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  • #16
    Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
    I suppose that, based on his MLB success (in his thirties), I'm surprised that Hiroki Kuroda did not make your top 120. Could you discuss him a bit please?

    Incidentally, this is a first-rate update and I'm really looking forward to what else you have cooking!
    Kuroda would be (is--I've got an article in the works on this) one of the trans-Pacific All-Stars, which starts with having a postiive WAA in both MLB and in NPB. However, one thing that absolutely leaps out at you is that his MLB career as a whole is far more impressive than his NPB career. This is quite unusual. It isn't just park effects (Dodger Stadium), either. He has 21.4 WAR and 10.2 WAA in 1319 IP in the majors compared to my estimates of 26.5 WAR and 7.2 WAA in NPB in over 2021.2 IP. His last few years in Japan before MLB don't show any sign of being vastly better than his previous NPB years, though his next to last NPB year might give a hint, but it receded the following year. Ordinarily, I'd expect a NPB pitcher to give up more hits per nine inninngs, walk more players per 9 innings, allow more homers per 9 innings and strikeout less batters per 9 innings in the majors. Kuroda reversed all those expectations:

    Code:
     
    H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
    NPB 8.97 2.24 0.91 6.51
    MLB 8.56 1.99 0.88 6.73
    exp MLB% 1.076 1.072 1.236 0.884
    The expected MLB% figure is what I'd epected to multiply times the NPB figure to arrive ant the MLB figure. If most players were this badly off, the MLB projections would be useless.

    Kuroda doesn't have much of a peak, so even with almost 48 WAR between the two leagues, he doesn't exceed 100 points in the rating system and thus misses the top 120.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by jalbright View Post

      Kuroda would be (is--I've got an article in the works on this) one of the trans-Pacific All-Stars, which starts with having a postiive WAA in both MLB and in NPB. However, one thing that absolutely leaps out at you is that his MLB career as a whole is far more impressive than his NPB career. This is quite unusual. It isn't just park effects (Dodger Stadium), either. He has 21.4 WAR and 10.2 WAA in 1319 IP in the majors compared to my estimates of 26.5 WAR and 7.2 WAA in NPB in over 2021.2 IP. His last few years in Japan before MLB don't show any sign of being vastly better than his previous NPB years, though his next to last NPB year might give a hint, but it receded the following year. Ordinarily, I'd expect a NPB pitcher to give up more hits per nine inninngs, walk more players per 9 innings, allow more homers per 9 innings and strikeout less batters per 9 innings in the majors. Kuroda reversed all those expectations:

      Code:
       
      H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
      NPB 8.97 2.24 0.91 6.51
      MLB 8.56 1.99 0.88 6.73
      exp MLB% 1.076 1.072 1.236 0.884
      The expected MLB% figure is what I'd epected to multiply times the NPB figure to arrive ant the MLB figure. If most players were this badly off, the MLB projections would be useless.

      Kuroda doesn't have much of a peak, so even with almost 48 WAR between the two leagues, he doesn't exceed 100 points in the rating system and thus misses the top 120.
      Thanks for the discussion on Hiroki, as Chadwick mentioned, see him succeed at an advanced age in MLB feels like he could have a HOF career.

      When I previously looked at his B-R page, it seemed like his NPB were quite underwhelming by comparison.

      Appreciate the insights JA.
      Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
      http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

      Comment


      • #18
        It may be that some MLB coach/player showed Kurodai something which clicked for him. It seems to happen a lot with pitchers. Another possibility is having a MLB usage pattern and/or training methods may have been more beneficial to him than NPB ones. Murakami benefitted from being used as a reliever in the majors, but foundered when expected to fulfill the iron horse image of an ace starter in Japan. His arm troubles flared again, and he struggled. NPB historically has trained players until they drop. It may strengthen some, but others may wear out over a season.
        Last edited by jalbright; 03-30-2019, 12:25 PM.
        Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
        Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
        A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

        Comment


        • #19
          Could you please provide your translated WAR and WAA for Nomura and Nagashima? Interested if their MLEs turned out similar to Oh's.
          "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
          "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
          "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
          "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
            Could you please provide your translated WAR and WAA for Nomura and Nagashima? Interested if their MLEs turned out similar to Oh's.
            Haven't gotten them completed just yet.
            Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
            Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
            A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post

              Thanks for the updates, with him being a modern candidate, how do you feel about Shinnosuke Abe, a high quality catcher?
              Abe comes in under 40 WAR, largely because his years at first don't impress me for the majors for a guy that age. His batting slash line translates to 260/ .321/ .414 in 7011 PA. That's not the kind of guy you move to 1B when he can't catch. He retires. The power reduction and that issue kill his case as I see it.
              Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
              Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
              A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
                Could you please provide your translated WAR and WAA for Nomura and Nagashima? Interested if their MLEs turned out similar to Oh's.
                Code:
                 
                Player WAA WAR PA
                Nagashima 52.6 87.6 10469
                Nomura 40.4 74.2 10092
                Basically, the guys I liked before came through fine again. Koji Yamamoto is a better case when I can do more to evaluate his defense. Yutaka Fukumoto is a tough case--on the surface, he looks good, but he had bad last seasons plus 2 and 4 years before it. It's hard to peg where to end his career, and that makes the case harder to evaluate.
                Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Here are the guys who I think are HOFers. with the possible exception of Fukumoto for the reasons set out above. The last category is to the rating system I use in the Musings thread, where 125 is the clearly in mark.

