Oh no, not another stolen base study!!

[sig226]

Yes, it's another stolen base study. Obviously, I'm new here, but I searched to see if what interested me was posted before. I didn't see it.

A look at the ERV charts shows that with a runner on first and no out, the steal must be successful about 78% to be a break even proposition. This excludes Rickey Henderson and Lou Brock as base running threats.

It does not seem to tell the whole story, though.

A further look at the ERV's shows what seems to be a conflict: with a runner on first and one out, the steal need only be successful 65% of the time. This seems counter intuitive, but it isn't. The ERV difference between 0 out and 1 out is much greater than the difference between 1 out and 2 out.

It still does not tell the whole story, because we can all see that when a steal is expected, the state of the game changes. Infielders shift. P,C,1B, and SS are distracted. The choice of pitches is limited. The ERV just lumps all runner on 1st situations together and says 'that's that.' No it isn't.

I want to study the ERV difference between when there is a base stealer at first and when there is a runner who is not a threat to steal. To do this, I'll have to establish exactly what is a threat to steal. This can't be based on announcers saying so. It should be based on whether the opposing manager shifts the infield.

I will then have to gather new ERV data differentiating between the stealers and the non stealers.

Any thoughts on how to do this, and does it seem a reasonable study?

[Ubiquitous]

We have talked about it before, look for a thread in this group entitled stolen base metrics are useless by Cubbieinexile.

As for the study take a look over on retrosheet, in their research section. Its not exactly what you are looking for but a study was done in which the writer grouped baserunners into three groups, the very good basestealers, the middlegroup, and lowest basestealers. He then looked at what impact those runners had on his fellow hitters. While it won't answer your questions exactly perhaps it will show you a way to organize your study.

[sig226]

We have talked about it before, look for a thread in this group entitled stolen base metrics are useless by Cubbieinexile.

As for the study take a look over on retrosheet, in their research section. Its not exactly what you are looking for but a study was done in which the writer grouped baserunners into three groups, the very good basestealers, the middlegroup, and lowest basestealers. He then looked at what impact those runners had on his fellow hitters. While it won't answer your questions exactly perhaps it will show you a way to organize your study.

Thanks, I'll check them out.