2021 World Baseball Classic

[ExtraInningsUK]

Unfortunately, MLB does not view Europe in the same way European baseball fans do. To them, Israel is one of the most lucrative possible countries with its large community in the U.S. Would not be surprised if many in MLB are unaware that it is part of CEB.

Wouldn't it be nice to just have open expansion? Most federations, however, would not be able to compete as the costs of attending a tournament are huge and MLB gives each WBC team a stipend. Without that, only a few teams paying their own expenses would be able to compete and it is doubtful most stadia would consider hosting unless its national team was playing as attendance for international games without a home team is usually terrible. It is in the interests of the WBSC to grow the game as it is a federation, not a corporation, but this would be a big expenditure. And the only goal for MLB is to grow new markets in which to sell its product.

[SouthwestAmAZins]

Obviously, I am not privy to the inner workings & financials of the WBC. However, there are baseball only events that are hosted by non-WBC nations where other non-WBC nations participate in annually or biennially. We have followed these events year after year and they have been held on different continents with several nontraditional teams. These events are held with no WBC involvement & limited resources, but they are still held. Some governments supposedly subsidize hosting sporting events and that might be the case with some of these non-WBC events.

The WBSC is not a corporation, but they are a sanctioning body that can add value to these events that are not currently related to the WBC, by assigning more rankings points to the events and creating more incentive for non-WBC nations to participate. I believe that there are enough resources & willing participants to cobble together an open prequalifying WBC event. However, I also understand that it is MLB’s prerogative to run the WBC the way they see fit, even though some MLB’s executives were surprised at how successful the event turned out to be.

[ExtraInningsUK]

You are absolutely right about the role of the WBSC and it is our belief that the organisation should led more support with the planning and execution of events like the East Africa Baseball Championship, Micronesian Classic, etc. A little help with these events would go a long way to make especially the former more successful. One of the differences between a pre-qualifier and most of the tournaments referenced, however, is that these tournaments are usually quite local, whereas a prequalifier would almost certainly have to include teams from a wider region. Regardless of MLB's interest, we can definitely agree that the WBSC ought to help out the tournaments you describe more.

[SouthwestAmAZins]

Yes, it is difficult for 2nd & 3rd tier teams to play anyone from outside of their local regions. Perhaps, some existing regional tournaments can be assigned an additional purpose of being a WBC pre-qualifier; since they are already funded.

[ExtraInningsUK]

That's probably quite a bit more likely and would be good to see. Sri Lanka has lamented that there is no revenue sharing for teams outside the WBC and WBCQs as well, further hammering home the points made above.

[SouthwestAmAZins]

Based on the previous actions of the WBC Steering Committee, I expect the earliest WBC Qualifier to be held no sooner than December 2019 in Taiwan. In November 2012, Taiwan & Panama hosted WBC Qualifiers just four months before the main event. However, in 2016 three of the four Qualifiers were held 12-13 months before the WBC. Due to their previous hosting experience, the favorites are Mexico (March '16) and Taiwan (November '12) . In 2016, the WBC Steering Committee wanted at least six months between the Final WBC Qualifer and the WBC. If the WBCSC wants to maintain a similar time table to the previous event, then the window for the 2021 WBC Qualifiers will be between November 2019 and September 2020. However, with the 2019 Premier 12 likely to be held in the month of November, Taiwan should push back their Qualifier to December 2019. Mexico and other potential hosting candidates Nicaragua & Panama would likely host in March 2020. While Canada could host no later than September 2020. Below are my picks for candidates for the 2021 WBC Qualifier hosts in order of likelihood & possible dates:

Taiwan	100%	December 2019- February 2020
Mexico	100%	February 2020- March 2020
Panama	51%	February 2020- March 2020
Nicaragua	50%	February 2020- March 2020
United States	49%	September 2020
Canada	48%	May 2020- September 2020
China	1%	December 2019- September 2020
Germany, New Zealand	0.3%	December 2019- September 2020
Brazil, Czech Republic, Philippines, Spain	0.15%	December 2019- September 2020
France, Great Britain, Pakistan, South Africa	0.07%	December 2019- September 2020

[ExtraInningsUK]

Great work in considering the possible timing outcomes. Will be very interesting to see who the hosts are other than Taiwan and México, who do seem to be shoo-ins. Would the WBSC consider both Nicaragua and Panamá? It does seem certain that one of the two will host, but three qualifiers in Central America seems highly unlikely. Two in Asia also seems unlikely, eliminating China (while Pakistan does not have a MLB-certified field and is, therefore, ineligible). South Africa does have international level fields, but seems too remote. Our guess is US or Germany, but they are guesses.

[SouthwestAmAZins]

Expanding on my previous post:

• Canada has more than enough infrastructure & resources to host a round the WBC Qualifiers. However, based on their reluctance to host in 2012, they are not a slam dunk to host. Perhaps, the improved overall quality of WBCQ competition may change Canada's position on hosting.
• China has some infrastructure & resources to host and I don't doubt that they could plan, green light a project, build, organize and host faster than any other hosting candidate; but I don't expect them to.
• Germany did a very good job of hosting in 2012, but had no interest doing again in 2016. I expect Germany to not place a bid for the 2020 WBCQs.

