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  • #16
    Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
    I suppose that, based on his MLB success (in his thirties), I'm surprised that Hiroki Kuroda did not make your top 120. Could you discuss him a bit please?

    Incidentally, this is a first-rate update and I'm really looking forward to what else you have cooking!
    Kuroda would be (is--I've got an article in the works on this) one of the trans-Pacific All-Stars, which starts with having a postiive WAA in both MLB and in NPB. However, one thing that absolutely leaps out at you is that his MLB career as a whole is far more impressive than his NPB career. This is quite unusual. It isn't just park effects (Dodger Stadium), either. He has 21.4 WAR and 10.2 WAA in 1319 IP in the majors compared to my estimates of 26.5 WAR and 7.2 WAA in NPB in over 2021.2 IP. His last few years in Japan before MLB don't show any sign of being vastly better than his previous NPB years, though his next to last NPB year might give a hint, but it receded the following year. Ordinarily, I'd expect a NPB pitcher to give up more hits per nine inninngs, walk more players per 9 innings, allow more homers per 9 innings and strikeout less batters per 9 innings in the majors. Kuroda reversed all those expectations:

    Code:
     
    H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
    NPB 8.97 2.24 0.91 6.51
    MLB 8.56 1.99 0.88 6.73
    exp MLB% 1.076 1.072 1.236 0.884
    The expected MLB% figure is what I'd epected to multiply times the NPB figure to arrive ant the MLB figure. If most players were this badly off, the MLB projections would be useless.

    Kuroda doesn't have much of a peak, so even with almost 48 WAR between the two leagues, he doesn't exceed 100 points in the rating system and thus misses the top 120.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by jalbright View Post

      Kuroda would be (is--I've got an article in the works on this) one of the trans-Pacific All-Stars, which starts with having a postiive WAA in both MLB and in NPB. However, one thing that absolutely leaps out at you is that his MLB career as a whole is far more impressive than his NPB career. This is quite unusual. It isn't just park effects (Dodger Stadium), either. He has 21.4 WAR and 10.2 WAA in 1319 IP in the majors compared to my estimates of 26.5 WAR and 7.2 WAA in NPB in over 2021.2 IP. His last few years in Japan before MLB don't show any sign of being vastly better than his previous NPB years, though his next to last NPB year might give a hint, but it receded the following year. Ordinarily, I'd expect a NPB pitcher to give up more hits per nine inninngs, walk more players per 9 innings, allow more homers per 9 innings and strikeout less batters per 9 innings in the majors. Kuroda reversed all those expectations:

      Code:
       
      H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
      NPB 8.97 2.24 0.91 6.51
      MLB 8.56 1.99 0.88 6.73
      exp MLB% 1.076 1.072 1.236 0.884
      The expected MLB% figure is what I'd epected to multiply times the NPB figure to arrive ant the MLB figure. If most players were this badly off, the MLB projections would be useless.

      Kuroda doesn't have much of a peak, so even with almost 48 WAR between the two leagues, he doesn't exceed 100 points in the rating system and thus misses the top 120.
      Thanks for the discussion on Hiroki, as Chadwick mentioned, see him succeed at an advanced age in MLB feels like he could have a HOF career.

      When I previously looked at his B-R page, it seemed like his NPB were quite underwhelming by comparison.

      Appreciate the insights JA.
      Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
      http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

      Comment


      • #18
        It may be that some MLB coach/player showed Kurodai something which clicked for him. It seems to happen a lot with pitchers. Another possibility is having a MLB usage pattern and/or training methods may have been more beneficial to him than NPB ones. Murakami benefitted from being used as a reliever in the majors, but foundered when expected to fulfill the iron horse image of an ace starter in Japan. His arm troubles flared again, and he struggled. NPB historically has trained players until they drop. It may strengthen some, but others may wear out over a season.
        Last edited by jalbright; 03-30-2019, 12:25 PM.
        Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
        Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
        A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

        Comment


        • #19
          Could you please provide your translated WAR and WAA for Nomura and Nagashima? Interested if their MLEs turned out similar to Oh's.
          "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
          "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
          "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
          "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
            Could you please provide your translated WAR and WAA for Nomura and Nagashima? Interested if their MLEs turned out similar to Oh's.
            Haven't gotten them completed just yet.
            Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
            Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
            A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

            Comment

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