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Daisuke Matsuzaka

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Agente Libre
    Those numbers are interesting but it looks like there is almost no projected dropoff in K/IP or in HR/IP from Japan to MLB, which seems counterintuitive. I'll have to take a look at other Japanese pitchers who made the jump from Japan to MLB.
    Somebody else emailed me about this, and there is an error. I based IP on how many batters the pitcher was projected to face, and since we get a projection that has a higher rate of walks and hits, the IP is reduced. It certainly has the impact you describe on K/IP, but it shouldn't cause the issue you describe in HR/IP. However, on balance, I think this error yields too conservative a projection overall, as the reduction in IP works against the pitchers in BB/IP and H/IP. Of course, the individual stats are out of whack, and I have to decide the best way to handle it. Then I've got a lot of work to straighten out.

    Another complicating factor, but one which I can't eliminate from a projection is the impact of rounding.
    Last edited by jalbright; 10-21-2006, 01:38 PM.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

    Comment


    • #17
      Here's an article from Yahoo Sports which details Matsuzaka's extreme workload (among other things): http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_yl...=tsn&type=lgns

      Also, here's a Wikipedia answer to the timeline of the posting process: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posting_system

      Jim Albright
      Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
      Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
      A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

      Comment


      • #18
        Thanks, Jim.

        Do you know when the posting process officially starts? I've heard Nov. 1 but not sure.

        According to the article, the posting phase lasts 40 days, followed by up to 30 days for contract negotiations. If correct, that could mean Matsuzaka isn't under MLB contract until January 2007.

        Comment


        • #19
          I can't vouch for the Wikipedia info without checking who put that up, but it sounds about right. November 1 is what I've heard, but I haven't seen anything official on that. However, I can't imagine the date would come before that, given that both the Japan Series and the World Series have just begun. For good reason, they don't like this between season stuff to overshadow the championship deciding series.

          Jim Albright
          Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
          Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
          A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

          Comment


          • #20
            Now for the promised revision to the projection:

            Code:
            Year	G	W	L	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	K	R	ER	ERA
            2002	16	4	4	0	85.00	75	19	19	80	43	37	3.97
            2003	34	13	10	0	224.33	205	19	78	220	111	97	3.89
            2004	28	9	7	0	177.67	166	11	55	137	88	77	3.88
            2005	33	17	10	0	250.67	216	19	61	233	105	90	3.22
            2006	29	15	7	0	217.33	173	19	43	206	80	66	2.75
            And the five year average:

            Code:
            G	W	L	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	K	R	ER	ERA
            28	12	8	0	191.00	167	17	51	175	85	73	3.46
            It's a pretty techincal fix in a spreadsheet, as I had to avoid the issue of circular definitions, but it results in a larger number of IP, but now the K, BB, H and HR allowed are all now explicitly based on the IP figure.

            As I said earlier, he comes out looking even better than before. My main concern with him, as with any Japanese league pitcher, is how much mileage is already on that arm of his.

            Jim Albright
            Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
            Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
            A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

            Comment


            • #21
              nice work

              Hi Jim--

              The Japanese pitchers are a big topic of discussion over on Baseball Primer. Have you translated (or can you?) any of the other pitchers and hitters heading to the US? I'm thinking mainly of Kuroda and Igawa.

              Thanks.

              Darren

              Comment


              • #22
                Darren,

                I will be doing my article for Baseball Guru now that the season has ended. No promises as to when it's done, as I am busy with more pressing issues. Kuroda is highly likely to be discussed there, since he's a free agent and I believe without checking he's in the group I promised last year to evaluate (young enough and good enough, in short). Igawa isn't a free agent and I have no reliable indication he will be posted. Thus, unless he makes my criteria for a "Player to watch", he won't be discussed.

                Jim Albright
                Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Mischa
                  6' 0", 187 #, right-handed

                  See http://www.baseball-reference.com/bu...suke_Matsuzaka for more details
                  lol he's the same size as me.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by jalbright
                    Darren,

                    I will be doing my article for Baseball Guru now that the season has ended. No promises as to when it's done, as I am busy with more pressing issues. Kuroda is highly likely to be discussed there, since he's a free agent and I believe without checking he's in the group I promised last year to evaluate (young enough and good enough, in short). Igawa isn't a free agent and I have no reliable indication he will be posted. Thus, unless he makes my criteria for a "Player to watch", he won't be discussed.