[SouthwestAmAZins]

Here is a moderately aggressive WBC expansion plan:

	2006	2009	2013	2017	2021	2025	2029	2033	2037	2041	2045	2049	2053
WBC	16	16	16	16	16	16	20	20	20	20	20	20	24
WBCQ	**	**	16	16	20	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
Pre-WBCQ	**	**	**	**	**	**	**	8	12	16	20	24	24
Total Teams	16	16	28	28	32	36	40	44	48	52	56	60	64

[ExtraInningsUK]

Good points raised regarding hosts. Canada and México both have been disadvantaged in various ways during the WBC and it would be great to see Canada feel empowered to become a core part of the organisation. Were it to host a qualifier, its team would also be absolutely loaded.

Agreed on China, plus we feel it is very unlikely that there would be two qualifiers in Asia, simply as that would mean sending European teams there. Agree with your suggestions in No. 111.

Believe you are right about Germany as well. In addition to the point you raised, it seems that DBV is lacking real drive at the moment and have hit a plateau in terms of development and results.

Our first reaction to the expansion plan was that it seemed somewhat aggressive, however, it follows a similar trajectory to FIFA's expansion and it is quite possible we will see largescale expansion. An issue down the road that currently is not particularly problematic, however, will simply be when to play so many games, as MLB will never break for other competitions. This is why we feel that the main body may stay the same more-or-less permanently, with qualifiers expanding both in number and with an additional level.

[SouthwestAmAZins]

Our first reaction to the expansion plan was that it seemed somewhat aggressive, however, it follows a similar trajectory to FIFA's expansion and it is quite possible we will see largescale expansion. An issue down the road that currently is not particularly problematic, however, will simply be when to play so many games, as MLB will never break for other competitions. This is why we feel that the main body may stay the same more-or-less permanently, with qualifiers expanding both in number and with an additional level.

Here is how the WBC tournament duration has changed over four events in March:
WBC_Duration.png

The WBC has had a tournament duration range of 17-19 days and a maximum of 5 games in one day.

[SouthwestAmAZins]

A twenty-four team tournament may not look possible at this time, but the timetable in post #114 has this happening 34 years from now. Below are two potential formats with 24 teams that would have a maximum duration of 22 days:

Format A:

• Six groups of four teams, Pools A-F where each team plays 3 games, for a Pool total of 6 Round Robin games with a 7th scheduled tie-breaker game if necessary.
• Top 2 teams in Pools A,B & C advance to Pool G and top 2 teams in Pools D, E & F advance to Pool H.
• Second round will be two groups of six teams where each team carries over one result from the first round and plays 4 games in the second round.
• Each Second round pool will have total of 12 round robin games with a 13th scheduled tie-breaker game if necessary.
• Top 3 teams advance to the single elimination Championship Round.
• Championship Round format is:
  • Day 1 - Game 1 - G3 vs H2
  • Day 1 - Game 2 - H3 vs G2
  • Day 2 - Game 3 - Game 1 Winner vs G1
  • Day 3 - Game 4 - Game 2 Winner vs H1
  • Day 4 - Game 5 - Game 3 Winner vs Game 4 Winner
• First round minimum/maximum is 36-42 games.
• Second round minimum/maximum is 24-26 games.
• Total Tournament minimum/maximum is 65-73 games.

Format B:

• Four groups of six teams, Pools A-D where each team plays 5 games, for a Pool total of 15 Round Robin games with a 16th scheduled tie-breaker game if necessary.
• Top 3 teams in Pools A & B advance to Pool E and top 3 teams in Pools C & D advance to Pool F.
• Second round will be two groups of six teams where each team carries over two results from the first round and plays 3 games in the second round.
• Each Second round pool will have total of 9 round robin games with a 10th scheduled tie-breaker game if necessary.
• Top 3 teams advance to the single elimination Championship Round.
• Championship Round format is:
  • Day 1 - Game 1 - E3 vs F2
  • Day 1 - Game 2 - F3 vs E2
  • Day 2 - Game 3 - Game 1 Winner vs E1
  • Day 3 - Game 4 - Game 2 Winner vs F1
  • Day 4 - Game 5 - Game 3 Winner vs Game 4 Winner
• First round minimum/maximum is 60-64 games.
• Second round minimum/maximum is 18-20 games.
• Total Tournament minimum/maximum is 83-89 games.

Here is the possible duration of these formats, with a maximum of 7 games in one day in plan A and 8 games in plan B:
WBC_DurationX.png

[ExtraInningsUK]

This is really excellent work. Creating tournament brackets is no easy task and both of these options seem more realistic when explained above. Really nice use of graphics to make your points-we are definitely coming around to expansion at the pace you suggest.

[SouthwestAmAZins]

Thanks for the compliments, I personally would prefer Format A over B.

[Unit312J]

I love your guys optimistic outlooks for this tournament. I hope you guys are correct and it continues to grow in the way you guys hope. Just remember, WBSC has control over international tournaments. WBC is put on with their permission. WBSC is focused on 2 things...Olympics and Premier 12. I have not heard any discuss at all regarding the next Classic. And I would expect next to nothing until after the Olympics, or at least after the Olympic field is set in March 2020 with the qualifier in Phoenix. That means all your qualifying tournaments will most likely be in October or November of 2020 if that helps your planning thoughts.

If the tournament is held at all..

(Side note...today's announcement from WBSC that all games outside Premier 12 and Classic, so that's good they mentioned the classic, will now be 7 innings, including the U23, U18, and from what I heard a while ago, the Olympics, is to me disgusting)