star teams with all the top talent concentrated on four teams. What if the majors created a Super Major League with just four teams? That would be an incredible amount of talent on just four teams. But it wouldn't really be league.
                                Last edited by Honus Wagner Rules; 12-04-2005, 08:08 PM.
                                Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                                Comment

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