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  • Jar of Flies
    replied
    Originally posted by jalbright View Post
    I don't typically think about players until they are done. With guys who come over to MLB, I like to see evidence from the time they were here that they really were as good as the MLEs from Japan suggest when they were in MLB for at least a few years.

    Don't have anything new to say about Koyama.

    Koji Yamamoto is the next to last player. I'd take him and Fukumoto. Fukumoto is not a power hitter, so he translates better than many ahead of him in NPB history.
    Thanks Jim.

    Leave a comment:


  • jalbright
    replied
    I don't typically think about players until they are done. With guys who come over to MLB, I like to see evidence from the time they were here that they really were as good as the MLEs from Japan suggest when they were in MLB for at least a few years.

    Don't have anything new to say about Koyama.

    Koji Yamamoto is the next to last player. I'd take him and Fukumoto. Fukumoto is not a power hitter, so he translates better than many ahead of him in NPB history.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jar of Flies
    replied
    Originally posted by jalbright View Post
    Here are the guys who I think are HOFers. with the possible exception of Fukumoto for the reasons set out above. The last category is to the rating system I use in the Musings thread, where 125 is the clearly in mark.

    Code:
     
    Player war well rating
    sadaharu oh 119.8 12612 226.19293
    shigeo Nagashima 87.6 10469 171.26424
    hiromichi ochiai 74.6 9647 148.94727
    isao harimoto 91.3 12169 172.83668
    katsuya nomura 74.2 10192 146.40144
    which yamammoto 75.3 9428 151.00718
    yutaka fukumoto 68.8 11283 132.46154
    My solution with Fukumoto is to drop his last two seasons, when he was part time in npb
    Comparing against this post...
    https://www.baseball-fever.com/forum...99#post3512499

    The 2nd to last player should be Koji Yamamoto (#6)? and looks like he and Fukumoto (#23) MLE to hall level even if some air was taken out of the totals?

    Do you have an update on Koyama at #64, as I could bump him and add these 2 to my personal hall, or maybe even Masaichi Kaneda at #15?

    Also, Yu Darvish sports a #51 ranking, adding his ~22 MLB wins, what does Yu need to accomplish yet to make your hall?

    Leave a comment:


  • Chadwick
    replied
    So more like a poor man's Shin-Soo Choo than a poor man's Hideki Matsui?

    Still, for a mere $6 million/year, and in his prime, I'd say the Rays will get their money's worth out of this signing.

    Thanks, Jim!

    Leave a comment:


  • jalbright
    replied
    For anyone interested in Yoshimoto Tsutsugo, here's his MLEs from 2014:

    Code:
     
    Year G AB H 2B 3B HR BB avg ob pct slg
    2014 130 468 132 27 4 15 43 0.282 0.343 0.453
    2015 157 566 163 31 2 16 61 0.288 0.357 0.434
    2016 151 531 160 31 7 30 80 0.301 0.393 0.558
    2017 163 590 156 36 0 20 88 0.264 0.359 0.425
    2018 160 569 159 38 2 27 75 0.279 0.363 0.492
    2019 152 537 136 27 0 20 82 0.253 0.352 0.417
    As an OF, his OBP is fine. However, other than 2016 and 2018, his power is low for a corner OF. He's no speedster, and I doubt his defense is special. Looks like a reserve OF in the majors to me.

    Leave a comment:


  • bluesky5
    replied
    Thank you sir.

    Leave a comment:


  • jalbright
    replied
    Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
    Jim, I was perusing the guru site a couple weeks ago and couldn't find the MLE's on anyone but Oh. Thought I remembered you had more. Could be wrong.
    Here they are:
    http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/an...lbright25.html
    http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/an...lbright30.html
    http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/an...lbright36.html
    http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/an...lbright37.html
    http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/an...lbright39.html

    Leave a comment:


  • bluesky5
    replied
    Jim, I was perusing the guru site a couple weeks ago and couldn't find the MLE's on anyone but Oh. Thought I remembered you had more. Could be wrong.

    Leave a comment:


  • jalbright
    replied
    Here are the guys who I think are HOFers. with the possible exception of Fukumoto for the reasons set out above. The last category is to the rating system I use in the Musings thread, where 125 is the clearly in mark.