                    Jim Albright

                    --I've read that Igawa will be/has been posted. Not sure that is 100% accurate, but he would be an interesting addition to a weak FA crop of SP this winter. With so many teams in need, he should be worth some big bucks in both posting fee and contract (although probably no more than 1/3 of what Matsuzaka will bring in either case). With Boros expecting #1 starter money (5/75?!) for Matsuzaka, Igawa might be a better option for most teams.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Until there's an official announcement by the team a la Matsuzaka, any article on whether or not a player will be posted is nothing more than speculation. My Japanese contacts are dubious that Igawa will be posted, which makes sense given the general reluctance of Japanese teams to use this system. After a few years of doing a lot of work based on rumors such as this that didn't pan out, I've decided that unless it's an official statement by the team, I'm not doing the work unless the guy meets the criteria for another category in my article, such as a player to watch. My current schedule reinforces that decision.

                      Jim Albright
                      Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                      Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                      A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        --Whether you want to do a full workup on Igawa or not is, of course, up to you. What is you general impression of him though? My feeling (which could be completley off base) is that he would be a solid middle of the rotation starter in MLB.
                        --Matsuzaka I think is a legit #1, but his posting fee could exceed 30 million and Boros is going to be asking for something in the neghborhood of 5/75 (with the threat of returning to Japan for another season and being a true free agent next year). That rules out all but perhaps a half dozen teams . Even for those who can afford it (and my primary interest is in the Mariners, who could, but probably shouldn't) they might be better off going for Igawa if he is posted. I suspect his posting fee will be less than 10 mil and his salary maybe 3/15.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          I could give you a ballpark answer for hitters without doing the workup, but the way I do pitchers, it's much harder. When it comes to pitchers, the projected ERA comes from a calculation involving the projected hits, walks, homers and strikeouts. He slipped in 2004 and 2005 (here are Igawa's Japanese stats), but rebounded a good bit in 2006. He might well be expected to post a sub 4.00 ERA in the majors at a quick guess, but that's as far as I'll go at this time.

                          Jim Albright
                          Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                          Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                          A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            I like Matsuzaka a lot, but any team that invests $75 to $100 million in him is a team that is run by idiots.

                            Matsuzaka's work load is absolutely scary -- he would win the MLB Pitcher Abuse Points race by a factor of something like 200% over the second-most-abused pitcher.

                            Further, Matsuzaka is clearly desperate to get out of Japan and/or is afraid to pitch another year in Japan, or else he would just pitch one more year over there and come to MLB as a free agent. Why else would he be so willing to lose up to $50 million by coming to MLB as a posted player?

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Pitcher Abuse Points is a system that has long since been debunked as having any predictive value for pegging a pitcher likely to get injured and ALL Japanese pitchers throw the innings he does...none of the imports to the states have burned out due to significant arm troubles...they do the work necessary to condition their arms to handle the increased workload, they pitch in six man rotations, and they pitch backwards (use more off-speed stuff than American pitchers would) so they aren't throwing max effort into every pitch the way US pitchers do.

                              Any free agent pitcher comes attached to some risk and Dice-K is no exception, but he is no riskier than Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito or AJ Burnett (oh wait a second...someone game him 55 million dollars and he got hurt again...were you calling the Blue Jays foolish for going out and getting an ace-caliber arm at some acceptible risk level?) or anyone else a team could sign. The posting fee is not going to be counted by any major league team as a part of the payroll...that's viewed as an investment in the negotiation....so you're looking at committing 50-70 million in guaranteed salary to a pitcher who is in all likelihood going to be one of the best in the big leagues from day one.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                That's nonsense. No matter how you slice it, a $70 million contract plus a $30 million posting fee is a $100 million investment in one player (an every-fifth-day player at that).

                                The list of pitchers who have been known to be abused as teenagers or in their early 20's is long and *quite* predictive of future injury. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are just two such examples, and neither of them were anywhere near as abused as Matsuzaka has been.

                                The question remains: If Matsuzaka is so confident of his abilities and his health, why is he forgoing up to $50 million just to come to MLB one year early? Makes no sense.

                                (P.S. -- Yes, I think the Blue Jays were dumb to give $55 million to a brittle, sub-.500 pitcher like Burnett.)

                                Comment

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