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  • Plate Appearances or Outs

    I am wondering about opinions and specific reasons for either using plate appearances or outs when guaging in offensive statistics.

    I prefer to use outs because I think it is a better guage. I would think it marks accuracy and takes out more biasness, but I could be wrong.

    Also, I am wondering about the the biases in these two measurements.
    unofficial Cardinals
    Playing HardballUpdated 12-06-07

    Congratulations Cardinals in 2006 World Series
    Winners in 1926, 1931, 1934, 1942, 1944, 1946, 1964, 1967, 1982, & 2006

  • #2
    The best way is a happy medium between the two. Outs tends to overcompensate for OBP, but PA tends to undercompensate for OBP. That's from my experience.

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    • #3
      Outs or anything can be used if everything is known. You could use games, sunny days, really anything as long it is known and you are not doing projections.

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      • #4
        To me it would come down to what you are trying to compare against. SLG and BA are best against at bats while OBP is best against PA's.
        Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball

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        • #5
          You wouldn't compare OBP, SLG, or AVG to anything. They are already ratios. IF we compared SLG to PA the formula would (TB/AB)/PA which would be meaningless.

          Now then you could weight OBP, SLG, and AVG because that would basically be turning a ratio stat into counting stat.

          For instance SLG would look like (TB/AB)*AB So if AB was 500 and you had 200 total bases then you would find out that you 200 total bases per 500 at bats. Duh right? But that means you could then play around with the numbers. How many total bases if I had 600 at bats, if I had 300, and so forth.

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          • #6
            Outs. You only get 2 per side to score your runs (if you have 3, your side is over). They without question have a value.
            Johnson and now Goligoski gone.
            I hope that's all.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by 538280
              The best way is a happy medium between the two. Outs tends to overcompensate for OBP, but PA tends to undercompensate for OBP. That's from my experience.
              That's exactly right.

              If we used Runs Created for example,

              RC/Outs overcompensates for OBP

              RC/PA undercompensates for OBP

              So the proper formula should be RC/PA + RCX
              RCX is the extra RC created by your teammates from the extra PA created by the higher OBP.

              The problem is, should RCX be calculated at Replacement Player Level? Average Player Level? The Level of the actual player?

              Or do we just take a number somewhere between RC/PA & RC/Outs?

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Joltin' Joe
                Or do we just take a number somewhere between RC/PA & RC/Outs?
                That's what I like to do, but I think we should sway a little more towards outs because outs after all are what contributes to taking away runs. We should really have two elements of evaluating hitters-helping his team to score runs (RC) and hurting his team's run scoring chances (outs).

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by 538280
                  That's what I like to do, but I think we should sway a little more towards outs because outs after all are what contributes to taking away runs. We should really have two elements of evaluating hitters-helping his team to score runs (RC) and hurting his team's run scoring chances (outs).
                  Yes that would probably be less complicated than RC/PA + RCX and just as accurate. Hell of a lot more realistic than that stupid stat RC/27.

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                  • #10
                    Anyone here use HR/PA instead of HR/AB ? If so, how do you explain punishing someone who walks a ton?

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948
                      Anyone here use HR/PA instead of HR/AB ? If so, how do you explain punishing someone who walks a ton?
                      That's a tough one. I see your point about punishing someone that walked a ton, who only had 8399 AB(I have this memorized thanks to you Sultan)....

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                      • #12
                        And baseball reference just changed it to 8398 a little while ago. Brought up his page one night and somethin' just didn't feel right; ya know, like a fork in the spoon section, or a speck of jam in your peanut butter....ok, maybe not like that but still. Can't believe they changed it. For '20 they took away an AB, and credited him with two more walks. Brought his season OBP up 3 points and his season SA up 2 points.

                        Anyway, back to the original question; I know there are times when PA need to be used, but HR/AB is the right way to go, right?

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                        • #13
                          If you want to measure the skill in HR hitting...then yes...you can't show your power if you don't swing.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                            And baseball reference just changed it to 8398 a little while ago. Brought up his page one night and somethin' just didn't feel right; ya know, like a fork in the spoon section, or a speck of jam in your peanut butter....ok, maybe not like that but still. Can't believe they changed it. For '20 they took away an AB, and credited him with two more walks. Brought his season OBP up 3 points and his season SA up 2 points.

                            Anyway, back to the original question; I know there are times when PA need to be used, but HR/AB is the right way to go, right?

                            HR/AB is the only way. I have seen some on the board suggest using, HR/PA, absurd.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post


                              HR/AB is the only way. I have seen some on the board suggest using, HR/PA, absurd.
                              Agreed. That is ridiculous

                              I personally like the TB/batted outs stat I kinda came up with while doing the rrOPS+ project. Slugging Efficiency I called it. I think it tells us something from a different angle.

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