    Code:
     
    Player war well rating
    sadaharu oh 119.8 12612 226.19293
    shigeo Nagashima 87.6 10469 171.26424
    hiromichi ochiai 74.6 9647 148.94727
    isao harimoto 91.3 12169 172.83668
    katsuya nomura 74.2 10192 146.40144
    which yamammoto 75.3 9428 151.00718
    yutaka fukumoto 68.8 11283 132.46154
    My solution with Fukumoto is to drop his last two seasons, when he was part time in npb
    Last edited by jalbright; 07-23-2019, 12:50 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • jalbright
    replied
    Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
    Could you please provide your translated WAR and WAA for Nomura and Nagashima? Interested if their MLEs turned out similar to Oh's.
    Code:
     
    Player WAA WAR PA
    Nagashima 52.6 87.6 10469
    Nomura 40.4 74.2 10092
    Basically, the guys I liked before came through fine again. Koji Yamamoto is a better case when I can do more to evaluate his defense. Yutaka Fukumoto is a tough case--on the surface, he looks good, but he had bad last seasons plus 2 and 4 years before it. It's hard to peg where to end his career, and that makes the case harder to evaluate.

    Leave a comment:


  • jalbright
    replied
    Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post

    Thanks for the updates, with him being a modern candidate, how do you feel about Shinnosuke Abe, a high quality catcher?
    Abe comes in under 40 WAR, largely because his years at first don't impress me for the majors for a guy that age. His batting slash line translates to 260/ .321/ .414 in 7011 PA. That's not the kind of guy you move to 1B when he can't catch. He retires. The power reduction and that issue kill his case as I see it.

    Leave a comment:


  • jalbright
    replied
    Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
    Could you please provide your translated WAR and WAA for Nomura and Nagashima? Interested if their MLEs turned out similar to Oh's.
    Haven't gotten them completed just yet.

    Leave a comment:


  • Chadwick
    replied
    Could you please provide your translated WAR and WAA for Nomura and Nagashima? Interested if their MLEs turned out similar to Oh's.

    Leave a comment:


  • jalbright
    replied
    It may be that some MLB coach/player showed Kurodai something which clicked for him. It seems to happen a lot with pitchers. Another possibility is having a MLB usage pattern and/or training methods may have been more beneficial to him than NPB ones. Murakami benefitted from being used as a reliever in the majors, but foundered when expected to fulfill the iron horse image of an ace starter in Japan. His arm troubles flared again, and he struggled. NPB historically has trained players until they drop. It may strengthen some, but others may wear out over a season.
    Last edited by jalbright; 03-30-2019, 12:25 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jar of Flies
    replied
    Originally posted by jalbright View Post

    Kuroda would be (is--I've got an article in the works on this) one of the trans-Pacific All-Stars, which starts with having a postiive WAA in both MLB and in NPB. However, one thing that absolutely leaps out at you is that his MLB career as a whole is far more impressive than his NPB career. This is quite unusual. It isn't just park effects (Dodger Stadium), either. He has 21.4 WAR and 10.2 WAA in 1319 IP in the majors compared to my estimates of 26.5 WAR and 7.2 WAA in NPB in over 2021.2 IP. His last few years in Japan before MLB don't show any sign of being vastly better than his previous NPB years, though his next to last NPB year might give a hint, but it receded the following year. Ordinarily, I'd expect a NPB pitcher to give up more hits per nine inninngs, walk more players per 9 innings, allow more homers per 9 innings and strikeout less batters per 9 innings in the majors. Kuroda reversed all those expectations:

    Code:
     
    H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9
    NPB 8.97 2.24 0.91 6.51
    MLB 8.56 1.99 0.88 6.73
    exp MLB% 1.076 1.072 1.236 0.884
    The expected MLB% figure is what I'd epected to multiply times the NPB figure to arrive ant the MLB figure. If most players were this badly off, the MLB projections would be useless.

    Kuroda doesn't have much of a peak, so even with almost 48 WAR between the two leagues, he doesn't exceed 100 points in the rating system and thus misses the top 120.
    Thanks for the discussion on Hiroki, as Chadwick mentioned, see him succeed at an advanced age in MLB feels like he could have a HOF career.

    When I previously looked at his B-R page, it seemed like his NPB were quite underwhelming by comparison.

    Appreciate the insights JA.

    Leave a comment:

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