Yu Darvish

[Agente Libre]

I don't understand a lot of the logic behind the "Darvish is coming!" and "Darvish might get $100 million!" speculation on the 'net. Unless Darvish explicitly says he wants to play MLB and makes it clear he'll sign for less than Matsuzaka got, it all seems unlikely in the short term.

Matsuzaka got huge money because he was only a year away from free agency and could have simply played out his last year in Japan before heading to MLB. But MLB teams would have no such reason to throw $50 million or $100 million at Darvish on top of an assuredly huge posting fee. Darvish's only other option would be to play in Japan for 4-5 more years for $2 million per year.

[jalbright]

I'll believe he's posted more than two years before he hits free agency (next season will be well before that under current rules) when I see it made official. Unless I see quotes from the team and/or Darvish indicating it's going to happen sooner than that, I will continue to regard a very early posting as merely a figment of a vivid imagination.

[heavesrock]

If ever, he won't be posted for a few years, when is closer to free agency.

[SouthwestAmAZins]

This OTL aired on ESPN a couple of weeks ago:

http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/video/videopage?videoId=3392671&categoryId=2521705

Sounds like Darvish maybe in the MLB sooner than some folks think.

[GordonGecko]

It frosts me up something fierce to see this kind of thinking. If NPB actually thought that they wouldn't have enough "big league" talent to survive in the near future, wouldn't you think that they'd stop the posting of free agents and try to come up with some other business plan?

I don't think it would frost you up if you actully watched the "Zen of Bobby V". Bobby Valentine is an activist for keeping the Japanese leagues strong and he's right when he says that MLB is now not only taking the top layer, but working on the 2nd and 3rd layers of talent. NBP is generally mismanaged and the owners don't always do what's best for the game. The Chiba Marines tend to be an exception, but even then they refused to launch a minor league team to foster talent.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Pretty soon they won't have any big league talent left.

It frosts me up something fierce to see this kind of thinking. If NPB actually thought that they wouldn't have enough "big league" talent to survive in the near future, wouldn't you think that they'd stop the posting of free agents and try to come up with some other business plan?

[GordonGecko]

I saw Yu Darvish pitch in the ESPN documentary "The Zen of Bobby V" about Bobby Valentine in Japan (which I highly recommend, check your local listings). He's a pretty good pitcher, but it's sad to see all the best talent jump from the Japanese NBP. Pretty soon they won't have any big league talent left.

[heavesrock]

An idea from a Chicago Cubs scout in SK was to have Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea merge to form one Pan-Asian major league. Such a league would be able to compete with MLB. One problem is that the Japanese are rather arrogant and have this idea that they would win every game by 20 against the other leagues. This is proven untrue by the Asia Series games, but Japan is rather cocky. The management of the leagues is stagnant. They don't do anything. They sit back and use the "If you build it, they will come" marketing strategy. In today's world, that rarely works.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

From what I have read, it seems as if the Japanese and Koreans need to change their business practices in order to compete for players and keep the players in Japan and Korea. Their systems seems rather archaic.

Japan and Korea really need to partner up, perhaps some kind of league merger, to become a stronger larger league.

[Richard]

From what I have read, it seems as if the Japanese and Koreans need to change their business practices in order to compete for players and keep the players in Japan and Korea. Their systems seems rather archaic.

[heavesrock]

I actually would be very disappointed if Darvish came to America. I love Japanese baseball and foreign baseball, and I hate it when MLB comes and steals all the stars. While NPB is still very popular in Japan, losing it's will eventually end its popularity. It makes me sick to my stomach when I hear about all the good MLB is doing in Japan growing baseball. What? Baseball is more popular in Japan than in the US before MLB came.

Much of the blame can be put on NPB for the players defecting. The league is horribly mismanaged, with very few of the owners actually knowing how to run a baseball team. The teams are owned by large corporations who use the team as an advertisement really. The teams agree on nothing. Teams can't even agree on which kind of ball to use. The home team always supplies the baseballs, so the balls used may vary from game to game. Japan likes to view itself as the group, working together, while MLB is the group of entrepreneurs working separately. In fact, it is the other way around. NPB still has a kind of "What is good for the Giants is good for the league" mentality, although it is starting to get away from that.

Japan is really undermining itself by selling top stars to America and hosting MLB opening days in Japan while the Pacific is opening its season a few miles away. Talk about destroying any publicity opening day may have gotten.

NPB really needs to start working hard to generate credibility and save itself. Where is the interactive website that MLB has? Where is the online game broadcasting? Where are the big TV contracts? Where is the international exposure? NPB needs to establish itself as the MLB of Asia. A good first step would be taking China.

Just to clarify something I saw earlier in this thread, 4 NPB teams turned a profit for 2007. The Yomiuri Giants, Hanshin Tigers, Nippon Ham Fighters, and the Rakuten Golden Eagles.

[Richard]

There is an excellent Yu Darvish article on the front page of ESPN.com. Apparently his father wants him to play in the U.S. He and his father are promoting baseball in Iran.

[Pere]

Go here for Baseball America's assessment of Darvish as an MLB prospect. In part,

Had Darvish signed with a major league club last offseason, I would have ranked him as the third-best prospect in baseball, behind Reds outfielder Jay Bruce and Rays third baseman Evan Longoria. I'd give him the nod as the best young player not under control to a U.S. team, ahead of Cuban infielder Yulieski Gourriel.

[ShawnC]

I found an article relating to this issue on The Economist. See the new thread I started about it for the link: http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=75791

[stejay]

A lot of Japanese fans are unhappy with their stars going to the MLB.

Ed

That is kinda obvious. No-one likes losing their best talents.