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when the ball is hit into play, by count

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  • when the ball is hit into play, by count

    about 2 months ago there was a link to stats of batting averages when the ball was hit into play.

    if i recall correctly, the stats were broken down to show averages during all 12 batting counts.
    3-0 had the highest average; 0-2, the lowest.

    does anyone know where i can now locate those numbers?
    many thanx.
    "you don't have to burn books to destroy a culture. just get people to stop reading them." -ray bradbury

  • #2
    http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde...ting_by_count/
    Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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    • #3
      To go along with the observation that BABIP is higher in hitting counts and lower with two strikes, I wonder what SLG% on BIP is on/through each count. Probably scales proportionately with BABIP, but it would be interesting if not.
      Beyond The Boxscore (still with some lime)

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      • #4
        See my link, and click on "Tippett". Or, you can get the data from baseball-reference in the leagues pages.
        Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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        • #5
          Using the data from Tippett (via Tango), here are three additional measures:

          SLGBIP -- slugging percentage on balls in play
          BA-noK -- batting average excluding strikeouts
          SLG-noK -- slugging percentage excluding strikeouts
          HR-rate-noK -- homeruns per AB excluding strikeouts

          The noK stats have slightly different meaning between the AT table and THROUGH table.
          Code:
          AT	BABIP	SLGBIP	BA-noK	SLG-noK	HR-rate noK
           3-0	.343	.472	.401	.789	9.0%
           0-0	.311	.398	.341	.555	4.4%
           1-0	.310	.403	.342	.574	4.7%
           3-1	.307	.400	.347	.604	5.7%
           3-2	.303	.393	.334	.552	4.4%
           1-1	.301	.384	.328	.522	3.8%
           2-1	.301	.391	.332	.551	4.4%
           0-1	.299	.375	.321	.487	3.1%
           2-0	.299	.395	.343	.622	6.3%
           2-2	.288	.369	.313	.494	3.5%
           0-2	.282	.355	.297	.432	2.1%
           1-2	.282	.347	.301	.441	2.6%
          					
          					
          THROUGH	BABIP	SLGBIP	BA-noK	SLG-noK	HR-rate-noK
           3-0	.313	.411	.345	.578	4.7%
           3-2	.303	.393	.334	.552	4.4%
           3-1	.303	.394	.336	.567	4.8%
           2-0	.301	.391	.336	.572	5.0%
           1-0	.300	.386	.330	.542	4.3%
           0-0	.299	.382	.327	.523	3.9%
           2-1	.296	.383	.327	.540	4.3%
           1-1	.295	.377	.322	.513	3.8%
           0-1	.294	.373	.318	.494	3.4%
           2-2	.294	.378	.322	.519	3.9%
           1-2	.289	.364	.312	.481	3.2%
           0-2	.287	.359	.308	.463	2.8%
          Some interesting stuff that I need more time to look at. Even discounting strikeouts, hitters counts are an advantage in the following order of importance:

          HR rate (HR after 2-0 almost twice as likely as HR after 0-2)
          SLG BIP (SLG after 3-1 only .040 points better than after 0-2)
          AVG BIP (only.016 points separate worst and best, excluding 3-0)
          Last edited by skyking162; 08-28-2007, 01:34 PM.
          Beyond The Boxscore (still with some lime)

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          • #6
            2 strike counts are a bit misleading in that for the most part the outcomes are mostly similar to other counts. The drawback being that when you swing and miss you don't get another chance while if you have 1 strike on you still get another chance.

            I believe in one of the SABR publications had an article explaining this and showing the data.

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            • #7
              ah, that is the info, exactly.
              many thanx!
              "you don't have to burn books to destroy a culture. just get people to stop reading them." -ray bradbury

              Comment


              • #8
                Ubi -- that's why I removed the strikeouts from the calculations. It still appears that with two strikes hitters have a lower BABIP, SLG, and HR-rate. Of course, the more balls in the count, the better the hitters perform, even with two strikes.

                It makes sense that with two strikes, hitters trade power and BABIP for a lower chance of striking out to end the plate appearance -- choking up, easier swings, "just put the bat on the ball", etc. The numbers support the first half of that assumption. The second half is more complex, as you'd need swing rates, strike-percentages, and perhaps even pitch TLV data because pitchers throw different pitches with two strikes than in other counts.
                Beyond The Boxscore (still with some lime)

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