                  Code:
                   
                  Player war well rating
                  sadaharu oh 119.8 12612 226.19293
                  shigeo Nagashima 87.6 10469 171.26424
                  hiromichi ochiai 74.6 9647 148.94727
                  isao harimoto 91.3 12169 172.83668
                  katsuya nomura 74.2 10192 146.40144
                  which yamammoto 75.3 9428 151.00718
                  yutaka fukumoto 68.8 11283 132.46154
                  My solution with Fukumoto is to drop his last two seasons, when he was part time in npb
                  Last edited by jalbright; 07-23-2019, 12:50 PM.
                  Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                  Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                  A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Jim, I was perusing the guru site a couple weeks ago and couldn't find the MLE's on anyone but Oh. Thought I remembered you had more. Could be wrong.
                    "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
                      Jim, I was perusing the guru site a couple weeks ago and couldn't find the MLE's on anyone but Oh. Thought I remembered you had more. Could be wrong.
                      Here they are:
                      http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/an...lbright25.html
                      http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/an...lbright30.html
                      http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/an...lbright36.html
                      http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/an...lbright37.html
                      http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/an...lbright39.html
                      Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                      Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                      A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Thank you sir.
                        "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          For anyone interested in Yoshimoto Tsutsugo, here's his MLEs from 2014:

                          Code:
                           
                          Year G AB H 2B 3B HR BB avg ob pct slg
                          2014 130 468 132 27 4 15 43 0.282 0.343 0.453
                          2015 157 566 163 31 2 16 61 0.288 0.357 0.434
                          2016 151 531 160 31 7 30 80 0.301 0.393 0.558
                          2017 163 590 156 36 0 20 88 0.264 0.359 0.425
                          2018 160 569 159 38 2 27 75 0.279 0.363 0.492
                          2019 152 537 136 27 0 20 82 0.253 0.352 0.417
                          As an OF, his OBP is fine. However, other than 2016 and 2018, his power is low for a corner OF. He's no speedster, and I doubt his defense is special. Looks like a reserve OF in the majors to me.
                          Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                          Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                          A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            So more like a poor man's Shin-Soo Choo than a poor man's Hideki Matsui?

                            Still, for a mere $6 million/year, and in his prime, I'd say the Rays will get their money's worth out of this signing.

                            Thanks, Jim!
                            "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                            "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                            "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                            "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by jalbright View Post
                              Here are the guys who I think are HOFers. with the possible exception of Fukumoto for the reasons set out above. The last category is to the rating system I use in the Musings thread, where 125 is the clearly in mark.

                              Code:
                               
                              Player war well rating
                              sadaharu oh 119.8 12612 226.19293
                              shigeo Nagashima 87.6 10469 171.26424
                              hiromichi ochiai 74.6 9647 148.94727
                              isao harimoto 91.3 12169 172.83668
                              katsuya nomura 74.2 10192 146.40144
                              which yamammoto 75.3 9428 151.00718
                              yutaka fukumoto 68.8 11283 132.46154
                              My solution with Fukumoto is to drop his last two seasons, when he was part time in npb
                              Comparing against this post...
                              https://www.baseball-fever.com/forum...99#post3512499

                              The 2nd to last player should be Koji Yamamoto (#6)? and looks like he and Fukumoto (#23) MLE to hall level even if some air was taken out of the totals?

                              Do you have an update on Koyama at #64, as I could bump him and add these 2 to my personal hall, or maybe even Masaichi Kaneda at #15?

                              Also, Yu Darvish sports a #51 ranking, adding his ~22 MLB wins, what does Yu need to accomplish yet to make your hall?
                              Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
                              http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                I don't typically think about players until they are done. With guys who come over to MLB, I like to see evidence from the time they were here that they really were as good as the MLEs from Japan suggest when they were in MLB for at least a few years.

                                Don't have anything new to say about Koyama.

                                Koji Yamamoto is the next to last player. I'd take him and Fukumoto. Fukumoto is not a power hitter, so he translates better than many ahead of him in NPB history.
                                Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                                Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                                A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                                Comment

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